Welcome to the Sorare focused MLS highlights from Sorare gameweek #164!
This is gameweek 4 in the MLS which is a very free scoring League. The more we see the more reliable data should be when it comes to predicting what happens next.
I generally find that 5-8 gameweeks after a season start is when we can really start to see reliable patterns.
They have already been forming but we are still seeing more than a few curveballs in this unpredictable League especially when it comes down to just a single gameweek.
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Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
This one did play out as expected, with a 1-2 win for the Sounders.
Ruidiaz, captain of my premium side from the Friday team builds, showed why I place faith in him. He scored, only ending up with 60 but this could have been more, he had more than enough threat for another brace or hatrick. When you get a goal for 60 points and feel unlucky not to get more you know you have a quality player.
Montero came through to score as well, his returns per minute are fantastic so far and we may see him starting more now he is back to fitness. He could turn out to be great value. I said this a lot in pre-season and he has shown it whenever he is on the pitch, but that injury has given him a slow start. I’m confident with him.
Bruin however is very awkward as I touched on last time – and this is more of the same. He’s playing well and useful to the team but his goal threat is non-existant. The assist potential is there though, unlucky to miss out here. I still think he is a great value option in a budget side but in a mid-price or above team the inconsistency would be hard to tolerate.
We may see more from the Montero/Bruin combo as Ruidiaz, brilliant as he is, is expected to miss significant stretches of games with internationals.
Roldan had his chances to both score and assist, he didn’t do much wrong but scored lower than usual as this was a tougher match up with lower than usual possession. This is one reason I didn’t stack Seattle last week out of respect for Portland.
It will be interesting when Lodeiro comes back as Roldan is likely to be pushed back deeper and we will have to speculate about whether this will cause him to lose some of his edge. I wouldn’t panic though because he’s never had an issue getting forward even from deep in the past.
Lodeiro a surprising absentee due to knee pain, his comeback delayed. He is quality though, maybe if this frustration leads people to sell cheap it could be a good value opportunity.
Whilst the Sounders were expected to win, it could have been very different, a Valeri penalty miss for Portland the pivotal point in the game. I rate Valeri and think he is up there with the elite veteran midfielders like Maxi Moralez at NYFC.
A penalty miss is frustrating but in many ways it just shows how close he comes – he’s looked a consistent danger throughout this season and also has big assist potential.
Portland have had a poor start results wise but have actually not played badly and have been hampered by midweek CONCACAF CL exploits. People may underestimate them now and I would expect an improvement – I like to take advantage of these situations if seeking value as a few bad results can make impatient people drop prices.
Forward Mora is looking great value. Valeri too. Keeper Clark is still sidelined with injury but should return when fit. And I rate Yimmi Chara as a budget option who has pretty good baseline numbers and better threat and assist potential than this 6 match barren spell would indicate.
You can make the case for his veteran brother too at 35 – Diego Chara – who can produce consistently solid baselines in the 50-60’s for a budget price.
Tuiloma was the 94 point hero with a free kick, strange for a CB! I would not be expecting this again and his start is questionable.
Columbus Crew vs D.C United
An interesting game that upset my predictions in a number of ways!
The week before last I backed Zelarayan and a couple more Columbus players only for them to look tired and flop after midweek CL exploits. That led me to dodging these players this time on account of that risk plus DC United’s defensive stubbornness.
This time Zelarayan delivered though from a free kick which was his only real chance of the game. Whilst you can spot quality and bank on it shining through in 5-6 games or so, anything can happen in a one off game. Overall, it is worthwhile lining up the form and fixtures in our favour and eventually this pays but in a single gameweek things like this just happen.
Despite 3 goals though, DC were indeed miserly in giving away quality chances and Columbus are very fortunate here to score 3 including 2 own goals. On another day this could have been a shutout and I remain wary of the D.C United defence even though algorithms and betting odds will often tell us they will get dunked on.
I did go for Afful as my budget defender on Friday though but this did not pay off – to say Columbus were at home they let D.C have the ball which I did not expect. I was banking on Afful seeing more of it, not so.
DC have improved their attacking threat in the last 2 games too, defying my anticipated clean sheet hopes for Room in my premium side. DC’s threat is still not great though and I’d continue to put in keepers versus D.C. Room’s 48 isn’t bad anyway.
