Another terrifyingly good FI performance in the midweek game versus Wolves. That is even more scary when you consider out of all the teams in Europe they sit at the top of my new Fixture Ticker – i.e they have the highest combined win probability in the next 6 games of any team in Europe.
Do check out the Ticker – it’s in beta as it was only built yesterday but it’s certainly saving me some time so far. I had some help here from a genuine no foolin’ Data Scientist. Any feedback welcome as I’ll be tidying it up – particularly it’s presentation on mobile which is not perfect.
What prevented truly monstrous scores in this game is that Gabriel Jesus got 2 of the 4 goals. Or should we call him Gabriel Judas! Because he is the one City player that most FI traders do not want to see scoring as he usually does not make it count.
However I will say this for Jesus – he is cheap now and would be well worth a punt for a CL Gold Night where just a goal can nick it. I would consider it quite shrewd to pick him up in anticipation of optimism ahead of such a game.
It did not stop Mahrez and Rodri powering ahead anyway for the wins. Neither of which should be a surprise to Scouting readers. I feature Rodri often and said this of Mahrez just 2 days before that win:
“Mahrez the other standout. Never looks far from wins and the CL campaign will be his time to shine and return big chunks of his purchase price in dividend wins. With no Euro 2020 he is more vulnerable to a knockout but if City get a decent draw I’d expect interest in him to rise.”
That is still true. In fact more true – this recent win will give traders that little push and reminder they need to go for him in a run of favourable fixtures. Again, this habit of waiting for reassurance from big scores… if I was coaching someone on FI trading and they kept doing this it would make me tear my hair out.
Cancelo close again too. Pretty much always is, no need to cover that again except to note the consistency.
De Bruyne had no reward but was very, very close. He is probably the best candidate to pull some kind of Kroos comeback story. He is so good he is not just likely to win but there is a decent chance he could string wins together. And the price is pulled down because of his injury and quiet spell.
Again the City CB combo looks strong. Pick any of them or all 3 of Dias, Stones or Laporte – they are all strong and can win and all remain value. People have these rules like “CB’s are bad for FI”. No. Most CB’s are bad for FI. Some of them are exceptional and good for FI certainly for what we are paying.
Little between them, all high baseline and can win without a goal particularly on Bronze/Silva or European Gold nights, all capable of an odd goal to really power the score up there even on the most competitive day.
Another 0-0 for United. 3 on the bounce. Panic stations?
Probably not. Manchester City next is tough. Then they have AC Milan twice sandwiched between West Ham. The home tie of AC Milan and the West Ham game are pretty favourable.
No goal in 3 for Bruno Fernandes but no real cause for holders to worry. His numbers are holding. Yesterday he had no shots but was in the right areas. He’s demonstrated strong threat from open play plus those penalties are a boost.
Still one of the best premiums around that doesn’t come with the wild swings that will be experienced with the Haaland and Sancho transfer trades.
Him aside there are familiar standouts from recent scouting who are showing more consistency.
Maguire. Still under pressure for mistakes from the fans and media but in FI terms he is looking very strong. That big score is coming if he maintains his level.
Shaw too. Another good game where he had a chance to score and was creative again, crossing particularly good. Value.
Greenwood had some reasonable FI numbers yet had a poor game to watch. Yet, if the “dream” FI trend fit is a young English Manchester United attacker who has the potential to become a regular dividend contender in 2-3 seasons… there aren’t many closer.
I still shake my head at the £9 to £10 price and wonder what on earth people were thinking here. But for £2 a patient trader may end up happy.
Poor game for Rashford to watch. Yet not terrible in FI terms. Not exactly looking close to exploding but he can if things fall his way, he is probably at the upper end of at the moment.
But given his profile and media potential – if you are backing a general market recovery this year then it is hard to see how a player this popular does not get carried with it from £2.36 to £2.67.
A 0-0 is never likely to get the FI scores pumping but we can make some interesting observations nonetheless.
Firstly, Chelsea still went for it and tried to dominate versus a tough team. That’s a plus point that makes Chelsea assets more likely to win dividends more often in general. We saw that versus Atletico too.
It will be interesting to see if that holds up at Anfield!
Chelsea scores are not looking particularly sensitive to tough fixtures – just as well – because they have some hard games ahead.
Hudson-Odoi good for his half, surprisingly substituted for Reece James at half time. Both of these are good players capable of FI wins and come with great trend fits. But are they killing each other by sharing pitch time?
It’s certainly not helping. Adjust the totals of either over 90 minutes and they are both strong – but winning without at least playing 70 minutes or so is rare.
I would say at £1 and under for both, they should get chances and are capable winners that would likely get a good reaction on the market from a big score. I’d stay confident on both longer term, accepting that this rotation as a niggle rather than a killer.
Mount holders can be pleased with the performance and that his numbers held against tough opponents. He is still decent but has edged back a bit in this more difficult Chelsea run of fixtures as covered last time.
Holders will want to see his involvement tick up again when Chelsea face an opponent who will give up possession. Liverpool at Anfield won’t! After that Everton will be a chance for Chelsea to dominate the ball.
I would not stress too much though – it is a question of whether he will be just good or great.
Disappointing showing from Ziyech. I still hold out hope for him based on historic record plus some glimmers of excellence we have seen at Chelsea, most recently versus Wolves in late January.
A very stop start entry to the EPL for him. Retains potential but we will need better performances than yesterday and competition for minutes is fierce.
Start for Chilwell. Not bad, but hasn’t exactly stamped authority on the position either. Alonso has looked better on and off FI in truth. I do not think it is over for Chilwell at all but as a highly priced player this was always going to hurt.
At 82p to 99p you could decide you want to change horses to something that is less of a headache. But he probably still gets his chances if holding I don’t think that is a disaster.
Back to winning ways for Liverpool. And a matchwinner for youngster Curtis Jones which turns out to be a mixed bag.
The good news is that he has started yet again, looked completely at home, and in fact was one of their best players. Clinical finish. Lovely.
Yet, this matchwinner came on the day of one of his worst overall contributions in a long time so it did not register a big score. He made fewer passes than any other starting Liverpool player and that is very unlike him.
Holders might therefore have wished he did not score at all because most people just see “oh he got a matchwinner, and it wasn’t a big score, so he’s obviously not good”. This is very far from where the evidence really leads you but you can see how people get there.
