I’ll do a quick round up in between the rounds for each CL game going forward.
First leg reviews are up top, and I’ve left my original preview written Jan 15th at the end for interest.
Note there will be no Europa round up tomorrow, I will do a Europa preview next week once we see the Round of 16 match ups (draw tomorrow).
It’s worth watching the draw if possible as very obviously tough/soft match ups can have a rapid impact on prices.
Real Madrid vs Man. City - 26th Feb and 19th March
This feels like a bit of an upset but if we recall the preview, City were the strong favourites to qualify in both the betting and the algorithm. It’s more that City weren’t expected to win away.
City are now expected to cruise the second leg with the algorithm now making them 90% likely to qualify and the betting odds making them strong favourites too.
Hm. I’m not quite sure it is that clear cut myself and I think traders will still think this is a contest which can mean the winner should get a decent boost.
Interestingly as it stands the algorithm and betting odds now make City the slight favourites to win the whole thing even over Bayern.
What’s most interesting to me is how little the market moved after this result outside of the very obvious players. People are buying winners like De Bruyne and Jesus, but are mainly ignoring the other good players that did not win.
This suggests that traders are not yet thinking about the real prize on offer. A Bronze Day dividend last night is peanuts – the real objective is securing access to the Quarter Final Gold Day’s and potentially beyond.
This is also a bonus for the winners like De Bruyne and it’s a really good shorter term reason to hold him. Equally though, it applies to any decent player that can win on a limited fixture day, like Bernardo Silva, Sterling, Aguero, Mahrez, Gundogan, Rodri, Mendy, Walker.
The knockouts are a good time to go for players we wouldn’t normally go for as shorter term bets, particularly if they are cheap. We may want to just buy now if we are confident of City qualifying, and hopefully enjoy a price rise as people switch onto the next rounds and the Gold Day’s to come.
Rotation is an issue, as it was last night for both teams with some very surprising benchings notably for Aguero, Sterling and Kroos.
This hurts particularly for older players and Kroos took a beating as a result. Despite being only just 30 with good prospects, excellent performance numbers and a long contract, he’s being heavily talked down on social media and it does count against him. Anytime he hits a bump it’s going to cause a reaction.
Now he’s performed well and won a dividend recently, unlucky at times not to win more. But he’s still in contention and his fit for the season is good. Losing the CL Gold Day’s (potentially it’s not a done deal) is a blow for sure.
Clearly in hindsight selling a few months back would have been the play to make. But equally, had he won another Gold Day (and he’s been very close), had he not been benched and looked like going through to the CL, things could look different. And he remains a good fit going forward.
Sometimes you can make a good well reasoned decision and it won’t always work out. I was aware of the headwinds he faced as per the reviews and backed his strength to punch through it, it hasn’t yet.
But the reason I was happy to make this bet is that he has long term value. For Euro 2020, and in anticipation of next season, traders are very likely to want Kroos on side because his strength is proven. He can also pop up anytime with a huge score and a win.
In general traders are very over pessimistic when it comes to age and it opens up value very frequently. The drop makes him very good value versus his ability and I think it’s one of those times where patience is likely to pay off in the longer run. Certainly instant selling for £3.42 would seem a huge error to me.
Benzema dropped for similar reasons, and this is much more straight forward. A player like this, good as he is, is always vulnerable to a potential knockout as his full season fit is weak outside of a CL run.
In general it’s notable how unscathed lots of Real Madrid players are by the now expected knockout. This could reflect that many won’t think it’s totally over yet and are happy to stick in. And it may reflect that not many bet on a tough match up ahead of the game anyway.
Real Madrid
Isco looked strong and with his goal he looked like winning the dividend for quite a while. I’ve reported on him positively in Scouting recently, and liked him in the preview too. He feels like a bit of a free hit where he’s got a cheap price, and multiple good outcomes.
At £1.78 if he settles at Real and plays his normal game? £2.50 very acheivable. If his EPL rumours resurface and he actually moves? £3 fairly comfortably and he has the performance suitability to be worth those prices. The bad outcome is staying at Real and playing a bit part for another season – I think from the statements he’s made he’s clearly had enough of this and with a contract up in 2022 he’ll have some bargaining power.
Vinicius had a good game to watch. In recent games his goal threat is really lacking and despite the assist last night, he hasn’t created much either. But, I will say that his baseline numbers look much improved over his historic numbers. That’s a good sign if he can add goal threat which we have seen in spells.
He got a 7p bump for the good performance so it shows traders are willing to dust off the wallet if they see a good young player do well. Whilst I see some promise his real lack of full season fit is a major turn off. No Euro 2020, no transfer, and looking on the brink of being dumped out of the CL? Not attractive. But maybe for next season.
It seems a long shot to be betting on Real players for the Etihad tie. I think the value is in finding anyone that has been beaten down in price who still has long term value. Kroos, Isco look the best.
Manchester City
De Bruyne had a good game overall, perhaps lucky to get the penalty as he is not the usual taker. But he’s a quality player who is always going to be capable of challenging. Penalty aside he had one reasonable chance which he skied. His creativity was excellent though.
I’ve been sceptical on him in early season but I said in scouting this week that I was thawing on him and we could expect big scores soon. I also put him on Explosion Imminent (my listing of players that are looking very strong right now).
He looks better after a price drop in recent months and he’s also closer to the CL Gold Day’s than ever and he’ll be a draw for Euro 2020. Big boost for him to get towards the Quarters and he’s looking better as a prospect than he has all season in my book if looking for a premium hold.
Mahrez a real danger and could/should have scored. For a tough away game the numbers are great. Fantastic prospect for Gold Day wins if they make it through and could win easily in the next leg too. Full season fit lacking and rotation always an issue but if City go on a deep CL run Mahrez could do very nicely. Price is kind for what you get.
Jesus got the win with a goal and if he ever has a chance to shine it’s the CL Gold Day’s. For £2.61 that could be a good bet but Pep is unpredictable it could well be Aguero who starts next, either could do well. Aguero the much better value and if I saw him starting a Gold Day I’d be happy with a short term punt.
As I mentioned above, any half decent City player could be in line for a boost ahead of the Gold Day’s if you are willing to bet City make it through.
Lyon vs Juventus - 26th Feb and 19th March
Our first real upset and it comes from Lyon who had subzero expectations going into this tie.
Now, the algorithm makes Lyon slight favourites and the betting the opposite, Juventus the slight favourites. A 50/50, then.
Some mild benefit for Lyon players like Aouar and Dembelé. But really, not a huge market reaction. I think this reflects that a lot of people still expect Juventus to triumph at home.
However, Ronaldo particularly feels on the ropes here. He does have Euro 2020 to prop him up but a knockout could easily cause significant sales as his age. And, it cuts off a major opportunity for holders – the CL Gold Day’s could be rich hunting grounds for Ronaldo.
I’d be tightening up on Juventus assets here because if they get that shock knockout it won’t be pretty. It happened to them last year and it was a blood bath.
Lyon however, where you can find good players who are worth holding anyway like Aouar and Dembele, are primed to profit and probably won’t take too much damage if they go out.
It’s also fair to say that Lyon will need a kind draw because that optimism could evaporate quickly if they knockout Juventus but then draw Bayern.
Lyon
It was actually a quiet game for Dembele. Very limited involvement even by his low standards, and only 1 effort on goal. He was kept well quiet and we can only really expect that to be worse away from home.
