Welcome to Scouting! The most popular page on FIT!
To give you an idea of why hundreds of FI traders use my Scouting every week, here is a snapshot of my player scouting exactly as it was at the end of October 2020.
Just click on any team or player to open the drop down and see my observations after each game.
FI veterans in particular tell me Scouting is really helpful as very few people have the time to review every game themselves.
This sample gives you an idea of the level of detail you can expect. Scouting is updated throughout each week and includes every match day.
You can also see my Explosion Imminent list – players I consider to be very close to producing big FI scores based on recent form.
Please note – these are my views frozen in time from October 2020 – a players ability level, price and circumstances can change often so my analysis has likely moved on too. The latest Scouting is only available in the real members area.
1 November
Dominant display for Dortmund – the only real issue is the goals fell to a player few will have backed – Hummels.
Brandt, Sancho, Reus, Thorgan, and even Bellingham had a raft of chances on a day where a goal could have generated big scores but nothing found the net for them.
Good day out for Brandt and another start, playing the full game. Had really good chances, decent involvement, created plenty that wasn’t finished.
Remains a contender on the pitch and I think this £1.14 bid is going to look absurdly low at some stage.
Whether that’s because he establishes at Dortmund again fully or transfers somewhere else – his career would have to take a disastrous turn for him to be priced this low for long.
Similar story too for Thorgan who made his first start back. He’s a touch lightweight in midfield but he can hit some really nice patches of form for goals and assists, and can win occasionally.
Of course he’s having a tough time and has to get back into the side regularly but he’s just 97p now. A cut price for a capable Dortmund player.
Another good game for Sancho too. Definitely improving as per recent scouting and that continues here.
Getting himself into contention – so if anyone wanted to back him for a comeback now would be the time. Especially with soft CL fixtures coming up against Brugge.
And the price has dropped back to £8.78 on a bid potentially. It’s getting more tempting and nowhere near the car crash it was at £15. But you are very beholden to how any transfer rumour pans out.
Plus as discussed midweek the market seems reluctant to chase hype at the moment. But if he pulls of a second win after winning recently? Maybe. It’s a good moment to go for him if you are going to in my view.
I personally see better value with less risk elsewhere but this is no longer madness given the improving form and declining price. Plus the transfer window is some way off and it’s unlikely any concrete decision gets made until closer to Summer.
Bit of rotation for Guerreeiro. Guerriro. Guerreiro. Got it. (it’s been nearly 3 years and I still can’t spell it without looking it up) only coming on for the final 20 – but he could have scored twice. Looking very dangerous.
Huge threat for Silva at Eintracht. A whopping 8 attempts. Just the 1 goal but this is brace or hatrick form.
He pretty much looks like scoring every game in the last 10 and most of the time he has.
Still just 76p and I might go so far as to say if we aren’t just abusing this and recycling him for IPD dividends we are doing FI wrong.
I’m half joking because there are no essential picks – and many different IPD options available who are just as good. But I’m only half joking.
It’s just too easy and I wonder how long IPD striker prices can really stay this low.
If a more confident market returns value like this should just be hoovered up.
Kimmich narrowly misses out for what would have been yet another win. It’s probably about time the luck went the other way.
And it will. But in many ways I don’t really believe in luck so much as a player being good enough to get himself in the mix consistently.
Kimmich is doing that and his numbers are extremely consistent. He makes his own luck.
I still think it’s getting a little overheated and that hot streak has generated a little bit too much optiimism. But there are kind fixtures to come so hanging in longer is not a bad call.
As per recent reviews it’s likely other Bayern assets get their days in the sun. Muller and Gnabry both on the scoresheet here.
This is becoming an odd day of Scouting though where lots of big names are performing but not really generating big scores we might expect. Gnabry. Werner. Ziyech. Often it’s niggling fouls, goals conceded dragging scores back.
To be fair Gnabry does tend to need more than 1 goal to put up a serious challenge. Fortunately he can deliver that reliably and frequently.
Muller was close too but gave the ball away a lot which really punished his score. Cheap – and his big days are very likely.
27 October
Good game for Alario with a brace. Narrowly missing out to Son though.
He isn’t a player I usually cover primarily because he’s a bit soft for FI scoring and at 28 he’s unlikely to excite many even if he does well.
Still… he’s hitting great form with 4 goals in 3. Starting regularly. A very consistent goal scorer generally. And just 49p to 57p on a bid. Looks an easy target for some budget IPD trading.
The more exciting 21 year old Diaby unfortunately did not get the matchwinner but if that had fallen to him then he beats Son last night.
I’ve liked Diaby recently since the price drop and his shift to Forward – £1.37 is value and he has a good chance of challenging again before too long.
Another site favourite Tapsoba won again though – I’ve mentioned a few times recently including last week how he can win it especially on soft days, here it is.
No reason he can’t keep chipping away and he has a great profile for picking up big club transfer links later on too.
Amiri wasn’t far away from a win either. Just a few points in it and he didn’t even score just assisted. Last week I said I liked him for a patient trader and he could be an occasional winner. Not this time, but he was close and he can add the occasional goal that can see him close to 250 on a good day.
Plus given he is a generally well regarded player just on the fringe of the Germany squad it’s reason for quiet optimism for a transfer.
Palacios starts. Very encouraging numbers as I expect. High baseline per minute (he was subbed on 64 mins). And he had a good chance to add a goal which… well. If you see the finish you’d wince it was not good. But he was in the right place. (Do you still call it a finish if it actually goes out for a throw in?)
Very capable of putting up a big score given a full match.
26 October
Arnold showed up with a big score to take Star Man – not an unfamiliar thing to some of the veteran traders.
If we back up to 27 May Scouting after his last big score I said this on the best way to trade these occasional winners:
But you have to buy them when it is quiet and nobody wants them – not after the win – because it will likely be a good long while before we hear about Arnold again.
Indeed – it has been months since we heard from him. But that big score was probably always coming – he just needs a lot of things to go his way. In all likelihood it will happen again but not for weeks or months.
It makes literally no sense to buy him now after that win. He’ll have been available for pennies in the last few months. That is when any savvy traders playing this patient strategy will have picked him up. And they probably sold yesterday or at least this morning.
Most likely, he’ll go missing for a while, drop in price, and that cycle can be repeated again.
It’s worth remembering for those occasional winners or out of fashion players we have in the portfolio. If we are patient that great opportunity to sell may present itself provided they have a bit of quality.
Robert Skov put in a big performance this weekend in a 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen.
Very high levels of involvement to pump those baselines. Also had 6 shots, some speculative but good chances in there. And he laid on chances for team mates too.
Easily in range of wins and when Hoffenheim have 3 spicy Europa ties in the next month we should be considering Hoffenheim assets. We should consider this a warning that Skov may be due a decent score or two.
He’s also value at anything near a £1 bid – and he’s just 24 and a well regarded player who may get a bigger move later on. A win could see him pumping nicely.
Kramaric still has covid, is expected back soon though and he’d be another strong contender for these Europa nights.
25 October
This team are just crushing it at the moment and are providing strong challengers for wins seemingly every game they play.
Kimmich did win – again. Not a surprise because of his sheer consistency as discussed many times recently.
What’s interesting here is the “clustering” effect I’ve spoken about in recent State of the Market articles.
Worth an extended discussion because it highlights what to think about when we have sustained success with one player.
No doubt Kimmich is a strong player but he’s also had the rub of the green lately – another explosion imminent resident Alberto would have won this comfortably if not for a 91st minute goal conceded which robbed him of the matchwinner.
In this case the clustering is justified – we’re seeing a strong player consistently win and when that happens people are happy to pile in and raise the blue button price. Possibly too happy.
At this point we have to consider whether the price is overheating. He’ll keep winning surely but probably not with this regularity.
And when I was first calling him value after the dividend increase here he was well under £6 and even at £5 and under not long ago.
