It’s an interesting week to try to predict. On paper, if you believe betting odds and algorithms anyway, we have a few expected mismatches that could result in one sided big scores. In theory.

I do put stock in these things – algorithms like my fixture ticker I find to be particularly useful for challenging the lazy assumptions that we all fall into. But we also need to consider that Sorare is it’s own game, just because a team is expected to win the match doesn’t mean certain players in the opposing team can’t put up a good Sorare score.

Also, odds and algorithms are based heavily on historic data, and can be a bit slow to catch up with recent events.

For example, this week NYFC vs Columbus is billed as an NYFC walkover because Columbus have been so poor. But Columbus have quality and will probably find their groove at some point, and NYFC are heavily injury ridden with key players like Tinnerholm and Moralez expected to be out. (which ruins my team, by the way!). 

Also Columbus have been ok defensively, so whilst the betting makes NYFC heavy favourites I’d probably be expecting a 1-0 or 1-1 rather than a 4-0. 

Portland vs Galaxy is also interesting because Galaxy are much improved, but Portland are heavy favourites. Portland are better than their recent results show in my view. For Sorare purposes this looks like an even game between two teams who have been middle of the pack for both attacking and defensive strength. 

Houston are also heavy favourites versus Vancouver. I’ve been down on Vancouver but Houston are leaky and someone like Cavallini could still be backed here. 

Orlando are probably a good team to back this week versus Toronto, Orlando are looking solid at the back and have a standout player in Nani.

Dallas are favourites versus Salt Lake but I’m not overly keen, Dallas haven’t been exactly free scoring and Salt Lake haven’t given much away this season. Both middle of the pack sides where I’d play form players but not go out of my way to stack them. 

I like New England who have form players like Gil and Buksa who I’d almost certainly be playing if I had them in a kind home fixture versus the Red Bulls. However the Bulls look weak in attack but stubborn in defence so I might not assume it will be 2-3 goals to nil game.

The Earthquakes vs Sporting Kansas is billed as an even game and I’d play form attackers from either team here. Strong attacks on both sides.

In odds and algorithm LAFC should be smashing Colorado but I’m not really buying that. LAFC are living on reputation right now and Colorado have looked good. I wouldn’t rush to go up against LAFC but if I had a form Colorado player like Rubin and had nothing better that would be fine. I might not want a possession based player like Jack Price this week though. Equally, if I had Rossi or Vela I’m not going to be benching them either!

The Sounders are the Sounders and if you have form players like Ruidiaz or either Roldan or a returning Lodeiro you probably play them. But note that Atlanta are no pushovers defensively and like to get on the ball too, which could choke off some Sounders baselines. Unless Atlanta decide to defend deep in this tough away game. 

Nashville is a good fixture to target versus Austin. Nashville are defensively sound and whilst Austin are performing above expectations those expectations were low to start with. This could be a good source of points. 

Phildadelphia have decent attackers who could profit versus DC United but I find them a stubborn side who haven’t given away more than 1 goal too often, and when they last did versus Columbus it was unfortunate. I see them as a decent defensive unit and I think odds and algorithm underrate them. At least for our purposes.

Montreal play Cincinnati and like I said in Monday’s match report – I’d be putting in any half decent attacker versus Cincy. 

Inter Miami have some key form players who might do well versus Chicago Fire, most obviously Higuain. Lewis Morgan is improving too. 

My overall thought for this week is that I will be prioritising form players rather than fixtures. There aren’t many games I see as walkovers that warrant heavy stacking. Maybe Nashville vs Austin. 

Minnesota the team to miss out this week with no fixture. No fanboying on Lod this week for me.