We go again and I curse FI for making me get up early. Here is the list.
Those who are confident dealing with IPO’s can skip straight to the players, but if you aren’t, here is a quick overview of things to be aware of.
IPO's 101
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
IPO's 22/11/2019
I’ve now been through the list, which is a fairly weak field with a few decent potential players, notably Skov-Olsen, Adria Pedrosa and Jonathan David if looking for real potential.
Fabio Silva and Brandon Williamson the most likely hype targets for a flip.
I haven’t mentioned every player because their is a plenty of dross – if the player isn’t mentioned it’s because I didn’t think them worth it.
Method:
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
Player Ratings
- Fabio Silva - Potential:
Hype: 
- Brandon Williams - Potential:
Hype: 
- Jonathan David - Potential: Hype:
- Andreas Skov Olsen - Potential: Hype:
- Gaetano Castrovilli - Potential: Hype:
- Ruben Vargas - Potential: Hype:
- Adria Pedrosa - Potential: Hype:
- Cody Gakpo - Potential: Hype:
- Ferro - Potential: Hype:
- Dario Benedetto - Potential:
Hype: 
- Robert Quaison - Potential: Hype:
- Ryan Christie - Potential: Hype:
- Lisandro Martinez - Potential: Hype:
- Ander Barrenetxea - Potential: Hype:
- Alex Claude Maurice - Potential: Hype:
- Steven Alzate - Potential: Hype:
- Jack Stacey - Potential: Hype:
Comments
Brandon Williams
Young Manchester United left back who has had a few starts. All you need to know!
Likely to be an obvious target for the IPO flippers.
Had a decent debut but the stats for senior or youth are nothing special for FI purposes. And with even senior Man Utd defenders weak for FI purposes – the prospects are not great in reality unless you really see him as an England level full back in a few years.
Even then the starting price of 80p is far too high for a rational trader.
Adria Pedrosa
21 year old Espanyol and Spain U21 left back.
Has decent potential, with the Spain U21 stats for involvement particularly good, suggesting at a bigger club than Espanyol he might do better than his middling stats there.
He’s scored plenty with a high Expected Goals for a full back. gets plenty of crosses in and dribbles, though the crosses rarely hit the mark and he needs more assists.
Overall, a good prospect and I’d be happy with this for 60-70p if looking for a long term hold. May go a bit under the radar of most initially.
Ander Barrenetxea
17 year old Real Sociedad midfielder.
FI have either gone temporarily nuts or don’t understand their own game to start this at £1 to £1.80.
The one highlight is Spain U19 appearances, mostly from the bench.
In the stats at youth level, there is nothing to indicate he will be a good FI player, in fact, it’s the opposite.
Ferro
Young, well regarded CB making his way into the Benfica set up and has been named on the bench for Portugal.
Generally well regarded as a future talent, he’s got some decent numbers for a centre back, but like most of them, nothing that will regularly make him stand out on FI scoring.
Could be worth it if you see him getting a big transfer and being driven up in price by a big club link. But the starting price of 70p is high and it is probably one I would look at again in a couple of months when any hype has gone.
Steven Alzate
Some decent stats here in patches but not spectacular. Not a bad long range pick but he’s going to struggle at Brighton. His recent starts for Colombia add a bit of shine, and he’s got a few goals in him for the club.
Not a terrible pick at 50p for a very patient trader but not that exciting.
Jack Stacey
Some decent goals and assist stats at League One level for Luton for a full back. Stats for Bournemouth are much less impressive.
May get bought by people pumping the Alexander-Arnold “flying fullback” line but nothing really spectacular here.
Alex Claude-Maurice
21 year old Nice striker.
Decent stats in Ligue 2 for goals at least, but much more likely to be an IPD forward than a performance winner.
Since moving to Nice this season, it’s less impressive, without a goal and soft threat in general for a forward.
Nothing really here unless you put a lot of faith in weak goalscoring at a lower league.
I’d be more interested if he looked like scoring for Nice but he doesn’t, not regularly.
Gaetano Castrovilli
22 year old Fiorentina midfielder who has made a debut for Italy.
This is a bit better. Should be a midfielder on FI and he’s managed 3 goals in 12 this season, solid output for a midfielder.
But, his baselines won’t be high enough to compete regularly in midfield realistically. He does have assist potential which is a bonus.
Not bad, and at 80p I think it’s a good shout but above £1.10 or so it gets shaky.
You are unlikely to see immediate wins, but may get a bit of IPD and really it’s a bet on his long term development and a big transfer, Inter are linked so that’s not impossible.
Gaetano Castrovilli
22 year old Fiorentina midfielder who has made a debut for Italy.