Creeping over £7 now which if we look at my True Value assessment on the dashboard – that’s the upper end rational price we want to be paying to expect really strong returns from a purely performance based player.
So if basing decisions purely on the rational price you’d be selling now if seeking optimal returns – there are undoubtedly targets available with a better chance of earning more in capital appreciation and more dividends for the money.
However. We also want to consider “Market Value”. Currently people are happy to cluster in “safe” picks like this. And Bayern have an exceptional run of fixtures to come. Traders are going to be very optimistic on Bayern assets in the build up to Lokomotiv and Salzburg in the CL, and that’s all coming inside 10 days with minnow Koln sandwiched in the middle.
So I would probably keep holding for that run – but in the back of my mind just be aware that this price is starting to overheat a bit. It may be that a cash out to redistribute the money to something with greater chance of capital appreciation is the smart move before long.
And it is likely that Kimmich’s luck will balance out eventually – if he has a quiet spell and drops you can always go back to him later.
A real danger with these “cult” players is that on social media you see people arguing about it – they are either a Kimmich “fan” or they seem to hate him. This is never helpful. It’s about picking and choosing your moments. We don’t want to start supporting players like they are our football team.
Elsewhere Lewandowki was denied late by Neymar. This is ok – winning is really hard and all we can really ask of our players is to keep getting themselves in contention – the rest is often down to luck.
Plus it’s not all for nothing. Consistent big scores raise the price and prestige of the player. It delivers IPD. And it counts towards Team of the Month.
One factor here is that he was subbed off after the hatrick. This is something we are going to see very regularly in a packed season with matches every 3-4 days. And it will impact almost every player at some point.
If we see a player being subbed off absolutely every game we can factor it in. It may be that they are good enough to win whilst playing 70 minutes and this is true of many good players. If they are borderline anyway it may tip us into not going for them.
But I see quite a bit of second guessing at the moment with comments like “I can’t buy him he’s been subbed too much”.
Well, yeah. But this is going to happen to just about every attacking player this season as they get rested. If we try too hard to dodge this we’ll be dodging the majority of quality players at big clubs.
We’ve been seeing this kind of uncertainty all year and it has in no way stopped us picking winners. It is changing who wins on particular days but overall the quality is shining through.
We may lose out some days because our player was subbed. But we’re going to win on others because a rival player was subbed leaving it clear for us too.
I would not overly stress about this issue. It is however a significant positive for EPL players who are the only league to not use 5 subs. We may see more EPL winners this year as a result and that will be something to look out for.
Elsewhere Goretzka looked particularly strong here. As did Muller. Neuer continues to demonstrate why I called him the best keeper around.
Sané actually quite poor in his numbers overall despite the lovely goal. I continue to be sceptical for the price – sloppy passing lets him down which is an old problem from his City days.
Goal from youngster Musiala who is not on FI yet. Could be a promising player if he’s a forward. Probably a midfielder though and he may struggle a little there. One to look out for at IPO price depending.
Davies injured. Looked bad but no formal update yet. Good for Hernandez potentially who I mentioned is coming on the radar in the CL review this week. He’s value and could win.
Overall I’d say don’t just focus on Lewandowski and Kimmich at Bayern – others are likely to come through given time including Gnabry who has been sidelined with covid.
Nkunku’s best game for some time. Unlucky not to score. I noted in scouting last week – he’s come close a few times but just lacked the finish.
He was really poor in midweek in the CL so there is a consistency issue. But in the league he is looking good, particularly here.
Now that the hype has faded £1.84 is somewhere close to sensible. With the price down and his numbers improving I’d call this a good pick by now.
This is where we can sensibly use that “previous peak” to our advantage. If he does pull off a win soon it will be very easy for people to make that link of “oh he’s so cheap look he used to be £3.33!!”.
Actually that price fall was well justified. But… that’s in the past and whilst £1.84 isn’t cheap a big score is possible and if that happened it would be easy to see him pumping again.
Angelino remains on my explosion imminent list. No goal here but again he’s a threat. Head and shoulders above the vast majority of defenders and further big scores seem more a matter of when not if.
Upamecano is dangerous too, getting on the scoresheet. He’s a player I like for his generally strong baselines and transfer potential.
But what I should have pointed out but didn’t is that in the two previous games he’s been getting chances. So it was possible to see this goal coming.
Unfortunately that goal has not lined up with his best game but when it does he can produce some monster scores. And he could win on soft days without a goal. Plus he’s got that transfer prospect. Remains a solid pick all round.
Sabitzer is back from injury. Scored the penalty. Shouldn’t be underestimated. He’s one of those players who has been pumped hard in the past on social media and became very overpriced.
He was up near £3 a year ago which was a bigger price back then. But the hype died and the price crashed. Oh and dividends got doubled too.
So at £1.88-£2.01 now he is definitely value and a capable winner now he is back. Likely picks up a transfer rumour towards Summer and will be at the Euro’s with Austria too.
Lots of reasons why he’s good pick up. And again that “previous peak” will coax traders back to him psychologically.
A switch to a back 4 and it resulted in a much more dominant Dortmund performance. Encouraging.
They dominated this game and it really told in the FI scoring.
Akanji came through to win the defender category – but only really by virtue of the matchwinner which is pretty lucky given he very rarely gets an effort on goal at all. I would not really expect this to be repeated anytime soon.
Guerreiro on the other hand was really close behind with just the assist and he regularly gets chances to add goals, including in this game. Another of those rare defenders that are just so far ahead of others it’s barely a fair contest.
Only Akanji’s matchwinner deprived him and that could have been a full house for my Explosion Imminent list. As per the CL review this week – we’ll see more big scores regularly unless something major changes. Even the switch to a back 4 only really helped him.
Better from Sancho. No threat but he did provide an assist. As much as big performance scores holders also need something close to his goal/assist tally from last season to materialise or his shine may start to wear off.
It’s been a very slow start but the last two games have been better.
Definitely possible that transfer hype comes around again to pump the price but as I said last week – I’d be very wary about anyone calling him a “sure thing”. This has to be watched very closely and nobody should be lazily assuming it will work out exactly as it did last season. A continued dip in form or the wrong transfer link could scupper things.
Better for Brandt holders. He started and had a really good game, dictating the play and making 4 key passes which unfortunately went unfinished by team mates.
Much better and there is a reason why he I have optimism for him despite his pitch time difficulties.
The criticism is we did not see him get any chances himself although he had plenty of touches in the area so this is not too worrying. It’s not like he is too deep to ever be a threat he’s in the mixer.
Long suffering holders can feel a bit more optimistic and if not holding it might be getting time to punt on him for this bargain price – particularly if he can show consistency in the next game too.
Haaland scored again but it counts for little. Surely even casual observers have worked this out by now. Price has slipped a bit and I’d be amazed if it stayed this high unless we see a very strong transfer link appear in the next month or two.
It’s hard to judge whether his pumpers really believe what they are saying or not. Either way they are taking one hell of a gamble on that transfer link coming. This is the sort of behaviour you used to be able to get away with on FI at least in the short term.
But in Matching Engine world hanging out so far ahead of rational value for too long is going to start hurting more and more.
18 October
Angelino scored again, second game running. Getting him decent scores at 223 and 181 in the last two but neither quite enough to win.
Neither have been his best overall games and he is capable of more.
Overall I’d be happy he is looking consistently dangerous and for the money at £1.49 to £1.64 I think he is value. Should be a consistent challenger and he’s well capable of blasting up to 230-250. And in defence 220’s can go a long way too.
Also at the back Upamecano displayed big baselines and is actually very close to scoring. He was a whisker away from adding a goal – his effort cleared desperately off the line. A few more centimetres and we’d be looking at our runaway gold day defender winner yesterday.
I like this trade because you can get occasional wins here and even if you don’t – those big transfer rumours are likely to come back around again as another reason to hold.
It’s rare I kick off a review with defenders but these two were good standouts.
More further forward Olmo was, again, the best of it. He’s settling really well and the big score coming looks a matter of time.
