Time left to secure the old members price for the season:
It’s been a very interesting market in the last few weeks.
There was definitely that “international break feeling” where we saw some money leak out of FI as traders withdraw funds.
But this time during the break, I think traders have seen the dividends on offer and the price increases possible for players who perform well, particularly if traders can see them doing well all throughout the season.
That “full season story” of domestic league dominance, Europa/Champions League plus Euro 2020 combination is powerful. In some cases you can even find that with a nice transfer drama waiting at the end. Even better.
As the domestic leagues get back underway we may see some money that left flow back in. But probably not to the same targets.
The players who are delivering good scores and have that “full season story” will keep doing well.
And traders are increasingly switching on to how profitable the IPDs are now since they got a disproportionately high bump during the dividend increase. Strong goalscorers who aren’t always the best performance players can do very well now, provided the price is right.
There are definitely signs in the market that traders may start tiring of those high priced hype players who aren’t delivering. Some of them have real quality, some of them are built on sand.
Obviously the former is much better but in my view at some point the price can get out so far ahead of the talent it will always end up at best a mediocre trade. The best value went a long time ago. Even if the player comes good, your percent gain will not be huge and the opportunity cost is very high.
Those players who scored big early on but don’t look like repeating that are also at risk. There was huge over buying of many players who got a big early score when it was in all likelihood a bit of a fluke. It won’t take too many games with a poor score for the sort of trader who jumps in fast to jump out fast too.
And finally, as indicated by the “Doom Countdown Clock” at the top, this is the last week for readers to join at the original members price of £8.99 before the prices increase to £12.99 permanently after that for new joiners.
Those joining now get to keep the old price all season including the European Championship’s! For details of why the price is increasing and why members consistently say it is more than worth it, see here.
Risers
Memphis Depay
Depay walked the forward category with an impressive goal and 2 assists securing his second win of the season.
These consistent winners are exactly what I am looking for.
Give or take, I know who the consistent players will be already (and who won’t be!). I put hundreds of hours into player research in pre-season and the early games to make sure that is true. I have to continually re-evaluate of course, in 3-4 games time plenty will have changed but that’s why I review the stats on every game every week.
I can definitely confirm that there is a huge gap between what you see on social media about players and how good they actually are on FI.
At least until they start stringing wins together, then the social media chatter changes tone pretty quickly.
Having stacked the odds in my favour by researching the consistent winners, all I need is for them to come through on the performance scoring consistently so that other people learn who they are and buy in later.
Sometimes, that can be a cue to sell if the price has now run beyond the ability and the trend fit. However, this season, the trends (and the new scoring matrix) will funnel traders towards an increasingly narrow group of players. And the players who win consistently and fit that “full season story” are capable of acheiving some pretty big price tags.
Depay has the ingredients to be one of those players, and always had them when considering him in the new scoring matrix and in a European Championship year. He certainly featured positively in my pre-season scouting for those reasons. I think people are starting to see that now as he has flown to £2.66 and delivered two wins.
But as long as his stats hold up, the price doesn’t get *really* silly, and he looks like he can keep challenging for wins, I am in no mood to be ditching consistent winners with a strong trend fit this early in the season. I think they have further to go.
Fallers
Paul Pogba
It’s notable to see Pogba still on the way down even after the transfer window has closed.
My June/July thinking was that he would rebound strongly if he stayed at Manchester United. By early August I had become a bit more sceptical and that view seems to be winning out.
I think the FI market does mature over time and change. Perhaps a year or six months ago Pogba would have flown but as transfer windows go by and traders see what happens to players who transfer out of the EPL, people learn lessons and the market adapts.
Whilst a big dividend haul for Pogba is near inevitable, traders probably feel like there is only one way this story ends – Pogba packing his bags at the end of the season and a price fall.
So, it actually makes sense that traders are willing to leave the dividends on the floor and walk on by here. Especially if you think of the sort of traders who like to horde the premium players in big numbers.
Many of them are cash rich time poor types who want a steady dividend return, a gradual price increase and low maintenance portfolios.
Pogba is far from low maintenance these days and even outside of a window you have to be hanging on every news statement for an indication.
We probably haven’t seen the last twist and turn. An early tippling out with the coach and a spree of dividend wins might see him bounce back yet. But it needs to happen sooner rather than later because I think within the transfer windows themselves holders will be nervous.