January 24, 2020

Quickfire reviews of these 6 IPO’s for today. If you are new to IPO’s, my primer on them is below. Everyone else can skip straight to the players.

IPO's 101

The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.

It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.

However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.

As for the process…

Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.

It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.

So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.

However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).

Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.

And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.

Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.

You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.

That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!

IPO's 24/01/2020

Summary

2 potentials in Emerson Aparecido and Idah, and 4 that don’t have much purpose other than filling out the list and turning a quick buck for FI and flippers.

It’s actually getting pretty frustrating to see some of this IPD garbage peddled for such high prices. It’s getting worse.

I accept that all players need to be on there for completeness. They do not need starting prices at twice their warranted value. It feels like desperate profiteering at a time when the market is likely to fall for it.

Emerson Aparedico and Idah would be the clear favourites for initial hype and flipping. Emerson has good long term prospects, but it’s dampened by the high starting price.

If not trying to flip Emerson, I’d leave him well alone and consider picking him up in the next month or two after the inevitable dump.

Method:

star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).

And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).

If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.

The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.

Player Ratings

Comments

Emerson Aparecido

Some interest here for the Real Betis and Brazil U23 right back.

He has an interesting arrangement where Barcelona paid half of his transfer fee, in exchange for being able to sign him on the cheap at the end of next season if they want to.

These links to Barcelona and Brazil will be enough to get interest.

Performance wise, he has a decent goals and assists record, particularly recently. I expect the hype merchants will point to this. In truth, at Betis, he’s unlikely to have the baselines to make those goals or assists count for much.

Big scores are possible though, just fairly rare events.

A good potential player, dampened by the very high starting price of £1 to £1.30.

In this January silly season, I’d expect quick buying for a flip, but I would not be chasing anywhere beyond £1.50 and if I could get a profit, I’d probably lock it in rather than expect immediate big scores.

Adam Idah

A well regarded young talent, playing for Norwich U23 but he has made his senior debut recently. Also plays for Republic of Ireland U21 .

Will have got attention for a recent FA Cup hatrick vs Preston. Looked much more subdued against Manchester United, but that is understandable.

Should be in the mould of a decent goal scorer, weak performance player if all goes well for him.

Probably one of the two IPOs I can see getting real hype today.

No real shorter term performance prospects. Would be reliant on getting a goal or two and getting bigger club rumours later. Possible, but I think it’s an obvious pump and dump that will rise then drop again before long.

£1.30-£1.60 is a stupidly high starting price, with zero real value in it.

Pablo

28 year old Bordeaux defender. Looks like a filler for the list. No reason I can see that would make this worth buying. People may try to flip it but I can’t see long term value here.

Zinedine Ferhat

Not particularly exciting, 26 year old Nimes winger.

Decent assist potential, better goal threat than his 1 goal this season would let on. But doesn’t have the baselines to make goals count anyway.

Would consider as an IPD option if cheaper but for the silly £1.05-£1.35 starting price far superior IPD players are available already.

Hichem Boudaoui

Filler. He’s young and plays for a good club in Nice. That could be enough for some to jump on so he may be a flip target in a weak field.

Poor baselines. Poor goal threat. Poor assist potential. Weak.

Philipp Lienhart

Reasonable Freiburg CB, 26 and Austrian. But again, nothing exciting at all. Starting price of £1.10 to £1.40 is borderline offensive.

Best feature is fringe Austrian involvement for the Euros where he may make the squad (I’m trying to find positives!).

Decent baseline stats in some games but really, only the very top CB’s are getting a look in in the current scoring system, and even they can struggle.