2 assists here. Had a decent chance of his own. Looked good for Spain too midweek as per the review over in the Euro 2021 section. Plenty to like for £1.86 to £2.
Nkunku was close to scoring and he’s just about good enough to challenge on a good day, maybe 3-4 big scores a season.
He was one of my “real wonderkids” a long time ago when he was cheap but I was very swift to point out that north of £3 was borderline crazy.
£1.76 though he’s back in a sensible price range.
I’m keen to see more of Hwang Hee-Chan. Just a 15 minute cameo but he had a chance in that time. He looks a danger and historically at Salzburg his goals and assists record is strong.
Because his pitch time is limited so far you can’t even sell him right now so if you could pick him up on a sub £1 bid that would make a great punt in my view.
Reus had to come off the bench to win it for Dortmund. They controlled the game but lacked a cutting edge.
Reus changed that and I’ve said in recent reviews not to underestimate the impact he can make. He’s working his way back from injury but we should see more starts.
He is a very capable performance winner that at 88p to £1 is being seriously underestimated.
Sancho was considered to have a poor game and yeah… his FI relevant numbers match that. Wasteful in possession and little threat.
But match reports forgive him because he hasn’t played much recently and I can go along with that explanation for now.
Holders need to keep an eye on this though. There is an assumption that he’ll get the big move and nothing can go wrong and this might prove true but if he were to have a poor season those lazy assumptions may get tested.
This is part and parcel of the risk of holding highly priced players and whilst I think he probably does fine from here after the price drop – I’d advise holders to watch closely and not just assume everything will happen exactly like it did last year.
Brandt’s use as a number 9 in place of Haaland was… strange. Really not a good position for him at all. Certainly not for FI. To watch he played some nice passes but as the main threat? That’s not him.
It feels like they are trying too hard to shoehorn him in. Potentially he can be a big FI force but he needs his more natural role. For Germany in midweek vs Turkey he put up lovely numbers in an advanced midfield role where he always does best.
You have to wonder at this point whether he will even stay at Dortmund which is odd given he was a marquee signing really not that long ago. Will remain of interest because at 24 he’s approaching his prime and if he continues to struggle at Dortmund I would be surprised if another big club didn’t want him.
I think the bid price now at £1.39 is a very poor price to accept if thinking of moving him on and it may be better just to tough this out. Given the right playing position he could turn up and win seemingly from nowhere and if not he probably gets a decent transfer link later.
I was pleased to see Tapsoba win yesterday. he’s a youngster I’ve picked out as a capable winner ever since IPO.
Instead of just gunning into him at a stupidly high IPO price though I said it would be better to wait and let that hype die a bit. That worked out well and he was available much cheaper later on.
Not much longer though because he’s starting to get onto people’s radars as a genuine quality player at £1.64 to £1.74 now.
I think he’s worth that. Centre backs may be relatively unexciting but the really good ones who can put up superb baselines can nick it on days where no defender runs away with it with a match winner.
That can be on a gold day if lucky like here. Or it is more likely to be on a bronze or silver day. And unlike last season – bronze/silver payouts are no joke after dividends were doubled.
When you also have a decent chance of transfer hype, like with Upamecano too, it makes a decent package.
And that is likely because it so happens that the high baseline centreback with great passing skills is also very fashionable at top clubs right now.
Leon Bailey got a start and played well – good news for holders because he is a capable winner that has mainly been held back by a lack of consistent minutes more than his ability.
He chipped in with an assist from a corner and baseline numbers are very tidy. His key advantage is that he’s classified as a forward yet gets well involved from the wings – a real cut above many out and out strikers.
And yet – Bailey holders will be familiar with a lot of stop/start frustration and we may see more of that. £1.09 to £1.40 is value though and if we see him getting a run of games I’d back him to do well. And potentially get a good transfer later.
Diaby has no such pitch time struggles though and now he has switched to forward he’s looking very strong.
He seems out of form with no goals in his last 9 appearances now but he is getting chances. Would be very surprising if this barren run lasted too much longer.
And he has the baseline numbers to make those goals count.
Much cheaper now at £1.35 to £1.61 and down from a £2.43 peak AND reclassified to forward where has a much greater chance of winning?
So many factors running in his favour there and I like him a lot.
We’re also seeing some rotation for 21 year old Palacios, another very capable potential winner that I consider value.
I think particularly in the chock a block season to come we are going to have to learn to accept some rotation so I’m not over concerned about that provided the numbers hold up and they are starting enough games to warrant the money.
The higher the price – the more we need them to play. In that £1-2 range I won’t stress too much if they miss a few starts here and there.
Regulars will know I always talk about our “Bayern problem”. We know they are going to win but pinning down exactly which of them it will be is hard.
This may be the most extreme example as I never thought I’d see 31 year old Muller win it by virtue of being the younger player! Lewandowski is 32.
Or so it seemed at the time. Actually, checking this morning apparently Muller got an overnight adjustment of +1 point so did actually win outright.
But really, does this show Muller was better yesterday? Not at all – this is just the element of pretty much pure luck when we are dealing with margins that fine.
We can’t control that we just need to make sure we are picking players that challenge frequently and over a season we’ll come out of that well.
Both of them can. I’ve said many times this year not to underestimate Muller – he’s capable of repeating this win multiple times before the season is out.
As is Lewandowski. One particular benefit to this packed season schedule is that we are getting more bang for our buck in that 30 day IPD window.
For my really big scorers/assisters I’m pulling off a few tactical refreshes when I can at the moment and it’s really paying… well dividends literally.
I refreshed Lewandowski by Offering my shares and then bidding for them back easily yesterday for a minimal cost that’s pretty much cancelled out already by yesterday’s IPD haul.
And now I have a window of 6 more games in which any goals Lewandowski scores are just pure profit.
7 games in an IPD window. Often it could just be 4-5 tops in a normal season.
The IPD promotion may be gone but they are still doubled compared to last season and we will generally be getting more games in the window too.
Think of all these easy and very obvious IPD picks like Lewandowski, Immobile, Yedder, maybe Morata. There is going to be massive returns available for some fairly basic trading around that for someone who has a little time for some active trading.
The one negative on my review in what is otherwise a love note to Bayern is Tolisso’s red card.
I have a lot of optimism for Tolisso when playing the full 90 – he’s potentially excellent. He got his chance here and put in an impressive performance which will now entirely be remembered for a sending off.
These performance numbers are superb though and it’s why I like him.
But it’s a straight red so that gets him a ban.
His manager may forgive him because this was a pretty “good” red. He was forced into chopping someone down to prevent a near certain goal scoring opportunity – covering for Martinez’s awful backpass. But at 4-1 up did he really need to sacrifice himself?
The big takeaway is that he started and put up the numbers that show why I have confidence in him. But the red card puts his comeback on ice for now.
5 October
Lewandowski.
I don’t really know what to say I haven’t said in Scouting a dozen times this year already.
He’s going to do this sort of thing very frequently throughout the season we always knew that.
The test for a trader here isn’t knowing whether he is good – it’s having the courage to take what we know and actually use it.
What can keep people out of this trade is that fear of age “rule”. Age is a legitimate factor but it’s just one factor and by avoiding veterans altogether we leave money on the floor.
Many of the best profits are available at the veteran end and this is far from the first example already this season.
Why? Because they tend to be cheaper than younger players because of people’s fear of age. And they tend to be better at the same time – these are players at 28-32 in their prime age for output.
We should factor in age. But don’t let it become a lazy rule that us to great value. Especially when the veteran has a huge contract ahead like Lewandowski does.
Elsewhere… Gnabry looked very strong too and how he did not score is a wonder. Big threat. Added an assist too. Consistently excellent and the bid is criminally low right now. If you can really get Gnabry for the current £3.39 bid it’s… incredible.
Davies was pushed up to the wing, possibly to cover Sané’s absence. That’s probably what happened and we can expect him to revert to left back.
