Some big drops for some popular players in the last few days.
As is so often the case, it is accompanied by a general sense of bewilderment on social media!
It’s hard to tell how much of this is genuine surprise and how much is people desperately trying to keep other traders from selling their tanking players. “Cannot believe people are selling Y. It’s foolish to sell… X” etc etc. We’ve all seen it.
But if you read the trends correctly it is clear why players who have been over bought amidst share split hype and the international break which poured fuel on the youth trend fire are now dropping.
If we take a step back, it was only just before that international break that similar players (youth, over priced) were dropping and there was plenty of “is the youth trend bubble bursting?!” fear around.
Southgate played a big role in giving the youth trend a new burst of optimism at a time when it badly needed it by giving starts to Sancho and Hudson-Odoi.
Now, many are dropping again. But so are high quality premium players at the top end.
But this is not really about youth or the value of dividends for premium players at all. The common factor amongst fallers? Fading reasons to hold them in the Summer. And the more expensive the player is, the more vulnerable they are.
I don’t think the youth trend is bursting yet although you never know when it might and anyone who claims to know just doesn’t. Even worse are the claims that it will surely go on forever.
This is why holding players at sky high prices that you know they do not deserve, youth or otherwise, is asking for trouble. If you’ve made your profits and you know the player is overpriced, it’s time to come out and find something else that can make you more money and is not a big risk.
And if you are plowing into hyped players at insane prices, you are making yourself the guy at the very bottom of that particular pyramid scheme.
The youth trend should be followed, but that does not mean you need to go for the exact players who have been bought heavily. To get the real wins, you need to find promising talent that remains at a value price.
You can gamble on garbage players that vaguely resemble a previously rising player but have no real performance/future dividend credentials. And in the current market it can pay off.
But with a bit more effort, you can find high quality players who are bang on trend and have future dividend/media earning potential.
These are the players that will net the biggest capital appreciation wins, and are least at risk of taking a beating when and if the trend does shift.
Risers
Youri Tielemans
Tielemans is a good example of a strong young talent whose price is not yet crazy.
Usually, a player like this could be too deep but he is one of those central midfielders who can come forward to find some decent quality chances. And, he has the finishing ability to put difficult chances away.
Combined with his good overall involvement in the match, that’s very encouraging for performance purposes.
Until recently, the assumption was that he would sign permanently for Leicester. Unfortunately, if that is the case, that will not be a good enough platform for him to win regularly from.
However, doubt is being cast on that with Manchester United rumours surfacing.
At Leicester it would be a pass from me. But at United, I’d be very interested.
Memphis Depay
Depay has not emulated his barn storming finish to last season this term. But, his performances have been full of clues as to his performance strength.
Particularly over the last 7 games for club and country he has been excellent, with 5 goals and 4 assists. Unfortunately only 1 of those came in an eligible game on FI, Toulouse on 3rd March where he notched a 174 even without the match winning goal.
Yes, he’s sulky. And he tends to blow hot and cold. But he’s a talent. And if these emerging Liverpool rumours hot up the market reaction will continue to be very strong given the value price.
Fallers
David Neres
Another good young talent, and it’s best included as an example of how tricky the transfer trades can be.
Unlike with performance trades where a bad game or two can be shrugged off, our transfer based trades can turn on a sixpence.
We have to be all over the market news because a good rumour being closed down or a link to the wrong team can see the price take a savaging.
I’ve added a transfer centre to the members area recently to help keep on top of all this and analyse the different possibilities. But even with the most thought through choices, transfer trades are very much gambles.
This far ahead of the window, not many trades will get firmly shut down or confirmed. But the closer we get the deals will start being wrapped up at a quicker pace and it will get tougher.
As for Neres himself, I like him and see him as a solid performance player if given the right platform. Somewhere like Dortmund would be ideal. Juventus and PSG certainly although I would worry he would just be a back up.
Everton however are not the link we want so I can see why he is falling.
Although it could be somewhere he proves himself and then steps up, that all feels a long time to wait for a reward right now.
Hot Gossip
Eden Hazard
Could it be over that quickly?
According to Marca the move to Real should be sewn up in the coming days. These stories seem fairly credible, although there still seems to be a sticking point over the fee.
Tricky trade to manage, this. If this were true, you would see a burst of media interest in the short term, and possibly interest for the next few weeks as it is discussed. And then his final games for Chelsea, and he still has the Europa League (signing off with a win etc).
But, it is also probably a bit earlier than speculators might have hoped. A holder would want a more vague rumour than this and probably for it to drag out a bit more.
The transfer is also in the “wrong” direction as the best transfers are into the EPL not out of it. Although, Hazard at Real Madrid could be an excellent performance player, and there would still be long term interest in how he gets on even in the British media. I think Real enhances his prospects in many ways.
Conclusion? Could be an up and down few months and I would not be at all surprised if a finalised deal saw a sizable drop.
But, for those who are happy to stick this out and hold until next season, I think there will be plenty of dividends in it and probably buying interest in pre-season once he is set to start for Real.