So last night had a decisive Champions League result and it really showed the impact it can have. More exciting than the first CL night this week but maybe not in the way many were hoping for!
Ronaldo and some Juventus holders in general are going to be hurting and whilst it could have gone the other way, I tend not to actually gamble on the result of football matches on FI.
If that sounds strange to a sports betting mentality, it actually isn’t, in a market setting.
See, expectations from traders and trends are relatively easy for me to predict. Unless something unexpected happens (and it often does, to be fair) I have a good idea of who people will be buying a week from now or a month from now or three months from now.
But I don’t have a better idea than any fan or pundit of whether Atletico are going to beat Juventus. So I tend not to have money riding on the outcome of just one game.
And whilst a curve ball event can throw you off and you’ll have to adapt, it is generally more reliable than the outcome of big knockout football matches.
It’s why buying players on the match day so rarely works, you’ll be buying them from medium/long term traders like me and likely paying too much.
We also have a big story of two Joao’s today so let’s get straight into that.
This trade just has about every ingredient possible for a frenzied hype buy.
The rumour of interest from Real Madrid is the icing on the cake. It’s possible, but Benfica seem to be trying hard to tie him to a deal longer than his current which expires in 2022.
The comparisons to Felix are obvious. Same name. Same club. Similar playing position. Same tired and overused lazy journalist headline grabbing phrase “new Ronaldo”. And yes, talented, and possibly performance suitable.
However, he feels a good season or so behind Felix in development. He has only had 3 senior minutes for Benfica compared to Felix’s 898.
In that time, Felix has shown he can put up strong stats at a senior level. Filipe (Or Jota as he is also known as) demonstrates some similar stats to Felix but only at Benfica B level and so he needs to make a step up in quality whilst maintaining his numbers which is not always easy.
Because many will have missed out on the rise of Felix, there is always that temptation that “this time I’ve got it and I won’t miss this one!” especially when things appear so similar. That emotion is carrying the trade at the moment.
But really, even if the Real Madrid transfer did happen, I would expect he is going to need at least a season of senior football before starting for Madrid.
Even Felix is going to be touch and go for a first team spot next year if he moves to a big club.
I think for extremely patient long term holders who can pick him up cheap this is a good pick. But I think it is a season too early to be getting too excited by him at this price if you are interested in rational trading.
That may not stop the hype buyers who will see him as a hot trend player in the build up to the summer of course.
There is plenty in the stats to suggest he could be a decent player for us. But, I think it is too early for him and the interest will cool as soon as people have to worry about whether he is actually going to play any football next year.
As one Joao rises, another falls!
I think these price movements will be related as late comers to Felix will see what appears to be a better opportunity to get on something similar. I’m not sure it is, though.
The drop is so sudden that it looks like a couple of big holders or a trading group have decided to change horses.
I have been mentioning Felix for a long time on this site now, since he was cheap and relatively unknown and then more in the last few months as he rose in price.
Like I have said a couple of times in the last weeks, he has been getting over priced. So cashing out was not a terrible idea depending on strategy.
However, nothing has really changed for Felix in the last day. He will still enter the Summer as one of the hottest FI prospects and attract interest from a host of top clubs.
A slight concern is the Wolves link as they try to get a dream transfer and make him a Ruben Neves style character. But, that is one of many rumours doing the rounds and is something to monitor rather than panic sell over in my view.
So, unless the Wolves link firms up, I think he remains pretty much a slam dunk summer transfer speculation pick.
A timely reminder of what can happen in knockout football.
Also worth noting that in this case, Atletico players did not get much of a reward for their success. That’s quite surprising because you can often expect a nice bump. Perhaps people do not see Atletico getting too far or scoring too many goals.
Ronaldo is one of FI’s truly great players but he has so many drags on his value that his price is very sensitive to any bad news.
He really needs the personal issue cloud to lift and some kind of statement that suggests he is going to stay at the top level for at least another two years or so.
At this knock down price for a player of his quality, you would think he will have better times to come. I doubt Juventus would have paid what they did if the plan was only to get one good season out of him.
But it’s a brave holder who sticks in. I got out around £12 because it was uncertain which way things would go and I did not want the stress of holding him. I’m glad I did but it’s easy to say in hindsight. Reality is, it could have gone either way.
But it reminds me of a rule I tend to follow: if a trade is making me feel uncomfortable instinctively, I generally just get out of it.
After so many rumours in the last couple of years it is starting to feel like Bale’s time to do something big.
He is obviously unhappy at Real. They are unhappy with him. He doesn’t get on with the team. He still has plenty of good years ahead and could be the star at a huge club. Why would he not get out of there?
I think a lot of people will be sick of playing the on again off again game with Bale. Myself included. But the signs are that this could be his Summer.
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