That’s probably a good thing for holders. He’s average as a defender – he’s worse than that as a winger where if he’d have to compete in midfield he’d really struggle. As a forward? Probably similar chances to his prospects in defence at left back. Which is to say – ok – but nothing that warrants the hyped up price tag.
Interestingly 20 year old Chris Richards was given a run out, I recall covering him recently in one preview or another as a player I’m optimistic on. We saw him at Right Back here and he played very well indeed. Great numbers per minute and chipped in with a great assist.
Pavard should remain the main man but it’s going to be a busy season and squads will be called on. For 63p to 83p I think he looks a great bargain for a long term trader who wants to hoover up talented youth early. Will need patience but – this is how youth trades should be.
Some decent performance friendly stuff coming from Gladbach.
Plea is back on the score sheet for the first time this season – with his threat and his record that was inevitable. We should see more goals – and that’s not all – he is in range of an occasional win too.
He’s also frequently linked with moves to bigger clubs. He’s a player entering his prime at 27 and his 85p to £1.09 price is a steal for IPD, occasional wins, and a future transfer.
Jonas Hofmann is also an appealling budget option. I liked him in the pre-season preview. A couple of assists here but he could have added a goal.
With 3 goals and 4 assists in the last 3 (including one Cup game) he’s great IPD value and also in range of a win on a good day. 64p to 89p is a slam dunk bargain.
Marcus Thuram… looks someway off the pace when it comes to wins and the price is taking a hammering. Actually no bid price as it stands.
There is no way I’d have paid £2+ but if you can get him on a cheap bid in this market turmoil… you could call this a bargain at £1.40-£1.50. He’s more one for a future big transfer link than real hope for a big win… but he does get links to big clubs most windows.
Neuhaus. Looks good. One of these players like Pasalic yesterday who can be forgotten but are always capable of showing up on a Gold Day and putting up a competitive score.
Undeniable value at under £1 for a 23 year old well regarded Germany squad player who is expected to get a big move if he continues his progress.
25 year old Algerian Full Back Bensebaini is a dark horse for a couple of dividend wins. He started gaining traction in 2020 and for the right reasons.
He is a capable winner. Not just because he has a share of penalties – he has open play goal threat too.
Good for patient hipsters who like something a little different – a 60p bid or anything up to 75p or so would be great value for a player that could pop up leading the scoring on a match day.
A dry start for the season for Leverkusen – 3 draws. However, those disappointing results mask some promising performance numbers.
And, they were probably unlucky not to beat Stuttgart at the weekend – Leverkusen were clearly the better side.
Diaby in particular looks unlucky not to score this season – very strong threat and if we don’t see goals soon it will be surprising.
As a forward now too he has a shot at winning – looks a great pick now and as per the pre-season preview his transition to forward and that price drop brings him well back into value range. I was not keen when he was at peak hype but I am now.
Demirbay continues to look good. Should post a few big scores over a season. One of those that can go quiet but then if you see them leading performance scoring on a match day nobody paying attention should be surprised.
New signing Schick is meeting expectations – strong goal threat but that’s about it. He added a goal here for his first in a competitive match.
For under £1 the IPD returns are going to be strong… I’m not sure I’d expect much more than that though. Value.
Paulinho is probably the highest potential player – continues to be sidelined with the expected comeback around February.
At £1.12 to £1.48… that’s great and injury buys provided you time them right can be the easiest money that can be made – he is likely to get a bump just for returning to the field. And in this case – he can actually more than justify his price tag I rate him very highly.
Leon Bailey is another strong player who has stayed under the radar mainly due to rotation. If we don’t see him move today… he’s a good bet for the under £1.50 price tag. Should get his chances and he can put up big scores on his day. And likely to get a decent move at some stage. I wouldn’t rush to this one at this stage though.
4 October
Ruthless from Dortmund with a 4-0 win – unfortunately the goals mainly fell to the players who couldn’t make the most of them for FI scoring.
Haaland won’t be a surprise there to Scouting readers – he made a huge contribution to the game netting 2 goals including the matchwinner plus an assist. For all that? Just 197.
If you can’t even breach 200 on a day like that… it’s just abysmal. It would be shocking except I’ve been saying this is the case since Haaland first arrived at Dortmund.
He is a wonderful player but a truly tragic performance player. Whilst the hype lasts nobody seems to mind – but this will matter in the end.
Worse, the fact that he is so effective in reality means it is unlikely to ever change – the chances of a coach reworking his game are so remote as to not be worth betting on.
This price slide is unlikely to get any better – the only real hope is hitting an EPL transfer link by next Summer.
Bellingham keeps on starting and that is impressive in itself. I am considering changing my mind on him.
The main problem is that in the more serious games he isn’t getting forward much – so it makes it difficult for him to add goals to these otherwise impressive stats. In very soft pre-season friendlies his goal threat looked very impressive – but I always felt this could be false hope.
So far, that is proving to be the case.
And despite the starts… he is at a high price to start with. I’m still not totally sold but he’s definitely done better than I thought he would.
Holders just want to be careful because a run of games whilst producing nothing could hurt his price. Nothing kills hype like consistent starts for no return.
Reus back now – looking solid and remains a bargain with a strong chance of consistent challenges over the season.
Reyna superb in this game – really making his mark on this team and for one so young it’s impressive. Isn’t on FI – I suspect if he was we’d have seen a solid score here with 3 assists – but not a winning one.
He does look a genuine FI prospect – getting him at IPO for any kind of reasonable price will be the hard bit.
We’ll have to see how the new bidding system works for IPO. £2 would be great. £3 decent. £4+? I wouldn’t call it awful value there but with so much clear cut value available elsewhere… I wouldn’t want to pay more than £3.
Brandt continues to start from the bench which is surprising. He played well for his 20 minutes though… close to both scoring and assisting.
Reyna and Bellingham’s emergence is causing him problems. But with a packed fixture schedule he almost certainly gets his chances.
Difficult – he can win but not if he isn’t starting. This £1.38 bid though? Come on. Far too low.
Can bagged a goal – and a decent score too which just got overshadowed by bigger ones on the day.
I’ve noted his better than usual threat at CB before. And he can come into midfield where he is even better.
Not a sexy pick but if we do not see a big win from him this season it will be a surprise to me. And the returns from that one win can eclipse many more popular picks. Good for the patient trader.
Angelino close to a win although wasn’t getting near Chilwell’s massive total.
A strong player who should be up there consistently, as per the previews.
he’s playing more and more forward and looks much more winger than defender.
He’s got a clear advantage over other defenders and the price remains kind.
Olmo could easily have scored here with 5 efforts, just couldn’t find a way through the bodies with a lot of them. Unlucky.
Still looking solid for the money – he really should have at least 1 goal by now with the chances he gets. Goals should come.
28 September
5 goals in 5 for André Silva at Frankfurt, plus an assist. That includes 1 for Portugal, 1 in the cup, and 1 in a preseason friendly versus Ajax.
So just two of those have appeared in the league.
At the moment, his threat is so high he looks like scoring every single game. That’s something we rarely see outside of the likes of Lewandowski or Immobile.
His price is still just 80p to £1.08 and in theory this should not be happening. He is literally printing money here. The IPD promotion may be going away – but they are still double last season and very lucrative.
And whilst he isn’t the best performance player, with threat like this you can see braces and hatricks which could put him up there.
Still just 24 too and often linked with big clubs. Also plays for Portugal.
This price is criminally low and if he doesn’t deliver a good return this season something will have gone very wrong for him to the point where a holder could count themselves very unfortunate.
Dismal at Dortmund.
Slumping to an early 2-0 defeat to Augsburg just ain’t a good look.
However, like some of the other upsets this week this headline covers up a more balanced FI story.
With such huge possession Dortmund were actually generating some strong underlying numbers. Pretty incredible they couldn’t muster a goal here.
Sancho looks the best of it, or close to. One of his much better games and had Dortmund won and he put away one of his decent chances we could be seeing a competitive score from him.
