Story So Far
As I wrote on the public post today, the bonus played out pretty much as I expected from the original Bonus Strategy Guide.
So there is no point repeating all that here, instead this members article will focus on what comes next. (This guide is not getting unlocked after a few days, that’s something I only do very occasionally).
As of 11:42 when I have started writing this the drops are not that severe and are concentrated in players I would have expected to drop. So, it is very possible to have dodged this and we should have. In fact, I am still making money this morning personally.
Let’s look at the top 20 fallers briefly because it’s interesting:
This is the current top 20 fallers list as of this moment. With the only possible exception of Neymar who I have said is expensive but can make a case for being worth it, I have indicated in Scouting that every single player on this list is over valued in recent history. Every single one.
It absolutely is possible to see these drops coming and dodge them and we should. The way to make your own luck is to avoid holding on to over priced players too long. It works. And in this market it’s the difference between being a trader who is almost always making progress and one who is very stop and start.
If you take the opposite list and look at the top 20 risers, there are still a few overpriced offenders there, but it’s full of quality too: Kroos, Jorginho (with penalties), Under, Gnabry, Harit, Mahrez, Bergwijn, Curtis Jones, Chiesa, Thorgan Hazard. All players (possibly not Bergwijn although he has been covered if not in the last weeks certainly months) who I have been covering positively recently.
The day is young so let’s see what happens but I think my initial view from the original guide is right, I don’t expect a really big sell off (though some may make it out to be on Social Media) but really the ones who lose serious money will be the people who failed to manage risk appropriately as per my guide.
As I mentioned in State of the Market yesterday, I think a day or two of caution is warranted whilst the market settles.
One seperate but related point to note is today’s announcement (long expected) that media will be opened out to all players not just the top 200. This could have a negative effect on the big premium media players if people panic over that. In reality, players outside of the top 200 rarely win media anyway.
The bigger problem for media players right now is the squeeze on media days as more performance match days are created e.g with the nations league and qualifiers.
So, I’d be cautious on any premium media buys right now.
We can buy dips but only where the dip causes genuine value to appear. A dip for an overpriced player (worse if they are actually weak as well) does not count. They are likely still overpriced.
Other than that, I don’t think we need to do much different for the 5% bonus
For those following site Key Strategy, we should by now have a core of elite performance suitable players with a strong “full season” fit (i.e domestic strength, CL Europa League, Qualifiers and Euro 2020 involvement).
With this “core” we can hold them at higher prices than normal because the trends will funnel traders towards them as the season goes on. Provided of course all the reasons we bought that player remain true (i.e good performance suitability, national team starting spots etc etc).
Supplementing that core we can have IPD players, longer term cheap prospects (my wonderkid series is on-going for some ideas, with another one out on Thursday this week), and I am still trading in some elite veterans as we are still early in the season.
If depositing for the 5% bonus I would do so early as I mentioned yesterday in State of the Market, certainly by this week and not waiting until the week before it ends.
I think we will see twin pressures this month that may cancel each other out.
Some people will be withdrawing gradually to take money out they don’t really want in FI that they deposited for the 10% bonus. That’s a drag on the market.
However, some people will want to pump money in to get the 5% bonus, which is a boost for the market.
Overall, I think if we avoid an initial panic caused by traders who lost money holding over valued players, things should settle and we don’t really need to treat this 5% bonus period much differently.
The only thing I would say is that in the week before the 5% bonus ends, we may see increased buying as people try to increase net buys.
This is why I say get the money in early to players who are a fit for your strategy anyway. You may catch that rise, and you want to avoid piling in late if possible.
I don’t expect a huge sell off after the 5% bonus because 5% is fairly modest in comparison and I don’t think people will stress too much about it.