On his average day, a matchwinner should get Curtis Jones in contention. Unless we are seeing the first in a major change to his usual game – which is possible but unlikely.
Klopp sprung a surprise in his formation that is likely specific to countering Sheffield, with Jones reined in a bit and other players tasked with carrying the ball. I’d expect Jones to be returned to his more influential position in the games ahead.
Overall the only sensible way to look at this game is another positive step in his development. And he will get points with the boss for being versatile. It’s just a shame for holders that this matchwinner fell on a day of unusually weak baseline numbers for him.
Alexander-Arnold is looking very dangerous recently, particularly in this role he was asked to play yesterday where he has to be defender and attacking midfielder both. He sits on Explosion Imminent and justifies the place. 3 efforts on goal himself yesterday plus 3 key passes that went unfinished.
Should be no surprise at all if he wins soon. That might get a nice market reaction so is a good bet at £3 or so. This rough patch for Liverpool has dragged his price back to somewhere vaguely rational.
I would not rule out Robertson either as the value option. Whilst TAA is ahead in the baselines… whichever one scores or assists can take home the dividends and Robertson looks just close to both those things. And for well under half the price.
Salah is looking solid too. With Liverpool looking likely to progress in the CL he might find himself in demand for a Gold Night or two, £1.37 or near that bid value.
Bale our star man yesterday. This was coming. Last week I said:
“I was surprised Bale didn’t start actually. Another great display from him and he has converted me in recent games. Not only have these displays made for much better viewing for the average fan, he is threatening some very tasty FI scores too if he can be trusted with a full game.
If you are going to take a punt on the Welshman there is no better time than now ahead of a possible deep Europa league run where he could net both performance and media.
Plus, any improvement could get him media and wins domestically, too.”
Check and check. Star man and media. Huge dividend. Massive price bump. Another lesson in how quickly yesterday’s toxic asset is today’s most lucrative trade – and how profitable seeing it coming that week or two earlier than most can be.
If we have the courage to go for it based on match data. Most do not – they need that comfort blanket of the big score first and this is a habit of bad traders that must be broken if we want the best results.
All the reassurance we need comes from match data not performance scores.
Is he value now? Well. The win is certainly no fluke and it can happen again. The recent numbers would put him at if he can sustain it. And there are kind fixtures ahead.
So, I would say he remains value yes.
There is a question of trading tactics. I plan to do a little analysis piece tomorrow on this new dividend deadline and the behaviour it encourages. It has looked positive so far and seems to be encouraging match day trading which we all want to see.
However in the back of my mind I have a theory that behaviour might change as people adapt to it. I haven’t done the analysis yet but it is looking to me like the rational move might be to always sell when a player wins. Whether you buy back in the next day or not.
If this is true and people figure it out eventually, this could be really bad as people will learn to stop piling in on the back of wins all over again. And at that point, the fun with the new dividend deadline stops. But that is just a back of my mind theory for now I’ll discuss that more tomorrow when I have thought about it some more.
At the moment Bale looks the standout performance asset at Spurs. But Kane and Son are not far behind either and I would consider both good holds for these kind fixtures ahead.
Good result for Arsenal over Leicester. Pepé the standout.
I’ve been of the view that Pepé is far from done and that the negativity around him was being overblown. Players face headwinds from time to time and Pepé certainly has. But on FI we are dealing not with the black and white question of whether they are good or bad, but are they value?
Particularly under the matching engine short term negativity can smash a price down really hard, it only takes one person to be willing to sell cheaply and that is the price you can get.
Whilst Pepé did not produce a big score this time, he was not far away. Playing regularly I’d peg him at and performances like yesterday will get him more minutes, he was great to watch.
He is also a beneficiary of Arsenal’s late Europa win as it sets up a decent fixture against Olympiacos which they are expected to win. For under 75p Pepe looks a steal.
Best part? Even if he was to flop at Arsenal and move on the chances of him landing on his feet somewhere are good, it was not that long ago he was one of the most in demand players in Europe. More than likely, another big club would give him a chance.
Speaking of comeback stories, Willian was impressive yesterday. In my pre-season Scouting I earmarked Willian as, in theory, the best performance player Arsenal had.
Early signs were good, and then, well, most will be aware of the season he has had – a shadow of himself. Yet, there is a reason I highlighted his strength – when he gets a game and plays well like yesterday he is very competitive.
174 yesterday with 1 assist, he had a decent chance to score. 250+ totals are on the board for him if this improvement continues.
24p to 34p… it would be a bit of a punt at this stage as we have yet to see consistent good displays but it is quite a good punt that could result in a smug win.
Tierney strong goal and assist potential keeps him on the radar. One of his poorer games for overall numbers but the last 7-8 games are excellent on the whole. I can see him winning again and I would say £1 is value still – particularly with a Europa run ahead.
Just the draw for Fulham – but worth quickly noting more good performances for Lookman and Loftus-Cheek.
Whilst expectations have to be kept in check at Fulham since they do not win many games, Lookman has some really strong numbers and he is capable of more wins, he is no one hit wonder.
Bodes well if he can get a big move too. We’re still in a world where prices even for recent winners can go quite low on bids and Lookman can still be picked up for under 50p most likely. I suspect patient traders end up very happy. And if Fulham win this season so can he.
Loftus-Cheek was praised for a good game too. He is almost the poster child of the 2020 price crash but there is hope for those still holding, or indeed those picking him up cheaply now.
He has the numbers to win at Fulham and is getting close. Regular chances in the last 3 and the baseline for the goal to count.
A short term win might be a nice boost however it is more about the transfer. Holders may be hoping for Fulham relegation so that Loftus-Cheek likely returns to Chelsea or possibly a bigger club than Fulham.
Another good day for my “just buy any City defender except Walker” strategy.
Stones won the media dividend but missed out on the defender dividend to Stuttgart’s Sosa. Dias challenged strongly too though and there is barely a cigarette paper between them in ability.
Laporte, rested here, is strong as well and there is no reason you could not hold all 3 to cover the rotation.
Even Walker was in contention although I do think he is the weakest of the lot. Yet. Give him a soft CL night and he can of course compete strongly.
Zinchenko is brilliant and is establishing more and more and can be trusted for regular game time by now. We should see big scores from him.
Cancelo remains the strongest although was rested here but that’s Pep roulette – not a major problem to miss the odd game.
