In case anyone hasn’t noticed the EPL transfer window closes tomorrow. The madness will not end there with the window across Europe staying open until the 2nd September (apart from Serie A which ends on the 23rd August).
With most of us having been banging on about Summer transfers non-stop since February, many traders actually seem quite bored of it but we must remember that in the real world the business has only really started hotting up in recent weeks.
Transfer deadline week can be a gamblers dream. Spare a thought for Dybala holders who saw a massive rise from £3 to £4 only for that to be wiped out in a matter of hours as the Manchester United link collapsed. In the latest twist, he is climbing again amid Spurs rumours.
We will see more of this before the window is done.
Gambling on transfers at this late stage is a choice. If you make it you have to be able to take it on the chin when things do not go your way. And most of the time, they do not. Most transfer links are not much more than click bait.
That golden rule of never chase a rise keeps you out of so much trouble here.
As does making sure that any player you punt on has decent value even if the hoped for transfer does not happen.
For those not interested in late transfer punts, we can be happy that the season proper kicks off on Friday with the EPL and Ligue 1 in action.
The opening match days will see limited numbers of teams in play so we will see some surprising winners with lower scores than usual.
And of course, flippers and the inexperienced will be jumping on players for scoring a goal whether they are any good or not.
The madness will not entirely go away when the transfer window shuts!
Risers
Christian Eriksen
A transfer to Manchester United does seem possible which would boost his profile and possibly bring him into more regular media dividend contention.
Is it likely? Hard to say. But Tottenham do have reasons to sell with his contract expiring. They would probably rather shift him abroad but if United put up more cash than a European club would for a quick deal they may be tempted.
Manchester United are not exactly renowned for their performance scoring prowess, although we have to keep that under review and look at pre-season and the early games with an open mind.
But, Eriksen is the sort who can deliver a big performance score particularly if given an advanced playing position and a share of set pieces.
I think he is capable of improving on last seasons showing, particularly with a bit of help from the new scoring matrix given his creativity.
Still lots of work to do on this transfer and it is a gamble. But at least it is not an all or nothing situation, if he looked like staying at Spurs or picked up later links to somewhere like Real again it’s not the end of the world.
*update* As I am writing this, breaking latest is that United are pulling out which may or may not be true. There could be some high blood pressure amongst traders this week!
Ayoze Perez
Those with their eye on pre-season will have noted Perez getting plenty of minutes and demonstrating strong goal threat, a decent overall contribution to the match and some chances created too.
Leicester have some strong expectations for success this year both in reality and on FI. And it’s not unjustfied. Whilst it can be tough for players from outside of the big 6 to punch through, Leicester are looking capable and have some talent.
There is some uncertainty about his playing position as he has been used as both a centre forward and on the wing but he looked good in either position.
I’ve been noting his potential for weeks in my members pre-season scouting area. In recent days, he’s started getting traction with Fantasy Football types who have spotted the goal/assist potential and his price has been increasing steadily since then from £1 to £1.27.
In pre-season until sides look more settled there is always a bit of uncertainty but Perez was and I would say still is a good punt at the price.
As an interesting aside – players who are gaining popularity on fantasy football will tend to get attention on FI and it is very common, despite the fact they are very different games.
They still are very different however with IPD’s and an increased emphasis on assists/creativity in the new scoring matrix, perhaps they have come a little bit closer together.
Fallers
Bruno Fernandes
With Dybala, Coutinho and Eriksen stealing the show, Fernandes has toppled down the pecking order as flavour of the week.
I am not sure he is any more or less likely to transfer than he ever was, though. In fact, the latest gossip is that a United agreement is close.
He has tons of potential and I have been banging on about Bruno since this site was first opened.
But, I would say traders are right to be a bit cautious on this one given that he is currently in an ineligible league and a collapsed transfer could leave him in limbo or facing a move to an unfavourable European destination.
If he did come to Manchester United and I saw it quickly though, £2.55 after a price drop from £3 would seem like a steal given his quality.
I wouldn’t want to chase it too long after any announcement though if he was already pumped.