Young player mania is in full swing and doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
Generally, for the well known ones we are dealing with potentially good players, and the issue is price rather than talent. There are a few exceptions at the higher end where people confuse being good at football with being good on the Football Index. It’s not the same thing.
But on the whole, the Mbappe’s, the Rashford’s, the Sancho’s, Dembele’s and the Vinicius Juniors have potential to be big players, even if some aren’t obviously performance suitable. At the moment, Vinicius and Dembele are looking the best of that bunch in FI performance suitability terms.
However, the prices are restrictive. Because people assume those players are going to be global stars already, they are already priced to match. The reward for being right about their future world domination is no longer huge, and the penalty for being wrong if they fail is high.
Then in the next tier we have some more up and coming players. Pepe, Havertz, Jovic, Werner, Felix, Thorgan Hazard. Apart from Werner, whom I converted to in December at about the £3.50 range because he showed a big improvement, I have been highlighting those as big potential players on the site since very early in the season. (I was also relatively late to Jovic as I waited until he showed consistency – I got him at £3.96.)
But they are no longer the trades they were. You can do what you like with them because they are quality players. Either take profits now or wait until the Summer when almost all of them have big transfer links to pick up. If you are holding quality you make life easy for yourself.
But here is my main point and the point of this article. Because people buy players who are rising because they are rising, there are good young players that are equally talented with good prospects who are being overlooked.
This week, I spent hours and hours combing through this seasons stats of all players aged 24 and under from the big 5 European leagues to find the most FI suitable candidates. I have rooted out players showing the same levels of ability as the Pepe’s, Havertz, Felix and Thorgan Hazards (ok he is 25). In some cases, they even match some of the £8+ players stat for stat.
Once we have narrowed down the list, we then need to think about the softer factors like potential transfers and international appearances so we can consider who might be getting lots of attention and the chance of a first team spot at a big club.
There is a lot of information here to go over and I will share the first part today and the second part next week.
I will also do another article in the coming weeks on more long range, unknown players who have the right sort of stats but need a big club move.
The Players
All the players below I believe to be of very high quality. They represent some of the best prospects that have not yet risen to very high prices. Some may get attention soon and others are more long range, but they all show signs of being very strong FI players.
Serge Gnabry - £2.90
Position: Wing, Fwd
Age: 23
Club: Bayern Munich
Nationality: German (5 caps)
Market Value: €40m
Contract Expiry: 6/2020
Rumours: Contract nearing end.
Performance Suitability:
Excellent. His season stats per 90 minutes compare favourably with players like Sané and Havertz, Ousmane Dembele and Sancho. His issue has been rotation. He has played 869 minutes total which isn’t bad, but he has not had a secure starting spot. He has shown what he can do though particularly vs Werder Bremen on December 1 where he scored 216.
Recent Form:
Heavy rotation but he started in the cup on 6th February and scored 2, one of which was a superb finish.
Thoughts and Changes
If he gets regular minutes look out for him because if he plays his normal game he will be a strong challenger. Currently starting for Germany. Also watch the contract situation. We want a new contract rather than a rumour I think.
Stats have impressed me and I think he is showing enough to deserve a 4 star potential rating rather than 3.
Potential Rating: >
Corentin Tolisso - £2.14
Position: CMF
Age: 24
Club: Bayern Munich
Nationality: France (14 caps)
Market Value: €45m
Contract Expiry: 6/2022
Rumours: None.
Performance Suitability:
Superb. I genuinely think he could be one of the best around given a run of games and the injury was very unfortunate. Very few can match his overall involvement and threat, perhaps only a player of Alcantara’s quality.
Recent Form:
He is not expected back until next season.
Thoughts and Changes
For patient traders who can wait until the Summer, Tolisso is about as slam dunk a rise as you are going to get. If you don’t want to be on too early, keep an eye on him and don’t let the price run too far away. If fit, there is no reason he could not be a £6-7+ player in today’s market.