You can’t write off such a good goalscorer though and if Lyon do go through he may get optimism for a Gold Day. And there are good transfer reasons to hold him anyway.
Aouar did better with decent involvement and an assist (3 key passes – very good). Goal threat was missing but he is in good scoring form generally. Capable of winning and come what may, there are good reasons to be holding him as discussed in the preview/scouting.
Tousart bagged the goal and was challenging for the win. In general, I think he’s too deep to expect regular challenges from and for a deep player his baselines aren’t the best either.
Not a bad player for the money but I don’t see him as a particularly good FI fit. To be fair though, a big score at some point can happen and at 80p it can be worth holding a player like this to sell them if people buy when that big score eventually comes.
Cornet seemed to have defensive duties for this game and didn’t get forward as much as we know he can. I like him as a long term cheap youngster with potential but it would be a bit much to expect a win in the next leg.
Juventus
Dybala looked strong and he’d be a good bet for the second leg on this evidence. Much better involvement than Ronaldo and he had some decent threat.
You can’t write off Ronaldo at home, he’s the man for turning around games in the CL and we all know it. I’d understand why someone would make that bet, and if Ronaldo can make the Quarter Finals he’s going to look very tempting.
I would not make the bet though – at his age a shock knockout could see him treated very unkindly and I steer clear of the 50/50 gambles.
I would rather bet on Dybala since whilst he can take a drop too, as a younger player he’d likely get off a bit lighter.
Sandro also looked very good with plenty of the ball and even had a couple of speculative efforts. A good value bet going forward for 88p. He could win the defender category in the home leg and would be a strong shout for Gold Day’s too. Might take a bit of a kicking if they go out but probably not too bad since he’s cheap and the price is stable.
Chelsea v Bayern Munich - 25th Feb and 18 March
A lesson for Chelsea. Bayern look very strong and Chelsea are about as close to being knocked out as you can get.
It was widely expected for Bayern to win comfortably, but perhaps Chelsea could have at least given themselves a chance in the second leg. As it stands, whilst miracles can happen, we’d be foolish to bet on it.
The algorithm now makes Chelsea’s odds of qualifying less than 1%. Rough.
A crushing Bayern win in the next leg is obviously likely and holders of their prize assets can expect more dividend challenges – the only difficulty being it’s hard to predict exactly which Bayern player will win because they have so much quality. Fortunately, a lot of them are worth holding.
Aside from Gnabry whose big score led to huge impulse buying, the market reaction was fairly muted as expected. This is because Bayern were expected to win and nobody fancied Chelsea anyway.
When a player like Gnabry puts up a big score, I know they’ll get bought heavily I’ve being doing this long enough to know that. But it still fills me with wonder that so many people do. For me, the game is to see this coming. Gnabry was top pick in the preview for a reason. He was reported on as in great form in Scouting 3 days ago. It’s possible to see this coming.
The idea of piling into him when he scores? I just can’t imagine doing it. Losing trading. Those people are just lining the pockets of the people who plan ahead. I am not complaining at all, long may it continue.
The only time I think it is acceptable to buy on a goal is when you had your eye on the player but aren’t quite convinced, and are waiting for that one last bit of evidence before you pull the trigger.
With a Gnabry? If we missed it we missed it. Wait for a drop in form or an injury etc and we might get to correct the error later. But not on his way up.
Alphonso Davies also saw heavy buying from the flying fullback believers after a good display but as covered in Scouting recently there is a gaping logic flaw in this trade given his classification as a midfielder and his price. That’s going to bite at some point.
Lewandowski got a small boost from his win – it shows again how hard it is to sell even the very best veterans above £2.50. But, I have a feeling that once those Gold Day’s get close people might suddenly find elite veterans like Lewandowski attractive particularly when they have Euro 2020 to back them up.
Thiago too, another fine display. Small boost again. Looks great as covered in Scouting recently.
Coman took a dive after another injury. It actually seems to be minor and reports are he is only out for 5 days. Difficult. On the other hand, very little has changed, he’s talented, great trend fit and he just got a 7% discount. On the other, his injury proneness is a real worry. A win is possible and he could fly if that happened but he is FI’s Mr Glass so unless you monitor each game holding him might be a bit stressful.
For Chelsea, given nobody really expected them to win, the reaction was very muted. Only really Reece James took a hit which reflects his overheating price that I’ve mentioned a few times. This is another cardinal trading sin on display – if a trader relied on Chelsea beating Bayern as the reason to hold a highly priced player I don’t know what to tell them.
Unless you are happy to hold the player despite the knockout – it’s generally best to sell well before the game and not put yourself on the wrong side of the betting odds.
Willian also took a hit. These short term punts can be more of an acceptable loss. He’s good and like in the preview if you wanted to back an upset he was a good if risky candidate.
In the preview I said if going for this do it right before the game and this paid off if so. Interesting to note how the price dived all the way up to the game in the month before. It’s why I prepare a month ahead – it’s almost like some people forget the game is coming up and are still only just thinking about it just day’s before the game.
Buying at £1.01 pre-match and having to take a 10% hit to get out on Instant Sell if the punt doesn’t work still isn’t pretty. I highlighted in the preview he was very high risk though and this is not the punt I would have gone for being against Bayern and not on a Gold Day but there is a balance of risk and reward in this sort of trade, the wins can be big.
Bayern Munich
No surprise that Gnabry‘s numbers were good, remains a strong favourite going forward. With access to Gold Day’s near certain and a clear full season fit £3.90 is still not too expensive. This is why we wanted these players early – their price ceilings are very high, all they need to do is show their strength and people follow in.
Alcantara the same as mentioned above, he was so strong and had a good chance to score. Incredible consistency recently. Same for Lewandowski, not much more to say.
In defence it’s a toss up and really any of them are capable of winning. Davies is overpriced and has problems. There is a case for punting on him for the next leg as if he did win he would easily rise. But just be aware that he is nowhere near as good as people seem to think he is.
With Gold Day’s pretty much assured, Muller now looks a great veteran punt at £1.33 for the next leg and beyond. As covered in Scouting his improvement on FI scoring in 2020 under Flick is considerable.
And any of Coman, Coutinho, Tolisso, Goretzka if starting could do it.
Really quite ridiculous that I can legitimately name the whole team as strong players.
To pick my best 4 – Gnabry, Lewandowski, Alcantara, Muller.
Chelsea
Sometimes a knockout can open up value so it’s not all doom and gloom. Here, I like to pick over the bones and see if there is anything worth picking up for a discount.
But, many Chelsea players have been running silly prices that have been getting beat down as predicted in Scouting months ago.
Most notable for me in the stats was how poor Barkley was for FI scoring. I noted his base was down in Scouting this week, but put that down to a tough game vs Spurs. The rest of his stats were good. But it was really poor here. Again, you can say it was a tough game but other Chelsea players did a lot better and he looked barely involved.
As a player who normally shows very strong stats even when the fans trash his performance, I always have him in the back of my mind as a punt. But there is a question mark here and we’ll need to see him return to his usual numbers to keep faith in his ability.
I’m really not seeing much value in Chelsea, despite huge drops for many like Mount and Hudson-Odoi and Abraham. Reece James has quality but is overpriced.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek has the ability and with his return from injury pending I think he is the one with the best chance as a good performance can easily give him optimism.