Some unexpected goings on here but we only have 3 games to go on this season so it should not actually surprise us that patterns are not fully established, that takes longer. Also, if we could predict everything football wouldn’t be football.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United
Minnesota are having a nightmare start. They were expected to be amongst the best sides around but they have lost all 4 opening games. They threw a 2-0 lead here too adding insult to injury.
Reynoso still looks good and if he is added to the platform I remain very interested. A goal here. But there is assist potential too as well as solid baselines on offer.
And Lod who I’ve been bullish on keeps on performing despite his teams struggles. He got an assist but also went close to scoring again. He is really cheap again now as people flee from Minnesota but it can only get better from here in terms of results, and Lod is doing well regardless. Value. Winning games just doesn’t matter as much on Sorare as it does on other platforms.
It was a great comeback from Colorado though and more than that they dominated the game and produced some decent scores. I’ve been keen on Jack Price as a great value option – he delivers yet again and he is quickly becoming mid-price rather than budget from the time of my pre-season preview.
Cole Bassett, good youngster, shines again with a goal. He threatened this off the bench last week actually. Should get some rotation but he’s good, at the $650 mark right now is pretty good value.
No dice this time for Diego Rubio who I picked for my mid-price team on Friday but he was in the right areas and managed 49 anyway, which isn’t bad for an off week. Overall he looks great value and we just can’t expect players to score every week even when in good form.
Danny Wilson was impressive with 94. He’s a CB and the threat in the last 3 has been very strong actually, so this is not an accident. A good target for a CB might be 3-5 a season so it can’t be expected every week. But Wilso is solid enough in his all round game to deliver 55-60 anyway. Good budget option.
LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC
Derbies are tricky games but LAFC were still expected to win. They dominated but Galaxy were more clinical and ran out 2-1 winners.
Galaxy started the season with some low expectations but are defying them, Chicharito in particular who scored here and assisted too. He is rising in prestige yet with prices suppressed a bit anyway $950 or so is decent value. I would put him in the mid-range price bracket rather than the premium though.
Whilst this goal and assist output is a fair reflection of his efforts, he doesn’t bring much in terms of baseline which makes it hard for him to really hit the 80+ scores.
Williams, new CB, scored big on Sorare with an assist. I’d hang fire before rushing to that, assists are not his trademark. Could have a decent baseline though so might be one to watch for consistency in the games ahead.
I am not seeing many standout options at Galaxy aside from Chicharito, actually. Chances spread evenly throughout the side and it is currently hard to point the finger at someone head and shoulders above the pack.
Despite losing LAFC dominated the game and still put up some credible SO5 scores. In complex scoring system based games I actually prefer it when players are given a bonus for winning and possibly a penalty for losing. This tends to give results more in line with what the watching fan might expect. There is something slightly odd when the losers are winners.
But this is how Sorare give cards value outside of the big teams, and maybe it is a necessary sacrifice in a collectible game.
Rossi, from my premium team on Friday, came through with a goal. Despite missing out recently and his slow start I backed him because whilst he has blanked he missed out narrowly in the previous game. Not so this time, and no reason not to expect this to continue. Quality.
And I like to buy players like this when they have a little dry spell – expectations get heaped on their shoulders – then those expectations are not met and people panic sell. But if the underlying numbers look good we can retain confidence in these players. Whether they score or not in one game tells us almost nothing yet people are often so fixated on what happened last week.
Baird assisted and he continues to look a good value route into the LAFC attack but with some uncertainty when Vela returns. Baird is quite versatile though so could fit in across the front line. Good back up / rotation player but if he was your lone Forward you might be left sweating.
Atuesta was good and whilst I say he is overpriced and don’t regret it I also say he is quality. But you can pay too much for a good player.
If you are rich enough you just might not care and be happy that he can pull in a 60 even on a bad day. And it could have been more he was very close to an assist here. The only time I’d object to this pick is if the rest of your team was weak – it is very likely you can sell this for a profit to strengthen elsewhere and find a midfielder, or pair of midfielders that can rotate, who can match or even better this output.
It’s just a bit of a premium you pay for making lazy/obvious choices.
Vancouver vs Montreal
I’ve not been keen on Vancouver and was impressed with Montreal in recent weeks, yet Vancouver ran out 2-0 winners anyway!
I’m not entirely sure how they are getting away with this. Montreal had plenty of chances but couldn’t get through.
