Those who have read my strategy articles will know I am currently targeting predominantly on trend (see Trendometer), strong performance players with favourable transfer moves for the Summer.
But not all transfer rumours are created equal.
We now have the new Transfer Rumour section on the Dash where I track the key transfers of performance suitable players and this should help members keep on top of the changes. I’ll update that more and more frequently as we get towards the window.
But I think members will also want to see more detailed analysis on transfers, so I plan on publishing these articles regularly.
I’ll assess not just the probability of the transfer but consider the possible outcomes and how much each might be worth to us. We need to know exactly what we are betting on for each player. Which League and Team do we want? How would he get on at a new club? Is the price good value? When might we want to sell? Or is he a keeper?
At least once a week from now on I will pick out some of the more interesting transfers and discuss them in more detail.
Introducing: Transfer Categories
I am introducing a tiered category system for quick at a glance rating of transfers. This will be added to the Rumours section of the Dashboard in the near future.
Cats. A-E indicate how strongly the transfer will impact the potential dividend earnings of the player and therefore how strongly the market will react if the transfer gathers pace.
So each transfer will be rated out of 
for probability/strength of the rumours and then assigned a category from A-E to indicate what impact it will have if it firms up.
Cat. A – On trend, performance suitable player incoming to a big EPL club. High profile and a potential long term consistent media winner. Examples: James Rodriguez, Bale, Jadon Sancho, Philippe Coutinho, Nabil Fekir, Icardi,
Cat. B – On trend performance suitable player incoming to a big club in the EPL. Modest long term media potential. Bruno Fernandes, Steven Bergwijn, Hirving Lozano
Cat. C – On trend performance suitable player going to any big club in the big 5 European leagues. Examples: Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Julian Brandt,
Cat. D – Average or weak performance player going to a big club in the big 5 European leagues. Examples: Tanguy Ndombelé,
Cat. E – Performance suitable player who may be off trend or going to middle/low ranking clubs in the big 5 European leagues. Example: Youri Tielemans, Yacine Brahimi.
Selected Players
Kai Havertz
Rumour Strength
Category Range
B-C
Most Likely Category
C
Interest and Likelihood
Havertz is an extremely performance suitable talent and playing somewhere like Bayern he could be fearsome.
The transfer looks like it has a strong chance of happening and although Arsenal are having a go I do not think that likely. Bayern has seemed like his destiny for a while although that may depend on James Rodriguez’s future. Juventus are also getting linked recently.
Media Prospects
He’d get some attention for sure if he did get strong EPL links but I doubt this is likely. If transferring to Bayern or Juventus, the summer media buzz prospects are going to be limited and it will not be a Summer bonanza.
The long term media prospects are also weak beyond any transfer speculation unless he does come to the EPL.
Performance Prospects
Extremely strong, particularly if he goes to Bayern and works his way into the side. Juventus are good but right now everything goes through Ronaldo and that will hurt him. He is operating at 
level at Leverkusen since January and provided he has pitch time, he could easily get even better at Bayern.
Strategy
Hold for now. His actual Summer media prospects may be fairly weak but not everyone knows that and I think (fingers crossed the share split announcement goes well) we have yet to see a surge of Summer buying and a full market shift in that direction yet.
As we enter mid April onwards it might be one to sell if there is a peak of hype and then revisit for performance purposes in the Summer. However, holding for the excellent performance potential at Bayern would also be a very valid option.
Luka Jovic
Rumour Strength
Category Range
B-C
Most Likely Category
50/50 B or C
Interest and Likelihood
Jovic is one of Europe’s top young strikers and is attracting interest from a host of huge clubs including Bayern, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.
There is a strong chance of this move happening this summer and the apparent £40 million price tag is feasible. The uncertainty is mainly in whether he comes to the EPL or goes to another big club which is a guessing game at this point.
Media Prospects
If he comes into the EPL then the short term media prospects will be very strong in the build up and after the transfer. Whilst you will always get flippers, traders will be more likely to stick in to see how he gets on at the start of the season.
