We have a nervous market this week which overall feels pretty much “suspended” even if it is no longer down for maintenance!
Of course, some players are still going up and down but that is primarily due to very obvious reasons like Champions League progression or knockout, or as people dump last weeks garbage IPO flips.
Traders find change both exciting and nerve wracking and I’ve got to say these technical glitches like taking double (or more!) of what you are depositing from your account could not be coming at a worse time.
FI are about to drop probably their biggest announcement of the season on Monday with the Share Split and if traders do not feel confident to deposit then it could be messy even with a positive announcement. Generally, FI do a good job but they have been known to occasionally snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
If any FI staff are reading – please consider delaying the announcement if the technical changes are not solid yet. I’m not the only person to call for this.
Even without the Share Split uncertainty/excitement the end of the season is a choppy time anyway. The coming 3-5 months as we end one season, head into the Summer and then prepare for the next is the most important time of the year in my view. It is the time I work hardest, not the time to take the Summer off!
You can get this very wrong or very right and it can have a massive effect on your total returns for the year.
There is no 100% definite optimal strategy especially as there is nothing that can just be blindly applied season after season. You have to take each season as it comes.
More important is that you have a clear plan that works for your strategy, skill and time commitment. The more on top of the market trends you are and the better information you have (through significant time dedicated to research) the more active you can generally be.
Without good up to date information and with minimal effort you can struggle and may be better with a more passive/safe strategy.
Back to the short term, the only thing certain is that it will be a roller coaster week. Don’t forget the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Final draws on Friday. Favourable or tough draws will directly impact values.
And do be there watching like a hawk for the Share Split announcement because on days like this you have to be on the ball and ready to react quickly if needed.
That said, preparation before hand to manage risks and set yourself up well vs the trends is wise. After the announcement there is only so much you can do because everyone will have the same information.
Risers
Sadio Mané
Sublime performance last night for Mané and I can see why people get carried away however the cold hard Index reality is that he was not rewarded for the display.
With 2 goals he managed just 124 and that is a bad sign for performance suitability. This isn’t the first time for him either and it is clear from the match stats as to exactly why that is. It is unlikely to change. You can argue he was unlucky not to get the match winner but that would still only make 164.
He was well beaten by Messi who also got 2 goals and no match winner with a monster 249. Obviously, not every player can be Messi who is the textbook performance player. But there are many strikers who are significantly better than Mané and would typically push over 200 with 2 goals.
That said, on treble match days like Quarter Finals with limited competition, a 150 score from a forward can easily win. So, for those particular games he’s got a decent chance. Not that a handful of games will justify the price so the best hope for profits will likely be flipping him ahead of or during those games.
Media prospects are also tricky because Salah is the established Media Buzz guy but Mané stole this show (only for it in turn to be stolen by Ronaldo). Really, we needed it to be Salah in the limelight.
Cristiano Ronaldo
The topic of much discussion over the last months and sentiment has been so totally down on him.
I did sell up at £12 way back when his troubles started and have obviously not regretted it. However, I said a couple of weeks back that at £7 he was looking cheap and I thought he had been over sold.
I still did not go for it myself because it was very much a gamble sort of trade. He needed a huge performance to dig himself out of the hole and boy did he deliver. If anyone can, it is him.
A favourable draw on Friday will see him push higher I think. If and when the personal issues lift and people see him warming up for a second season at Juventus I suspect he will easily return to the top 10 most expensive players.
Fallers
Daniel Parejo and Marcelo Brozovic
I note gradual falls for this pair although nothing severe.
People are well into end of season worry now and despite decent performances particularly from Parejo, there are only so many willing to hold a straight up performance player without transfer prospects towards close season and over the Summer.
People will surely come back to them, but right now, buying for this type of player is going to be pretty heavily suppressed. And even if they win, I doubt they will be richly rewarded.
Still, both of these remain in Europe with good chances of progressing. On days with limited games, high baseline players like this can easily sweep up the treble dividends without a goal.
So, for the right players, there could still be some last hurrahs before the season is over.
Hot Gossip
Mauro Icardi
This sulk has been going on a long time and he is being linked to just about every big club going most notably Real Madrid and Juventus. He would seem the ideal Benzema replacement should Zidane decide his race is run.
He is without doubt one of Europe’s best goalscorers and although he is not a fantastic performance player, he has the explosiveness to rack up some big scores anyway.
The bonanza would be an EPL move however and we should keep tabs on that because although I see a price boost at somewhere like Real Madrid, an EPL move with media buzz potential throughout the season could send him flying.
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