This season Vancouver are amongst the worst for Expected Goals Against (xGA) yet only 3 teams have conceded fewer than them. A real outlier. When this happens, probabilities usually start to assert themselves eventually. Very occasionally they don’t but I’ve never made any money in betting against the odds in the long term.
Good news for Crepeau holders but I not sure how long this lasts!
Dajome did the damage for the Caps and it’s a shame he isn’t on Sorare yet as he could have been picked out.
Cavallini is therefore the focus but it has to be said in the last 3 games he has looked poor and this goalless run does not look unfortunate. He is creating some chances though and decent baselines are keeping his points ticking over. So all hope is not lost but holders will want to see this threat improve or he’ll start to feel like a waste in that potentially explosive Forward slot.
Best of the Rest
An obvious pattern with Miami – they just do not want the ball and this is a big turn off for baselines in scoring systems. However they get a lot of chances with the possession they do have. Morgan and Higuain look the most likely to defy that rule right now.
I liked Lewis Morgan in pre-season articles but early numbers this season were dire. This is much better, showing his creativity and threat from last season which is why he came out of my preview well. If Miami rely on him this much he could be great value.
Higuain unlucky not to score again, too, he looks monstrous. But you will need the goals out of him because he doesn’t do much else. To me that puts him in mid-price territory rather than premium, even at his best.
Josef Martinez at Atlanta United scored his first goal after coming back from injury, which is good. However, he looks sluggish after that ACL injury and it could take weeks for him to be back to the player he was. Despite the goal, his numbers in the last 3 are very underwhelming.
This is why I was not keen at all in pre-season when he was amongst the most expensive players around because of his excellent historic record. These are lose lose trades – if he meets expectations you paid too much. If he doesn’t, you get a major price fall. If he keeps underperforming for a few weeks he may drop to extreme value and he could then find his fitness, he does have great quality. The price isn’t outrageous now actually but with his numbers so weak I wouldn’t rush to it.
Orlando and NYFC are both solid outfits and cancelled each other out, partly why I dodged both in my team builds on Friday. Both have better fixtures to come though and look good at the back. Nani and Castellanos score here anyway, no surprise for readers of last weeks match report. Pereyra at Orlando looking really good as a value option – assisted here and that’s no fluke. Can also add goals. Maxi Moralez who I rate highly pulled up before the game injured, unlucky. Haven’t seen any news on that injury yet.
Nashville had a nice win and another shutout versus New England. I always felt their early defensive slip ups felt unfortunate and they did a good job in limiting a generally dangerous New England attack here. Buksa, from my Friday budget team, was denied but had good chances. Quite remarkable he has gone goalless in 3 – he is a consistent danger and could now be available for great value.
On the other side, Leal, a player I’ve been bullish on since pre-season missed out here but he was unlucky not to score with 5 efforts and he was creative too. Blanked in 2 but still looking strong, I rate him. Plus he managed 58 on an off week anyway – this is why I liked him.
I keep giving chances to Beric from Chicago Fire in my Friday builds and he has let me down twice now! Previously he has looked unlucky not to score. This time, he didn’t even get a serious chance. That makes him hard to pick again, yet, his record is so good and it is likely this is more blip than his new level. It could actually be worth taking advantage of this slump to pick up a pre-season favourite cheaply.
New York Red Bulls are over-performing some low expectations. Caden Clark, youngster mentioned last week, is the star of the show again. Really impressive. Irritates me slightly that his cards are not available because this could have been seen much earlier from historic numbers, and by the time he is launched it is now going to be blindingly obvious.
Likewise, Fabio has been looking great at NYRB… but he’s not available. Another assist here and another chance to pickout a value player goes missing due to lack of availability. However it isn’t all doom. I highlighted Casseres in my Friday budget build and whilst he blanked for the first game in 3, he managed 55 anyway on a relatively bad day. That’s no accident. I really like him for a budget side.
Speaking of my budget side Kreilach also performed at Salt Lake, grabbing the assist. Actually really unfortunate not to add a goal to that. Looking great for the money. His team mate Rubio Rubin as reported here continues to look good, adding another goal. Can’t buy him yet, though.
Wondolowski, veteran striker, is the 2 goal hero who turned it around for the Quakes. He is a hard sell at 38 years old! He’s also been coming off the bench. But per minute his threat is monstrous so there is a case here for having him in a budget side as he can punch well above the weight of his $150 price tag given the chance.
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