It’s been a while since we have had any IPO’s to look through so let’s see what we can see. Here is the list.
Those who are confident dealing with IPO’s can skip straight to the players, but if you aren’t, here is a quick overview of things to be aware of.
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, teenager, big club” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if do buy them.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window of a couple of hours where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
Big list this time and I need to turn this around fast to give members time to read them before tomorrow. So, it’s light touch, and I will try a new style for this.
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
This is a work in progress and I will add ratings as I go, so if it is not finished, check back later.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
Everton Soares is one I have been flagging up for an IPO buy for a while. He is rumoured to be transfering possibly to Arsenal soon. Actually starting for Brazil regularly already and has some solid potential for FI purposes. Starts at £1.10 which is expensive but this is justified. Easy buy at £1.10 if you catch it at the time for me but the hype may get silly and chasing late is a risk. As is the transfer falling through.
Troy Parrott is in the Spurs squad for the Asia tour and looks set to get minutes. I only have limited under 18 stats to go on but he looks decent enough. With the way the market is I could see him getting attention and the “next Kane” squad will probably be out in force. Even though he is Irish. 60-80p would seem a no brainer but I’d be wary of piling in too late to what could be an obvious pump.
Florentino Luis – At Benfica at £1 this is an obvious trap for “Next Felix!” mugs. Defensive midfielder and nothing like him, no justification for this starting price at all. Could be a strong middle of the park player in future but has very little goal threat.
Thiago Almada – If I hear “next Messi” one more time I’ll flip out. Whilst that is a bit much, Almada does look good in FI terms and he is being tracked by Manchester City and Sporting apparently. He should get plenty of hype, and it could end up being a great long term hold. If we go for this we do run the risk however of the transfer falling through (or heading to Sporting) and him being stuck in ineligible leagues for 2-3 seasons. Will require plenty of attention to transfer news in the coming weeks if we want to go for this (or a quick flip).
Takefusa Kubo will get attention as a Real Madrid player but a simple google search suggests he may be registered as a youth player and not figure much. His stats are… ok. He has the right playing position but there isn’t much to get over excited about. The high starting price puts me off.
Teemu Puki strong goalscoring record at Championship level may get some interest. Unlikely to be a good performance player, may be decent for IPD but the £1 price tag means this is far from a bargain.
Gabriel Martinelli should see some pitch time for Arsenal and traders will note him for scoring in the Colorado Rapids friendly. Some decent performance stats and could come good. 80p isn’t a bad starting price.
Carlos Vinicius is a possible decent goalscorer, likely to be a poor performance player. 50p if I happened to be online at the time would not be bad. Would not want to be buying much above that though.
Goncalo Paciencia – Could be worth a punt, has some decent goals per minute stats and has scored in pre-season already. If space in the team opens up for him (Haller has moved on) he could do pretty well, 60p is a decent price.
Ishak Belfodil – Solid choice, a strong goal scoring record gives IPD potential at minimum, with some reasonable underlying stats too. Have to manage expectations at Hoffenheim but for 60p I think he looks good value and I think plenty of stat hunters will be targeting him even if your average joe might not.
Mohamed Ihattaren – Tricky. Has some talent but at PSV at 17 years old he is potentially many, many years away from a breakthrough. Could get hype as a young Netherlands player. Has some good stats but is so far away from actual dividend contention it is hard to justify the whopping £1.10 starting price. It’s hard to call whether this one will pump or not to be honest. I would be wary of it because I think people may tire of it quickly as it would be a very patient holder who kept it that long.