It feels like a good time for a deep dive into the real wonderkids of FI.
In terms of strategy, it is the best time of year to have portfolios weighted heavily towards “Core” players who can win in the here and now.
As a rough guide, I’d want at least 60% of the portfolio value in this area right now and perhaps even higher as mentioned in recent State of the Market articles.
Many Core players are available cheaply and with CL/Europa knockouts about to start and Euro 2020 awaiting us, this can be the absolute best time of the year to hold the current stars of world football.
However, that still leaves 40-20% of a portfolio free for other things and there is rarely a bad time to hold some of the really high potential youngsters.
In some cases, a high potential youngster can also be a Core player having acheived regular minutes at a young age and may already be in contention for dividends. This can be a particularly powerful combo.
First let’s quickly cover exactly what I’m looking for with young players.
What makes a great youth pick?
The best youth picks satisfy the analysts and those who trade on hype and speculation.
I’d boil this down to three things.
1. Real FI Potential
Given a first team spot at a good club, how likely are they to genuinely be strong performers in the FI scoring system?
How likely are they to actually be playing regularly in the first team at a Europa/CL club in the next 1-3 seasons?
How likely are they to compete for media dividends?
Easy questions to ask, but they take lots of time, skill, experience and information to answer.
2. Trend fit and Hype
How closely do they fit the common stereotype of what a “good” FI player is i.e young (21 and under), could they play for a major international side ideally England, do they play for a major club, are they at an EPL club (or be likely to move to one).
Is the average person going to naturally see them as a good FI fit without any real analysis? i.e are they goalscoring and attacking and fun to watch.
Do they have a social media “cult” behind them?
3. Price
Often, when a youth player starts getting pumped, the price gets out ahead of all rational sense. This is a very dangerous time, even in good years. And 2020 was not a good year.
Price collapses in players like Greenwood and Sancho were essentially inevitable, and it was reckless to stay involved in these too long. Despite them actually having real ability and strong trend fits.
The price was way out ahead of their actual ability and we want to avoid holding too long when this is the case. At that point, potential returns are low and risks are high.
Managing Youth Picks in Portfolios
If we can pinpoint the players that have real ability, a good trend fit and do not come with outrageous price tags, we’ll have a strong chance of success.
But bear in mind, youth players are always quite long range and they are risky.
It’s probably one of the biggest collective delusions on FI that youth is low risk because they have years ahead, and veterans are high risk because they might only have 2-3 seasons left.
But we’ll actually know a lot about that veteran and he probably comes with a modest price tag to match his situation. It is actually many of the veterans who offer both the highest profit potential and the lowest risk.
It doesn’t seem to matter how many youth players fail to meet expectations and collapse, this view seems to persist at least on social media.
But huge profits are available at the youth end, provided we trade them correctly and I encourage this. We want to be securing them at value prices, and want realistic potential to back them up so that even those who endure frustrating times have a reasonable chance of forcing their way back in, just as Hudson-Odoi has done recently.
If we are holding a player who is all built on hype, if that hype fades, there is little to any chance of him ever recovering if he has no real underlying value.
But all youth picks can be quite high maintenance trades. It surprises me to sometimes hear comments like “I’ll just buy this bunch of youngsters and see what happens in 2-3 seasons”. There will be a huge failure rate that way, it’s in early career where uncertainty is highest.
We’ll need to follow their fortunes quite closely to ensure they retain a decent path to first team football. That’s another reason why having 50 of them is generally not a good idea for most people. I would say most would benefit from around 7-10 of the best possible youth picks at most times to concentrate money in the best of them and make sure they can realistically keep an eye on them.
Finally, I always say never become the “true believer” who really thinks he has the next Messi for under £1. Almost all of the time, the true believer will be wrong. And that 1 win from that 1 player who does become a global star won’t compensate him for the 20 times he loses.
Sometimes our youth picks will break out and do really well, and if they rocket in price well beyond what they can really justify in the next 1-2 seasons we probably want to take profits whilst we can. One of the most important things about trading around the hype for youth can be knowing when to stop, Sancho being the prime example from last season.
Real FI Wonderkids
Rayan Cherki - 17 - Lyon
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
Yeuch.
There have been times in 2020 when discussing the madness of Cherki would almost make me want to be sick in my mouth.
Yet, there was never much wrong with the player – it was reckless traders causing this price to spike to £6+ not even 6 months ago. I’ve just got zero sympathy with anyone taking a loss on this – it’s the exact kind of thing I’m talking about when I say don’t hold players beyond a price they can rationally justify.
