We are riding a huge wave of sustained growth this month and it’s clear to me that the marketing push from the Football Index is having the desired effect.
If you look at Google Trends it will tell you that the interest in the Football Index has never been higher. That correlates with the numbers of new traders we are seeing on social media, and there has been a huge spike in viewing figures on this site too in late December/January.
This all bodes well and I think the platform deserves to grow, there is still great value to be had and there is a way to go before we reach what I see as the “mature state” of the Football Index.
At “maturity” I see the annual returns being closer to the 20-30% a year for a good trader, more aligned to what a good professional might see in normal sports betting. We won’t be getting the 200%+ returns some of us have enjoyed. And of course, not everyone will win. At the moment you would have to do something pretty damn special to end up behind.
I think for new traders particularly, we have to be aware that the easy money will not come forever. Enjoy it whilst it lasts but don’t let easy gains make you complacent and get you into bad habits.
Someone who has made money in this market is not necessarily a good trader. The strong growth papers over many a crack in logic at the moment.
But when the market does mature, we will all need extremely strong trading and analysis skills to succeed. Now is a great time to learn them in what is a pretty forgiving market.
Rocket Ships
Ousmane Dembele
Two fairly lucky goals for Dembele last night but it was a thrilling dribble through the Levante defence that really caught the eye.
These are the sorts of things you need to be happening for a young talent trying to break through at a big club.
There are some transfer rumours too but these seem more like media gossip fodder than anything that might happen anytime soon.
Although it’s not quite coming through in the performance scores yet, he has what it takes to win and he needs a match winning goal in a game where he completes 90 minutes to be up there. I think that will come before too long.
As is so often the case with youngsters at the moment though, the price is way out ahead of the actual performances. Not a bad hold, but the real value went a long time ago.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
A few big clubs are circling for Wan-Bissaka, notably Manchester United and Chelsea.
So is he any good? Sure, there is plenty to suggest that he could be a strong attacking full back, the stats will support that.
But I’m not going to mess around here: this price is an affront to the Gods themselves.
As a defender, the chances of a transfer being a big media story are fairly low. It would be a B list transfer.
As a performance player, he might have a similar sort of chance of success as a Luke Shaw or other strong full back at a big team.
Shaw is almost a full £1 cheaper and has actually secured his place in the side. Wan-Bissaka needs to make the transfer, adjust to a new club, impress his manager and win his place before he even gets to compete. Crackers.
Sinking Ships
Memphis Depay
I couldn’t see any news for Depay this morning but he was falling hard.
As I write though, he has bounced right back up again. So what gives?
Markets generally respond to new information. So if you are looking around and there is no obvious reason that a price is falling or rising, it is almost always the actions of a single large trader or a trading group.
This could either just be a straight decision to buy or sell, or it could be a shenanigan in an attempt to cause a crash or spike in the player.
The best way of protecting yourself against such things is to always assume you are being messed with and never play into their hands.
This is one reason why I only hold players that have real long term value. If I am happy to hold for a year or more if I need to, nobody can push me off my players and I do not need to over react to such things.
This means I rarely lose money in panic sells or commission. And because the players are quality, if there is a drop, there will almost always be a reason they rise again later.
If you are holding garbage hype picks, you cannot do that and will likely be bullied into following the market.
As for Depay, he remains quality but he is not in the best form. The underlying stats in terms of threat and distribution are still there, but he needs the goals to flow like they did in October/November and for Lyon to get out of this patch of poor form.
Hot Gossip
Krzysztof Piatek
West Ham bids are apparently being rejected and I think the hype around him is such that it will be a bigger club that ends up with his signature.
In early season his goal scoring was so prolific you felt it had to end. He did go off the boil in October but he had another great run in December.
If he really is this good a finisher, you would think a big club could snap him up and he may put away enough goals to more than make up for his poor baseline scores.
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FIT