If by May he looks like going to Bayern or Barcelona the price may stagnate or even fall as it will not attract much short term media.
Performance Prospects
Good at any big club provided he gets pitch time. As a good striker I expect a 
however he has shown he is capable of good overall involvement and this is why I have him as a potential if he can get the right role in a big side.
There is a difficulty with clubs like Liverpool and City as the first string are well established, so despite this being the dream media move it might not reap immediate performance success.
Strategy
Whilst the rumours remain open ended I plan to hold. I will be bullish in the short term if EPL links pick up, but more cautious if he looks like heading outside of the EPL.
I may decide not to cash in on any transfer hype / media buzz and hold for the season start depending on club and where I see him fitting in.
Lorenzo Insigne
Rumour Negativity
Category Range
A-B
Most Likely Category
A
Interest and Likelihood
I’ve been optimistic about Insigne for a long time now as his combination of performance strength and strong and repeated transfer links to Liverpool (and some to Man. City) would be a killer.
It still might be, but I have to say the gossip this week worries me. We have the usual “Not for Sale” warnings from the Napoli President. I don’t sweat too much on these – every club with a brain makes it seem difficult just to drive the price up.
But what I do take seriously is his father’s statement this week pledging his future to Napoli and declaring loyalty. Insigne is the captain now and has been known to stay loyal in the past when he had the chance to move.
Not definitely off but needs monitoring carefully.
Media Prospects
If incoming to the EPL this would be a big deal. Huge fee and unless holders are unlucky and another big transfer crosses over it there should be a spree of media dividends attached to the build up to this move.
There are also longer term media prospects as he could be a modest but regular winner if he did well for a big team.
Performance Prospects
Extremely strong, particularly at a big club. Although, the strength of Liverpool and City is a problem because of the established pecking orders.
There are a host of quality players who do not get a look in because of rotation (Mahrez the biggest example) so we would need to look out for that.
But with a place in a big side and decent form I’d expect him to maintain his . He has been light on dividends this year but the stats are good and he has been unlucky with things like match winning goals a few times.
Strategy
Depending on how seriously you take the latest rumours you can hold or ditch. If you really think it is off it may just be worth coming out. Although, I am sure this is not the last we have heard of these Liverpool rumours and I think in general, it’s too early to panic unless rumours are definitely killed off.
The price is reasonable anyway for a strong performance player still in Europe and I think he is always going to be in demand again come pre-season even at Napoli. One of the benefits of holding quality is that if you can be patient there are usually not many terrible decisions to make.
Mauro Icardi
Rumour Strength
Category Range
A or C
Most Likely Category
50/50 A or C
Interest and Likelihood
With Icardi literally refusing to play for Inter and given the contract has been a running sore for a long time now, surely this must happen in the Summer.
There are Premier League links with Chelsea and Manchester United and also links to Real Madrid. As to which is more likely, it is currently very hard to say and I am going 50/50.
Media Prospects
Incoming to the EPL, I would expect a major boost to his price. The media potential both for the transfer and on-going throughout the season for one of the best strikers in Europe is clear.
Outside of the EPL, say he goes to Real, the media prospects get much less exciting particularly in the long term.
Performance Prospects
Icardi is not a brilliant performance player. His involvement is low. But, he is explosive and can knock in two goals a game. In the mood and with the increased frequency and quality of chances he could be a goal scoring monster. feels right at a good club in good form. He will get poor scores often but pop up with huge scores seemingly from nowhere.
Strategy
I believe he will transfer. I could be wrong, but the signs seem there. At Real I think he starts next season at a higher price than he is now, but it’s a more modest gain. And he could do very well there.
If those EPL links hot up, particularly to Manchester United, in the summer it could be a huge price gain if the transfer happens.
So, I will stick in as long as that remains reasonably possible. In the EPL I would almost certainly continue to hold rather than cashing in because if he becomes a top goal scorer the media potential is strong.