Perhaps more important is the transfer saga which is heating up again as United apparently make a final bid. Who knows what will happen?
All you can really consider are the possible outcomes as a trader. If it builds up and happens? Short term increase – but he is then at huge risk of a drop as once the move actually happens he is into the stage of having to prove he is worth this extremely high valuation.
Social media advocates of Sancho often speak with a lot of worrying certainty.
I see ludicrous claims on Twitter like “Sancho is the most undervalued player on FI” which is just… a remarkable thing to say and is almost impossible when you consider how extremely unlikely it is that the expensive players are going to be the most undervalued.
So unlikely it’s safer to just call it impossible. Cheaper picks will always come through and return a much greater percentage.
I think Bruno or Neymar both clearly justify the price for example – but are they going to be the best value? No, not even close. They are reasonably reliable choices though and that’s what you pay your premium for – consistency.
It’s not that Sancho can’t justify his price, he might, but believing it with certainty is foolish and is the trademark of the “true believer” who gets burned far more often than he doesn’t.
Holders need Sancho to improve significantly whilst moving to a weaker performance club in a tougher league. It isn’t impossible but it is a lot to ask.
And in the early days the pressure will be very high – if he goes 3-6 games without producing? Many people will be queuing up to say I told you so. And if he does produce early? It’s very difficult to produce enough to be really worth the money.
If on the other hand he stays at Dortmund… you can expect another price dip but the rumours are likely to resurface later and it might well be the best things holders can hope for. At least that way he can live on hype for longer and won’t have to prove much.
That may be the right time to go back to him.
The risk for later is that Manchester United lose interest or no longer need him or get outbid.
All up – I just think this is a really bad gamble to be involved with right now.
Buying him in early 2020 but then knowing when not push your luck and selling at around £12 was so clearly the best call and I’ll stick with that.
This can go very well soon or very badly but I still think it will have been a poor decision either way.
Anyway, other Dortmund players are available.
I continue to be surprised by how good Bellingham looks. He’s an obvious candidate for a pump and previously hasn’t shown a great deal to back that up.
But at Dortmund, he’s starting regularly and the numbers are excellent. He could easily have been on the scoresheet here with two decent efforts. He may start deep but he bursts forward.
Very intriguing. I was expecting this trade to be a disaster at this price but so far he is really proving that wrong.
If he keeps playing I think he will rise nicely from here. My only real worry is that his pitch time will start to be reined in.
On performances… he is earning his place. But there is a lot of talent at Dortmund and competition is fierce.
You have to consider also the ease with which people would buy him if he scores which is no small factor.
At this point I’d be willing to cross the line into “Bellingham now looks a good trade.”
A month ago, saying that might have made me be sick, just a little bit, in my mouth. So let it never be said I can’t change my mind when the facts change!
Elsehwere, Guerreiro looks exceptional – well in range of cruising the defender dividends sometime soon. He makes my explosion imminent list despite being subbed off – he is so good he could win it in 60-70 minutes.
Brandt replaed Guerreiro and showed some superb FI numbers. His only problem is pitch time, given 90 minutes regularly we should see good things. For 36 minutes his numbers were genuinely exceptional. It was a soft game despite the loss but it still highlights a players potential.
Reus came on too as he makes his way back from injury. When fully fit he’s a big player for Dortmund and he’s desperately undervalued at £1 or under.
You know these veterans who are unpopular and nobody wants them until they smash a dividend out of the park like Kramaric last week or Gomez yesterday?
It should not surprise anyone paying attention if Reus does that a few times this season.
But do traders have the guts to get over the complex about age and go for it?
Not many do and that’s why for those who time it right these are almost always the most profitable trades around when looking at raw returns – it is absolutely never going to be in the comfort blanket players that are already popular.
2 November
Another good display from Gouiri. No goal here but could have had 2 – great chances. Incredibly consistent for a young player – could hardly be going better for him at Nice.
Clearly the correct call for him to leave Lyon for experience. He can win now and it’s the form that can also get him big club rumours for later.
Win for Lees-Melou. He’s one of those occasional winner punt picks that can nick wins, I’ve featured him a couple of times this season. On penalties which is his key weapon.
Not many are going for picks like this as the focus, rightly, is on the big hitters but for those who do like good punts like this – it really only takes 1 win for them to earn a massive chunk of their purchase price.
Good from Rony Lopes too, he’s a new signing that has some potential. Used to be a Monaco “future wonderkid” type who fell on hard times. But he is at Nice to make his come back.
Very well taken goal. Couple of key passes. Took a corner. Contributed defensively. Could be a contender and 60p is a decent punt.
4-0 victory for Monaco. As reported last time under new coach Kovac this team are showing some very performance friendly stuff this season.
This wasn’t even a particularly dominant game for them – they are capable of better.
Ben Yedder was close to taking the dividend here with the matchwinner and an assist. As covered many a time he’s a player I love to recycle for consistent IPD’s – and he can nick you an occasional win too.
A criminally undervalued player. Monaco have tough fixtures and IPD hunters tend to target easier runs. But Yedder has little respect for big teams and his scoring run continued including here and away against Lyon.
In the last 3 games he’s returned 4 goals and 1 assist. And still available for 70p. This is free money. Or as close to it as you’ll ever see.
Something of a fight back from Volland with two goals – breaking his 7 game goal drought since he moved to Monaco. Must be a relief because expectations for Volland were high – he was considered a big signing.
Overall these performance numbers are atrocious and it’s hard to see how he wins with numbers like 17 touches in 68 minutes.
However – he’s rock bottom at a 45p bid and if he reaches anything like his Leverkusen form he can return strong IPD.
I’d probably wait another game or so to check consistency though – until yesterday he has never even looked like scoring at Monaco.
Gelson Martins always worth keeping an eye on too. Goal and assist here and he’s just 46p now.
As a midfielder numbers are a little soft but on Monaco’s big possession days which happen frequently he could compete. This is his first goal of the season but he’s had good chances and could easily add more.
A good game vs Lyon somewhat ruined by a sending off.
1-1 in the end which masks some good FI performances. Which is perhaps a shame on a day when most traders were probably crying out for a big winner.
Renato Sanches was a monster in the middle of the park, racking up 115 passes which is elite level.
Limited to a long range crack by way of threat which is common. But he’ll get occasional goals and on those days he is capable of some huge scores, possibly grazing 300.
I’ve liked the pick all season and the more I see the more consistent he looks.
Bamba scored again. Really in form player transformed from last season as discussed here a few times.
Wonderful strike that is worth finding on the highlights. And a great all round display with tons of involvement. He’s getting better if anything. Already on my explosion imminent list – and he’ll stay there another week at least.
Until the sending off Lyon were playing well despite going behind early. They did well to hang on for 45 minutes with 10 men.
They’ve had good results lately but there has been a notable shift in style.
Earlier in the season Lyon were dominating – producing nice performance numbers – but losing games.
In the last 3 they have won 2 and got a good draw yesterday – but they have done it by giving up a ton of possession.
This is producing some dismal performance numbers from players we usually expect more from – Depay, Aouar.
That’s tough as traders have minimal patience right now – and Lyon not being in Europe already put them under pressure.
The best hope for Lyon assets may be decent transfers. Both Depay, Aouar and Moussa Dembelé could be good candidates there. Without major investment though that would leave Lyon looking very thin for next season.
They do have 4 decent league fixtures up next – they’ll need to return to high possession play whilst maintaining positive results to figure on FI though.
Difficult side to have confidence in due to this inconsistency. But that can be ok with players like Dembelé and Aouar as if they win it’s a bonus and you have the transfer as the primary reason to hold.
Dembelé looks particular value for that reason. This price dropping to under £1 on a bid is absolutely crackers. If the right link drops he could be a £2-3 player with ease. And even if he went to a middle ranking club he’d still likely pull in more than his price in IPD.
