Welcome to Part Two of the Value Hunting series.
In Part One I discuss the thinking behind this series, here I’m just going to get straight into the players.
Transfer / Media Picks
I am focusing here on high profile transfer stories who may be primed to benefit from a strong media announcement later this afternoon particularly if steps are taken to widen out the dividend returns a bit beyond just a top 3 of media winners.
Recent analysis of many of these is in the transfers section already but I will highlight my favourite selections here.
I’m doing this in quick fire style as I want to publish before FI’s announcement if possible.
The criteria:
– A high quality player, with real performance strength for the longer term.
– A medium to high chance of picking up a good amount of media in the coming months, and ideally primed to benefit short term from any media focused announcement.
– A reasonable value price, ideally dropping recently.
Player
Coutinho
Club
Bayern Munich
Ticks a lot of boxes at a value price. Really not much to dislike here given the multiple positive outcomes.
We’ve got a good chance of a big upside in terms of short term media and a big price rise IF he moves to the EPL or looks like doing so.
If he stays at Bayern, he’s brilliant there and worth his money.
If he returns to Barcelona struggles and is rotated that’s probably the worst case scenario but at £2.83 he’s still not bad value even then as he can always improve or move on from there.
Full review in transfers but I’ve liked this one for a while and I still think he’s got good prospects.
Player
Thomas Lemar
Club
Atletico
Picking up EPL links now including to Manchester United. Still at just £1.44 this makes the potential gain very high should that gather pace.
He’s had an awful time at Atletico no doubt. But let’s not forget he was one of Europe’s hottest talents signed for a huge fee in just 2018. And he’s just 24.
Performance scores at Atletico have been poor but it is very difficult for players to succeed in Simeone’s system. He could actually improve at Old Trafford.
At £1.44 there is a big upside here if the rumours gathered pace, and a 14p or so drop if they don’t is far from a disaster.
Player
Jesse Lingard
Club
Manchester United
Something a bit more leftfield but if he did make his way out of Old Trafford you could see him picking up some decent media.
Particularly so if FI broaden things out to include some smaller picks further down the market.
At 27, he’s still in the England setup and could even go somewhere decent like Leicester where he might improve with more games.
At 88p he looks a decent low key media pick to me who could be a good target to buy if FI’s announcement benefits some more low key media stories by paying 5 places or some kind of “Super Media Points” situation.
Player
Antoine Griezmann
Club
Barcelona
This is quite interesting and perhaps unexpected.
He is now being linked to Manchester United. Huge if so, but probably not true. However, somewhere like PSG as Neymar’s replacement wouldn’t be out of the question.
Griezmann has shown huge performance suitability for France when given his preferred role in a side and at PSG he could be the main man.
He’s also been linked to Chelsea or Arsenal. Even Everton.
These all feel like just rumours but rumours can be all you need this early ahead of a window.
£2.40 after a drop he’s a fair price even if nothing special happens and has significant upsides if holders drop on some good news.
Player
Samuel Umtiti
Club
Barcelona
This is one of the more credible Manchester United links and if so could pick up a decent burst of media in the short term. He is a high profile player even as a defender.
Hasn’t shown incredible performance suitability but it is not hard for even poor Manchester United defenders to kick on well above his current 87p particularly if he lands a media win.
Arsenal also possible.
Good value.
Player
Luka Jovic
Club
Real Madrid
What an awful season for Jovic.
Rewind a bit though and those around last season will remember him as something of a site favourite, he did well at Frankfurt and even showed performance suitability. Not at Real, though.
He is a good player and there is a reason Real signed him. The awful form sends him down to £1.82 from a high of £2.66 (a year ago £2.66 was a much bigger price relatively speaking too).
There are some loose rumours of a move to Chelsea or Tottenham which would push his price.
Or, even if he stays at Real and settles some £1.82 might look cheap.
Also currently in hot water for breaking corona quarantine and these stories don’t seem to be getting removed so he may pick up some media points for that.
Player
Ross Barkley
Club
Chelsea
Not sure this counts as a transfer pick yet but he has been picking up a bit of media.
His improved performances in the weeks before the EPL was suspended give him a chance of staying at Chelsea where he would look incredible value for £1.30 if playing regularly.
If he moves, presumably somewhere in the EPL, that would generate a bit of media at least. And he has very strong performance suitability that could come through even at a mid ranking club if that happens.
