Let’s take a look at the upcoming IPO’s to see if we can find anything worthwhile. This is not about who will rise or fall on IPO day, it’s about who might actually be any good.
Before we start, a quick discussion about IPO strategy in general.
Getting on IPO’s early is a truly awful process. You get a random time window of a couple of hours where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
Friday 8th Feb IPOs
Click here for the list.
I have looked at each IPO on the list, and the notable ones to me are below.
A couple of people after the first IPO post asked me to include star ratings.
I’ve thought about this and because the data on many of these is so limited and they are often so far away from the first team, I don’t feel I can give potential ratings with any kind of respectable accuracy. Instead, I’ll highlight the two I think have the best long term prospects with a .
Xavier Amaechi – 18 – Arsenal – Winger
I’m sure he will get attention on the IPO day as any youth attacking player at a big club will. He has a favourable playing position on the wing and reasonable involvement and goal threat although the only really detailed data I have for him is at England U17 level. Ticks all the hype boxes but I have no evidence to suggest whether he is better or worse than average yet.
Chris Richards – 18 – Bayern – CB
A potentially decent Centre Back with what appears some good passing skills. Ball playing defenders are fashionable and good for the Index, so there is something here. Probably quite far from the first team but could start making his way through in the next 2-3 seasons.
Claudio Gomes – 18- Manchester City – DMC
City mids are going to get attention but Gomes does not fit the FI mould. Decent all round game but too deep to threaten the goal regularly.
Adrien Hunou – 25 – Rennes – CF
Weak involvement but good goal threat, possibly a good cheap goal dividends punt if you think he will start (he gets rotated a lot) and Rennes have a kind fixture.
Mbwana Samatta – 26 – Genk – CF
Another high threat weak baseline striker. Could do some damage for Genk who have a Europa League tie up next week. In good form.
Lee Kang-In – 17 – Valencia – AMF
Might get some attention as a Valencia AMF, but he seems a long way off. Even at youth level his stats have nothing to shout about. Has been getting some first team appearances in the cup.
Ryan Gravenberch – 16 – Ajax – DMC
Ajax midfielder so always going to get some attention but he is just 16 and probably years away from a real breakthrough. Does have some potential because despite his deep position he does come forward to threaten.
Billy Gilmour – 17 – Chelsea – CM
Some nice passing stats but not much threat beyond some speculative efforts and the odd U19 international penalty. Some potential but a long long way to go.
Oriol Busquets – 20 – Barcelona – DMC
Despite the name and playing position, no relation, before you ask! Strong passing, weak threat. Doesn’t look very FI suitable.
Ji-Jana Hoever – 17 – Liverpool – CB
He will get attention because of the club but there is limited data on him available and he looks a long way off to me. Good passing accuracy.