Down at £1.15 to £1.57 now, at a lower end of that bid he’s actually very attractive. He’s getting some reasonable minutes at Lyon. And last night he scored a wonderful goal in the cup which is worth watching.
It’s long range, but by next season he’ll be 18 and Lyon probably sell 2-3 players in Summer that could free up space.
When people get burned following a pump, they can then sell hard and fast, opening up value in players that actually have decent long term potential. It happened to Hudson-Odoi, and with patience, it could happen here.
Cherki does have ability and a nice profile – the social media cult just went in hard a season or two early at too high a price. Good value now for a patient hold.
Jude Bellingham - 17 - Dortmund
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
Another bad social media pump who could eventually come good.
He’s showing more encouraging numbers at Dortmund than I expected and seeing decent pitch time too. Whilst he is a touch deep, he’s getting chances. I don’t expect regular big scores but with a goal he could win and we might see that at least once before the season is out.
Whilst waiting for that might take patience, if it happens, he could rise sharply due to the strong hype factors.
At just £1.21 now that looks like a good bet to me, even if I’m not 100% convinced he’ll be a very regular FI winner longer term.
Amad Diallo Traoré - 18 - Manchester United
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
Not exactly a secret these days but worth noting that there is substance behind this hype. His Under 23 appearances for Man. Utd have been exceptional, racking up 3 goals and 3 assists in his first two games.
Watch this hold carefully as early excitement could evaporate if he doesn’t make it onto the pitch soon but £1.84 is fair given the potential ceiling and has plenty of room to grow.
Obviously, youngsters are always high risk but if he succeeds at Manchester United Traoré could be the real deal, excellent FI numbers in his youth record and in what we have seen so far in the United U23’s.
Curtis Jones - 20 - Liverpool
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
It is rare on FI to see such a rare combination of genuine FI suitability plus a near perfect trend fit. And getting significant first team minutes too.
He is very competitive already given a full 90 and has plenty of time to improve.
Any young player can run into a road block and there are no sure things but he’s got all the ingredients we can possibly ask for in a youngster.
I marvel at anyone who is actually selling for £1.07.
Jamal Musiala - 17 - Bayern Munich
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
Seeing some regular minutes at Bayern with some solid underlying numbers on a per minute basis. Currently in a tussle between England and Germany to see who he will play for. He’s always been an England youth international, though.
Either way, £1.36 or thereabouts solid value for a high potential player with genuine FI suitability.
Martin Odegaard - 22 - Arsenal
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
The original Football Manager wonderkid of FI.
He has had a long journey but he is still just 22, and probably in his best position yet to actually make an impact on FI scoring. Whilst being at one of his lowest price points.
Per minute his first appearance for Arsenal versus Villa was encouraging and he has plenty of time on his side, whether it works out at Arsenal or he returns to Real. Could do very well at a big club for FI purposes and at 95p it looks a really strong pick.
Florian Neuhaus - 23 - Gladbach
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
Not quite a kid anymore but reaching a good stage where he is competitive for dividends at Gladbach yet has very strong links to Dortmund and Bayern for the Summer. And is getting in Germany squads, too.
For a bargain 54p or thereabouts it’s a really strong pick.
Paulinho - 20 - Leverkusen
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
A forgotten man after a bad ACL injury that has kept him out since June 2020. But he’s back in training and we may see him reintroduced before too long.
On a per minute basis he has looked one of Leverkusen’s best performance assets, I might go so far as to say he would be the best of them given the chance. 58p to 76p is great value for a very high potential young player.
Daniel Maldini - 19 - Milan
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
One of the more long range picks, he will need a season or two to cook at least. But he is getting minutes from the bench at Milan. And some of his U19 numbers are very impressive indeed, he has a nice style for FI.
You can make a case that there are youngsters in this price range who are much closer to making an impact. I would agree.
However, for about 82p you are getting a young player with real potential and he can easily catch light with a few goals – traders do love players with famous fathers! There is something about the familiarity that makes them easier to sell.
Florian Wirtz - 17 - Leverkusen
Real FI Potential
Trend Fit and Hype
I’ve covered him in scouting plenty this season well before his IPO. It really is quite impressive how he has become a first team regular at just 17.
He’s in contention for wins already. In his brief time on the platform we’ve seen one decent score, had he been on all season it would not be the only one.
Now that the IPO has settled he might be had for £1.52 or just over and whilst that isn’t the cheapest on this list, he’s the real deal and Leverkusen have a kind set of fixtures ahead.