All of these remain value pickups. Zinchenko is probably best value at an under 75p bid as he is yet to explode but it is very likely he will have his big moments.
Far from De Bruyne’s best display but you can forgive him after a period on the sidelines. In FI terms however it held up well and he did chip in with an assist.
Once he is back to full fitness it would be a surprise if we do not see De Bruyne come back with a bang. Price is low because of this quiet period for him and it is likely a good time to take advantage.
Could star in any long CL run and will be a big draw for Belgium at Euro 2020 who are one of the tournament favourites alongside (dare I say it) England.
Ferran Torres continues to get minutes, not his greatest game, but in FI terms he is competitive when played on the wing. I suspect patient traders end up happy and given a full game he could nick a win before this season is out too. A high quality young player with a low price tag.
Mahrez the other standout. Never looks far from wins and the CL campaign will be his time to shine and return big chunks of his purchase price in dividend wins. With no Euro 2020 he is more vulnerable to a knockout but if City get a decent draw I’d expect interest in him to rise.
No win for Leeds but another dominant, FI friendly performance.
Raphinha getting all the hype for his stellar performances and it is not undeserved. The big club transfer rumours will be surfacing but good luck – Leeds have him contracted to the eyeballs and will be in no mood to entertain offers this Summer.
At £1.29 to £1.45 holders will need some short term joy to keep that running I suspect. Give it a month or two and his brilliance will be old news.
There are only 2 of the next 7 games that I would consider favourable to Leeds, so it may be an uphill struggle.
However. He is quite a special FI player that I have compared to Rodrigo De Paul – just so involved in everything that he can hoover up points like a magnet when he has a strong game.
I suspect long term holders have little to worry about. But I would be concerned that high expectations and difficult fixtures conspire against him in the nearer term.
Dallas is also a likely winner and has the benefit of being less hyped and under less pressure than Raphinha at a stable 43p to 62p.
Familiar story at Leverkusen yesterday with another loss in a game they should win on paper.
They are on a really poor run – winless in 5 now. That, combined with an unexpected Europa knock out is heaping the negativity on their assets.
Yet, the underlying numbers are fantastic and that was no different yesterday. If Leverkusen can get results they can bring home dividends too. Gladbach next is tough but after that it’s a little kinder.
Bailey got their goal, great move and finish too. Much improved season for him and great underlying numbers. Were Leverkusen in better form he’d likely have been troubling the top of the leaderboard at least a couple of times in this past month.
Amiri. Tapsoba. Tah. All remain strong in themselves. Wirtz too, although his shots have dropped away in the last 3. But his playing position is fine and things can fall his way.
Demerai Gray is worth watching. Getting reasonable minutes but is looking some way behind the players above right now. But I’ll keep monitoring him – he is a player people would react to if he won most likely.
Diaby solid. The returning Paulinho I have high hopes for when fit – expect him to start being nursed back this month after a long absence.
Leverkusen are down and in poor form. But they have lots of good players and an FI friendly style. Still in contention for Europe next season though they need to improve.
Things probably turn for them eventually and they can generate big scores when it does. Feels like an opportunity to pick up some good assets cheaply whilst they are down.
This is more like it from Bayern, a classic 5-1 victory after throwing their last 2 Bundesliga games.
Actually despite that crushing scoreline Bayern possession was subdued – 55% is quite low for them and it choked off the really big scores.
There will be relief for Gnabry who came on to score 2 goals in 27 minutes. Recent form has been very patchy. Holders can feel a bit unlucky that his explosion came on a day when he didn’t get the full match and could not make it count.
Yet, this was a great performance and it is a good sign that he is recapturing form after a poor season. At £1.09 to £1.31 the chance of a comeback story and price rebound here is strong.
Lewandowski also bagged 2 but could only manage 175 including the matchwinner. That can often be enough for him to be competitive but this was a particularly poor game in the underlying numbers for him. Passing accuracy particularly weak.
Better than this headline score indicates and he is another I would back for a recovery. Particularly if Bayern have a good CL run, Lewandowski could really clean up.
Goretzka was magnificent, laying on 3 assists. Had a decent chance of his own too. Fierce shot from the edge of the box, the keeper had to be strong to keep that out.
Yet 188 for all that is disappointing. He will benefit from more dominant Bayern displays and one of these shots finding the net won’t hurt either. Again, like the above two I consider him seriously undervalued if people really are taking that 48p bid or anything close.
Sulé earns another shoutout. Over 100 passes, created chances with 3 key passes and had a good long range pop himself. Looking strong for his 56p to 76p and really close to a win yesterday.
Musiala started again. Looked quite good and I like him as a longer hold he appeared in my wonderkids series prior to his breakout. As I said last review though I worry for players at this stage of the hype cycle. After that big price spike he then has a lot to do to keep interest and in the here and now he is not so strong that another win to maintain momentum is likely.
It might happen, he’s decent. But it is more likely that it does not come and I think the rational move is to be selling players like this when you get a big spike as we saw in the last week.
Nothing to stop us going back to them on a cheaper bid later once things settle.
Kimmich quiet recently and taking a small dip but not too bad. Remains well in contention and despite no goals or assists in 7 he is close.
For my taste, he is just too expensive despite this quality and once compared to other options this is not an optimal use of money. Yet, don’t be surprised if he wins soon either.
Sané had a decent game again. Really establishing now as I’ve covered recently. A strong contender for a value price and I like this.
Lots of value at Bayern for some really strong players here. Some traders seem down on them but there is no rational reason to be. The above players have some very favourable fixtures ahead.
Soft win for Kostic but not an undeserved one.
He’s in strong form with 8 assists and 2 goals in his previous 8 games. And Eintracht are on a great run with 2 out of the next 4 fixtures very favourable.
Kostic can work against himself (I once described him as having the passing accuracy of a clown being fired out of a cannon). But part of the reason for that is he tries things and people are definitely getting on the end of them.
He scored 181 here in a game Frankfurt actually lost. And whilst he had just 1 assist he had good chances himself. He can be a bit hit and miss but hold him over 10 games and there is a very good chance he will explode and he can hit 275-300.
Good value pick up at under £1.
André Silva also scored again and he continues to fly high in the Bundesliga top scorer chart, only behind Lewandowski. Showing the kind of threat where he can score 2+ and get himself in contention for dividends. And surely big clubs will come in for him on this evidence.
