The announcement of the additional media bonuses for the Summer already fitted squarely into my current Key Strategy.
So, if using my approach or something similar, there was not much adjustment needed to set up nicely for this. We already knew the focus would shift towards Summer media and we should be there anyway.
But, with just under a week to go until the announcement on the 15th April, I am getting some questions about this topic so I’ll set out my thoughts on it for members.
What bonus could we expect?
In truth we don’t know and never will know the exact mechanics that might get used until FI tell us.
But given the narrow scope of media, it is hard to imagine it is not going to involve the usual: transfer speculation, particularly big EPL related transfers, and then any of the usual big ticket media players provided they have a real reason to be in the news this Summer (many don’t, or have a weak link at best).
I could be wrong and FI might do something crazy. But, the tone of all this to me is sold as a bit of a bonus, not a massive redesign of how media scores are counted that should surprise us.
So, I am personally happy to double down and place my bet that this is just going to benefit the existing media suitable players that I have even more.
Should I buy now or wait?
The lesson from our recent two big events for the Share Split is that it is better to be in ahead and relax during/after the announcement.
I think that is the correct approach again in this case.
The previous two events were fairly “as expected” announcements which means people do not feel the need to react massively. Much of the buying has been and will be done in the build up.
Given the narrow focus on a media bonus, it seems a strong bet to me that there will not be major surprises here either.
I could be wrong but to see people piling in hand over fist or a market shift immediately after the market reopens, we would need something crazy/unexpected that favours something other than transfer speculation players and I do not think that is likely.
What if any new way to win is locked to shares bought after the announcement?
This is a popular subject of speculation.
FI could limit the bonus to shares bought only AFTER the announcement for 30 days, in the same way In Play Dividends are. This is possible. FI like it because it limits their financial liability and encourages new buying, so I could sign up to this theory.
Some people think it is therefore best to hoard cash and wait to do their buying until afterwards. I totally disagree with this and here is why.
First of all, very simply, it might not happen. If it doesn’t, you have just put yourself right at the back of the queue and are paying a premium to traders like me who went in earlier. To me, following others in at high prices is the cardinal sin of trading. Yuck.
Secondly, even if it does happen, you are still going to be paying a premium to traders like me who went in earlier. You will gain eligibility for whatever dividends are on offer, but you will be paying dearly for it and will need to win a fair bit just to break even.
And the earlier trader will be banking big profits from capital appreciation without needing to wait for any dividend wins at all.
After all, if I am given the choice between a straight up bankable profit rather than waiting to see if I will win a dividend, you know what my answer will be.
As an early buyer, I might not be eligible for any new dividends, but I can sort that out later by rolling my shares over if I want to, or cashing out my profits to seek a different target. I’ll have some time and space to worry about this and won’t be forced into any quick panic moves.
The wait and see approach would pay off in a scenario where FI did something really weird that made a whole batch of previously off trend players suddenly desirable. But, as I say, given the narrow focus on media, I find it hard to see how this might happen.
There is always some uncertainty ahead of these announcements. We have to place a bet on the outcome, even choosing to sit out and horde is a bet. I am just going to do the simple thing and back the favourite.
Just like before the share split, the bulk of my bank (approx 90%) will be committed and I will not be hoarding cash to wait and see.
However, to cover a really left field announcement from FI, I will aim to keep around 10% of my bank as liquid cash to give myself a little bit of flexibility should I need it.
This is not a huge deal for me because I almost always have 5-10% liquid cash to avoid having to sell to buy.
Tying this into my overall Key Strategy, I anticipate trying to read the peak of buying for transfer activity and executing another strategy transition at the right moment to gradually exit some of my transfer trades at high prices, to reinvest elsewhere as we think about pre-season and again move ahead of the pack to anticipate the next phase.
At the moment, late April or early May might see the start of this for some players. But it will be a gradual shift not a sudden thing.
As ever, members will be kept well informed and can expect a new Key Strategy article on that as soon as I am clear on the details of what I will do and when.