Potential Rating stays the same: although I may be under stating that, he could push higher.
Piotr Zielinski - £1.77
Position: LW, LCMF,
Age: 24
Club: Napoli
Nationality: Poland (41 caps)
Market Value: €40m
Contract Expiry: 6/2021
Rumours: Tottenham, Liverpool,
Performance Suitability:
Very strong overall involvement in the game, averaging over 50 passes per match. He matches that with threat, usually getting 2.5 shots per game. I am very surprised he has been on such a barren goal scoring run (hasn’t scored since December) because he is hitting plenty on target.
Recent Form:
Good, but really needs to start converting these chances.
Thoughts and Changes
Watch for him starting to convert these chances because if he does the big scores will come. And keep an eye on the transfer news because his contract doesn’t have long to run and he would be a big transfer into the EPL.
Ratings remain unchanged at Current Potential
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Julian Brandt - £3.95
Position: AMF,
Age: 22
Club: Bayer Leverkusen
Nationality: Germany, 23 caps
Market Value: €40m
Contract Expiry: 6/2021
Rumours: None.
Performance Suitability:
Well. It’s no secret now is it? Last night’s game stole my thunder on this one but members searching by potential rating will have spotted him at for a reason.
All he needed was consistent minutes and he has finally got a run of those. He has a strong combination of involvement and goal threat.
Recent Form:
Good run of minutes recently and hopefully this continues. Exceptional recent stats with 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 5.
Thoughts and Changes
If he keeps playing he should keep challenging unless something major changes. And with a contract expiry of 2021, surely a big club is coming in for him?
Potential rating remains but with increased minutes Current Rating moves up from
>
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Fabian Ruiz - £2.77
Position: RCMF, RW,
Age: 22
Club: Napoli
Nationality: Spain 0 caps (U21 10 caps)
Market Value: €32m
Contract Expiry: 6/2023
Rumours: None.
Performance Suitability:
Distribution and overall involvements stats compare favourably with some of the best around. He is getting a significant number of shots on goal too for a central midfield player, although they are not particularly high quality chances.
He has managed 4 goals this season although has been on a barren run with just 1 in the last 8 games. That seems to be a significant under performance though and if one of the 2/3 efforts on goal he gets most games goes in those performance scores should look better very quickly.
Recent Form:
Threat is decent with 3.5+ shots on average every game in the last 5. But none of them are going in! When they do, he has the overall involvement to make it count.
Thoughts and Changes
His rating remains unchanged at Current and Potential
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Giovani Lo Celso - £3.53
Position: CMF, AMF,
Age: 22
Club: Real Betis (PSG)
Nationality: Argentina (11 caps)
Market Value: €30m
Contract Expiry: 6/2019
Rumours: Betis Loan ends at end of season,
Performance Suitability:
Superb. Excellent overall involvement and goal threat. And he doesn’t have any niggling statistics that drag him down like too many yellows or give away passes.
Recent Form:
Had some rotation but is expected back. Actually been subdued by his high standards recently, having filled his boots in November/December. But the underlying stats remain strong and he could get back to that form.
Thoughts and Changes
Lo Celso can challenge regularly when playing for Betis. But I have always thought he is too good for the club and I would be surprised if bigger clubs did not at least challenge for him in the Summer. I can’t find details on the exact term of the loan, but I believe there is an option to buy. I am not sure whether Lo Celso himself will want to stay at Betis forever though.
Rating remains the same with Current and Potential
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Missed the Cut
These are 5 very notable players who I consider to be high quality and could rise further but they are now just above the £4 limit I set:
Houssem Aouar, Lyon, £4.07 – Potential:
Federico Chiesa, Fiorientina, £4.18 –
Marco Asensio, Real Madrid, £4.40 – Potential
Deli Alli, Tottenham, £4.73 – Potential
David Brooks, Bournemouth, £4.22 – Potential increased see Dashboard >