Quickfire reviews of these 5 IPO’s for today.
If you are new to IPO’s, my primer on them is below. Everyone else can skip straight to the players.
IPO's 101
The first thing to know is that on the day of an IPO, who is actually good long term or not doesn’t have much to do with who will get bought heavily as soon as they are released.
It’s how much they fit the hype trends that matters on day one and “attacking player, big club, usually young” is all the analysis you really need to know who will get bought first.
However, knowing who the real prospects are is still valuable because it means we know whether buying and holding them is worth it even after any initial price rise. And we need to know which ones we should dump fast if we do buy them and manage to get a profit.
As for the process…
Getting on IPO’s early is truly awful. You get a random time window where they may release and if you really want to get them for the IPO price you have to sit there constantly refreshing your page the whole time.
It’s frustrating. And then when it does happen, you will be beaten to it by bots and possibly by other people who were just that bit quicker. If you are 20-30 seconds late? Probably too late.
So, personally, I just don’t bother with all that unless there is a rare gem that I really, really want. On the upside, if you do pull it off, you can get a bargain.
However, it’s a snake pit. Most people have no idea whether the IPOs are any good or not and are simply trying to flip them. So if you do miss the initial rise do not chase into it unless you are certain there is something worth buying and the price is still right (AND you can stomach a drop to flippers).
Personally, unless I think there is a real gem I let the price settle for a day and then have a look at it then.
And one final thing. Most IPOs are long shots these days. If they are established players they are generally on the Index already.
Even a “good” one is probably a long way from breaking through and the risk of them failing is usually high even for the best ones.
You either need to be flipping them or have iron patience. They are high risk trades and that is why you have to be getting them at rock bottom prices.
That said, let’s see if we can find any talent!
IPO's 28/01/2020
Summary
Some criminal overpricing here in Bellingham, Cash and Bradaric. Mild overpricing in Nordin. Bellingam the obvious hype pick and whilst the flip is possible a team bus full of high class escorts couldn’t convince me to hold beyond that.
And bizarrely, a reasonable price for the best pick of the bunch by a mile – Aouchiche who I would be very happy to have as a long term hold at anything under £1.50.
Method:
star rating, the usual potential performance rating members know and love. (Bear in mind I often just have youth league data to work with on IPO’s so they are even more long range than usual but I generally have a fair idea).
And a second star rating which is the hype factor (how much interest I think they will get at release).
If I have any particular comments about the players I’ll add that at the end.
The players I think will get the most hype are at the top.
Player Ratings
- Jude Bellingham - Potential:
Hype: 
- Adil Aouchiche - Potential: Hype:
- Matty Cash - Potential: Hype:
- Domagoj Bradaric - Potential: Hype:
- Arnaud Nordin - Potential: Hype:
Comments
Jude Bellingham
Obvious hype trade, with a frankly silly starting price designed to pull in flippers and the naive and again, spin a quick cheap buck for FI.
FI are generally good at staying away from most sleazy betting practices, this is starting to irritate me.
16 years old, generally deep midfield. Driven mainly by talk of a transfer to Manchester United where he will be loaned back to Birmingham anyway for 18 months at least most likely.
When he comes back, probably years before he is in the first team proper.
Way too far away to be anywhere near £2 for any sensible trader.
And his performance potential looks middling at best based on career numbers so far.
Essentially a scam, and worth flipping if you are playing the game but I would be out quicker than a pensioner in Wutan airport.
Matty Cash
22 year old Nottingham Forest RB, with West Ham links.
Actually has some suitability because his game is solid for performance, particularly crossing, long passes, interceptions and recoveries.
I’d like this one a lot if it was at a sensible price around 60-80p where you could be unearthing a hidden gem even if he will struggle to realise performance potential at West Ham most likely.
But why on earth would he ever have a £1.20 to £1.50 starting price? That’s premium defender territory.
I’d let the madness settle and if he drops under a £1 by season end or so, maybe then.
Domagoj Bradaric
20 year old Lille RB, Croatian U21.
Like Matty Cash above, has a decent performance profile for a full back but it will likely struggle to come through whilst at Lille at least.
Again, solid potential and addition to the platform, but £1.10 to £1.40 just means a sensible trader wouldn’t even think about it.
60-70p would be good value.
Adil Aouchiche
17 year old PSG U19 and France U17 player midfielder, has been given a debut recently in the Coupe de France, where he scored in a 6-0 rout.
Some excellent numbers here for performance scoring and if his stats could be replicated at senior level, he’d do very well. They were good in the Coupe de France debut but it was against minnows.
The best of the bunch so far by a long way, £1 to £1.30 is actually reasonable given the potential here. Would recommend for long term holders if he can be snapped up for anything under £1.50.
More evidence that FI have no idea how to value IPOs because making him cheaper than the above 3 is bonkers.
Arnaud Nordin
21 year old St Etienne winger, France U21.
Looks ok, and could be compared to someone like a Jonathan Bamba or very poor man’s Nicolas Pepe.
Has some performance suitability, and would be a great long range punt at 80p or below.
Unfortunately, the £1.25+ price tag feels too expensive for real value.