Time for a quick fire round up of transfer deadline day moves.
We’ll always need to see at least a few games at a players’ new club before we get a high degree of confidence about how they fit in and what sort of dividend return they might achieve.
But, there is plenty we can tell from historic performance, as well as what we know about the club they are going to. We will generally know enough already to tell whether the player has a decent shot at success or is basically a no hoper.
Thomas Partey - Atletico Madrid > Arsenal
Usually a high baseline low threat kind of player – but he blasts from range often and very occasionally one of these efforts on goal will find it’s way in – potentially generating a monster score once or twice a season. Can also win on soft Bronze days with baseline alone if there is limited competition. ?
£1.17 to £1.29 is very reasonable for what you get. The chances of an instant impact are low so it may be worth letting the fuss settle and trying for a lower price. But for a patient trader who is willing to hold until that big score comes… it’s decent.
On historic numbers he’s fairly average for FI – but the chatter is that Arsenal may give him chance to show a more attacking side of his game. Possible – Atletico are a really poor performance team and that stifles players.
If anything, I think he will be equal or slightly better to how he performed at Atletico, perhaps creeping up to in a best case where Arsenal give him attacking licence. Which is good for the money.
Alex Telles - Porto > Man Utd
Amazing numbers at face value… 13 goals in all competitions from full back last season! But, almost exclusively penalties which he is unlikely to get at United.
However he is a very forward thinking full back and his assist potential is strong. Crossing decent too. And assuming he is used naturally you’d have to think he will get a few chances of his own.
Attractive. But then the United defence are not a rich source of FI points.
or best case? Which is around 4-5 competitive scores per season in my ratings system.
£1.29 to £1.41 is fair and probably balances the risk and reward nicely. If you feel confident on him I think it’s reasonable to go for that, or you may want to wait and see a few games where we can have a bit more certainty.
Definitely one for the watchlist. Real potential is there he’s a quality addition. Price is fair. Could reasonably be gambled on now… I’d be more inclined to see a game or two before deciding.
Rafinha - Barcelona > PSG
Interesting move – the brother of Thiago Alcantara and actually not dissimilar in terms of style – just not as good.
However, he has been plying his trade at Celta Vigo and even Thiago wouldn’t look as good as Thiago playing there. Other than that, he’s languished as a reserve at Barcelona and Inter in recent seasons, often due to injury issues.
But he managed to get plenty of minutes on the board last season at Celta so that feels less concerning now.
He’s really quite good, and going back through old Inter/Barcelona games from 17/18 he’s got some real FI suitability.
PSG are also about as favourable a platform for FI scoring as it gets.
37p to 49p. Deary me. That looks outrageously cheap for a good potential player.
Playing a full 90 and in reasonable form I’d be confident he could do some damage on FI scoring, maybe, and dare I say it in the best case scenario where he becomes a week in, week out player in good form.
That’s the only question – where does he really fit in? It’s hard to say right now, maybe at the expense of Parades or Draxler at a guess. We need to see some minutes but.. given the price if you can really get that 37p bid or even up to 45p that looks like a strong punt given the potential upside.
The downer would be if PSG have only signed him for rotation. We don’t know yet.
Amad Traoré - Atalanta > Man Utd (Move in January)
Oof. One of those rare 18 year old’s that gets me hot under the collar… wait that sounded wrong. He isn’t on FI yet, though given he is going to United that will not last long once they get the new IPO system up and running.
His U19 stats are very nice though. He’s comfortable seeing a lot of the ball, adds goals, adds assists. Youngsters always have a lot to do and are high risk by nature as they may not make it. They also need 2-3 years to cook before you’ll see anything like the best of them.
But Traoré’s numbers are just about as encouraging as you’ll see outside of someone like Stengs/Curtis Jones – all be it at an U19 level.
Unknown as not on FI. £1 or even up to £1.50 would be an easy yes. Closer to £2… might be starting to get silly given it will be years before we really see him as a regular if ever. I wouldn’t want to pay more than £1.50 – beyond that you are really in flipping territory.
A genuine high potential youth player, one I’ll be interested in at IPO for sure.
Raphinha - Rennes > Leeds
I’ve liked Raphinha for a long time at Rennes as he had strong FI potential and a big move in him as a talented 23 year old Brazilian. Leeds is perhaps a surprising move and they are punching above their weight in the transfer market. Bielsa pulling power?
As per scouting Leeds have been impressing – but pinning down a target people will actually find sexy enough to buy has been less easy. We may have the candidate here.
Leeds may be a smaller club but they are looking good and Raphinha can capitalise on that. He can do it at Rennes occasionally and Leeds are better, although also face tougher opposition.
£1.09 to £1.33 is good value for a player who can win occasionally, and should chip in with some decent IPD if he hits form.