Maybe Hudson-Odoi is getting there too. But I’m not totally convinced. The drop is tempting but really, he was so overvalued as covered in Scouting that it has a lot of correcting to do before it can really be called value. Still, he is one that could rise with just one good performance.
The rest, I’d wait to see if they can drop more and consider for next season.
Napoli vs Barcelona - 25th Feb and 18 March
If there was a match I backed for an upset in the previews this was it.
Close, but not quite. Napoli frustrated Barcelona for large periods and led from 30 minutes with Merten’s goal. He was unlucky not to challenge for the win as came off injured.
They do have form as an upset team but you’d have to be very optimistic at this stage to think Napoli can win it away. They needed to do some damage at home to get any optimism.
Barcelona look more likely to go through than before but for that, the reaction on the market for both teams looks minimal.
I don’t think Napoli will really suffer if they go out – it’s expected.
There may be a little nervousness about Barcelona though as it wasn’t a decisive result. It is likely a good time to punt on cheaper Barcelona players who can win on Gold Day’s.
Pique, Rakitic, Griezmann. Dare I say it even de Jong.
I’d be a bit wary on premium assets like Messi and Fati. In the event of an upset they could really take a kicking.
The balance there is that for Gold Day quarter finals Messi would seem very appealing so as soon as that looks assured he might get out of his slump. Messi feels like a 50/50 for the rest of the season.
But, after his price drop the worst of the damage is surely done and I think a long term holder looking for a premium pick can now find far worse, it will be a gamble for the coming months that can go either way but he should enter next season with optimism.
If buying, this might be a buy on the goal scenario. If Barcelona go 1 up during the next leg and qualification gets more likely, you’ve lowered your odds of getting an upset and that can be a time when buying on the goal can make a lot of sense.
For Napoli, the picture hasn’t really changed.
There are a core of players that have a lot going for them anyway like Insigne, Ruiz, Zielinski, Politano. Prices for them are relatively suppressed and they offer value. If Napoli do pull off an upset you get a boost. If not, they are unlikely to drop much and there are still reasons to hold them.
It is probably not the time to be punting anymore though on a Mertens or a Milik, that was best for the home leg.
Barcelona
Scores were generally low for Barcelona with the draw. And Napoli made it tough for them despite giving up a lot of possession they made sure Barcelona lost plenty of points for giveaway passes.
Barcelona should dominate possession in the home leg and can contend with Bayern for wins in this round.
Just like the scoring suggests Pique does look the best of the defence. But he limped off injured so that needs checking.
Busquets would be looking a solid contender with his baselines but he’s got himself suspended (as is Vidal).
Griezmann looks good at least for a goal and when taking him into Gold Day’s that can be enough. Rakitic looks a good value veteran punt.
And whilst De Jong looked toothless he can have the baselines to win in knockout rounds. His high price puts me off but if he did win you can bet that people would buy pretty heavily because of his previous hype. He seemed to have improved under Setien and showed some threat. But in the last 3 games he is back to his usual zero shots.
Messi is Messi and has a high chance of winning but handling that is discussed above.
Napoli
Tough for Napoli assets with limited possession and that’s only getting worse away from home in the next leg.
It’s the usual suspects who looked the best.
Insigne had two decent efforts and a wonderful run through two defenders. So much FI ability but damn is he frustrating this season.
Zielinski looked good again with the assist and Ruiz saw plenty of the ball.
Like I say though I would not be punting on these players away it’s more about their long term prospects which are discussed over in Scouting.
Original Previews Below from 15th January
Chelsea v Bayern Munich - 25th Feb and 18 March
The overall expectation will obviously be for Bayern to win comfortably, particularly at home.
Chelsea have a decent shot for the first leg at home. But, Bayern have squeezed teams for possession in every CL game so far and Chelsea will have to fight for every FI point.
This justified pessimism could keep Chelsea player prices down in the run up to the game, reflecting nervousness about a knockout. Many key Chelsea players have been dropping in the last month or two anyway, due to a combination of over optimism and over valuation. Regulars will recall I predicted these price drops in Scouting.
We do have newer traders around this month and it can be easy for pumpers to con new traders back into some of them though. But overall, I would not expect price rises for Chelsea players once the short term minded switch onto it being the CL soon.
Chelsea have a really mixed bag of results in the groups, whilst Bayern have 6 wins in 6, most of them very comfortable including big wins away. Whilst upsets can happen, it would seem foolish to bet against Bayern here unless we can find great value at Chelsea that we can hold longer term.
The only problem with Bayern players is choosing from an embarrassment of performance suitable talent which can get rotated. I expect them to be in demand, but that is nothing new and I’ve sung their praises often enough in Scouting this season that hopefully most members have at least some of them!
We also have Barcelona and Napoli competing on this day, who are both full of strong performance players (Though Napoli are doing their best to keep that a secret, at least domestically).
Key Players
Chelsea
Key: Jorginho
Notable: Abraham, Reece James, Barkley, Willian, Emerson, Mount, Hudson-Odoi, Pulisic
Lots of players at Chelsea who could get significant attention with a big performance and an upset. But very few with great FI form and credible reasons to think they will pull it off in a tough game.
Hudson-Odoi can generate hype with a big performance but the odds of that look low. His good FI displays typically come in walkovers vs weak opponents. He rarely shows much of use on FI in tough matches, so there is no reason to bet on him here.
It’s hard to recommend Pulisic in poor form, with his generally weak FI numbers. We’d need him to be smashing in 2-3 most likely and that feels like a very tall order. Also has no late season reasons to hold making him high risk.
Abraham, as covered in Scouting since pre-season, is an atrocious performance player. He’s been scoring, and limited match days like this are where this sort of player can win. Bayern do ship the odd goal, but then they’ll usually score more.
Abraham is a high price, with reasons for a late season hold dwindling unless you really believe he will be trusted to deputise for Kane at the Euro’s, I suspect not. Can win in the event of a big upset, but he’s still not a player I’d touch with the longest barge pole you can possibly imagine.
Mount obviously has that hype factor, but form is poor, FI numbers are poor, and his CL form is even worse. I was keen in pre-season at around £2 but as he headed towards £4 I highlighted how far this price was out ahead of his ability at this stage. £2.87 now, I don’t think there are many reasons why he will have a good few months ahead.
Willian is one of Chelsea’s best, and if you are backing an upset, would be one the one to go for. But I would probably do it late (prematch) as a cheap punt rather than a long hold. If Chelsea do pull it off, Willian would be a great prospect for a Gold Day Quarter Final. But he’s very high risk because of his age and his expiring contract at the end of the season.
Barkley, if starting (and not shipped out to West Ham as per the latest speculation) is likely Chelsea’s best performance player, certainly one of them. And that’s true for England too. That may seem borderline blasphemy to conventional football thinking but on FI it is true.
Played two full games recently and looked good for FI in both. If we see him starting more in the coming games and some positive noises from Lampard he could start looking a bargain once more. But he’s been very stop and start with injury etc.
Will be tough for any player to actually win versus Bayern but if backing an upset it’s best to do it with cheap players. Would only buy if we saw him get more minutes soon. West Ham move would be mixed I’ll cover that in scouting later.
Jorginho is a solid pick, purely because if you are going to beat Bayern it might be a penalty that does it. Also has Italy involvement later on as a back up plan. Price is dropping, may be worth waiting to see if gloom for Chelsea’s CL prospects beats the price down further. £2.25 now, if he could be picked up much closer to £2 I think he’s a decent bet for the coming months and as an underdog for this round.
