Performance ratings for all notable EPL players have now been refreshed taking into account the new scoring matrix and performances from pre-season and the opening games.
Over the International break, I’ll be refreshing each league following the changes to the scoring matrix and what we have learned from pre-season and the opening games.
The changes should not be much of surprise to members who have been following the Scouting in recent weeks. Reasons for changes have in almost all cases been discussed there.
Usually, Scouting will detail the reason for each and every change. When dealing with so many changes after the new matrix it is not possible to provide a write up for every single one this time.
But, for convenience I have listed the ones that have improved or declined below.
The full tables, with EPL players updated, are now available in the usual place in the members area under defenders, midfielders and forwards respectively.
A Note on Performance Ratings
I put a great deal of time into compiling the performance ratings. They are sound, evidence based judgements of the real performance strength of players. I am a tough marker and a player has to do a lot to get 4 stars or more.
Some people may find the ratings surprising as they can be shockingly different to the general chatter you see about how good a player may or may not be on social media or the perception of how good a player is in reality.
This is because when assessing the ratings all hype and bluster is removed – they are an evidence based assessment of how likely the player is to deliver big performance scores consistently on the Football Index. I have a high degree of confidence in them.
However, as discussed often in Key Strategy, to succeed we must use the ratings and the Scouting information in combination with the trend information available on the Dashboard and consider whether they are good value or not.
A strong Current rating is an indicator they are likely to put up consistent strong performance scores. Whilst price rises often follow, that isn’t always the case if the player is off trend.
Equally, a player with a low Current rating is still capable of getting a rare win or scoring and soaring in price if their trend fit works.
So, I would absolutely not go out and automatically buy all 4 star or above players or sell any 2 and below. That is not the intended way to use them. The primary purpose of the ratings is to be the “hype buster”. They help us judge whether a player is really strong or not and then we can trade accordingly.
For example, I may be wondering whether a player who has won recently is worth holding even if they have risen in price. If they have a high rating and are likely to win again, I am more likely to keep them.
If on the other hand a player has just won or risen in price but actually has a weak rating and is unlikely to win again, I am much more likely to sell and take that profit before they blank a few times and traders realise their weakness.
I may also hold a striker at 2 stars if they are good value and good for IPD, that’s absolutely fine and the ratings do not reflect IPD appeal (that’s covered in Scouting).
A Note on the EPL
It’s worth noting that the EPL is my least favourite to trade in most of the time. There are a few reasons for this.
Firstly, it’s a saturated market. Traders, particularly when new, like to buy what they know. Most people also have a general good idea of who the “best” players are in the EPL and will tend to buy them heavily.
But they often have a poor perception of who is really good on FI vs who is getting the plaudits on Match of the Day or is doing well for Fantasy Football.
So you get huge price distortions for players who may be superb in reality but bang average for FI purposes and prices in general can be too high to find good value, particularly in well known players.
It’s also a tough league in general and many good teams have heavy rotation to boot.
You can make excellent profits here but it tends to be in less well known players or by spotting a little known target on the way up.
Out of interest, I just checked my portfolio and of the 32 players currently in there, just 4 are currently from the EPL for these reasons.
However, this price premium for EPL players and the ease with which you can sell them should definitely be taken advantage of when possible. In the Summer for example (as covered in State of the Market at the time) there were lots of well known players at value prices that have gone on to rise very nicely without really doing anything special.
And if you do find an EPL gem at a value price they are generally good to go big on. But much of the time, you will find me being a bit down on most well known EPL players because they will generally carry a high price tag often without doing much in FI terms to support it.
Improvers
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Andrew Robertson
Joel Matip
Oleksandr Zinchenko
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Ryan Fraser
Mason Mount
James Maddison
Curtis Jones
Kevin De Bruyne
Emiliano Buendia
Giovani Lo Celso
Filipe Anderson
Alexandre Lacazette
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Olivier Giroud
Tammy Abraham
Sebastien Haller
Reiss Nelson
Raheem Sterling
Anthony Martial
Marcus Rashford
Mason Greenwood
Joelinton
Teemu Pukki
Decliners
David Luiz
Marcus Alonso
Harry Maguire
Shkrodan Mustafi
Antonio Rudiger
Joao Cancelo
Lucas Torreira
Willian
Jorginho
Fabinho
Riyad Mahrez
Paul Pogba
Manuel Almiron
Allan Saint-Maximin
Patrick Roberts
James Ward-Prowse
Harry Winks
Leandro Trossard
Michy Batshuayi
Gabriel Jesus
Sergio Aguero
Leroy Sane
Mohamed Salah
Nicolas Pepe
Moise Kean
Richarlison