There is really only one thing to talk about today!
With the maintenance period yesterday and the app flashing up all kinds of odd titbits of information, theories abound and it is already having an impact on the market with goalkeepers getting bought up for example.
Now of course if you really take these screenshots as evidence it is natural to want to gamble on them being true. But we need to be well aware that we are indeed gambling on this.
We have seen it so many times with these announcements. People try to make all kinds of wild guesses about what will be in them. Some theories get repeated so often on social media they become “a sure thing”.
Then when the announcement comes and FI do something completely different, people who gambled on the social media hysteria lose money, get upset, and try to cry foul that they were misled in some way. I’m a fairly even tempered guy but this winds me up.
It is up to individuals to decide whether they want to bet on the leaks being true. New traders can be in a tough spot because without experience of previous announcements it is easy to get swept along. So if this is you, be aware that pumpers do try to use uncertainty/hype around these announcements to get particular players rising.
Even a claim backed up by a screenshot is not a sure thing. This one is doing the rounds for example:
You can interpret this a number of different ways. At face value, this could mean that treble media is happening every day including on match days in future (and with other screenshots) it could suggest this could apply to all players outside of the top 200.
Some people think it means “tiered MB” where defenders/midfielders/forwards get their own media category and this is why goalkeepers are pumping. (A big reach in my view).
Or, the intern who is making that bit of the UI could have copy and pasted the treble media table on top of the performance by mistake.
It is also very likely that these snippets are only a small part of the picture. What other changes might get made? What if it comes with a a long talked about idea for each country to have it’s own media ranking starting with Sweden?
What if the above is true but performance is increased by even more and that is where the money goes on the day?
Personally, I don’t think these screenshots are a reason to go into a frenzy and massively alter strategy. Summer is coming (doesn’t sound as threatening as Winter…) it won’t be long until treble media will apply every day anyway.
I think the above change if true will help the premium picks because they will be hoovering up a lot more 2nd and 3rd places. But it’s going to help good players all the way down the market too eventually.
Of course, any positive announcement will get the obvious beneficiaries pumping in the short term and some people will want to speculate on that. However if people cry foul if that bet does not come off it will not only be irritating (less important) but it could muddy what should be a very positive announcement for FI (more important).
Risers
Gareth Bale and Real Madrid
Speaking of Media Buzz, I think the Summer prospects for Mr Bale just improved.
He and Zidane basically hate each other. In fact, the rumour is that the reason Zidane quit in the first place is the clubs refusal to sell him.
Yes, there are big contract issues to sort out but I think Real may now be willing to take a hit on this because Zidane is not going to want an unpopular sad sack ruining the mood in the camp.
As ever when a big club gets a new manager we now have to speculate on who the winners and losers are across the team.
The market seems to have decided Isco is now staying and that’s credible. He played well under Zidane although they too had their personal/discipline issues so it is not a sure thing.
Asensio is also one to watch with interest. I think he is a real quality player and whether in the first team at Madrid or at another big club he will shine in time.
And then there is the raft of youth players led by Vinicius. Unfortunately for them, Zidane was oft criticised for his reluctance to give youth a chance.
I think Vinicius might have done enough to push through that, and it would certainly be a very unpopular move with the fans to freeze him out. As for other promising youth prospects though I just got a bit less optimistic.
Fallers
Nicolo Zaniolo
A huge drop over the last month for Zanilo after his big break in February.
Last time I covered him in February as he was reaching his peak I said I thought he was good but being way overbought. He’s returning towards a more sensible price now but I think it is probably still a bit high.
He hasn’t scored in 5 and he has been subject to heavy rotation which is not helping him. However, his underlying stats aren’t bad and he is seeing enough of the ball and has had his chances to score even with limited minutes. Annoyingly for holders he was subbed off on 55 minutes last night.
Zaniolo is also getting Newcastle transfer links today which again will not help him. I can’t fathom why Roma would want to sell him now though so this feels like idle gossip to me. He is on a contract until 2023.
If the price continues to fall I think it will be worth revisiting Zaniolo as we think ahead to next season. He’s got some talent although he is not a slam dunk performance fit , he needs to improve his overall involvement in the game. That’s possible, he is only 19 after all.
Hot Gossip
Eden Hazard and Christian Eriksen
And the big club merry go round begins.
With Zidane installed at Real with apparently the mother of all war chests we can expect a return to the Galactico spending with the club in desperate times.
There is the Neymar and Mbappé talk but this feels really difficult. Just one would eat up the transfer chest and PSG are reluctant to let go. Hazard and Eriksen look more practical to my mind.
These are both difficult trades to handle though. You will get the initial price bump but then with players leaving the EPL the media appeal does reduce.
For Eriksen, this is not a serious problem as he is not a big media pick anyway. For Hazard, it could be.
To an extent however I think increased performance prospects sweeten the deal particularly for Eriksen in my view.
He has been frustrating this season as he has great suitability for the performance system but this season has rarely strung all the aspects of his game together to put up big scores. I would expect that to improve at Real.
Knowing when to buy and when to get out will be tricky here.
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