One of those “IPD strikers” that are so cheap right now because of hitting that negative news but there is more to him than that, he is a bargain.
Nice to see a win for Sancho – a popular winner is needed in the current climate whether we choose to hold or not.
And it is a deserved win that has been coming. He has sat on my Explosion Imminent list for a while and for good reason. Since December he has been excellent.
Last in depth review was on the 11th Feb where he was at £7, the same price as today after a dip and then recovery. I said:
“As Sancho dipped under £5 I got keen on this. As it climbed to £8.50 and now back to £7 – it’s looking more wobbly again. As I said in State of the Market, it was always likely premiums would dip a bit anyway at this point in the market cycle.
Yet Sancho can easily win next week and the move this Summer is certainly more likely than it was last.
I’ll call myself neutral right now, it could go either way. The deciding factor for me is that in this market there are so many slam dunk bargains that taking 50/50 gambles like this is just not needed.”
That win did come, in fact it could have come sooner he has been unlucky to miss out. Since then the price dropped. But is now the same as back then, and so is my current opinion – nothing has really changed.
Hopefully, this win tells readers nothing that they did not know already. We could see this coming and we do not want to be the person reacting to this when it happens. This is poor trading in my view.
Good traders are selling to those late buyers for a premium and I’ll think more about how this new dividend deadline is really changing the market on Tuesday in State of the Market.
We can expect further dividend challenges from Sancho. And if that happens we want to be mindful of other options on the table – there is so much value around at the moment and if optimal results are what we are after – they will not be found in Sancho.
These value spikes can be used by savvy traders for some smart profits but the traders who play this best will not get sucked into the hype. Don’t become a “fan” and know when to sell is my advice here.
Elsewhere veteran Hummels is looking threatening. Good chances to score and he has had good chances across the last 7 games in general. Big baselines so those goals can count.
Want to punt on a credible winner for under 50p? Here ya’ go.
Guerreiro superb again. A mater of time before another big score if he keeps doing his thing. Great value at the moment as it is a while since his strength registered on the scoreboard. But it has gone nowhere.
Dahoud not far behind Sancho here. He got the matchwinner making it 2 goals in 3. Unusual for him he has not scored in over 2 years prior to this! He gets some chances though and he is an occasional potential winner. Rotation is his main problem.
You can make a strong value case for him if picking up that 19p bid! Hold for a season and that big score should come and it could result in a nice profit. I can think of more immediate ways to spend cash though!
I’ve been keen on Bellingham recently. He’s improved, getting lots of minutes for his age, and the price is so low it makes patience worth it.
It might not need a lot of patience though. His 150 base score with no goal or assist is not a fluke – he’s a solid player. Then factor in that he had a golden chance to score… the path towards 250 is open to him and if that happens even once in the remainder of the season I would expect a good market reaction given his trend fit.
I did not expect him to do so well in his first season but with him over performing those expectations and no longer weighed down by that £4+ price I am very keen on this as a long term pickup.
A scouting debut for 23 year old wing back Borna Sosa at Stuttgart after his win yesterday!
Could/should a good analyst have picked this one out?
On the surface this double assist is clearly no accident – he has assisted 5 times in his previous 7 games! And that much is consistent – we can expect assists.
The rest of his numbers are bang average though. And we can expect Stuttgart to win every 3 games. So you’d have to bet that Stuttgart win AND that it combines with 2 assists or he gets a rare goal which might come 2-3 times in a good season.
It is a very long odds bet.
But then, it is not an expensive one, he could probably be picked up well under 30p.
I think a good analyst would notice the assists but probably drops this due to the number of things that have to go right to make it register overall. We want to be a bit careful of using good headline numbers like goals/assists on their own to make our calls. We need the overall package.
In this case the long odds bet came in, but it is unlikely to happen again soon. I would not be holding in expectation of wins.
The longer term reason why holding this might be sensible is if you believe the transfer rumours which are actually picking up and there are some big clubs being mentioned including Bayern.
Big win for Leipzig to keep the pressure on Bayern, snatching a 3-2 win over Gladbach in injury time.
There are some very big potential scores here that did not quite happen.
Olmo, who has been improving, put in another very convincing performance here. He is really heating up. 6 shots and he really should have scored, maybe even twice. 2 key passes. Generally strong involvement.
He came with high expectations and took a while to get going. He is closer to realising those expectations than ever and is a snip now at 52p to 72p. In this market traders are impatient and selling players like this far too cheaply – there is a decent chance he makes a comeback from here.
Sabitzer pulled off at halftime, perhaps cautionary as he was on a yellow. Nagelsmann will be glad he did as his replacement Sorloth got the matchwinner. He had a decent half though and Sabitzer can repeat his heroics of last weekend.
22 year old USA youth international Tyler Adams has also been creeping onto the Scouting radar. He has been getting decent minutes lately. Interesting performance here where he makes it over 100 passes, something of a benchmark.
He has occasional goals and asissts in the locker and they could count for big scores when they go in. Similar to a Brozovic. Could make for an interesting and rewarding punt if that 19p bid can be met.
Nkunku scored and assisted, mustering just 168 with no matchwinner. Not entirely surprising as he is a bit behind the midfield big hitters. Yet, he can have his big days when it all comes together a few times over a season. And for his 63p to 76p I would expect him to rise nicely with a win.
Kluivert had a flirt with some decent performance numbers in December. That has not continued. Yesterday was his first full game in a while and whilst he had a chance to score “bang average” is the only phrase I can think of to describe this set of numbers.
He has shown some potential at times but he needs to do more to convince it could be sustainable.
Back to winning ways for Juventus – another team that come out well on the new Fixture Ticker which is promising for their assets.
Chiesa yet again one of the best players on the park. Another goal although 151 a touch disappointing but we have to factor in he was subbed on 72 with the game wrapped up and it was not the matchwinner.
He also had enough chances to score 2, perhaps even 3.
He’s in range of wins. And this wasn’t even a particularly good game for him in baseline numbers.
Strong value at the £1 mark I’d rate him right now, expecting around 5-7 competitive totals per season. And he seems to be only getting better.
Huge threat from Ronaldo as expected. Just the 1 goal and he will generally need 2 or more. But he can do that. A lot rests on Juventus overturning that disappointing CL first leg vs Porto. They probably will. But Ronaldo benefits so much from a CL run for potential dividends of all forms that there is a lot riding on it for him.