Reece James has been playing well as covered in Scouting, and my early January prediction of a win coming soon came true.
But as per this weeks Scouting review, I would be selling on this wave of hype rather than holding in great expectation. He can contend but to expect that in this round is a bit much with Bayern squeezing possession. When people switch to full CL thinking mode, eyes may water at the prospect of facing Bayern.
Bayern Munich
Key: Gnabry, Coutinho, Lewandowski
Notable: Goretzka, Tolisso, Alcantara, Coman, Alphonso Davies, Pavard, Kimmich
The main issue is rotation here so sticking with the best players that can be held for the domestic season and the Euro’s too seems the best call.
Gnabry the main man, people will remember his 4 goal demolition of Spurs away. Has not actually scored in the CL this season outside of that, but has had chances, and his numbers are consistently strong.
Just a really solid hold all round CL or not. Not the bargain he was when I banged on about him in pre-season at a now ludicrous £1.40-£1.60 but his price has been stable at £3.35 and he’s got all the right ingredients for a good 6 months ahead.
Coutinho is looking incredibly strong for FI scoring and I’d be confident in him for this game. Rotation is possible. And the case for a late season hold is ropey. Balanced against that, the price is very reasonable at £2.58 for a player of such quality. Bayern have tasty fixtures too. This can have even the best of us scratching their heads.
On balance, I’d say yes for the coming month and the CL games, relying on his raw performance strength to overcome the issues with trend fit. Especially with Gnabry/Coman currently injured.
Lewandowski is an easy yes at £2.22. So strong for IPD and performance. Age keeps his price relatively reasonable but it’s actually not a big issue in his case. Euro’s will sustain him, his 4 year Bayern contract recently signed means we don’t have to worry about age too much in his case. Will be a favourite for later CL gold days if they make it through.
I’m a well known Kimmich sceptic since pre-season, still am. Inititally the market disagreed with me, as he went from £3.25 pre-season to £4.72 by November. But in the last 3 months he’s been dropping back due to a lack of returns. He’s not adding enough end product to these good baselines.
My main reason for scepticism was the risk of reclassification into midfield, which FI made a song and dance of early on, but then did very little about it. I always thought him capable of wins and in that regard he has been unlucky to get so few wins with his numbers. I’d expect that luck to balance out at some point.
That risk of reclassification is still there though, we just don’t know when it hits. He’d need to drop at least another £1 to get me interested.
At the cheaper end we have the excellent Tolisso and Goretzka, both of whom are potential rotation risks but also potential winners and breakout players. At £1.46 and £1.65 respectively I think these are solid choices with high potential, but will likely need patience so are best thought of as long term holds (possibly a year). At these prices, that’s viable.
Alcantara is a sleeping giant with some rotation problems. But he has started 5 of 6 CL games. His end product has been off colour this season, but he can score (got a great chance vs Spurs in the CL) and in these limited fixtures, he probably doesn’t even need to. Death by 100+ passes can win it.
I think £2.15 is a good price but given his form/possibility of a transfer to Juventus/Real Madrid and general uncertainty, I think he’s another with a long hold in mind. He is one that can announce himself with a 300+ monster score though so he’d be a favourite for QF Gold Days.
Davies is a player I’ve liked for a while, and indeed featured him in my October wonderkids article and Scouting before that. Great rise in recent weeks but I’m not sure it’s a smart choice for buyers now.
He’s now being played out of position at left back, classed as a midfielder on FI. That’s the wrong way around! Whilst a reclassification at some point is near inevitable, he’s too weak at left back to compete with midfield big hitters. Yet he carries a midfield price tag.
When switched to defender, his chances are better, but he’ll be overpriced because people have been buying him as a midfielder. Whilst he’s talented, there is so much wrong with that picture.
Pavard is a very solid choice. After a drop, £1.75 is still reasonable for a player with good prospects ahead. Flicking back to June 12 pre-season scouting when I was very keen, he was just 80p back then, a fantastic rise. He’s not that bargain anymore, but he’s solid and I think he can hit £2 again fairly easily.
Napoli vs Barcelona - 25th Feb and 18 March
Although Napoli have awful domestic form, their CL campaign has been much better. They have seen off Salzburg away, beaten Liverpool at home, got the draw at Anfield, and demolished Genk 4-0 in the final game.
Whilst Barcelona are clear favourites in both betting odds and the algorithm, given Napoli’s good CL results against strong sides, my view is that Napoli may be a good underdog who can cause a big upset in the round of 16, at least in the home leg.
Still, it would be better to stick with Napoli players that have reasons to hold them anyway. This may be made easier by nervousness about a knockout – this can send Napoli players down to bargain prices. They have already been dropping, mainly I think due to this awful run of domestic form but no doubt partially because of this tough CL draw too.
Barcelona are generally expected to progress comfortably, and have plenty of strong players, including some good young talent. However, being a strong favourite in knockouts on FI comes with problems – in the case of a shock defeat traders often can’t hit that Instant Sell button fast enough. And, a win may not move the price much because it’s already assumed (unless it comes from a breakout youngster).
Key Players
Napoli
Key: Insigne, Ruiz, Zielinski, Mertens, Milik
Notable: Elmas,
Insigne, Ruiz, Zielinski are all strong FI players with good future prospects including Euro involvement and possible transfers, notably for Ruiz. Prices have been kept relatively modest due to poor domestic form and this tough draw, which makes them good long term value.
If they get knocked out, they are unlikely to dip because of it, it’s expected. In the event of a shock, they can rise strongly. If their domestic form improves they can win there too. And regardless, there are longer term reasons to hold them anyway.
I view these 3 as close to a free hit chance to win and cause an upset, since I’m happy to hold them anyway.
Insigne is a scouting favourite, but despite rising dramatically since pre-season (£1.23 > £2.42) he has struggled since as Napoli go through this awful domestic form. Interestingly, Insigne hit his first home goals of the season only yesterday in the cup, smashing in 2. This would have been a huge FI score, hopefully a sign of things to come.
Ruiz has quality, his form is not the best as he has struggled recently for end product as covered in scouting. It is also unlikely to be his game as Barcelona squeeze possesion. But particularly at home, he is capable. With him, it’s more about him improving domestically and moving to a very big club come season end, as well as his Spain involvement.
As per scouting I am keen on Zielinski at the moment, as he has shown significant improvement and represents great value. Check scouting for my detailed thoughts on him.
Mertens and Milik are both very strong contenders in the CL, and if Napoli did make it through to a Gold Day, they’d look especially good value. For this bronze day, less so because the prize isn’t that great. But, I think there is a good window here where Napoli have a lot of games on the way.
Both are capable of hoovering up strong IPD in the next month, and may attract a price rise before the game, where it may be smart to cash out if so. At the cheap prices of £1.18 for Mertens and £1.42 for Milik, this is very viable.
Elmas is a good young talent who has gone a bit quiet due to rotation. Had some good games when he has played though, including this week in the Coppa Italia where he again showed solid numbers. Would expect him to start benched but he looks a solid pick for long term holders at £1.06, or for a punt if you see him on the team sheet pre match.
I also considered Koulibaly but in this game, he is unlikely to get the possession he needs for big scores.
