Welcome to Part Three of the Value Hunting series.
In Part One I discuss the thinking behind this series, here I’m just going to get straight into the players.
Off Trend Elite Veterans Part 2
Player
Ciro Immobile
Club
Lazio
Immobile was second only to Kroos in the most profitable players from pre-season scouting. He was severely underestimated by traders and went from just 69p to £2.04, a 195% capital gain from June to end November. He even reached £2.67 by February.
Are we going to get away with that again? Not quite, he’s £1.89 now which is nothing like as cheap as he was. But it’s still a very sizable 78p drop in just 6 weeks.
A great IPD source but he’s more than that, he is capable of wins on his day and has proven that this season bringing in 16p.
Leads for Italy, probably still will at Euro 2021 until proven otherwise.
He’s worth this money at Lazio, was only just 30 in Feb and has a long contract to 2023. And the icing on the cake is that he gets decent transfer rumours including to Chelsea, Liverpool, Napoli and – less brilliant but still an EPL move – Everton.
Not much to dislike here and if football looks back on the cards Immobile at £1.89 looks an easy yes to me.
Player
Angel Di Maria
Club
PSG
Another hugely profitable veteran from pre-season who went from 60p to £1.96 from June to October.
He just turned 32 last month, so now falls outside my ideal 28-31 age range for a veteran.
He does have exceptional performance quality though. Capable of performance wins and the incredible IPD haul is worth it alone. 9 goals and 19 assists in FI eligible competitions so far this season.
Looks difficult to drop in this form and has a contract until 2021, so looks set to start next season, particularly if Neymar has moved on.
If the season reboots he’ll have the CL ahead, the remainder of this season and the whole of next season to look forward to.
Great value again at £1.18 now if we start seeing positive news about football being back on the cards in the next few months.
Player
Dani Parejo
Club
Valencia
Parejo is capable of turning up any match day with a huge score and blowing the competition away to win Star Player. Valencia’s poor 2020 form has meant that hasn’t happened as often as it otherwise would have.
He’s about to turn 31 but is still Valencia’s key man and contracted until 2022 so he should be picking up where he left off for next season. Fringe Spain involvement a small plus.
Another fantastic pre-season pick at £1.25 hitting £3.18 by early November. But as per the trend dropping very sharply afterwards as most veterans did, not helped by poor Valencia results including going out of the CL.
£1.69 again now though and that is great value for a big dividend contender if football gets up and running again. The uncertainty over whether Valencia will qualify for European competition next season is a blot on the copy book.
They need to catch up 4-6 points on their rivals to qualify and currently sit outside the automatic places if the season is finished as things stand.
But given the price for his quality, I think he would be value even without European football.
Player
Andrej Kramaric
Club
Hoffenheim
Barely a veteran at 28 (29 in June) and not quite elite based on this season’s performances. But he is a hell of a lot better than his recent performance scores suggest.
Potentially, if he ever moved to a bigger club, I rate him as a 
. He can be good at Hoffenheim but he missed much of August to November with injury and Hoffenheim’s 2020 poor form didn’t help. His baseline personal stats are solid, and he has managed 7 goals and 2 assists in an injury hit season.
Plenty of Croatia minutes too. And probably a bit too good for Hoffenheim, he does pick up transfer rumours in most recent windows and at a good club he could really shine.
Taken a savaging from £1.73 in November to just £1.13 now.
Another strong value target for when football restarts, who can return at minimum good IPD at Hoffenheim and potential performance wins. The possibility of a transfer and further Croatia minutes are a nice bonus.
Player
Ilkay Gundogan
Club
Manchester City
Still 29 and not 30 until October, he’s on a long contract until 2023.
He does get rotated, as do many at City, but he does rack up plenty of minutes and can pop up with big scores regularly, and they can be 250+ and very competitive.
I was a bit sceptical of the value of this back when he was in fashion in October and he had spiked to £1.73 from 83p very quickly. I’m glad I was because he’s taken a real dive down to £1.01 by now.
But that’s well back in value range for a player that has consistent high baselines on his record. Those who shop (wrongly) by average score on a database can easily buy this sort of player in anticipation, and he can get buying when a big score appears.
This is the time to be buying an occasional winner like Gundogan when he has dropped and is out of the limelight. We don’t want to be buying him at £1.50+ after a big score and a price spike.
Player
Willian
Club
Chelsea
Something of a risk, but potentially a good one for the media as much as his decent performance quality.
His contract is set to expire and negotiations are stuck over the length of the contract, Willian wants 3 years, Chelsea want 2.
He’s dropped from £1.41 to 96p but has bounced up to £1.10 again. This is probably because there is a chance of a move to another EPL club if the Chelsea offer falls through. That could hoover up plenty of media, and we have a long window of that ahead.
Playing at any big EPL club, he’d be well worth his £1.10 and holders may enjoy a media related price spike and some dividends in the shorter term too.
There is a risky wipeout option – in the event he didn’t get a contract and returned to Brazil or something similar. But, he’s still performing well and I should have plenty of top level football to come.
Overall though I think the balance of risk and reward is pretty good here.