Matchwinner for Morata, though it did not count much from the bench. A bit like Lukaku, Morata is an “IPD striker” that is very much not dead. His recent illness has held him back but he seems to be recovering.
Do not be surprised to see an explosion before the season is out and he is dirt cheap because of all that (overblown) negativity. Could be a really good shout for a CL Gold Night if Juventus can progress.
Also likely leads for Spain at Euro 2020. Is Spain’s leading striker entering Euro 2020 with a bid price as low as 30p? I would think not barring disaster like a major injury.
Classic example of an unpopular player that can easily double in price or more and yet very few will go for it until something obviously positive happens and then the best of it will be gone.
Well nobody can say Napoli are boring.
A 3-3 here. Insigne holders will have had potential joy then disappointment. He converted a 90th minute penalty which would have been the matchwinner.
Only for Napoli to concede an injury time penalty and level it up!
Insigne was furious and is now in hot water for making very loud negative comments about the quality of his team (to put it mildly).
Again, it’s another scenario where Insigne was close to winning and when palyers get this close this often… it is for a reason. Napoli have a favourable fixture this weekend versus Bologna so assuming he isn’t dropped for his bust up he should have another good opportunity there.
Gattuso may end up leaving as coach either at the end of the season or even sooner. The form is just too patchy and they are in the running for Europe next season but it is far from guaranteed.
Still, when Napoli win they are a force on FI and Insigne is the clear star.
Elsewhere this is another good game for Ruiz who has now shown strong threat in the last 3. Looking closer to wins than he has for a good while.
For 54p to 69p this is a good pickup – he could put up a couple of big scores before this season is done. And the likelihood of big transfer rumours is high.
The same is true of Zielinski – I’ve been highlighing his increasing threat and he has scored 3 goals in 4 now, including 1 yesterday.
Last time I spotted an improvement in December he very narrowly missed out on a win. Then he faded in January but looks very much back in contention now. Very cheap at 29p to 47p for a credible winner in a soft fixture this weekend.
Continued poor form for AC Milan. Just 1 win in 6.
Verona next is a chance to bounce back but then after that they have a tough schedule if we look at the Ticker.
Whilst on paper Manchester United vs AC Milan will be built up as a blockbuster… Manchester United are comfortable favourites given Milan’s current form and their difficulty overcoming weak opponents in the last round.
So, potential knockout disappointment is there.
Theo Hernandez has been holding up his end of the deal though. He remains strong and if Milan do turn things around he remains in contention. Whether you dodge in and out of this tough period ahead is a question of tactics but I should not think long term holders have much to stress about.
Hakan Calhanoglu has also endured a difficult spell with minor injuries and contract speculation no doubt a distraction. Again he remains a very strong FI player but it won’t come through if he isn’t on the pitch and Milan are not winning.
He may be out injured for the whole of March.
Contract news is more promising – the latest gossip is he will sign a renewal with Milan which is just fine. It might cut off potential EPL speculation but overall I would think holders will be happy for Hakan to stay just where he is where we know he is the main man and a strong performer.
With his price knocked down potentially to £1.19 to £1.58 I would say buying on the lower end of that bid is likely to lead to a good result 3-6 months down the line.
Hakan’s absence gives more opportunities to Brahim Diaz. He had a decent game yesterday and although he was subbed off on 65 minutes, he has good numbers per minute and with a full game he could put up a big score. Had one decent effort yesterday.
He has not had the explosive start hoped at Milan but he is not doing too bad and with a price as low as 26p now that is looking very tempting for those who back a comeback. He is still just 21. Gossip is AC Milan want to secure him on a permanent deal.
Another edition of the Ilicic show. He takes another Star Man.
I cover him regularly although he is not exactly one of the more obscure winners he has demonstrated his strength often enough by now.
Even by his standards though this was an exceptional performance. 259 and without the matchwinner putting him well in range of 300’s.
Probably the only reason we haven’t seen this more often is his struggles after COVID where he has had limited minutes this season. But give him a full game and he can do damage.
The fixture calendar is mixed. They have Inter next which is very tough but then Spezia which is very favourable, that is a great opportunity if he plays. Real Madrid after that is very difficult and results in a likely knockout. Then it gets kinder again.
This is important in this quite short termist market driven by the trial of the new dividend deadline (which I suspect will get extended because it is so popular right now).
I say right now because… well I feel like the guy at the party who isn’t dancing and just complaining that the music is too loud but seriously. This is another example of how the behaviour we have seen this week is not going to continue. And for anyone who can see how a Chess game will pan out more than 1 move ahead it is apparent why.
Again, a lot of the chasers here have likely been burned or are now holding a player they can only sell for less than they paid, wiping out the dividend or breaking even at best. They will stop doing it if they lose too much.
Probably, a winner like Sancho might do ok as long as they are popular. It’s still going to be optimal to sell them on the day of the win whether you want to keep them or not. But they might hold up ok a few days later and the chaser might feel like they are doing alright.
Something percieved as higher risk like Ilicic at 33? He’s going to really struggle to hold any gain and so the only thing you can rationally do is sell when he wins and skip on the dividend.
And if you want the player who is winning, particularly one like this with shaky popularity, buying as he is rising is pretty much as fiscally responsible as setting fire to your wallet. It is very likely you can just buy them cheaper the next day and will be better off, even without collecting the dividend.
To be a “good chaser” you’d have to one of the very first in just before the win was obviously coming. And you’d want to be selling to the bad chasers coming minutes behind too.
This is a dance that people will work out quite quickly. There is such a clear dominant move here.
A little justice for long suffering Eriksen holders. He’s had his share of bad luck. The balance was addressed a bit yesterday – you are fortunate to win a Gold Day in midfield with 197!
However, it is not luck that he was up there at all. This is all baseline and his are usually very strong.
FI suitability has never been his problem, he’s always been a contender at Inter given the chance. His problem has been minutes. And he is getting more of those than he ever has under Conte.
A good performance in general, there are no really obvious excuses for dropping him again here.
The real headline is that with regular goal threat and assist potential, a 197 is just the tip of his iceberg – he can reach 250 and even 300.
There is a reason I was keen on him as he started life at Inter, which is a year ago now. Conte threw a spanner in the works for sure but there is little doubt that if he retains his place Eriksen will be a regular challenger, at least and probably .