Depay trickier because the narrative that “He’ll be bad at Barcelona” seems to have taken hold. I don’t think that is necessarily true but it will be a while before he can prove it.
1 November
Some tasty performance numbers at Rennes. They are dominating games recently and the only reason it hasn’t become more obvious is that they’ve rarely been winning games.
Until now. They beat Brest and Nayef Aguerd capitalised with a huge score – sweeping Star Player (much to the annoyance of… well almost everyone except FI who won’t have to payout much!).
Actually though this wasn’t unforeseeable and I consider this a bit of a slip on my part – it was possible to see this coming.
Whilst Rennes haven’t won many the numbers are great and Aguerd himself is showing very consistent goal threat for a defender.
This could actually happen again. Tough fixtures in the next two but they ease up a bit afterwards.
Could be a value punt at under 60p.
This also looks good for youngster Terrier – vastly improved game for the former Lyon man. Well competitive and better than he has shown all season. Should have scored really.
A good sign for him and 57p on a bid is cheap. Wasn’t long ago he was considered a bright France prospect and the Rennes move is to help him get minutes and revive his career.
Big Rennes numbers also puts Camavinga in range of a very occasional win which would delight traders who shop for players using Football Manager and nothing else.
He’ll need one because that price tag is insane for a player with limited FI suitability. But if this possession level keeps up for Rennes he could push through on a good day which could spark optimism.
Not a great deal new at PSG from midweek in what is a heavily rotated side.
I highlighted Rafinha’s big potential before his move to PSG – but as per last review it hasn’t really materialised in the way holders would have hoped, yet.
The baseline is there and he’s getting minutes. In the past he’s added goals but he’s limited to speculative efforts really.
However, one encouraging sign is the on pitch position – he’s not that deep and hovering on the edge of the box. 4 touches in the area this time.
That means something can easily fall to him and he has the baseline to make it count. Intriguing punt option for 39p now and shouldn’t be written off yet.
26 October
The hatrick for the small club obscure striker – Dia this time.
People will pile into these for the IPD but I think the thing to do here if you are holding already or one of the ones piling in… just sell and take the price rise rather than waiting for the dividend.
In a worst case scenario here you could be buying at a peak of £1.08 and today can’t sell for more than 65p. Some meagre IPD dividends are no compensation for that at all.
If you were holding already in the hope of this happening one day, or you bought very swiftly and immediately sold as the price rose from 85p or so… that’s short term trading done right.
If you are going to engage in “on the goal” buying you have to be swift and ruthless.
Rotation is just going to be a feature of this packed season and we see it here.
Gouiri benched but is generally looking good as per midweek scouting.
Most interesting was youngster Kephren Thuram who I highlighted in pre-season scouting as a player to watch. He’s already been unlucky to miss out on a win with a 252 score.
And whilst coming off the bench he was close to netting a matchwinner here and should really have won the game for Nice late on. His header from Gouiri’s free kick was a golden chance that he sent wide.
A solid value youngster with some real FI potential.
No big scores were coming from this draw but there are some positive performances.
Bamba shows great consistency again. As reported a few times of late he’s transformed from nowhere last season to regular contender the next.
He’s on my explosion imminent list for the first time which is something I definitely would not have expected in pre-season.
Renato Sanches put in another solid display too. Only ever really one goal away from a big score and he could be good for 6-9 goals in a good season. And he could nick soft days on his baseline alone or with an assist. Solid pick.
Bad to worse for Jonathan David as he was benched in favour of veteran Yilmaz. Came on for the final 15 minutes but made no impact.
Worst possible start at Lille but with the price creeping to £1.18 on a bid… you start to wonder whether that is a value pickup in hope of a fight back.
He is still just 20 and it’s surely too early to totally write him off.
Has been getting chances to score.
The bigger concern is the poor underlying performance numbers but if he were to score on one of the upcoming European nights people may not notice as the scores are boosted.
Ekambi stole the show here netting twice including the matchwinner to secure the forward category win with 260 points.
Not incredible performance numbers outside of the goals but what he did was tidy. That’s 4 goals in 2.
He’s looked a threat for much longer than that though and it’s no surprise to see him get going.
He was last covered back on the 13th September in Scouting where I highlighted his consistent threat and said he looked really good value.
The win is perhaps unexpected but the IPD for that money isn’t. Even now he is available on a 54p bid which seems insanely cheap – and reflects the IPD buyers trying to get out the next day.
I think people have him confused with a flash in the pan IPD player but that’s not the case – he should be a consistent scorer. And if Lyon players move on in January (Depay? Dembele?) they may lean on him more and more.
If you picked him up in September and sold as he rose in price that’s some strong trading. And there is no reason that couldn’t be repeated again on this low bid with him in this form.
And maybe if he scores again that price rise will be more sustained.
A goal for Depay although overall it was one of his weaker games. He’s going to remain a powerhouse who should pop up with wins and I’d have some optimism at Barcelona too.
We are seeing now though why I put a lot of focus onto CL/Europa involved players. Those games are really exciting the market right now and Lyon being out is costing their key assets.
New signing Paqueta is worth watching. He’s shown some very high potential at times but really struggled in Milan. He gets a fresh start here. We’ve seen nearly two full games. So far, not overly impressive and I don’t see him in contention yet.
Still just 23 though and was playing for Brazil not long ago. And his Flamengo numbers were really strong. I’ll be keeping an eye on him to see if he can revive his career at Lyon.
Dembelé continues to be frozen out. Watch this one – this £1.09 bid looks incredible for a player who is extremely likely to pick up big club links. And the more he gets benched the more likely that is.
Seems hard to believe anyone is really letting him go for that low price and it’s something I’d be more than happy to exploit if so.
For that price there really aren’t that many truly bad outcomes on the table for him at just 24 years old. And there are plenty of really good outcomes.
25 October
Thauvin remains dangerous though they have some tough CL match ups to come. Some decent domestic games on the way though.
Still in range of wins holders just want to keep an eye on those transfer rumours. He could be available free next Summer and he’s got a mixed bag of links from Milan to Leicester to even Villa.
Young Bayern loanee Cuisance looks good so far. Plenty of minutes and overall numbers are very tidy. Lacking threat but he is getting into the box so something should fall to him eventually.
Would not expect immediate fireworks but big scores are possible and as a long term prospect I think he’s value.
A win for Neymar – and he didn’t even need a goal. Not a surprise – I said in the CL review article this week how close he almost always is whenever he plays.
I can’t recall the spread he had yesterday but I suspect it was lower than £9.69 and you can even see a 5p rise in the Blue button price. As I said in the CL article – when wins are this likely – it is awful to watch people pile in after a win like this. Unless you happen to be holding. Then it’s brilliant.
If you want them, and you know they are likely to win, sign them up if at all possible. We should never pile in after a near inevitable win it’s tragic. Not that I will complain – these are the people who fuel a lot of the profits possible on FI. But it’s something of a personal bugbear and chasing wins and big scores is one of the worst sins on FI.
No reason Neymar can’t keep doing this again and again. Premium price but he’s premium for a good reason.
A brace for new boy Moise Kean. He is, as reported here many a time, an absolutely tragic performance player though.
In fact I said in scouting last week to expect goals but not big scores. Looking at that price rise… there are going to be some happy people who flipped this and some very unhappy people who are left holding this heavy bag this morning.
This is why it’s so important to be aware of the real quality of this player. If you know he’s poor you know if you buy on this goal you have to sell very quickly – you can flip with confidence as you have a clear game plan and your eyes are wide open.
If you don’t – it’s so easy to be seduced by a young player scoring twice at PSG. This is the person who now can only sell for less than he bought for and they are now really dependant on a second wave of IPD buying just to get out for what they paid. Poor trading.
Another game for Rafinha Alcantara in which he looked tidy but had no threat. It’s a little disappointing as he looked capable of much better on his historic numbers.
Would likely do much better in higher possession games and despite the 4-0 scoreline it wasn’t a dominant PSG display they only had 55% possession.