Barcelona
Key: Messi, Griezmann
Notable: Ousmane Dembelé, De Jong, Fati,
Messi is the obvious favourite to win, but it’s an example of how being the favourite is not always desirable in these knockouts, particularly before the Gold Days.
The trends also have to work in your favour. He’s been declining since November. This is why in Key Strategy offloading veterans as we approached Christmas was a guideline.
If he wins here? Well that’s expected. It won’t cause a huge stir unless Barcelona get a favourable draw for the quarters. You can see people going for Messi at that point for a shot at a Gold Day.
But if he loses in the R16 or Quarters? Or picks up a bad injury? That’s going to be rough.
Suarez underlines the point. His (probably) season ending injury gives little reason to hold him until August at the earliest, and even then, with 1 year on the contract, he may not be at Barcelona next season, or he might lose his starting spot. Veterans are high risk at this stage particularly where there are doubts about next season.
Griezmann is by far the better bet. He’s on the up with better and better performances. Scoring regularly. Though it’s not coming through in performance scoring quite yet. If he becomes a more trusted member of the team, it can. With Suarez out, they may need to rely on him more. And with high expectations for the Euro’s, he can withstand a shock knock out. Solid prospects for the next 6 months.
It could be an opportunity for someone like Ousmané Dembelé or even Ansu Fati to step up.
We have a new manager at Barcelona, so will be interesting to cover the first few games in Scouting for more clues as to which younger players he favours.
Dembelé has been overhyped/priced in the past, but last review on 24 November I said he looked good value at £2.35 coming off a big price drop, and much closer to delivering some results.
Up to £2.51 now, which is pretty good. Unclear whether he will make an impact here, but he can, and he feels like a good longer term hold to me regardless, whether he settles at Barcelona or gets another big transfer, the dream being to the EPL.
This is also Fati‘s opportunity to shine if he can get minutes, even off the bench. Did score vs Inter last CL game with just 10 minutes on the pitch. That’s all he really needs to do! In truth, recent form has been poor and his price is madness. I said this as soon as he went up to £3.79 at IPO and he has stagnated and dropped a bit since.
But, whilst unlikely, a goal could send him flying to £4 easily. Not one I would personally go for though because it is a very poor value price despite his talent.
De Jong is really poor for FI purposes, something I have said consistently all season. He’s stagnated since, which in a market that has risen this much is a bad result. Has also never looked close to a win. He can win in a very low fixture day with a decent baseline, but it would have to be a 0-0 or a very rare collector’s item goal.
With a change in coach, more options may emerge. Keep an eye on Scouting as we see the first games.
Real Madrid vs Man. City - 26th Feb and 19th March
City are the strong favourites to qualify in both the betting and the algorithm. The first leg with Real at home is much more up in the air.
With Real in very mixed form, I can see why City are favourites. Real have struggled versus credible CL opposition, losing to PSG away and Ajax at home. The only real bright spot is beating Ajax away 1-2. City have cruised it but mainly vs soft opponents. Only draws with Atalanta and Shakhtar spoiling their record.
That’s not hugely convincing though, I think for trading purposes a lot of people will view this as a tough contest.
That could mean a bit of nervous buying in the build up, decent gains for the winners and sizable drops for losers.
These match days are shared with Lyon v Juventus. City and Real will be the main event, but Juventus have the biggest chance of crushing Lyon and stealing the show.
Key Players
Real Madrid
Key: Eden Hazard, Kroos, Ramos
Notable: Rodrygo, Vinicius, Isco, Benzema, Carvajal
Hazard should be back in plenty of time. He was really improving in reality and in FI terms before his unfortunate injury as covered in Scouting. This is a great stage to remind people of his quality.
I’ve warmed to him in recent months following his price drop and better performances, and £3.91 now looks good value for a premium player with a strong profile for the next 6 months with the Euro’s ahead.
Kroos is an obvious contender by now. This will be a tough game but his numbers hold up in big games. As a fun fact, he scored an insane goal from a corner kick vs Valencia in the Super Cup last week, worth watching if only for the look on the goalkeeper’s face.
More than happy to be holding him for the season run in, as his week in week out big scores and Euro’s involvement keeps him going. If he can get through to the QF Gold Day’s that would be a big bonus.
Rodrygo can’t currently be recommended on form, he’s struggling lately and not looking dangerous anymore. But, he’s got ability and a big performance here can see him fly easily. Has a better record in the CL but his 4 goals were vs soft opponents.
Not one I would pick at this stage as per scouting from November to December. He’s overheated by at least £1. But I often say if you have to go for the hype picks, at least get the FI suitable one’s and he is that.
Likewise, Vinicius is off the boil and seeing heavy rotation. But again, whilst you can’t recommend him on form, the potential for him to fly on the market is there with a big goal. Looks better after a long slow price drop from £3.97 to £2.59 now (I was scathing about his £3+ price tag! But for good reason.) But not a trade I would go for, unless these recent speculative EPL transfer rumours firmed up.
Isco, despite his struggles, I have time for at £1.94 which is very reasonable. Given the chance in attacking midfield he can be very good for FI. In the Super Cup last week he was, scoring vs Valencia and managing over 100 passes, with high accuracy, crosses, dribbles, recoveries, everything. Had that been scored on FI, it would have got serious attention.
If he settled at Real, that’s all good. If his long gossiped about EPL move happened either now or in Summer, brilliant. CL chances are tough to call, he might not even play. But as a trade on the whole, there are plenty of things that can go right, not much that can go drastically wrong at 27 years old.
Brief honourable mention to James Rodriguez, who I would back if I thought he would get regular minutes in an attacking position. Still looks very stop and start though, will monitor in scouting.
Benzema was in monstrous form in November and whilst he only scored twice in December, his goal threat was great. Also has better than average overall involvement for a forward. He’s great to have on your side for the big CL nights. But probably more for Gold Day’s where the dividend is meaningful.
He runs against the trends though at this stage of the season. An injury or similar could hurt. But Real have plenty of good fixtures coming up before the CL, and I suspect buyers over the next month may hoover up some strong IPD and have a chance of a performance win too. Just check his injury isn’t too serious we are still awaiting news on a knock.
At the back the front runners would be Carvajal and Ramos. Carvajal can win it with high baselines, crosses and potential assists. In a tough game though, possession may be hard to come by and a Ramos penalty or headed goal could swing it. Has scored twice in the CL so far this season already.
Man. City
Key: Sterling, Mahrez, Laporte
Notable: Aguero, Jesus, Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Angelino
Aguero or Jesus will lead the line, probably Aguero. But despite their clear goal threat, I can’t think of a reason to punt on either. Prospects for the next 6 months are fairly bleak, and it’s only a bronze dividend up for grabs.
If City take a commanding lead in the first leg, I might consider a punt on Aguero in anticipation of a rise ahead of a QF Gold Day where he could win. But it wouldn’t be a big priority.
Sterling has a good fit for the next 6 months, and can do well, particularly if City make it through and he can get in on some Gold Day action.
Has been dropping recently though after a run of poor scores. Not been that bad in the stats though, he’s been unlucky that his big days have fallen in the Cup or when City lost to Wolves. Stats are generally solid.
We can’t expect huge profits out of premium players like this, but I think he’s one of the better ones to be holding for the coming months.
Sané should be back soon. He has potential but despite all his struggles his price has been relentlessly high, possibly due to a potential move to Bayern where he could improve performance wise. That’s a touch odd, because normally traders hate out of EPL moves.
