The market is flying and personally and for those referencing the members area site strategy, it is one of the most profitable 6 weeks of this season.
And all at a time where many feared an end of season sell off. But uncertainty in a market often opens up the best opportunities to profit if you are confident.
This comes from heavy research to position early in the right Summer/media related players that everyone wants right now. And reading the Share Split and Media Bonus announcements correctly.
I often advocate leading the market rather than following it and this is why. I believe this is by far the most profitable way to trade, not just because you are almost always buying players low to sell them high, but because when you don’t chase overbought players, you also reduce your risk of huge drops.
You can still make some good money with “following” trading particularly whilst the hype lasts. But it is rarely going to be as much as you could have made. And you also carry a much greater risk of taking steps backwards as we have seen with the drops to many heavily bought players in the last 6 weeks or so.
I spend a huge amount of time on research so it is no free lunch. It is hard work. And sometimes, my trading style requires a bit of patience because by nature, you often have a few weeks where you are waiting for the market to catch up with you.
But when they do, you really see the benefits and I find it much more satisfying to know I am positioned correctly as others come to me, rather than watching the risers and chasing other people in.
Risers
Wilfried Zaha
Zaha can be a nightmare to trade on because he is very unpredictable.
Not long ago he was swearing statements of loyalty to Palace. Now, he makes about as strong a statement of wanting to leave to seek Champions League football as you are likely to see.
I’ve long liked Zaha as a potentially strong performance and even media player if he got the right move to a big EPL club. If that happened the price would almost certainly rise significantly from it’s current level.
Given his comments, it looks extremely likely he will push for that move whether this window or next.
The only question mark for me is that his contract is long expiring in 2023. So, it would be a premium price in the £30m range according to transfermarkt.
That’s not beyond a big club. But it might take a bit of bargaining and if Zaha tries to force out there could be some decent drama in this.
Joao Felix
There was a sizeable dip after his Europa exit and a very uninspiring score of 0 as Benfica threw away a 2 goal advantage and crashed out of the Europa.
But, he bounced right back up again just a day later. It shows how sticky the prices of on trend young talent is right now.
As long as the big EPL links hold up many are clearly content to hold or even buy in the event of a dip in anticipation of another bull run on him. It’s possible.
But, as one of the first to highlight Felix’s potential in early season when he was first added to FI at the 60-70p mark, I have also been one of the first to say that his price is clearly just silly by now.
At least, if you are talking in rationale dividend terms.
But, with the trends as they are, there is mileage in the trade provided the big ticket links hold up. Manchester United, Liverpool, City are all there. Traders may also be happy to see him at Real Madrid.
There are banana skins linked like Wolves or even Juventus too, so there are risks as well.
Like with the Messi drop, the stubbornness of his price shows how important it is to respect the trends at the moment. Just don’t confuse respecting the trends with following into players who have been bought heavily already!
Fallers
Eden Hazard
A savaging for Hazard’s price after yet another report that the deal is nearing completion.
We had this sort of story just a week ago. And it is interesting that last week with similar news the price held and yesterday with the same news (from a notoriously dodgy source, Marca) people dumped hard.
We can only guess why this is. It can be as simple as a big holder selling heavily on the news which causes panic and it just snowballs. That would be my guess.
Nothing is straight forward with this trade though and it has been rumbling on for literally years now.
However, my personal opinion is that this will get wrapped up relatively quickly, although it may not be announced until the season end out of politeness.
Chelsea are under the gun because Hazard will not sign a new contract and his old one is winding down. Real are offering a reasonable fee in that scenario because they are flush with cash.
So I think everything just lines up nicely by now to see a relatively smooth move.
As we saw, that leads to autopilot sales because he is leaving the EPL and that is the “done thing”.
But, I think Hazard at Real is an enticing prospect for performance and also he will retain media interest even there. The British press will be interested in how he gets on in Spain.
So, if you are content to hold him for season start, I’d suspect there would be plenty of traders interested in him come pre-season.