It’s been a while since we have had any IPO’s to look through and it’s a big list so let’s see what we can see. Here is the list.
Those who are confident dealing with IPO’s can skip straight to the players, but if you aren’t, here is a quick overview of things to be aware of.
IPO's 101
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
IPO's 11/11/2019
Big list this time and I need to turn this around fast. I’ll not mention every player because their is a lot of dross in the list, although there are a few decent picks in there.
Method:
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
This is a work in progress and I will add ratings as I go, so if it is not finished, check back later.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
Incidentally, I think there is less hype than usual. A poor field of IPOs, higher spreads, and less mania about youth are the contributing factors in my view.
Player Ratings
- Ansu Fati - Potential:
Hype: - Eduardo Camavinga - Potential:
Hype: 
- Harvey Elliot - Potential:
Hype: - Matthew Longstaff - Potential:
Hype: - Yusuf Yazici - Potential: Hype:
- John Lundstram - Potential:
Hype: - Sekou Koita - Potential: Hype:
- Sam Lammers - Potential: Hype:
- Ruslan Malinovsky - Potential: Hype:
- Gabriel Magalhaes - Potential: Hype:
- Fikayo Tomori - Potential: Hype:
- Boulaye Dia - Potential: Hype:
- Wesley Fofana - Potential:
Hype: 
Comments
Ansu Fati
Definitely the jewel in the crown and it’s not undeserved. I’ve already reviewed him in Scouting this week so I’ll copy that here for convenience.
Potential wise, it’s considerable. Were he to replicate his numbers over consistent 90 minutes over consistent starts, I’d have no problem suggesting a rating.
But back to reality, he’s 17. Seeing plenty of minutes but rarely getting the full 90. If FI had scored him in the last 10 games, you’d see mostly poor scores except vs Valencia on 14 September where he scored and assisted.
He’ll likely be rotated. As a young player he’ll probably be inconsistent and take years to develop.
And yet. People will go nuts for him amidst the hype in all likelihood.
If this can be bought relatively early, around £2.50 to £3 or so there would be value there and you can ride that to a nice quick profit.
I would not buy beyond that though if I was not one of the first in.
Nor would I be likely to hold at anything £3.50 and above for very long, because the rotation is likely to give him some weak scores and that can drag on the price.
He would need to become a first team regular playing 90 minutes every week for big scores to be consistent and it would be a leap to say that will happen anytime soon.
Classic case of one you can profit from with smart trading – but never become the true believer who thinks he has found the next Messi, it’s a mugs game.
Eduardo Camavinga
A hype buy. To realistically profit from this you need to be lucky to get him at the starting price of £2 and then flip him to anyone foolish enough to pay more.
Only the prospect of a transfer gives him credible value for the media (would a young player even get that much really?).
A defensive midfielder and no credible case to be made for him being a strong FI player beyond hope/speculation.
Harvey Elliot
He’s 16 so limited stats are available but from what we have, yes, he’s got some potential fit for FI. Playing position is right, he gets on the ball, has some threat, creates chances. Nice.
Unfortunately he is priced at a level he cannot realistically hope to justify in the coming seasons.
He’s released already and interesting that he has not been ferociously bought over £2 – I think a couple of months ago people would have piled into this.
But people are starting to learn about the risks involved in very long range youth picks.
I would definitely avoid this but see if people forget about him in a few months and look at it then because he’s got potential (probably in 2 years mind!)
John Lundstram
The Fantasy football hero!
Could he do it on FI too?
Maybe, actually. For a smaller club player he’s got some great stats. Would expect some decent baselines and he can score and assist to add polish.
Small club players do get dragged back by their team as they don’t always win.
But, he’s pretty good and if he did win I wouldn’t be totally surprised. But, it will be a case of holding for 10 games hoping for a win rather than expecting an instant impact which is common for decent players at smaller clubs.
He’s settling at £1.40 and I don’t think that’s too bad given he has some IPD appeal too. I’d probably wait a week or so though because you might find some flippers are still trying to come out.
Fikayo Tomori
Cheeky of FI to try to get away with IPO’ing Tomori starting at £1.50.
Decent CB with some good passing stats, should see some decent baselines but no real reason to believe you will get big scores often.
You could buy Zouma for 61p if interested in this sort of player.
Sekou Koita
19 years old Forward at Salzburg. Better. If you believe the transfer (Milan are rumoured) he could be a decent pick.
Stats in weak leagues are often way over inflated and will crash to earth in a Big 5 league. But, there is enough here to suggest he could be a decent FI player. See’s plenty of the ball for a forward, and has been scoring for fun with 8 so far this season.
Settling around £1.40, really, for this sort I’d be wanting to pay no more than £1.20 given all the things that need to happen for him to come good.
Maybe one to look at later rather than charging in but he’s one with some potential if he did get a move to a club like Milan.
Matthew Longstaff
Not a bad long range prospect but I would not get too excited.
At starting price of £1 for a patient trader, maybe. Some decent stats but not really enough goals in the career at youth level to excite me, and given his playing position that makes sense.
One I’d review once any hype dies down and if you could get him at a low price maybe.
Sons of famous players and brothers of current players often get more attention than they deserve and FI are relying on this for their “up to £3” valuation because there is nothing else to back that up.
Wesley Fofana
Starting at £1 going up to £2.50 for a CB at Saint Etienne with almost no credible evidence of any kind of FI suitability? I can only assume FI must be on some kind of powerful halucinogen.
Sam Lammers
22 year old PSV forward. Not bad, goal threat is definitely there historically and he has better than average baseline stats for a forward.
Recovering from a serious injury though that may drag on for months.
That makes it hard to see a transfer happening as he won’t have long left of the season to make his case.
If fit I’d quite like him at £1 but I can’t see a reason to rush to buy given the injury.
Yusuf Yazici
This is more like it, particularly if he can be snapped up for under £1. And particularly if he is listed as a forward rather than midfielder.
22, winger or central midfield, playing regularly for Lille and Turkey.
Should be capable of a decent baseline, has some goal threat and assist potential as well. I can see him posting a few decent scores.
One of the best picks in what has been a pretty dire list so far and the price seems relatively kind too.
Boulaye Dia
Not bad for an IPD player if he can be had for the starting 60p or up to 75p.
22, forward, playing for Reims, 3 goals in 12 this season in the league, has the threat to deliver more.
Weak performance player though so definitely for IPD rather than performance wins.
Gabriel Magalhaes
Decent 21 year old Brazilian centre back at Lille, getting regular games and he’s got some nice distribution stats. Ball playing defenders are popular with big clubs so that never hurts the transfer prospects, and it builds solid baselines.
He does lack any major cutting edge that would turn that baseline into a big score though, and as we know, that sort of player has struggled this season even at the top level.
At 50p starting price I think it’s solid, I wouldn’t chase it over 75p though.
Ruslan Malinovskiy
26, plays for Atalanta and Ukraine in attacking midfield. Decent goal threat actually and in some games, particularly for Ukraine, he’s got some very solid involvement stats. Does for Atalanta too but not quite as strong.
Not made any assists this season but he’s making some chances. Capable of a competitive midfield score a few times a season and the Ukraine involvement adds an extra dimension.
Looks a nice pick for 50p – 75p ideally, up to £1 at a stretch.