So, I can’t say it is extreme value at £3.19, but with a bit more experience he can be a good FI player at City or otherwise. And he can get back into contention for Germany too. I can see him hitting £4 over the next 6 months but a lot would have to go right. A 50/50.
Mahrez is superb on FI, the only issue is potential rotation. And, increasingly limited reasons to hold him in late season. A lot rides on this game for him, because with Gold Day QF’s ahead, he has a solid case for a longer hold. If City go out, the clock will be ticking on how useful he stays for the rest of the season.
But he is in great form so I’d be happy to back him up to the first CL game, possibly further if he gets a result.
Bernardo Silva can win, but he tends to do better vs soft opponents where he can see more of the ball. This could be tough for him. I didn’t like him in pre-season scouting at around £2.40, but he’s another who should have a better second half of the season.
£2.27 now after a drop and a lot cheaper than he was relatively speaking too, with the Euro’s ahead, I’d be more neutral on him than negative these days.
De Bruyne is a bit off colour and his CL performances have not been great. But he’s capable of a big score anytime. As per my recent Scouting review, I think he’s a solid but unambitious hold for the coming months. And he has a lot to gain/lose depending on whether City make it through to the Gold Day’s.
David Silva could be a good Gold Day punt, but only if they make it to the QF.
Seems unlikely Foden would start in such a big game. I’d probably look to pick him up later in the season with next season in mind, provided his price drop continues.
At the back, Laporte may return. Injury buyers already bought him for that so I would say he is fairly priced rather than great value at £1.91. He’ll likely struggle particularly vs tough opponents like Real. But can dominate weaker teams.
Price may be compared to VVD and it’s not unfair, he’s nearly 80p cheaper with similar raw ability. Liverpool’s kinder draw, better domestic form, and Laporte’s freeze out from the France side are valid reasons why that is the case though.
A tough one but I would say if in the market for a premium defender for the next few months Laporte is solid. He just may take a bit of a kicking if City go out with no back up reason to hold him.
I’m not been a believer in Mendy, which is just as well since the price has taken a thrashing in recent months. It was always clear from the new scoring system in pre-season that some attacking full backs would do well, that was my analysis at the time.
Emphasis on some. There is a lazy “flying fullback” narrative going on at the moment based usually on weak/misleading stats that is leading people down blind alleys. Mendy’s price chart shows what happens when the music stops.
He’s doing a lot of the right stuff, but right now at least, the end product is not there.
I would be much more interested to see Zinchenko or even Angelino fill the spot. Zinchenko is excellent but his rotation is a problem as is his pricetag, which is a legacy of being a midfielder. Once switched to defender, that makes him look very expensive at £1.81. But he’s capable of big things and likely is a solid hold for very long term minded folks.
If I saw Angelino on the team sheet, I’d be very likely to punt on him at his bargain price despite his rotation troubles. His assist potential/crossing numbers are insane. Played both recent cup matches, assisting in both.
Lyon vs Juventus - 26th Feb and 19th March
Expectations for Lyon are sub zero, with both betting odds and algorithm making them the least likely team to progress.
That’s mixed. It probably subdues prices in the build up, but in reality, most of the market has already written Lyon off and a loss shouldn’t move prices down much.
Plenty of cheap good players at Lyon anyway, so as long as the longer term prospects are good, a hold can be a good option. You get an (almost) free bet on an upset that way.
Juventus could score big here and whilst they have lots of big talent, Ronaldo hogs a lot of the action.
I do not go in for the “you can’t buy X he competes with Y” theories. Your player is always going to be competing vs other good players on most meaningful days, and they are either good enough or they aren’t.
But in Juventus’s case, everything is set up to go through Ronaldo and it does stifle those around him. There a few players good enough to break through though.
The only real danger for Juventus is a shock defeat that could crash the price (remember Ajax?!). Not likely, though.
Key Players
Lyon
Key: Moussa Dembelé, Aouar,
Notable: Terrier, Traoré, Cornet
Dembelé is in great form and the most likely goal scorer for Lyon. Been up and down in the last week due to transfer rumours. If this doesn’t happen now, the rumours will be back by Summer most likely. When the price is right, I prefer to hold now during the window, just in case you get lucky and one of these transfer rumours just turns out to be true.
I don’t need to care about a small short term drop if it doesn’t, the upside outweighs the down here.
A solid hold for the next 6 months and any CL goals/win would be a bonus.
I also like Aouar who is hitting good form as per this week’s scouting. Like Dembelé, he’s got good prospects for the next 6 months with big transfer rumours likely come Summer. And he is showing the form that can lead to domestic wins too. Again, a good CL performance would be a bonus which is the key for underdogs.
Lyon have 3 good young prospects in Terrier, Traoré and Cornet.
Cornet has had a recent good performance and I highlighted him in scouting this week. Provided he keeps his spot on the wing rather than the odd move to left back, I think he looks a good longer term prospect for patient holders at £1.16.
Traoré has also improved, and he’s putting some good numbers up recently with plenty of decent shots and chances created. Can hit a win.
Probably more hopeful domestically than for the CL itself, but £1.18 is reasonable value for a punt on him continuing to improve in the next month or two. If he hasn’t done it by then, he could be struggling.
Terrier I was keen on pre-season but it has not worked out. Had a great finish to last season and has been considered a potential future France player too with some great stats from U21 level.
He has had a very poor season in general. But better signs in the last 5 games, with 2 goals and decent threat throughout. In truth, he’s struggling a bit with his classification as a midfielder whilst often playing more wing/forward roles, though he keeps being moved about so he’s difficult to pin down.
What he needs is a big breakout goal, perhaps Juventus is not the time to look for that it’s going to be tough. But, I think a long term holder might be quite happy with him at 92p, he is showing signs of improvement.
Juventus
Key: Ronaldo, Dybala, Sandro
Notable: Ramsey, Pjanic, De Ligt, Higuain
These days are made for Ronaldo and there is every chance he will do his thing. There is a lot riding on this for Ronaldo holders. A deep CL run for Juventus with all those Gold Day’s could get Ronaldo pumping ahead of the Euro’s, and might make people ignore the risks he comes with.
He’s an exciting gamble but what keeps me out is the thought of a serious injury at this stage which could crash that price. But for the braver folk out there, he has lots of opportunities to shine in the next 6 months.
A shock knockout though… that’s not going to be a good day out for holders.
Holding Dybala or not is a tough decision. He’s a very strong performance player, and improving a lot in recent months.
Has actually been quite unlucky not to score higher more often. Hasn’t hit match winners, or he did but it was from the bench. Or, it was in a Cup like yesterday where he scored 2 and assisted 1, likely would have been his best score of the season.
Has an excellent CL record this season with 3 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, over just 231 minutes, it’s very impressive. I’d expect him to be starting now and not suffer so much rotation.
Against that, he’s running against my trend fit for the season, with no Euro’s and the chances of a big transfer looking less likely the more he beds in at Juventus.
Could have a great run if Juventus go far in the CL though. If you are a patient trader who is happy to be holding Dybala in 8 months time for the start of next season, and can stomach a bit of a drop in the meantime if things don’t quite go to plan… I think he’s a very good choice.
Shorter term, bit of a risk particularly if Juventus don’t go far in the CL. But I’d be happy with this because of my longer term confidence in him.