Moments like this when he is down to £1.30 or so are the moment to pick up Barkley.
If you look at his history he has these big moments often after a great performance where he spikes sharply and you want to be on board before they happen, not after.
Player
Fabian Ruiz
Club
Napoli
Could be a huge move either to Real or Barcelona but Liverpool and Manchester City are also in the mix as great potential outcomes.
He’s been very close to some big scores this season and Napoli’s struggles have held him back some. He’s also responsible for being wasteful in front of goal and we do need him to get more forward.
But, he really doesn’t have to develop much to become a regular performance winner, he’s close.
Also been getting Spain minutes.
With Napoli having a poor season he’s still available for just £2.67 down from a high of £3.11.
Great long term value with a potential for a short term spike.
Player
Donny Van de Beek
Club
Ajax
Still a good player, still has links to Real Madrid and EPL clubs. But now available 13p cheaper than a few weeks ago.
Not much to dislike here. As an ineligible league player the season being on hold is basically irrelevant to him.
Only a stay at Ajax scuppers the transfer and at this stage that doesn’t look likely. We should see further rumours.
Good value and his performance suitability makes him a solid longer term bet.
Player
Isco
Club
Real Madrid
One of those transfers where the low price and his performance quality make this something of a win win.
Whether he remains at Real as a fixture or the EPL moves heat up again picking Isco up at £1.65 looks hard to regret. He was up at £2 just a few months ago.
Player
Declan Rice
Club
West Ham
Declan Rice is a bad performance player.
With that out of the way, in a period of media with links live to big EPL clubs like Chelsea this is not a bad shout.
At £1.80 at season start holding him in hope of performance success was just plain misinformed.
But at £1.73 in a market that has risen a lot, with a long stretch of media ahead it looks much more sensible and it could rack up a string of dividends and a decent price rise.
Just don’t hang in too long expecting real value beyond any initial hype.
Player
Moussa Dembelé
Club
Lyon
Still a strong IPD player and prolific goalscorer. Still has links to the EPL and it would be a big move.
He has a high price ceiling because if he did come to the EPL and start smashing in goals (which he is very capable of) the media returns could be significant.
There is also the short term media from a move.
Not an unknown I was highlighting this a long time ago but he’s still the same player just 13p cheaper now.
If the move doesn’t happen he will look 30-40p overvalued at £2.81 but he’d likely bounce back at some point and the upside is high, you can see him pushing to £4 in the EPL and it’s a credible link to Chelsea.
Player
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic
Club
Lazio
A good player, still just 24. Some performance potential even if it hasn’t come through at Lazio.
He’s been linked with big moves for so long I think people get bored of it.
But this could be the Summer and those links to Manchester United are still alive. His price tag is still huge so it would be newsworthy wherever he goes.
At just £1.86 and a price that has remained very stubborn and stable at this level for 6 months now there looks to be a lot of potential upside here without too big a hit if we get bad transfer news.
He can easily push £3 with good fortune, I can’t see him below £1.50 even if staying at Lazio. Those are good odds.
Player
Leon Bailey
Club
Bayer Leverkusen
Big EPL links live including Arsenal and Chelsea.
This would be a big move for a player with big FI potential.
Full review over in Transfers but safe to say I like this one and it is media worthy.
At £1.82 and still just 22 he still looks decent value even if he is playing for Leverkusen more regularly next season.
Player
Houssem Aouar
Club
Lyon
At just 21 with some FI suitability and links to huge clubs including Manchester City, Juventus and PSG (or even Chelsea) he still looks good value at £2.63.
If EPL links gather pace and it does look like happening you can see him racking up some media and pushing over £3 and to £3.50 with ease.
If he doesn’t and he ends up at Juventus, PSG or even staying at Lyon £2.63 is not an unreasonable price for a long term hold.
Solid pick.
Player
Andrea Belotti
Club
Torino
Well back in value range at £1.35 and the great thing here is that links to West Ham or Everton would pick up some media, whilst other links to Napoli give him longer term value.
Even staying at Torino, he justifies his £1.35 for IPD purposes.
And he’s still just 26 and could find himself playing for Italy particularly if Immobile is ever injured.
Solid value after a drop with a chance of a media win and a price increase, and a decent value price even if nothing happens.