Lukaku was very close behind Bale yesterday with a goal and an assist .I’ve said it a few times recently but big strikers like this are not dead, despite what the current popular perception might be on “IPD strikers”.
Particularly ones like Lukaku who have Euro 2020 ahead and Europe next season almost certainly. Losing IPD was a blow, and the Europa knockout was a set back.
But good traders will have been taking advantage of that over negativity to get a good player on offensively cheap bids. And have been well rewarded for doing so already.
The same will probably come true of Lautaro Martinez as discussed in previous reviews.
Better from Napoli.
The matchwinner went to Mertens, a fairly poor performance player. So there was no major impact, but some of Napoli’s assets went close.
I barely need to mention Insigne by now. Monstrous numbers that just lacked the finish. And he was close. 3 efforts and the second in particular almost curled in at the far post. Wouldn’t have been the matchwinner most likely but it would have seen him over 200 again at least.
That’s two matches in a row now where Insigne has challenged strongly again. Pretty much whenever Napoli win, you can back Insigne to be in contention. Value pick up. That unexpected Europa knockout is a blow but not a terminal one, he has Euro 2020 as a little pick me up for the season end.
Ruiz was strong again here. I was a touch frustrated with him last time because on a rare matchwinner versus Granada his usually strong baseline evaporated. Had he got the matchwinner here it is a different story and he would have comfortably beaten Eriksen and likely ended up around 230 or so. Had 3 efforts on goal this time as well. Better.
It is more about the big transfer prospect for him but in the rest of this season if he were to put up at least one 250+ it would be more than a fair reward for his overall level this season.
Zielinski has also improved again. Regular readers will recall me highlighting him in December where he went on a good run. Unlucky to just miss out on a big dividend in early January.
But the rest of January was poor yet in the last 4 matches his threat has ticked up again. Would not surprise me to see him toppin a scoreboard again and he might be had for as little as 24p by now.
A lopsided game where the result went to Bologna but it was Lazio who dominated and could have put up strong scores.
The improvement in Savic is now plain to see and looking consistent. Regular threat now including yesterday. Big scores look on the way and that might be a good time for him to get himself back on the radar with another Summer of transfer speculation on the way. Value.
It is a wonder how Immobile didn’t score 2 or even 3. Poor penalty. On another day he is capable of smashing in 2-3 and getting himself into contention. Price could barely be lower now but I am convinced traders are undervaluing him strongly if he can be picked up at around 30-40p.
Alberto close too. Still being nursed back from illness but he looks a likely winner.
Some really strong value here especially with them all but knocked out of the CL. This is obviously predictable – teams getting knocked out get a downer on them. Yet, it makes little sense. Who expected them to beat Bayern!?
If you wanted to sell for that you do it when the draw is made. That extra little discount you can get by exploiting people who sell because of an expected CL knockout is worth taking on good players with good long term prospects.
This is an extended run of poor form now with just 1 win in the last 5 for Juventus.
They looked like bouncing back last week with that 3-0 win over Crotone. But they are lucky to come away with a 1-1 draw against Verona here.
Still have good fixtures ahead and could turn it around but these games are missed opportunities.
Chiesa comes out of yesterday with some credit. Fantastic assist. No doubt he is a key player for Juventus now and probably for seasons to come. Looking around right now. Let down by poor passing accuracy yesterday but overall I rate him.
A seriously undervalued player whose numbers merit more big scores than he has on his recent CV.
Kulusevski has had more minutes lately. It’s tough for him in the midfield category. Just doesn’t have the baseline to compete with the big hitters. He’d need more than just 1 matchwinner and that looks a tall order. Remains worth watching and the increased minutes is a positive in itself. But there are no signs of an explosion on the way.
Another Messi win. Shocker.
As I’ve covered many a time this season, in this chaotic period with all the speculation about him off the pitch, he is outperforming even his usual standards on the pitch. At least in FI terms.
I might need to add a 6th star to my 5 star rating system at this rate. So players are rated on a scale of 1 to Messi.
Ultimately this trade is a gamble on the transfer outcome which we can’t predict. A move to City is a goldmine. PSG… good but not great. Stay at Barcelona, acceptable but still likely gets a price drop. Shock move to Miami? Disaster yet unlikely.
Along the way holders can be assured of dividends but the closer it gets to decision time the more wary I would be.
Thing is, if the jackpot scenario of an EPL move materalises I would have no problem clicking buy even at £6-7. So overall I’d probably say watch this from the sidelines but it is a tricky call to which there is no real “right” answer.
Elsewhere, this was actually a new system with three centre backs – sort of a 3-1-4-2. And it seemed to work for them.
Dembelé was visibly relieved to break his goal drought, netting an excellent matchwinner. I’ve been very strong on him and so his 162 for that is a disappointment. What gives?
Interesting one as he was praised for an excellent performance but his underlying numbers, for FI at least, were an absolute shadow of what he can produce.
Versus Cadiz a week ago for example he had well over 100+ total actions yet under 50 here.
This was a tough away game vs Sevilla and Barcelona were not particularly dominant, so a lot of that is likely related. Dembelé can be expected to do better when he scores in easier games.
We’ll have to monitor the coming games to see whether this drop off is anything to do with this new system but I would suspect not – he isn’t being asked to do anything outrageously different.
It can be really frustrating when that goal does not line up with a players best days but I think overall holders can be happy with the goal and can stay confident unless we see continued weak underlying numbers in the games ahead.
Really though, for under £1 he isn’t under a great deal of pressure to be the best forward on FI, just good enough. The thing is – he actually could be one of the best forwards on FI.
Alba is now a wing back on paper which many may see as a good sign. He actually didn’t do too much different from usual. Which is a good thing because his usual is very strong.
He is unlucky not to have more big totals to his name this season.
Encouraging for Dest who was given more attacking freedom. He’s endured a difficult spell on and off FI. He got forward plenty here and managed 2 shots, hitting the post.
Solid stuff and whilst he’s had a rough time I don’t think he deserved to be knocked down from £1.50 to well under 50p so fast. That is more a comment on how short termist and panicy traders have been than anything else. Good value for a patient trader.
I am now a De Jong convert. Not exactly his best game and there were no obvious shots but his touches in the area are holding up and he is in the right places for things to drop to him. With the baselines to count. And crucially at a time when his price is lower than it has been for a long, long time.