Higuain would be a brave punt. But he is capable of a big score on the day. I’d be more likely to go for this in the build up to a Gold Day where the pay off can be more worth the risk.
Ramsey is seeing far too much rotation to be consistent. But when on the pitch he is looking really good in the FI relevant stats. Would be happy to punt on him late if I saw him on the teamsheet.
Pjanic is a clear contender, if only through a million passes which can be all you need on limited match days. Way back in September/October Scouting when he was being hyped, I warned about going in too hard on a player that was clearly on a hot streak that was very likely to come to an end. He was chased up to £3.14 for that, but is back down to £2.26 now.
That actually looks a much better price these days and if Juventus have a good run he could get attention for Gold Days. Still got a chance of qualifying for the Euros through the playoffs too.
At the back, you can go for hype or substance. De Ligt is a poor performance player, always was. I pretty much savaged this on it’s way up to £3+ and have no sympathy at all that he is now £1.86, it was always coming.
Reasonable-ish baselines, he might get attention just for the hype, but with his numbers, he’d be very lucky to beat many other better defenders on the field.
Sandro is the better alternative at just 87p. Strong baselines and potential end product to make it count with good key passing and crossing stats. Whilst his trend fit is not strong, he’s cheap enough to be worth it at this stage if expecting a good run for Juventus in the CL.
Real Madrid vs Man. City - 26th Feb and 19th March
City are the strong favourites to qualify in both the betting and the algorithm. The first leg with Real at home is much more up in the air.
With Real in very mixed form, I can see why City are favourites. Real have struggled versus credible CL opposition, losing to PSG away and Ajax at home. The only real bright spot is beating Ajax away 1-2. City have cruised it but mainly vs soft opponents. Only draws with Atalanta and Shakhtar spoiling their record.
That’s not hugely convincing though, I think for trading purposes a lot of people will view this as a tough contest.
That could mean a bit of nervous buying in the build up, decent gains for the winners and sizable drops for losers.
These match days are shared with Lyon v Juventus. City and Real will be the main event, but Juventus have the biggest chance of crushing Lyon and stealing the show.
Key Players
Real Madrid
Key: Eden Hazard, Kroos, Ramos
Notable: Rodrygo, Vinicius, Isco, Benzema, Carvajal
Hazard should be back in plenty of time. He was really improving in reality and in FI terms before his unfortunate injury as covered in Scouting. This is a great stage to remind people of his quality.
I’ve warmed to him in recent months following his price drop and better performances, and £3.91 now looks good value for a premium player with a strong profile for the next 6 months with the Euro’s ahead.
Kroos is an obvious contender by now. This will be a tough game but his numbers hold up in big games. As a fun fact, he scored an insane goal from a corner kick vs Valencia in the Super Cup last week, worth watching if only for the look on the goalkeeper’s face.
More than happy to be holding him for the season run in, as his week in week out big scores and Euro’s involvement keeps him going. If he can get through to the QF Gold Day’s that would be a big bonus.
Rodrygo can’t currently be recommended on form, he’s struggling lately and not looking dangerous anymore. But, he’s got ability and a big performance here can see him fly easily. Has a better record in the CL but his 4 goals were vs soft opponents.
Not one I would pick at this stage as per scouting from November to December. He’s overheated by at least £1. But I often say if you have to go for the hype picks, at least get the FI suitable one’s and he is that.
Likewise, Vinicius is off the boil and seeing heavy rotation. But again, whilst you can’t recommend him on form, the potential for him to fly on the market is there with a big goal. Looks better after a long slow price drop from £3.97 to £2.59 now (I was scathing about his £3+ price tag! But for good reason.) But not a trade I would go for, unless these recent speculative EPL transfer rumours firmed up.
Isco, despite his struggles, I have time for at £1.94 which is very reasonable. Given the chance in attacking midfield he can be very good for FI. In the Super Cup last week he was, scoring vs Valencia and managing over 100 passes, with high accuracy, crosses, dribbles, recoveries, everything. Had that been scored on FI, it would have got serious attention.
If he settled at Real, that’s all good. If his long gossiped about EPL move happened either now or in Summer, brilliant. CL chances are tough to call, he might not even play. But as a trade on the whole, there are plenty of things that can go right, not much that can go drastically wrong at 27 years old.
Brief honourable mention to James Rodriguez, who I would back if I thought he would get regular minutes in an attacking position. Still looks very stop and start though, will monitor in scouting.
Benzema was in monstrous form in November and whilst he only scored twice in December, his goal threat was great. Also has better than average overall involvement for a forward. He’s great to have on your side for the big CL nights. But probably more for Gold Day’s where the dividend is meaningful.
He runs against the trends though at this stage of the season. An injury or similar could hurt. But Real have plenty of good fixtures coming up before the CL, and I suspect buyers over the next month may hoover up some strong IPD and have a chance of a performance win too. Just check his injury isn’t too serious we are still awaiting news on a knock.
At the back the front runners would be Carvajal and Ramos. Carvajal can win it with high baselines, crosses and potential assists. In a tough game though, possession may be hard to come by and a Ramos penalty or headed goal could swing it. Has scored twice in the CL so far this season already.
Man. City
Key: Sterling, Mahrez, Laporte
Notable: Aguero, Jesus, Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Angelino
Aguero or Jesus will lead the line, probably Aguero. But despite their clear goal threat, I can’t think of a reason to punt on either. Prospects for the next 6 months are fairly bleak, and it’s only a bronze dividend up for grabs.
If City take a commanding lead in the first leg, I might consider a punt on Aguero in anticipation of a rise ahead of a QF Gold Day where he could win. But it wouldn’t be a big priority.
Sterling has a good fit for the next 6 months, and can do well, particularly if City make it through and he can get in on some Gold Day action.
Has been dropping recently though after a run of poor scores. Not been that bad in the stats though, he’s been unlucky that his big days have fallen in the Cup or when City lost to Wolves. Stats are generally solid.
We can’t expect huge profits out of premium players like this, but I think he’s one of the better ones to be holding for the coming months.
Sané should be back soon. He has potential but despite all his struggles his price has been relentlessly high, possibly due to a potential move to Bayern where he could improve performance wise. That’s a touch odd, because normally traders hate out of EPL moves.
So, I can’t say it is extreme value at £3.19, but with a bit more experience he can be a good FI player at City or otherwise. And he can get back into contention for Germany too. I can see him hitting £4 over the next 6 months but a lot would have to go right. A 50/50.
Mahrez is superb on FI, the only issue is potential rotation. And, increasingly limited reasons to hold him in late season. A lot rides on this game for him, because with Gold Day QF’s ahead, he has a solid case for a longer hold. If City go out, the clock will be ticking on how useful he stays for the rest of the season.
But he is in great form so I’d be happy to back him up to the first CL game, possibly further if he gets a result.
Bernardo Silva can win, but he tends to do better vs soft opponents where he can see more of the ball. This could be tough for him. I didn’t like him in pre-season scouting at around £2.40, but he’s another who should have a better second half of the season.
£2.27 now after a drop and a lot cheaper than he was relatively speaking too, with the Euro’s ahead, I’d be more neutral on him than negative these days.
De Bruyne is a bit off colour and his CL performances have not been great. But he’s capable of a big score anytime. As per my recent Scouting review, I think he’s a solid but unambitious hold for the coming months. And he has a lot to gain/lose depending on whether City make it through to the Gold Day’s.
