Welcome back and I hope you had a good bank holiday weekend, amazing weather for it!
We have had a really bouncing market since the Media Announcement although overall it had a little step back yesterday.
It’s not that nobody is rising, they absolutely are. It’s just we are seeing some drops to balance that out now.
This is fairly normal as once a big announcement happens, people hit the obvious targets and then in the coming weeks, seek better and better value often away from the premium end of the market.
The biggest mover of prices is the transfer news at this time of year and it is really important to be all over it. In early or mid-season we can shake off a couple of bad games for a performance player and ignore it.
But a transfer can shut down or confirm at the drop of a hat so they require more monitoring.
As I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, this does not mean you have to respond to every rumour going, positive or negative. There is a lot of nonsense and click bait rumours thrown about from weak sources at this time of year.
Check the sources and try to verify them by seeing if there are any other direct sources. Often multiple news outlets will use the same weak source so look out for that.
It can be expensive and hard work if you get into the habit of buying and selling on the back of every clickbait rumour.
Risers
Ayoze Perez
Perez is in great form and despite 2 big scores recently he remains at a value price even after a rise.
We can’t expect that every week but he does have the consistent goal threat that makes a short term IPD punt still viable, especially with 2 favourable games in the last 3. Not completely crazy if he chalks up another big score in that time but it is a long shot.
More importantly at this time of year, he is picking up some transfer speculation to La Liga and if he ended up at a performance suitable club I think he could attract interest.
Hardly a high profile glamour trade but given the price and the multiple ways to win, I quite like it.
Rodrigo Hernandez
Fernandinho’s replacement has had many candidates this season and Hernandez from Atletico is the latest.
It could be a big fee transfer so there is some media mileage in this, certainly in the short term, if it happens.
Unless he is suddenly given a huge attacking licence, he is not a player that is particularly interested in scoring. He’s deep midfield.
Therefore, whilst he should be frequently putting up 120-160 baselines, it will be a rare event that it gets much better than that. So, long term performance prospects are fairly bleak.
As are the prospects for any long term media because outside of one off stories, people only want to read about goalscorers.
All that said, at the £1 mark I think it’s a pretty decent trade. He’s 22, talented, and getting more and more caps for Spain.
Therefore, in the current market, I think many traders could buy either a) mistaking him for a long term dividend returner given his high baselines and his destination to City or b) being aware of his weaknesses but knowing others will buy him and sticking around for the short term media that comes with the transfer.
Option B is by far the most profitable mindset in that mix but it is best not to be too greedy on these trades and take your profits relatively early.
Fallers
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Savage.
At time of writing he’s lost 27.3% in 24 hours.
If you want to keep your money you have to avoid hanging on forever to these pumps and stop following these charlatans with their favourite player as their profile picture who peddle them.
The injury is unlucky sure and this can happen to any player. And the pumps are fun on the way up. But when the price is so far beyond any kind of reality it is built on sand. The price is brittle and you always leave yourself open to a huge price drop should any misfortune occur.
Bad luck is bad luck but being prepared for bad luck is part of trading. Good risk management by not holding onto over valued players too long is essential to a big annual return because you minimise the number of times you take steps backwards like this.
Lots of people are not holding the player for any other reason than to be on the “Cho Cho Train”. So as soon as it looks like crashing people are straight out of there.
It won’t be long before the pumpers are back out claiming “but he’s better value than ever! It’s top up time!”. No, he was over valued before and if the drop continues it may come back to something like sensible value.
The transfer was already looking unlikely, and it looks even less likely now.
Without that, there is no real reason to hold him in the Summer. And given his performance returns will not in anyway justify the price, there are limited reasons to hold in early season for Chelsea either.
Maybe later, if he gets another call up to the England squad and looks good for a spot at the Euro’s. But I think for the Summer at least people have other fish to fry.
I’m not saying don’t buy this sort of player. I absolutely do and make a lot of money from them. But it is better to find them early, cut it off before the price gets completely out of control and reinvest that money in something that will rise more.
That way, you are almost always moving forward and not taking these steps back because you are managing your risk a lot better. We can’t feel sorry for ourselves and blame bad luck when stuff like this happens, we make our own beds.
Hot Gossip
Gareth Bale
If true, and bearing in mind the source is Marca which is generally garbage, this just got more interesting.
Last time Bale appeared in the Gossip I was keen on the transfer and said he looked almost certain of leaving.
But I was not sure whether an EPL club could or would take him at the price and that was key for the success of this trade.
Now it is being rumoured that Real are willing to cut losses and take a loan deal and that opens up some doors. I’m not totally sold on it given the source but it does kind of make sense.
Without that, I am not sure it is possible to offload him and Real have done this with Rodriguez before.
There is still the question of Bale’s huge wages so even as a loan it is not an easy deal. But if the loan story gained traction I think it improves the odds of it happening significantly, particularly to somewhere like Manchester United or even Tottenham.