Usually, I preview both the legs for these big games but unfortunately I did not get to in time for last nights matches due to a hectic week with the media bonus. Apologies!
I’ll do a quick review of last night and the resulting price movements because some of them are very interesting. And then do a brief preview of tonight’s games. I’ll do a full Europa preview later today.
Review of Last Night's Games
The Ajax win was the big news and in the 1st Leg Preview I said:
Throughout this series I’ve found the algorithm to be pretty good at highlighting a possible upset. It backed Ajax to beat Real at home and even gave them a decent chance away. The betting just tends to go with the heavy favourite.
I think the same is true here, I do expect Juventus to win but Ajax are absolutely no push overs and are well capable of another shock.
So, another point for the algorithm. It’s not something to be slavishly followed but when it comes to highlighting a potential cup upset, I think it does better than the betting odds.
As per our usual theme, the big upset gets the big market movements and Ajax holders profited very handsomely. Neres and Ziyech look the strongest options as performance players and do have transfer speculation so whilst they are pricey now they are at least on trend.
Ziyech is the best Ajax performance player of the lot and also one of the cheaper prices probably because he has a mixed bag of transfer links both good and bad.
Defender De Ligt at £2.48 is nothing short of madness. He does have transfer speculation but it will not be particularly news worthy and even the best defenders struggle for media outside of a very specific big story.
He is a decent player but no better than the many other high quality ball playing Centre Backs available at the £1 mark.
van De Beek looks decent as a potential pick and with the price ceilings of other Ajax stars well towards £2.50 it is no wonder people bought him up. He does have some transfer links and in this market could easily rise further. I tend not to buy after a peak like this though, better to find something else that has not already gone if you can resist the fear of missing out.
On the other side of the upset is Ronaldo and Kean for Juventus. Kean as per the Scouting has just been way over bought so this does not surprise me. With no transfer speculation he is both offtrend and overpriced so I would expect this fall to continue.
Ronaldo now gets interesting. There is no way this is his last season and could tempt many at this knock down price. Something I will look at later.
The surprise for me personally is Messi. He aced it winning 3 of the 5 on a treble day whilst securing at least 2 more treble days to come. And yet, absolutely tanked overnight. I would not have expected a rise but I did not expect a drop of this scale.
It shows how absolutely critical the site trends are right now and trends are beating anything else. There were clearly many Messi holders who wanted to use this opportunity to get out. So the lesson here is 1) make absolutely sure you are respecting the trends (not to be confused with following specific hype players, this is my personal pet hate right now!).
And 2) do make use of my oft repeated tactic of selling unwanted/off trend players in the build up to games like this, not waiting for the dividend. Messi holders will have lost far more in capital value than they won.
Pogba, by contrast, survived mostly unscathed. Not many people really expected United to turn over Barcelona, so it wasn’t a shock. There is also some transfer rumours which will keep some people in (though they look weak to me). And, obviously many are just content to hold long term believing he will be a guaranteed riser given he is in his prime. So people are much less twitchy than they are on an older player.
Tonight's CL Games
Note that tonight we have 2 spoiler games Nantes v PSG and Lazio v Udinese which are both postponed games rescheduled. Frustrating for CL holders. Possible opportunity if you want to punt on PSG or Lazio players.
We have Porto v Liverpool tonight and that *should* be straight forward and should not do anything major to prices unless of course there is a huge shock. If Liverpool crashed out it would be brutal on the market since progression is assumed.
Any of Liverpool’s front 3 are capable of winning tonight, and I generally prefer Firmino as the better baseline player and the value pick. But Salah has the media appeal on top. Low key Milner, Fabinho or Henderson are capable too, and I particularly like Keita at the moment if he starts as a punt.
Spurs v City is a tougher match up and despite Tottenham’s goal advantage City are still the favourites at home.
I’d suspect the winners get a bit of a boost but City assets are tricksy due to rotation. Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne would be my in form picks. David Silva (if he does score should do well but threat recently has been weak. I like Laporte at the back due to his consistency.
For Spurs I’d back Eriksen who has been in decent form and Son.