Trends guide

Located on the Market section of the Dashboard is the “Trendometer”. 

This gives an at a glance reference to the trends that are currently having a significant effect on the market. It shows their current strength, as well as my judgement on whether they are rising or fading in the coming 2-3 months (it is very important to mentally note that time period). 

It is important to understand the details of how this works in order to use it effectively. 


What does it tell me?

The Trendometer helps members to put the players they are considering buying/selling into the context of the market. 

The ratings system is great at telling you who the current and future top performance players will be. But they do not tell you who is likely to rise or fall in the next few months. Some players can win a performance dividend but get very little recognition in the market. Others can come 2nd or 3rd on a match day and yet still see strong buying action. Trends are the reason why. Players need currently desirable attributes to get traction or hold their value. But what is desirable shifts all the time depending on current and upcoming events and the current mood. 

When I consider the trends, it is important to bear in mind that with the bar represents the CURRENT strength of the trend in the market. They are also labelled with Stable, Rising and Fading to suggest where I think the trend will be in roughly 2-3 months time. There is more explanation of this below. 

Trend Strength

This is represented by the size of the green or red bar, and labelled with a %. As examples:

A large green bar at 90% represents a very strong POSITIVE market trend that is pulling a price upwards. 

A large red bar at 90% represents a very strong NEGATIVE market trend that is dragging a price downwards. 

So, the larger or smaller the bar, the stronger or weaker the trend is.

Trend Direction

Each bar is labelled with either Stable, Rising, or Fading. 

When I set that label, it is important to mentally note that I am thinking of the coming 2-3 months ahead. 

A stable trend is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon. The hottest trend at the time of writing is very young players, and that is likely to continue for the time being so is marked as stable. 

At this time of year (February) people are starting to think about who might get transfer speculation in the Summer, but we are still some way away. It is therefore a relatively weak trend in the example at 40%. But, it is likely to heat up in the coming months, so it is marked as Rising.

A trend from a few months previous was buying of Premium Players ahead of a share split. That is still there, but weak and is marked Fading as people seem to be turning to the mid and low priced brackets instead.

I also include up to 3 directional arrows on the bar for each trend: >>> or <<<. This is an indicator of how strong I think the trend is likely to become. For example: 

Summer Transfers currently at 40% could be marked with “Rising >>>” indicating that I think this will be a very strong trend in 2-3 months time. 

If I marked it with just one arrow instead “Rising >” I would be suggesting that I think it will grow but it may not become a major factor in the coming 2-3 months.

How to use it

Once you have looked at the performance ratings and done some of your own research into the player, you can then use the Trendometer to see how well your player is likely to fit with the current market trends. 

If a player is strong in performance ratings and closely aligns with a major trend, or ideally, several trends, you have a strong indicator that if the player does succeed on the pitch, he is likely to be rewarded and rise in price in the market. 

Similarly, you may look at your existing players and compare them to the trends ahead. If they are off trend, or have a large negative or even multiple negative attributes you might expect a price decline. Or if they win a dividend, they may not see huge buying action as a result. 

However, it may not be quite that simple. Read on below. 

how NOT to use it

Having a good player that is on trend is not always enough to succeed. Every decision must always be put in context of PRICE

You can pay too much for good players. If you do, your odds of a successful trade are massively reduced because much of the value has already been taken by earlier buyers.

Therefore, by the time a trend is very strong on the Trendometer, it is likely that many of the best known players who match that trend are  over bought and their values will be overheating. For example, at time of writing, Kai Havertz and Joao Felix are two players that almost perfectly match the current trends, and therefore have very high prices. Chasing into them will no longer offer the best value.

However, this does not mean you have to ignore the hot trend. Instead, you may be able to use the performance ratings to find similar quality players who have some or all of the same on trend attributes but at far cheaper prices. If you can, your odds of a successful trade can be much higher because once the market realise the player is quality and on trend (perhaps because they win a dividend) you are likely to get a large price increase. 

You may also be better off targeting the currently weak but rising trends. In this way, you may be taking good positions that other people will follow in a couple of months as the trend heats up. 

Likewise, a player with many perceived negative traits will likely have a beat down price. If you believe that trend will change over time, buying the current off trend player cheaper may actually be the better trade. If you can find a player that has a high performance rating but has a knock down price because of a trend that you believe is temporary, you may get great value by deliberately buying off trend players. 

Negative trends can be used to profit just as much as Positive ones. 

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