All hope for a breakout new player is not lost but holders will need to see more attacking intent.
The ray of hope is that he does get into the box so a chance falling his way isn’t impossible.
19 October
Depay managed 3 assists and the bigger headline is that he was just centimetres away from adding a goal.
If he’d have just stretched that little bit further – he’s beating Kane yesterday. Fine margins.
Just an incredibly consistent FI powerhouse and a stay at Lyon is no bad thing at all.
Barcelona probably come in for him again in January – but he has already dropped in price to account for this. He was £5 in August and available still for just £3.55 even today.
Social media seems to paint a negative picture of him at Barcelona. He will lose penalties to Messi sure – but Depay doesn’t rely just on those.
By the time January rolls around I suspect £3-4 is going to look much more unremarkable as a price tag. And it’s very likely we see Depay win before then too.
I like the pick and whether he goes to Barcelona or not in January… I’m not entirely fussed. I’d probably prefer him to stay but I think this is a good price either way.
Under new coach Kovac Monaco’s possession is much higher – 80% in this game (although that is against 10 men). But this is something we’re consistently seeing across recent games.
You can do a lot on FI with big possession. The only reason we’re not seeing this come through in the scoring is because Monaco have only won 1 of the last 4.
If Monaco do improve though there are some obvious players set to benefit.
Gelson Martins is one. His last 2 games have been really strong, lacking only the finish and the win. For 45p to 68p he looks close to a competitive score.
Yedder is well back in value range again and hits the right point in his buy him/sell him cycle. He chipped in with another goal this weekend.
Golovin is usually strong and will return from injury soon. On that £1.50 bid he looks very tempting – he could do some damage with Monaco getting this kind of possession.
Volland is the exception and looks really poor over his opening 5 for Monaco overall.
No threat at all and doesn’t see much of the ball either. Worrying because he was expected to become a mainstay of this team – holders could have expected better.
The main problem Monaco have is that their fixture run to Christmas is tragic. Lyon, Nice, PSG, Lille, Marseille all to come with a few softer games sprinkled in.
I’m less concerned for the IPD focused Yedder as Monaco do not seem to have a problem scoring it’s at the back that is costing them. Plus he’s a bargain right now and he doesn’t have much respect for big teams his record versus tough opponents is good.
However, given the rock bottom prices I think players like Martins or Golovin would still be good bets too. And the fixtures ease up close to Christmas.
Another goal from Gouiri. In truth this was quite sad – one of the worst defender/keeper mix ups I’ve seen in professional football. Or indeed, in Sunday league.
He was in the right place to finish though and he had decent chances outside of that too.
It was an unremarkable 140 score despite that goal though. This is a case of his best games not quite lining up with his goals. On other days I can see him pushing up 225+ very easily.
Also had a good game for France U21 recently scoring twice and assisting.
This is about as good a start as holders can hope for – developing well. Has a chance of wins now and could get bigger transfer speculation in future.
A thumping win for Lille who now top the Ligue 1 table.
Bamba continues his transformation from zero to hero – another goal and assist here. Only really missing the matchwinner which puts him ahead of Kane and he could have won with better luck.
This is something I’ve been highlighting recently – it’s not just that he scored here – it’s that over the first 7 league games he’s been consistently strong.
A different player from last season and he remains good value. Still just 24, can win now, and could be the next big move off the Lille production line. A year later than planned, but better late than never.
A good Lille season also puts former golden boy Renato Sanches in a strong position. His overall involvement is fantastic and he adds occasional goals too. It may take 4-6 games but the big scores are surely coming playing like this.
Also featured regularly for Portugal now too. Under £2 is good value.
These are the main two Lille targets for sure. There are a few promising fringe youngsters though.
Ikoné suprisingly struggles for minutes this campaign but what we’ve seen is pretty good. Added his first goal of the campaign this weekend.
Superb for France U21 this week too. Not just for the goal and assist but damn… his FI numbers are literally off the charts there. That’s a decent indicator he may improve at a bigger club, or it may just reflect these were very soft games.
Those international numbers surprised me because for the club as a midfielder he is well behind where he needs to be to win. But if he performed well and got a big transfer rumour later it wouldn’t be a surprise he’s still only 22. 93p or thereabouts is a decent punt.
Yazici struggles for regular minutes too but again when he plays it’s good stuff. Scored his first of the season here from the bench – breaking a very long goal drought.
Also features strongly for Turkey who will be at the Euros.
Decent pick up for a patient trader at under £1.
Weah is not seeing many minutes yet but is expected to get chances and his historic numbers are very promising.
Will be very interested to see him getting more minutes. Despite limited appearances when he has come on he’s been close to scoring twice.
Unfortunately David‘s struggles continue as covered in last week’s article.
Looks awful for FI scoring overall. He’s getting chances to score but even a match winning goal isn’t going to get him anywhere near a competitive FI total playing like this.
18 October
This was a total rout. Likely, it would have been anyway but Nimes played with 10 men from the 12th minute and with 76% possession PSG could rack up some huge numbers.
Mbappé benefited strongly racking up by far and away his biggest ever points total. Does this silence the doubters over his ability?
Not really – this is just one game and it was about as favourable a match as you’ll ever see. He’d have to show consistency versus tougher opposition before we could call this a genuine game changer.
It was Sarabia who stole star man though. This is not entirely unexpected. In the August pre-season preview I noted his improvement in 2020 and thought him a good punt.
His main issue is getting on the pitch for 90 minutes often enough to show it. Looking out for times when injuries make that more likely and trading around that could be good.
But also, at 62p to 83p for a player who can pop up 2-3 times per season with a score that can challenge on a Gold Day? He’s a decent pick for a patient holder too.
Another stand out was Rafinha Alcantara. He had a really good game in general, making a good case for further inclusion in the side.
Should deliver the expected big baselines, managed an assist too. No shots but he did get forward here.
As per the previous review under the transfer article – he’s a high potential player. What remains to be seen is how often he will play – PSG had a ton of players unavailable. Manchester United on Tuesday will be a better chance to see PSG’s first 11 selections so I’ll be interested to see if he starts over someone like Paredes.
Moise Kean got his chance on debut. He looks like… Moise Kean. No real change from his usual at PSG. Didn’t have a great game, did hit the woodwork with a header.
We can expect goals if he plays although he likely understudies Icardi. We cannot expect big performance scores though he really needs 2+ goals, probably 3, to challenge on any kind of competitive day.
At full back, 29 year old new signing Florenzi is consistently looking very dangerous. Another goal here. We can call him a regular first teamer by now and I think at 71p to 78p traders are underestimating him because he is older at 29.
But playing like this we can expect plenty of challenges for performance dividends this season and I’d peg him at around 
.
Decent game for Thauvin who as I’ve said in scouting has been something of a sleeping performance powerhouse – he may not have a string of big scores on his CV but that is more to do with injury than ability.
Solid effort here, unlucky perhaps to lose the matchwinner to a late Bordeaux goal. He would have been smashed by Bruno’s exceptional score anyway but that’s by the by – all we can ask of players is to put up scores capable of winning and then luck does the rest on any given match day.
He could have been comfortably over 250 here with the matchwinner so it shows he has the ability to win a gold day outright.
Wonderful goal actually worth looking up. As new site partners FootballTeamNews point out in their match review – he’s the only player on the park capable of this magic.
Remains a solid pick up for the money.
The other point of interest was Cuisance being thrown straight in. I had high hopes for him at Bayern and the late unexpected transfer rumour caught holders on the hop.
This may turn out to be a decent move though and we can say his first game was tidy, generating the baselines that could see him in contention. And he had a good playing position.
No shots on goal here but… I’d say it’s an encouraging opener and for the money at £1.28 to £1.44 he’s still looking a good young FI suitable player.
5 October
Defeat for Monaco – a mixed start to the season for sure.
This disguises consistent good numbers for Ben Yedder, and increasingly, Gelson Martins.
