Post Share Split, the Guide Pricing on the Dashboard needs freshening up. So let’s see how prices have moved since the last update in February, and how they shake out after the split.
Guide Prices are a rough average of what the market is willing to pay for strong players in a certain position if they are KNOWN to be strong performers or widely considered to be strong POTENTIAL performers.
Each player is different and you have to mentally adjust the Guide Price depending on how well (or badly) they fit the trends, the transfer rumours, and the general “feel good” factor around the player.
Guide Prices should therefore not be taken too literally but are best thought of as an anchor or a marker in the sand.
I use them when considering whether I am paying too much for a player or not. If I think I have found a good player, but the market is not aware that player is strong, how much will they pay when they learn what I know because he gets a couple of PB wins or similar?
Or, am I holding a player that doesn’t really have much further to rise in the current market?
There is a Guide Price given for a perceived strong player who fits the market trends, and a Guide Price for a strong player that does not squarely fit the trend and has very few hype factors.
When Media is involved, you can often double or treble the Guide Price in the case of a player reaching a Neymar/Pogba/Ronaldo level, or even those rumoured to be “the next” one of those. I am now including this as a “Media Modifier”, explained at the end.
All Prices are converted to new post share split values, so we are comparing like with like i.e the starting value is what a player would have been in Feb after the Split to the prices today.
On Trend Known Strong Player Average:
- Defender: £1 > £1.10
- Midfielder: £1.60 > £1.80
- Forward: £2.15 > £2.20
Off Trend Known Strong Player
- Defender: 75p > 75p
- Midfielder: £1.15 > £1.05
- Forward £1.65 > £1.60
New: Media Modifier: x2 to x3 (explained below)
On average, the on trend strong defenders (those with good transfer links and probably young) have increased by about 10% since February. They are typically in the 90p > £1.20 range, with a few more expensive if the hype is big enough.
The two big outliers are Kimmich and van Dijk, which is interesting because strictly speaking these are actually off trend players, and will only get more so.
In general though on trend defenders have risen a bit and this probably reflects buying ahead of the transfer window as these will be the ones to benefit (Don’t count on much media, for all but the biggest defenders!).
For the off trend strong defenders, good players without good transfer links or any hype, they have stayed pretty much static, hanging out around the 65p to 80p range.
On trend midfielders have had a significant rise in the last month, to the £1.60 > £2.20 range and a rough average of £1.80. That’s a 12.49% increase on my average estimate last time out.
This is pulled up by the likes of Felix, Havertz, Foden. But also the Coutinho’s, Rice’s etc. Essentially, anyone expected to get speculation as we approach the Summer.
Off trend midfielders have taken a bit of a beating, with your classic strong yet unexciting performance players like Alcantara, Parejo, Banega seeing significant losses but it is not limited to just them, it’s most players without a reason to hold in the Summer. The estimated average has come down from £1.15 to £1.05, an 8.6% drop.
There is a more fluctuation in the On Trend forwards category and you see similar quality of player with quite different prices. This is because many of them have huge media premiums at the top end (see note on media below).
And, there is a big premium attached depending on likely transfer destination. If a known strong and relatively high profile striker has strong EPL links he will obviously tend to do very well. Someone like Werner who is expected to go to the Bundesliga does pretty well but has some of that shine taken off because of the lack of short term media opportunity.
Overall though, I see on average a relatively small increase of £2.15 > £2.20 as a rough average or 2.3%. However, for certain players with the right transfer links, that rise was much greater. This might reflect that a lot of forwards are not great performance players and actually need that EPL media possibility to push the price much higher than the current average.
Off trend but strong forwards like Aguero, Suarez, Aspas, Lewandowski were dropping in the last month but many have had a bounce back recently. On average, they were heading for a significant drop but because of this recent bounce back, I’ve pegged that at a modest £1.65 > £1.60.
This could be due to a mix of Champions League games approaching for some and I think more importantly, In Play Dividends as many want to experiment with the new payouts. That’s something to watch.
There are opportunities there. Perhaps you want to try for some In Play Dividends yourself, in which case there is value to be found. But, if you want to offload an off trend forward player, there may well be In Play Dividend buyers for you to sell to.
This is a risk for In Play Dividend buyers because whilst there will be a trend towards IPD, performance holders selling such players in late season will be working against you.
Media players are a law unto themselves so I discount them when thinking of the above averages. However, it’s still helpful to think about.
Where you have a slam dunk, top tier media returner like Neymar or Pogba, you can safely treble or even quadruple the on trend price for their position. So, Pogba is currently well over 4x my on trend average price for midfielders. Sancho, because people apparently believe he will hit a Pogba level of return in the next 2-3 years if he comes to United, is hanging out at just over 3x average on trend value.
As a broad generalisation, it’s fair to say that for a player who is expected to one day match the returns of a Neymar or Pogba (the next…”) you can often x2 or even x3 the on trend price for that position. Maybe in rare cases 4x but I’ll say 2-3x as an average.
Overall, it’s clear that what I have been banging on about since my February Key Strategy article has been happening, the transition away from off trend players on the site trendometer towards players fitting the site positive trends is well underway.
The main trend should continue to be the transition from performance towards a Summer media focus, especially with the April 15 announcement on the way.