David Silva could be a good Gold Day punt, but only if they make it to the QF.
Seems unlikely Foden would start in such a big game. I’d probably look to pick him up later in the season with next season in mind, provided his price drop continues.
At the back, Laporte may return. Injury buyers already bought him for that so I would say he is fairly priced rather than great value at £1.91. He’ll likely struggle particularly vs tough opponents like Real. But can dominate weaker teams.
Price may be compared to VVD and it’s not unfair, he’s nearly 80p cheaper with similar raw ability. Liverpool’s kinder draw, better domestic form, and Laporte’s freeze out from the France side are valid reasons why that is the case though.
A tough one but I would say if in the market for a premium defender for the next few months Laporte is solid. He just may take a bit of a kicking if City go out with no back up reason to hold him.
I’m not been a believer in Mendy, which is just as well since the price has taken a thrashing in recent months. It was always clear from the new scoring system in pre-season that some attacking full backs would do well, that was my analysis at the time.
Emphasis on some. There is a lazy “flying fullback” narrative going on at the moment based usually on weak/misleading stats that is leading people down blind alleys. Mendy’s price chart shows what happens when the music stops.
He’s doing a lot of the right stuff, but right now at least, the end product is not there.
I would be much more interested to see Zinchenko or even Angelino fill the spot. Zinchenko is excellent but his rotation is a problem as is his pricetag, which is a legacy of being a midfielder. Once switched to defender, that makes him look very expensive at £1.81. But he’s capable of big things and likely is a solid hold for very long term minded folks.
If I saw Angelino on the team sheet, I’d be very likely to punt on him at his bargain price despite his rotation troubles. His assist potential/crossing numbers are insane. Played both recent cup matches, assisting in both.
Lyon vs Juventus - 26th Feb and 19th March
Expectations for Lyon are sub zero, with both betting odds and algorithm making them the least likely team to progress.
That’s mixed. It probably subdues prices in the build up, but in reality, most of the market has already written Lyon off and a loss shouldn’t move prices down much.
Plenty of cheap good players at Lyon anyway, so as long as the longer term prospects are good, a hold can be a good option. You get an (almost) free bet on an upset that way.
Juventus could score big here and whilst they have lots of big talent, Ronaldo hogs a lot of the action.
I do not go in for the “you can’t buy X he competes with Y” theories. Your player is always going to be competing vs other good players on most meaningful days, and they are either good enough or they aren’t.
But in Juventus’s case, everything is set up to go through Ronaldo and it does stifle those around him. There a few players good enough to break through though.
The only real danger for Juventus is a shock defeat that could crash the price (remember Ajax?!). Not likely, though.
Key Players
Lyon
Key: Moussa Dembelé, Aouar,
Notable: Terrier, Traoré, Cornet
Dembelé is in great form and the most likely goal scorer for Lyon. Been up and down in the last week due to transfer rumours. If this doesn’t happen now, the rumours will be back by Summer most likely. When the price is right, I prefer to hold now during the window, just in case you get lucky and one of these transfer rumours just turns out to be true.
I don’t need to care about a small short term drop if it doesn’t, the upside outweighs the down here.
A solid hold for the next 6 months and any CL goals/win would be a bonus.
I also like Aouar who is hitting good form as per this week’s scouting. Like Dembelé, he’s got good prospects for the next 6 months with big transfer rumours likely come Summer. And he is showing the form that can lead to domestic wins too. Again, a good CL performance would be a bonus which is the key for underdogs.
Lyon have 3 good young prospects in Terrier, Traoré and Cornet.
Cornet has had a recent good performance and I highlighted him in scouting this week. Provided he keeps his spot on the wing rather than the odd move to left back, I think he looks a good longer term prospect for patient holders at £1.16.
Traoré has also improved, and he’s putting some good numbers up recently with plenty of decent shots and chances created. Can hit a win.
Probably more hopeful domestically than for the CL itself, but £1.18 is reasonable value for a punt on him continuing to improve in the next month or two. If he hasn’t done it by then, he could be struggling.
Terrier I was keen on pre-season but it has not worked out. Had a great finish to last season and has been considered a potential future France player too with some great stats from U21 level.
He has had a very poor season in general. But better signs in the last 5 games, with 2 goals and decent threat throughout. In truth, he’s struggling a bit with his classification as a midfielder whilst often playing more wing/forward roles, though he keeps being moved about so he’s difficult to pin down.
What he needs is a big breakout goal, perhaps Juventus is not the time to look for that it’s going to be tough. But, I think a long term holder might be quite happy with him at 92p, he is showing signs of improvement.
Juventus
Key: Ronaldo, Dybala, Sandro
Notable: Ramsey, Pjanic, De Ligt, Higuain
These days are made for Ronaldo and there is every chance he will do his thing. There is a lot riding on this for Ronaldo holders. A deep CL run for Juventus with all those Gold Day’s could get Ronaldo pumping ahead of the Euro’s, and might make people ignore the risks he comes with.
He’s an exciting gamble but what keeps me out is the thought of a serious injury at this stage which could crash that price. But for the braver folk out there, he has lots of opportunities to shine in the next 6 months.
A shock knockout though… that’s not going to be a good day out for holders.
Holding Dybala or not is a tough decision. He’s a very strong performance player, and improving a lot in recent months.
Has actually been quite unlucky not to score higher more often. Hasn’t hit match winners, or he did but it was from the bench. Or, it was in a Cup like yesterday where he scored 2 and assisted 1, likely would have been his best score of the season.
Has an excellent CL record this season with 3 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, over just 231 minutes, it’s very impressive. I’d expect him to be starting now and not suffer so much rotation.
Against that, he’s running against my trend fit for the season, with no Euro’s and the chances of a big transfer looking less likely the more he beds in at Juventus.
Could have a great run if Juventus go far in the CL though. If you are a patient trader who is happy to be holding Dybala in 8 months time for the start of next season, and can stomach a bit of a drop in the meantime if things don’t quite go to plan… I think he’s a very good choice.
Shorter term, bit of a risk particularly if Juventus don’t go far in the CL. But I’d be happy with this because of my longer term confidence in him.
Higuain would be a brave punt. But he is capable of a big score on the day. I’d be more likely to go for this in the build up to a Gold Day where the pay off can be more worth the risk.
Ramsey is seeing far too much rotation to be consistent. But when on the pitch he is looking really good in the FI relevant stats. Would be happy to punt on him late if I saw him on the teamsheet.
Pjanic is a clear contender, if only through a million passes which can be all you need on limited match days. Way back in September/October Scouting when he was being hyped, I warned about going in too hard on a player that was clearly on a hot streak that was very likely to come to an end. He was chased up to £3.14 for that, but is back down to £2.26 now.
That actually looks a much better price these days and if Juventus have a good run he could get attention for Gold Days. Still got a chance of qualifying for the Euros through the playoffs too.
At the back, you can go for hype or substance. De Ligt is a poor performance player, always was. I pretty much savaged this on it’s way up to £3+ and have no sympathy at all that he is now £1.86, it was always coming.
Reasonable-ish baselines, he might get attention just for the hype, but with his numbers, he’d be very lucky to beat many other better defenders on the field.
Sandro is the better alternative at just 87p. Strong baselines and potential end product to make it count with good key passing and crossing stats. Whilst his trend fit is not strong, he’s cheap enough to be worth it at this stage if expecting a good run for Juventus in the CL.