Well. Last night didn’t quite bring the excitement we were hoping for.
After a huge build up, we couldn’t manage a single goal in either game. Not for want of chances, mind.
That opened things up for some high baseline players to scrape a win with some limp scores given the limited matches on the fixture list.
This won’t always happen and generally you need to do more than just have a high baseline to win. But it can be a nice insurance policy and it can pick up the odd win on an offbeat day.
Both Liverpool and Lyon needed to do some damage last night to give the market confidence, and both of them missed the opportunity. Now travelling to difficult away games, last night will have dented the optimism of many traders in their assets.
However, expectations play a big part here. Both Bayern and Liverpool prices have probably been a bit suppressed due to fear of their tough match up. Once that result is in, the victor will likely see a nice reward and the loser will take a bit of a hit.
But beware the upset. Once the market makes these kinds of assumptions they get priced in. And if the expectations are not met it can send prices flying up or down.
Tough matches they may be, but Liverpool or Lyon only need 1 away goal to clinch it and you can never take a win for granted until it’s done.
Risers
Joshua Kimmich
A better night for Kimmich after his recent struggles.
This little bump probably reflects a reminder of his quality after his win (all be it with a very soft score) that caused a few people to reconsider. But more importantly, Bayern now look much more likely to go through than they did yesterday morning.
For the purposes of the return leg though Kimmich actually got himself banned which will be fairly annoying for holders, particularly if they didn’t realise before buying last night.
Will this end his slide? It’s a tough one. He’s going to be winning regularly and will have some more in him this season. But I would not personally be sure it would be enough to warrant sitting that kind of cash in him. Not when there are so many better opportunities for capital growth elsewhere.
However, very long term holders who are accumulating big dividend returners for extended holds will fare better with the pick.
Kingsley Coman
Coman has real quality and since coming back from injury has really shown it. Notably with two goals in the previous game.
Last night, he had a good game but away at Anfield it was always going to be tough so his weak score was not much of a surprise. Still, he played well enough to get people to notice and he has seen some buying.
I am confident in Coman as a performance player, I think he’s very solid. The question mark is his injury proneness which needs monitoring very closely.
I need to see more regular minutes and some injury free stability before I go diving into him too hard.
Fallers
Mohamed Salah
For a player with Salah’s price tag, he is always going to need strong media potential to support that value.
Much of that, last year anyway, came from Liverpool’s fantastic Champions League run. It could still happen.
But last night did make it less likely and Liverpool will regret not making home advantage count as they travel to Germany.
So it is no surprise to see the price taking a bit of a hit. But, it hasn’t taken a huge hit because some will still see him progressing.
The price is volatile now because if Liverpool do beat Bayern it will rocket. But if they don’t… Well. Holders still have the title run in and some very weak transfer rumours to hold on to.
So the price will take a hit if Liverpool crash out but maybe not by that much. People did expect a tough match vs Bayern and that will have been factored into the price already.
Hot Gossip
Manchester City's Shopping List
City’s star studded team have a fairly big shopping list but it is not really players of “super star” status. You’ve got Declan Rice, Wan-Bissaka and Ben Chilwell all mentioned today as City search for young English talent.
This ticks some hype boxes but all are actually “supporting cast” players rather than the main men. And, it’s not always easy to imagine where they are going to get consistent minutes from. Picking City assets is already a nightmare as it is.
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FIT