Griezmann benched for this new system, a tactical choice as Koeman preferred the pace of Dembelé. So difficult to predict his fortunes – in January he was one of Barcelona’s brightest sparks yet he was poor against PSG on the big stage.
Still, I like the bet and mainly because he can win in so many different ways. The best possible outcome is probably a freeze out and a transfer, PSG being a dream where he could really dominate. So further benching make that look more likely. Also has Euro 2020 in the locker.
Settling at Barcelona isn’t a bad outcome either. And he is capable of winning again this season given a game his numbers are solid.
I’d take advantage of the negativity here if anything and see if anyone will take a really offensive bid under 50p.
Another appearance for youngster Moriba and he was brilliant to watch from the get go. He featured in my real wonderkids series at a nice time just before he started getting minutes. All youngsters are risks but he is well regarded at Barcelona and in FI terms he has real potential. Remember the name.
Barcelona players will have negativity as they are now likely to be dumped out of the CL. I would not worry too much about that – it happened already. Rather, take advantage of this to stock up on good players cheaply. And you never know, what if they pull off a (very) unlikely comeback? Pretty much not going to happen but it’s a free hit.
Absence from European competition has been a downer for Lyon but that is starting to become less of a problem.
As we head into the knockouts proper they are going to be far from the only team without European ties in the calendar. Before too long, only a select few will have that in their favour.
Lyon look very likely to qualify next season.
Depay had a good game yesterday and could have challenged. No goal but he had enough chances to get 2. Unlucky they were good efforts. Did manage an assist. Solid stuff and we should not be surprised if he appears near the top of the scoreboard soon. Favourable fixture up next.
Also he is a good hold in general because of Euro 2020 and the possibility of that combining with some very favourable transfer rumours around about the same time. £1.20 great value with that longer term prospect plus a good chance of a win or two along the way.
Aouar got the matchwinner but he came on from the bench so could not really make it count. He is being lightly used perhaps because he is also due out of the door in Summer.
But with a full game he is capable of a winning score, so a bit like Depay, holding this for a very likely transfer including to the EPL plus a possible win along the way seems a strong play when you can pick him up for just 64p to 81p. We are still in a place where the short sightedness of others makes it almost too easy sometimes.
Dubois is looking good these days, I picked him out for improving a few weeks back. On the surface he hasn’t had a shot for 5 games however his touches in the box are very strong and he is creating chances. Good value for his 57p to 74p as a longer term hold.
There are others I would consider more immediate targets but particularly with next season in mind when Lyon likely have a European campaign ahead I suspect he will be attractive.
Paqueta missing here with a red card ban. Overall though looking strong and a rejuvenated player at Lyon now as per recent scouting. Likely he gets better too particularly as big names from Lyon move on and he is leaned on more.
I’m not kidding about Ekambi either. Another good chance to score here. And he can string goals and assists together into a competitive total. A really strong value pick for 24p to 45p particularly with next season in mind but there is a decent chance he appears with a win in the remainder of this season too. Another “IPD striker” that people are just far, far too pessimistic on mainly because of laziness, ignorance or possibly both.
Gouiri strong again. 4 goals in 4 and 2 assists too.
It wasn’t the matchwinner or it might have been more obvious than his relatively modest 172 total. Could barely be doing more this season to attract big clubs with this record.
Nice unlikely to make Europe next year though and that could be good or bad. Good as it makes him leaving sooner more likely. Bad if he is stuck at Nice another season without European football.
Nice have won 2 on the spin which is better. The downer is that Nice have rough fixtures ahead if we look at the new Fixture Ticker.
Given the well under £1 price I’d consider him very strong value for a patient holder but short term results depend on him overcoming very mixed Nice form which is possible given his individual displays yet if Nice don’t win he almost certainly won’t either.
Worth a reminder on 24 year old winger/wing back Youcef Atal, often a name linked with bigger clubs come transfer windows. He has been very lightly used this season. Including yesterday where he was hooked off on 60 minutes. Yet per minute his numbers are competitive.
A savvy trader may want to pick him up when sentiment is smashed for just 36p to 54p – it would be fairly easy for a transfer link come Summer to push him back towards £1 for a hefty profit. And it wouldn’t be an outrage if he were to play a full game and return a big total, he did score last game.
Good result for high flying Lille. High flying in Ligue 1, anyway. They currently top the table. Yet that knockout to Ajax will put a dampener on them.
That however is more of a problem before the knockout. Once it has happened… that negativity probably makes the better players good value pickups.
The perhaps surprising winner here was Jonathan David with a respectable 230. His Scouting story is that I liked him pre-season due to excellent numbers in the Belgian league and the move to Lille who are a good club for developing talent. He was expected to be a key man for Lille. The price had also dropped in disappointment with him not coming to the EPL.
And yet, very early on in his numbers he looked poor and I changed my mind quickly.
Recently it improved for goal threat, but not so much for anything else.
This is still mainly true.
He scored 2 including the matchwinner plus racked up a good number of points for shots in general (he had 7 efforts!). That’s a lot and in fact he missed 2 big chances robbing him of 20 points. But you could look at that positively – it means a hatrick was possible.
If we look at the price action it is interesting – huge spike as people chase that dividend. But look at the sell price today – back to pretty much where he was. So again, chasers are probably losing on this or at least now stuck with a hold they might be questioning.
We have seen players like Bale hold on to a good chunk of the rise but by no means all of it. I am not sure it will be the same for less popular players.
As I said in SOTM this week – traders are watching this and learning. If you chased Jonathan David last night… you might regret that today as the sell price is far lower than most people’s quick buy. You might not be so quick to chase the next one.
I suspect FI will extend this trial as it will be popular but seriously – this needs watching over a longer period because behaviour will not be the same as it has been this week for too long.
People are being taught through experience that chasing is generally not giving them a good outcome even if they get a dividend in the morning. And once that happens those of us holding winners are going to find that we are not benefiting form a win quite as much as we have.
As for David from here… actually picking him up at 56p is not bad. He may require 2 goals for a win but the threat is quite good and if he keeps adding to his goal total he could start to regain some of his shine. That’s when the transfer rumours may come.
I would not hold my breath for further wins although they have Nimes on 20 March which looks promising for Lille assets in general.
David may have stole the show yesterday but the smart money will be on Renato Sanches. He is back now, and for these two games since his return from injury he has had good chances to score and retained his big baseline.