This is a bit better. Should be a midfielder on FI and he’s managed 3 goals in 12 this season, solid output for a midfielder.
But, his baselines won’t be high enough to compete regularly in midfield realistically. He does have assist potential which is a bonus.
Not bad, and at 80p I think it’s a good shout but above £1.10 or so it gets shaky.
You are unlikely to see immediate wins, but may get a bit of IPD and really it’s a bet on his long term development and a big transfer, Inter are linked so that’s not impossible.
Lisandro Martinez
21 year old Argentine playing for Ajax.
Switches between CB and central/defensive midfield.
Very little interest as a CB (apart from Ajax hype which may be enough for some). But recently, he’s played as a midfielder and here the stats are decent all be it in the soft Dutch league.
He’ll be high baseline, and has a bit of goal threat or assist potential.
For the low starting price of 50p it’s quite good for a patient trader. Would not be over keen closer to £1 as there is a long way to go here.
Cody Gakpo
20 year old PSV striker, which may attract attention in itself.
Weak record overall. To convince in the Dutch league you need to be crushing the key stats and 2 goals in 13 appearances in the Eredivisie is not enough.
Does play for Netherlands U21 which is a bonus.
Much better record at youth level, which is not translating to the senior side.
Could get attention but he looks well behind other Dutch talent.
Jonathan David
19 year old Gent forward.
Pretty good – good goal scoring record with 9 in 15 games in the league, better than average involvement and can assist occasionally too.
Belgian league stats must be taken with a massive pinch of salt. But he does look to have potential and at £1 to £1.20 I’d be happy with this.
Ryan Christie
24 year old Celtic and Scotland winger.
Not bad, some decent numbers for involvement, probably not quite enough for huge baselines. But his threat and assist potential are good.
Have to bear in mind it’s a weak league and these stats will likely come down if he ever transfers to an eligible league.
But not bad, especially if Scotland qualify where he may be a decent cheap punt. But I’d want him close to the 50p starting price or not at all.
Fabio Silva
Next FELIX! That’s going to be the social media chatter.
He’s 17, starting for Porto and Portugal U19. Showing an excellent eye for goal but overall, shaping up as a good goalscorer, poor performance player type.
If you sign up to the wonderkid hype, he can fly based on that especially since FI have slapped a £1.40 to £2.20 price tag on which creates hype in itself.
(I think people assume FI must know something – trust me, when it comes to evaluating players for IPO they don’t and I’m not sure they even try).
I’d suspect he’ll be good in 2-3 years but it’s too long range to be justifying this kind of money in my view.
Should be a good flip if you can get on early.
Robin Quaison
26 year old Mainz and Sweden forward.
It’s a decent pick.
Unlikely to be a great performance player, however, he’s a dependable goalscorer for Mainz and particularly Sweden managing 5 in qualifying.
So there are IPD returns in the offing and I think people will fancy him as a Euro 2020 tournament punt later on.
I’d be happy here at anything between 50p-80p.
Andreas Skov-Olsen
19 year old Bologna and Denmark U21 winger.
A decent potential player and he particularly crushes it for Denmark U21 scoring 6 in 5 recently.
The domestic form for Bologna is much more subdued, with rotation, weak threat, limited involvement although some assist potential. It’s not good. His previous form in the Danish league is much better.
Overall I think he has good potential, particularly if categorised as a forward. Midfield could be more difficult as his baselines are not super high.
The starting price of 90p is fair and I’d probably go up to £1.20 at a stretch.
However, he hasn’t yet broken through to the Denmark squad. With limited prospects at Bologna, ideally, we’d want to see him playing for Denmark.
For that reason, it may be one that can be reviewed in a month or two rather than any pressing need.
Pau Torres
Well regarded 22 year old CB at Villarreal, and has made a debut for Spain.
Looks decent enough but as for so many CB’s, no real reason to think he will be a performance contender.
You need a cheap starting price here and hope for a transfer, and he does have Arsenal links.
60-70p is a good bet but beyond that I’m not keen.
Ruben Vargas
21 year old Augsburg and Switzerland winger.
Not bad. Particularly if classified as a forward. He’ll struggle in midfield.
Switzerland helps for the Euros but big scores at Augsburg will be few and far between and he’s only just moved there so transfer prospects are limited.
The £1 starting price is a turn off but he’s not bad.
Dario Benedetto
29 year old Marseille striker.
In a dry spell in recent games but he’s a solid goalscorer, with 5 goals this season already. Not a great performance player, mind, so definitely one for IPD.
At the starting price of 60p, up to 75p, a solid if unspectacular pick.