A capable winner if he fits in at Leeds. And if he performs well… it may not be his last stop he has Champions League club potential. Bielsa introduces players slowly though so I think we can probably get away with waiting to see a sub appearance or two before diving in.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek - Chelsea > Fulham - Loan
Ick. RLC was one of Chelsea’s most promising players but all these signings block him. He is probably better off at Fulham where at least he can get match fit and impress. But it will be a strange day if we see Fulham players winning performance unless Mitrovic gets a hatrick.
That said… he’s still only 24 and remains a highly suitable FI player. If he uses this season to play himself back into contention he could get himself to a club where he can realise his potential.
77p to £1.10 is actually pretty fair for a patient trader.
The value here is likely not in wins it’s in him playing himself into contention for a big transfer, or triumphant return to Chelsea, next Summer. That’s a bit far away so I would probably hold off and consider it in a few months time, particularly if he is looking good at Fulham.
Federico Chiesa - Fiorentina > Juventus - Loan
High, potentially which is 7-10 competitive scores per season in my ratings. Maybe a bit less than that at first as he beds in but 5-6 performance challenges would be enough at this price.
We should expect his overall numbers to improve at Juventus, and they weren’t bad already. He only has a smattering of big scores to his name but that was a lot to do with Fiorentina’s lack of wins as anything.
There is uncertainty about where he fits in. Will it be on the wing at the expense of Kulusevski? Will these two promising players rotate and dent each others prospects? Possibly. Chiesa probably wins that battle though as the older player and given Juventus have coveted Chiesa for years.
He may also be used as a wing back as he has recently for Fiorentina. He could do very well there although… that brings a reclassification risk to midfield or even defence. If defence… that would be incredibly unfair and he’d get a massive advantage on FI over other defenders.
Midfield… that’s much tougher because of the big hitters in that category.
£1.58 to £1.94. Certainly, towards the lower end of that price is incredible value. There are obstacles to overcome and risks as above but in trading we aren’t trying to eliminate all risk. We’re deciding whether the price we pay is worth it. I’d say it is here.
A very high potential player both for Italy and Juventus. Plenty of uncertainty so needs monitoring but I’d start optimistic.
Wylan Cyprien - Nice > Parma
This is bad news and unfortunate for holders as he was expected to get a better move than this.
I never liked the trade anyway – he was overhyped and the reason he could never really justify that was his reliance on penalties. Holders bought in hope of a big move but what then? At a big club he loses penalties almost certainly and that robs him of the main reason he ever generated a big score.
If he gets penalties back at Parma? That might be better but still it’s occasional wins at best. ?
£1.20 to £1.44… down from a high of £2.20. You can actually point out big drops even for good players at the moment to be fair. But this is one I think was always coming even if he did get a big move.
Not a no hoper – if he gets penalties at Parma we may see an occasional big score. But to make that worth it I’d want £1 or less.
Oussama Idrissi - AZ > Sevilla
24 years old, likely a midfielder once added to FI he is yet to be IPO’d.
Shows some superb numbers and I think he’s high potential, probably around . Could turn out to be a good player to have on side for Champions/Europa league games at Sevilla.
Dutch league stats are often flattering but you could knock 10-20% off them and they’d still be impressive.
Unknown. If he goes under the radar relatively at IPO and you could get him for £1 I’d be happy. £1.25 good, £1.50 absolute tops.
High potential player to look out for at IPO.
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting - PSG > Bayern Munich
Not high.. but then I’d back myself to score a few with the chances Bayern create. clearly the back up to Lewandowski so I’d only really consider him if Lewandowski got injured.
49p on the blue button and no bid price at all at time of writing! It’s hard to argue it’s not good value for that kind of money, even though it’s unexciting.
I wouldn’t generally go for this unless Lewandowski was injured but then… a lot of people would as it’s fairly obvious! The better strategy if you want to trade him may be to try and get an outrageously low bid matched now and then hope Lewandowski does get injured and you get a few buyers then.
Given a run of games you’d expect the IPD returns to be decent, too. Side note: could be bad for Zirkzee as it’s more competition.
Douglas Costa - Juventus > Bayern Munich - Loan
A last minute move – very un-Bayern like. But they clearly feared for squad depth at the last minute ahead of what will be a chock-a-block season.
It’s a good signing and Costa is a credible winner – always has been but the problem he has had is being mainly used as a sub. It is hard to see that really changing at Bayern, he’s certainly not displacing Gnabry or Sané. He’s probably a backup for both but then so is Coman and probably youngster Musiala gets some minutes too.
55p to 64p. Nobody can complain about that value. Even if he is rotated as fully expected… given a full match he is definitely capable of a big score.
It might be a bit of a hipster option but in the event of an injury to Gnabry/Coman/Sané you could see him getting a run and he may get interest.
I think a bit like Choupo-Moting – we’re going for a bit of a “vulture strategy” with this sort of player.
You are buying hoping for an injury to a key player that causes traders to go “ah-hah, Gnabry is injured, I’ll get Costa!” as the main profit potential. And you are holding already going “Ah-hah! Thought of that. You can have him, but for 90p”. Smug.