A capable winner at around and a likely target of transfer rumours including to the EPL. Euro 2020 for Portugal. 67p or thereabouts potentially. Not much to dislike here.
Better signs for Weah who is finally getting more and more minutes after a very slow start to the season. Threat is good. Overall numbers are pretty average, below what I expected. Similar level to Jonathan David actually.
Still, for a bargain bucket 18p to 36p it is very possible that he puts a few more goals away and increases in stature as a good young Lille player. I’d think at least 50p is very acheivable for a patient trader.
Monaco’s incredible run comes to an end versus Strasbourg. This is a rare defeat – we have to go back to mid December to find the last one!
It was a good FI performance, though. Monaco are looking really strong right now as per recent reviews. Mixed fixtures ahead. Lille next tough. After that St Etienne and Metz are favourable.
Golovin was suprisingly poor yesterday both to watch and in FI terms. However, his recent numbers overall bode very well for him. At the moment this can be put down to an off game, but holders will want to see him bounce back particularly in the St Etienne/Metz games on the way.
Badiashile did well enough and continues to get in the box for chances. Good goal threat for a CB. I won’t repeat my praise for him again but suffice to say he is no one hit wonder after his recent win.
Most interesting is the price action – less popular winners or less well known winners are not hanging onto their price rises – like I say – this is going to encourage fast selling of risers and will start teaching people to stop chasing winners as they have been doing this week. It might take most people that extra week or two to catch on but they will because it is just so obvious.
Tchouameni the other good youngster at Monaco. Another solid display he is very consistent. A bargain.
Badiashile does hold onto the win! In my email yesterday I thought he would be a bit lucky to do so with 217 on a Gold Day. (By the way, don’t forget to update email addresses via Members help > account – if not you can miss the notifications and some cover notes on the Scouting etc).
Badiashile is one I’ve covered in my recent wonderkids series and in Scouting. And his win is no fluke. Whilst he can win on baseline alone, as he did here, he has a smattering of goal and assist potential too which gives him a shot at some 250-275 scores a few times per season.
In October and January the goal threat was particularly strong. In recent games, not so much, not in shots or xG metrics anyway. But if you look he is frequently getting into the box and things can fall to him.
Great result if picking him up at the time of my wonderkids article for under 50p! There was an opportunity to sell much closer than £1, or to hold and collect a hefty dividend and a price rise to 66p to 89p as of time of writing.
I’d say at 66p or near that he remains very strong value (if anyone is selling believing he is a one hit wonder which some will be).
He can win more from Monaco and there is a reasonable chance he gets a transfer link that could see the price really pumping.
Monaco are just looking a great performance side in general as per my recent reviews. And it’s only getting better.
They are on a run of 11 wins and 2 draws in 13 games. Well in contention for Europe next season, with a comfortable cushion now.
And capable of more wins in the remainder of this season.
Golovin‘s per minute stats are almost unbelievable. He continues to be nursed back after injury, which is a little frustrating. But once he is back to full fitness we can expect more big scores.
After his hatrick explosion he has been quiet again, returning the price to £1.07 to £1.37. The lower end of that bid looks exceptional value.
This is one of those situations where you can buy him or not, there are many good options. But for the sake of my blood pressure, please do not wait for him to win again and then buy – this upsets me more than any other FI thought crime! 🙂
I have also highlighted another promising youngster – Tchouameni. He ain’t no joke. Another big baseline display yesterday and he was a whisker away from adding what would could have been the matchwinner, only a great reflex save denying him.
Had that gone in, you are more than likely looking at yesterday’s midfield winner for sure, matchwinner or not given it was a soft day in midfield.
So. If anyone would like a 21 year old current regular dividend contender from the Monaco talent factory for around 32p or slightly over… here you go.
Dominant PSG victory, 4-0 over Dijon which was needed after their flop last game.
Yet, the fates did not combine to generate competitive scores.
Mbappé bagged a brace, not hitting the matchwinner. With that he would have run Messi close, but not close enough. This topic has been done to death in my Scouting for a long time but suffice to say Mbappé just ain’t as good as people might hope or expect for FI purposes.
This may be unfair and you can see a world where a few scoring matrix tweaks improve him by that 20-30 points he often needs to get over the winning line.
But I am not one to make outrageous bets on that sort of thing. Certainly when I have better odds bets that work under the existing rules already.
Could happen, though. And Mbappé should benefit strongly if PSG can go on another CL run having taken a decisive advantage versus Barcelona. £4.46 to £4.74 can’t be called the best use of funds but it ain’t awful these days for a very long term holder.
Another goal, 4 in 5 now, for Moise Kean. Just a 151 and that’s with the matchwinner howevr he has the threat to explode with 2-3 and that can bag him wins. Another “IPD striker” that has been punished too harshly by that news and it makes him value. Same goes for Icardi though he misses this game through illness and maybe out a week or two.
Paredes, currently on my explosion imminent list, missed this game through suspension but will be back and is looking strong.
And what is this absurd 10p to 42p price for Abdou Diallo, 24 year old defender who is a regular at PSG now. Solid baselines that can win on soft days without goal or assist. Gets some occasional goal threat too. Chipped in with an assist yesterday but this is quite unusual. If anyone really sells that for 10p or even under 25p I’d take that all day long.
It might not be the most high profile pick but he can win a couple of times in a season and is it likely that one day you could sell that for 50-60p? I’d say there is a strong chance and that would be an enormous profit, eclipsing what you might get on more popular players. That could be like getting Sancho from £5 to £25 and yet almost nobody would notice. Crazy times on FI.
A win for Gouiri which given his performances this season is well deserved.
As I have reported here often, he has being unrewarded mainly due to poor Nice form.
In himself he has been running up some strong FI suitable numbers, plus scoring enough goals to get bigger clubs seriously interested. Nice look out of Europe for next season too so that may mean big clubs come-a-knocking sooner.
In the mean time he can get occasional wins when Nice get a result. This 164 from Friday is a soft win but it is worth noting that he did not get the matchwinner and this was actually one of his poorest games for some time in terms of overall numbers.
This reflects a game in which Nice were unusually starved of possession – on a good day like Friday with a goal and assist it is very possible for Gouiri to get much closer to 250.
With occasional wins and a chance of a transfer, I’ll stick to my line that patient traders are going to end up happy with this for well under £1.