Quickfire reviews of these 3 IPO’s for today.
If you are new to IPO’s, my primer on them is below. Everyone else can skip straight to the players.
IPO's 101
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
IPO's 28/01/2020
Method:
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
Player Ratings
- Sebastiano Esposito - Potential:
Hype: 
- Georgios Kyiraakopoulos- Potential:
Hype: 
- Robin Le Normand - Potential:
Hype:
Comments
Sebastiano Esposito
17 year old Inter and Italy U19 striker, the obvious hype pick of the day.
Has been making some appearances for Inter mostly from the bench. He started 1 game vs Genoa in December, scoring 1 goal because Lukaku gifted him the penalty with the game won already.
Particularly notable is his 4 goals in the UEFA U17 Championship for Italy U17 in May 2019.
Could keep making some sub appearances, though there is plenty of talking of going out on loan to a smaller Serie A club.
He’s a good prospect, but as I mentioned in the last IPOs, this profiteering from the IPO lunancy is getting worse.
At a starting price of £1.70 to £2.00, there is just zero real value there. It makes a mockery of the claim that you can unearth untried talent and watch them grow if they are being listed from the start above the price of many first teamers at the age of 17.
With the market as it is, I’d expect rapid buying regardless but how long that price stays high, I’m not sure, I’d expect plenty of flippers to come out of it later.
At £1 and under mark which is what youngsters should start at it would be a definite yes, as it is, it’s one I will personally leave well alone.
Georgios Kyriakopoulos
23 year old Greek left back playing for Sassuolo on loan from Tripoli.
Bang average would be the description that comes to mind. Cannot think of a single reason to buy, has zero goal threat, some limited assist potential and mediocre baseline numbers.
A starting price of 80p to £1.10 seems like an attempt to exploit the frothy January market for a quick buck, which in case you can’t tell, I don’t like very much.
Robin Le Normand
23 year old Sociedad centre back.
For a centre back, actually pretty good. Decent passing numbers out from the back, and good passing accuracy too. Should have a pretty decent baseline.
Does have some reasonable threat as he gets up for set pieces, scoring 2 this season so far.
I quite like him, and at his 55p to 85p starting price, he would look a decent long term hold at 55-65p.
A fairer starting price. Makes you wonder whether whoever does the IPO’s for FI really knows how to value players correctly at all. Or whether they even try!