At time of writing the FI news site has been down all morning so I’m working off a list posted on Twitter (I hope it’s right!).
Those who are confident dealing with IPO’s can skip straight to the players, but if you aren’t, here is a quick overview of things to be aware of.
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
Reinier and De La Cruz the clear hype trades, but they do have potential FI ability too. It’s just extremely long range and they are likely to get overpriced very quickly.
Outside of the hype trading and flipping, I think the low key Onisiwo is an interesting punt that has some decent IPD appeal down at 30p, and an outside chance of a decent performance score or two.
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
17 year old Flamengo and Brazil U20 forward. Will cause quite a stir in the market as he is already being linked to top European clubs with a big £60m release clause.
FI suitability… as a forward a strong yes, midfield is more difficult. But there’s enough there to say he’s got some FI potential and is not a no hoper.
The main issue is how long range this is in reality… he’s 17 and a lot of money has to be paid to bring him to Europe and then he’ll be years in development.
That said, people are going to buy him and at the starting price of £1 or up to £1.30 you’d be very happy and with a transfer window coming up you’d have some time to evaluate. Would expect it to push to £1.75 though in the hysteria and I would be wary of charging in at that price.
Nicolas De La Cruz
22 Uruguay midfielder playing for River Plate, and has some Manchester City transfer rumours.
Potentially quite good assuming you could get him playing 90 minutes. Something of a catch 22 – you need the City link to give him value but at City is he really going to be getting in that team anytime soon? Hello rotation option.
That said, anything close to the starting price of £1 would be excellent but again if it flies up towards £1.75 I’d leave it well alone.
For me this would be a transfer flip that if I could buy at £1.25 or under I would, hope for hype to push it towards £2 then bank the profit before the link can fall over.
27 year old Mainz striker. Unlikely to generate huge amounts of excitement BUT he does have some decent goal threat and assist potential. Goal threat in the last 4 games has been very good, scoring 2 and assisting 2 in 2 matches.
Involvement generally weak but does seem to work hard and can rack up points for interceptions, dribbles, aerial duels, recoveries.
At 30p starting price, actually a bit of a dark horse who will have a decent bit of IPD in him and maybe even a sneaky performance win at some point.
Quite like this as a cheeky punt that may fly under the radar a bit.
19 year old Benfica Left Back with some minutes for the senior Benfica team and Portugal U21’s too.
A good prospect, with many of the features we look for in full backs including crosses/dribbles/interceptions. Creates chances and some goal threat.
Price is the issue, at a starting value of 60p which will probably be closer to 80p it feels like too much to pay for a pick that is very long range. Likely to get a bit of attention on the day but then fade badly unless he picks up a transfer rumour which feels unlikely at this stage.
22 year old striker at Mainz. May get some traction as he is on loan from Liverpool. In truth, he doesn’t look even close to going back there because he’s struggling at Mainz.
Nothing special about his FI relevant stats either unless you count a strong run of goal scoring on loan in the soft Belgian league in early 2019. I could probably have a go in that league.
60p starting… would be a pass from me but you may get the hype crowd pushing the Liverpool link
20 year old CB starting to play for Ajax now.
Looks decent enough but like many CB’s, no reason to believe he is any use for FI purposes.
60p… you will likely see people buying just because it’s Ajax and that’s ok. But anything close to £1 is ridiculous.
19 year old Brazil winger at Shakhtar. Decent enough prospect but having just signed for Shakhtar a move looks unlikely anytime soon.
Could get attention just for the Brazil U20 minutes this year.
Particularly if classed as a forward he could go on to do well in a couple of seasons or so but it feels too far away to warrant the money.
80p for a very patient trader would be fine but over £1 would be a hard no from me.
24 year old Rangers midfielder, whose best feature is vague links to Juventus.
Should be a high baseline deep midfielder but has very little cutting edge in terms of goals or assists that will make him a particularly relevant FI player.
80p to £1.30 is much more than he is worth however if you believe the Juventus link and can trade around that it could be good if you get him to the lower end of his price range.