A little bit more stability on the market and we are not seeing the top end players in free fall anymore.
Hopefully, this bounces on into a more positive mood. People can get suddenly very down if they are losing money and I get why.
But really, even if you have taken a beating in the last month, if you have been around at least since Jan/Feb, the chances are you are still significantly up overall.
We live charmed lives on FI and the more the platform matures the tougher it will get. A lot of people aren’t used to it but we need to be able to mentally handle a loss without flapping if we want to succeed long term.
It goes back to the psychology that people hate taking losses way more than they love winning money. Good risk management is therefore key to keeping a level head.
This is the last Daily before Monday’s big media announcement which could be huge. I talk about my plans for this in the latest New Trader Challenge update published yesterday which you can find here.
The Challenge was started on Day 1 of the new season and is now at a healthy 138% return on investment. All with no bonuses, no social media pump picks, and in a time efficient way with just 32 trades so far (3.5 trades per month!).
One of the main reasons I started the Challenge was to show that you can still enter the market and make good money without chasing the hype or devoting your entire life to FI.
I think that is still as true now as it was on Day One of this season.
Risers
Martin Terrier
Another goal for Terrier at Lyon last night, and that is 4 in 4 league games even with limited minutes.
It’s not a fluke either he consistently gets good chances to score when he plays, and he is showing the finishing ability to put them away.
It isn’t helping him much in the actual performance scoring but he has had bad luck on that front. Lyon are in poor form and he has not been hitting match winners. When he did against Rennes, he only played 19 minutes and yet still managed 106 which is pretty good.
He has been in and out of the side so his stats take a bit of reading. But per 90 minutes, I like what I see. He looks like a rising star in Ligue 1 and that talent could translate well to FI too.
This might be one to look at again in pre-season. Especially if Fekir and/or Depay move on as expected, Terrier has done more than enough this term to stake his claim as their automatic replacement.
Mason Greenwood
With a threadbare squad, OGS includes Greenwood and Gomes in the group for West Ham. They could make their full EPL debuts.
Obviously, this sends the prices soaring so if you like chasing this kind of madness there can be profit in it. What if he does come on and score? Well then more people will pile in.
What if, more likely, he sits on the bench and does absolutely nothing? Or comes on and also does nothing? Then the price will tank again and the spread is no joke.
On rational assessment, he’s got some impressive youth level stats, particularly the goals which come by the hatful. And for a forward, decent all round game potentially too. However, translating that to the actual EPL is extremely difficult and those stats will almost certainly decline significantly.
The thing is, all you have to do is Google Manchester United U18 stats and sort by goals to work out he has potential. If something is easy and obvious, you aren’t going to get a good price because markets are about information.
Greenwood is just too well known and hyped to be anything close to good value. There is profit to be made if you gamble and it pays off but there are potential big losses here too.
In my view, if you find this sort of player at 50p to £1, fill your boots. Go big. But piling in late is a real mug’s game. It can work on occasion but if this is part of your playbook, you are almost certain to lose money in the long term.
Fallers
Lionel Messi
Despite being almost unarguably the best performance player on FI. Despite seemingly not being even close to declining. And despite having a strong tilt at the Champions League ahead, Messi, along with many premium price players has been taking a dive in the last month.
The premium price player dips was a natural consequence of the share split and all the hype they got. So he is not alone in dropping. But Messi is getting particular flak on social media as his often discussed age comes up yet again. Is it fair?
Well, both arguments have merits. He’s bang in form, dividend returns look like they should be strong for the rest of the season, and he has juicy treble days ahead, probably at least 3. Plus all the media attention the CL brings.
After that, the Summer looks barren for him though. So, holders have to be aware that anyone hanging in for the CL is more than likely want to exit.
Very few people are genuinely content with the 10% or so return you can get at the top of the market. I think generally, until time progresses and people can see another dividend increase on the horizon, all top end prices will struggle for this reason.
With an older player, that effect will be amplified because people worry about resale value and whether the older guy will be around in 1-2 years for any future dividend increase.
The dividends on offer vs the prices at the top end still do not offer huge return on investment even after the increase.
To end on a more hopeful note for Messi holders, I think that particularly if the price drops, there are going to be plenty of traders interested again come pre-season.
In my view he remains the best performance player on FI and that counts for something.
Hot Gossip
Toni Kroos
Real do look likely to offload him and whilst he feels like he has been around a long time, he is still just 29. So still very marketable and potentially with 2-3 of his best years ahead.
He is a solid performance player. But he could be a great one particularly if he went somewhere he was top dog and got the free kicks etc.
But, if he did go somewhere like Inter, I think most would see that as a step down.
Manchester United links are still a fair way off, but if it did happen, he suddenly gets some media appeal. With his price having tanked, this is shaping up to be a good value and potentially big transfer story.