And when you consider that you paid around 60p… that is a hefty profit and is no joke. These trades can really pay off. In context, getting Costa from 60p to 90p because of an injury is the same percentage increase as getting someone like Bruno from £7 to £10.50.
One of those trades will be celebrated all over Twitter… one of them nobody will notice. But they are both big profits. We should never forget this because it is often outside of the big names where the best profits are made. It is also easy to blow yourself up that way, if you do it badly. So it’s important to have a good reason to buy a cheap player because most of them are bargain bucket for a very good reason. Anyway, I digress.
There is also an argument for covering your main man with their back up as a hedge to your bet.
If I hold Gnabry or Sané I’ll lose out if they get crocked. But I may also see people buying his back up… so I could limit the damage.
With all those things in mind… I think he’s a decent pick as he genuinely can win performance if given a game. And I love stacking up multiple ways I can win.
Michael Cuisance - Bayern Munich > Marseille
As per Scouting reports I’ve really liked Cuisance as a high potential young player. He looked set to figure for Bayern this season with Thiago leaving opening up space in the middle.
It seems however he got frustrated and wanted to leave for regular first team football. That was going to be Leeds but he failed the medical apparently – something now disputed by the player.
Marseille had no such concerns though and a last minute move was arranged.
I probably consider this move him landing on his feet. Marseille are in the CL unlike Leeds… and have some decent performance players in Thauvin and Payet already.
There should also be space for him in the side – Villas-Boas seems keen and Cuisance was a top target apparently.
The price has held relatively well despite the move. £1.20 to £1.45 is very reasonable.
Marseille are a decent club. The hope was he would break through at Bayern… but provided Marseille play him as a regular… this could actually end up being better.
And it is just a loan… so if he performs well Bayern may well bring him back as a first team option. For the money he remains a solid young prospect in my view.
Justin Kluivert - Roma > RB Leipzig - Loan
Kluivert has pretty much always looked awful at Roma. For FI certainly. In reality… he’s had some decent moments but he’s basically been a disappointment as he joined with high expectations.
Leipzig do have a reputation for turning around wonderkids gone bad, so this is a good move for him. He does have potential but he would need to become a first team regular and really improve from his Roma days.
81p to 94p. He’s got problems and a mountain to climb but at that price it is hard to say he isn’t worth a punt.
RB Leipzig are a good team and if Kluivert can get close to some of the stuff he used to produce for Ajax… he’ll be in with a shot.
I’m not super optimistic on him but given the price tag I think it’s a valid punt. I would say give it a game or two to see him in action before diving in.
Gerard Deulofeu - Watford > Udinese - Loan
Not awful. If he hits form and Udinese are doing well he could figure and people are familar with Udinese winners thanks to De Paul.
54p to 79p. Yeah. If he’s starting then he can be a decent IPD pick and he could even nick an occasional win.
Pretty good and it’s the price that makes this trade viable. I don’t have sky high expectations but it is possible for him to win and the potential IPD on it’s own would be enough to justify this price.
Facundo Pellistri - Penarol > Manchester United
Not on FI yet… should be a forward by rights. Looks kinda… average. Points for dribbles might save him a bit but will he get that freedom in the EPL? I’m not optimistic on his chances.
Not on FI yet. £1 or so would be decent value, I don’t think I’d be paying more than £1.50 tops.
Mainly about the hype. That first start, that first goal. All these things can get a young Manchester United player pumping. It’s just whether you can get him for a reasonable price at IPO – and then knowing that most likely he won’t be making a huge impact on actual FI scoring so if you do get lucky and get a rise because he scores a nice goal… probably don’t be too greedy.
But… we’ll have to re-evaluate that on his merits when we actually see minutes. But I’d start from the assumption he is not an FI world beater. Yet, could easily get pumped if he puts in an eye catching display.
There is nothing wrong with trading on that basis – provided you have full eyes open about the real ability. Otherwise you don’t know when to quit.
Edison Cavani - PSG > Manchester United
A surprise move – a year with an option for a second. A holder can obviously expect plenty of goals and some assists. Will he ever win performance dividends? Not regularly, I suspect.
He’d have to have a really big day… at least a couple of goals including a matchwinner most likely. But… he is Cavani and he can do that, so we can’t rule out some big scores.
Particularly if you catch him on a CL night or similar.. especially with limited competition he could nick it then. And IPD should flow too.
He’s also likely to get some media so that’s another angle. If he’s winning games and scoring that should be another avenue holders can profit from.
£1.32 to £1.42. This will not be the easiest trade to manage, so one for the more confident/experienced traders. However, at that price, he could more than reward holders.
The main question is whether he is going to be a regular starter or just rotation. I would expect him to start and it will be Rashford/Martial/Greenwood fighting for the two spots on the wings.
Assuming he is the regular center forward… I like this trade for the money. IPD should be there. Some media should come too. And there is at least a full season, probably two ahead of him.
He is also renowned for his incredible physical condition, and doesn’t rely on being particularly quick as it is. So there seems no real reason why he won’t pick up where he left off as a goalscoring machine.