Martins shows some wonderful stuff at times and this was the second time this season where he has shown a level that can see him put up a very competitive score even on a Gold day in midfield.
Given his outrageous price of 69p Blue Button (and he doesn’t even have a bid price right now!) that feels like a steal. It would surprise me if this season went by without at least 2-3 good scores from him.
Yedder will probably keep scoring anyway but as new site partners Football Team News point out in their match report Monaco have a rough period of fixtures on the way from here all the way until Christmas. Lyon, Nice, PSG, Lille, Marseille all to come.
They’ve done ok and definitely look a much better performance outfit under Kovac. But they’ll do well to get to Christmas and remain in 6th I suspect. Early 2021 looks much kinder for them.
Lille have started the season strongly and it’s another comfortable victory here.
Renato Sanches the best of it as expected, scoring his first of the campaign and putting in a fine display.
213 looked a bit low to me given my higher expectations of him. On analysis though he’s missed out on the matchwinner and also lost -25 for big chances missed and a foul.
So a little unlucky – this is why I like him though. On another day he can push into that 250-275 range where he can compete and for just £1.39 to £1.83 for a former Golden Boy at just 23 who also plays for Portugal… What’s not to like?
Jonathan David‘s struggles continue. He does get some chances but the threat isn’t brilliant for a striker. Even worse – I don’t think a goal will deliver a decent score anyway.
He looked promising going into the season but on the early season evidence this looks like a bust.
Bamba, as per previous reports, continues to look a player transformed this campaign. No goals in 4 since his opening 2 but he is not without threat. He’s also chipping in with assists and has the all round game to make his goals count.
Vastly improved and we can call it consistent now. Amazingly, still below £1 on a bid. Value.
I also like Ikone when he is given the chance. His minutes have been surprisingly managed lately. I wonder whether he is being wrapped up in case he gets a move? I guess we’ll find out soon.
Lyon will be glad when the transfer window shuts as it’s very disruptive to them.
Aouar is now set to stay. Depay looks Barcelona bound. And Dembelé… is up in the air but barring a last ditch deal probably stays too.
That may prove a blessing in disguise for Aouar holders – I wouldn’t rate his chances massively at Arsenal.
At Lyon he should be a key player and with Depay out of the picture… Aouar stepped up here to take the penalty and scored.
It’s only really a lack of goals that prevented Aouar from posting regular big scores so that could be a game changer.
Actually – his open play threat throughout 2020 has been strong and I am surprised this is only his 4th goal of the year.
I’m sure some will feel disappointed he didn’t get an EPL move. But I think for those holding it is the opposite.
I’m not sure the old rules of “He’ll definitely get a rise if he comes to the EPL!” apply now. People are used to the idea of Arsenal not being brilliant for performance so… you have to assume most are just trying to flip the transfer.
With the price dropping under £2 on the bid, his performance prospects at Lyon potentially improving and a transfer drama stored up for later (Where he can do better than Arsenal potentially). I like this.
Depay moving on is big news and this is looking increasingly likely. It’s hard to say whether he’ll continue his incredible FI numbers at Barcelona. We don’t entirely know where he will play.
Will he take Fati’s slot on the wing? Fati is in fine form. Will he go central, with Griezmann dropping back to Number 10? Hard to say although left wing seems more likely.
I’m fairly neutral on the move. We won’t really know whether he’ll succeed or not until we see some games in a Barcelona shirt but Depay undeniably has the ability to pull it off.
The concrete downer is the loss of penalties. But… we’re also paying a lot less if buying now which compensates.
Depay starting at Barcelona for £3 or thereabouts? It’s very difficult to say that does not sound value.
Moussa Dembelé seems simpler. He’s often been out of the squad probably for a potential transfer. He’s also been out of the goals when playing but not for lack of chances – it’s very likely the goals will flow before long.
If he misses the transfer today, the price at a £1.14 to £1.52 blue button is insanely low, certainly at £1.25 or under.
This is the sort of trade I like – where almost every likely outcome is a winner. Remain at Lyon and reintegrate? IPD value returns more than enough and he gets gossip for a big move later.
Moves today? He probably goes to a good club and he’ll more than likely score to generate IPD value.
How do we lose the bet? Well. He’d have to flop so hard that traders won’t pay more than £1.25 which seems… unlikely.
He’s 24 now – we know plenty about him so the odds of him suddenly becoming a bad player are slim. And yet he’s not old enough where this starts to impact the value.
Stacking odds in our favour like this is the heart of good trading.
As traders we’re not trying to predict the future per se – we’re stacking the deck so that we are in positions that are easy to win from and hard to lose.
Aouchiche looks some way off a win based on his early season numbers.
As covered last time he is a popular social media pump – but one I think has genuine merit the pumpers don’t always get it wrong – a broken clock is right twice a day and all that.
I liked him in the pre-season preview for £1.77 but by late Sept I was sceptical of the rise to £2.68-£2.93.
He has really crashed down now at £1.60 to £2.07. A lot of players have dropped sharply but this seems particularly severe.
This is one reason why I am always wary of holding onto pumps – even ones with genuine merit. The sort of trader who piles into a trade because of social media hype is not the type of trader who is going to stick around during tougher times.
That said… if you can pick him up for £1.60 I think he’s back in value range for patient traders.
I don’t expect regular huge scores at St Etienne – but he’s a fantastic future prospect and this is a development move – if he performs well he should pick up big transfer rumours possibly by next Summer.
4 October
In the preview I highlighted youngster Kephren Thuram who had some very promising numbers and a very friendly price tag.
He put up a very good 252 yesterday and if this hadn’t been overshadowed by James Rodriguez’s monster 300+… this could have made a real impact as a 19 year old sub £1 Gold Winner.
Lovely goal too and it shows why I like him for the money – he’s got huge baseline numbers but he does occasionally get forward too.
A genuinely good young prospect for a patient trader – still available for a bargain price despite putting up a big score already.
Nothing for Gouiri but he’s getting chances and seeing lots of the ball for a forward – remarkably so.
In pre-season I liked him but was worried he might have too much hype versus his ability.
I needn’t have worried – he’s consistently showing he’s got the chops to succeed on FI and we should see more big scores from him this season playing like this.
A routine win for PSG and some big scores. A pity for holders it came on a Friday but a Bronze day is no small beer these days – those dividends are significant and that’s a massive change from last season.
Two main stories – Neymar and Mbappé of course.
Between the two of them… this is a battle Neymar is always going to win over a season or so because he’s just so, so much stronger for FI purposes than Mbappé.
This isn’t luck of who got the matchwinner or similar – it’s a gulf in class and we’re going to see that continue by and large.
Most premium players are taking a kicking in this downturn, even the ones who are well within a true value rational price like Bruno. Lots of shares in these players are held by a small number of big fish and it only takes a few nervous big traders to send a price spiralling right now.
There is a key difference between Neymar and Mbappé though – and that’s the likelihood of Neymar winning and keeping his price afloat – as he has here.
The reason I’ve really not been keen on Mbappé for a long time is that outside of the Liverpool transfer… he just has no chance of justifying his price in dividends now. And worse, it’s far from certain he will at another club later on either – PSG is about as easy a platform as it ever gets.
So with a Neymar or Bruno… whilst they can take a kicking at times along with all premiums… the chances of them doing something to turn it around are much higher. Which gives me reasons why I can disagree with other people who may be selling and stick to my guns.
If I hold a premium player whose price is based mainly on hype… and Mbappé is far from the only offender… what basis do I have for thinking they will bounce back? Not a good one. We can only disagree with consensus when we’ve got good reason to.
Elsewhere… no goal for Icardi but again… big chance. He bagged 2 last game but had a dry spell before that. The evidence suggests he’s underperforming and we can expect more goals from him in the coming weeks.
29 September
A win for Savanier and it’s worth a note on how to handle this sort of “small club performance God” type of player.
If we recall last season, he started as a legitimate value target at £1 or under. But after a respectable score or two, social media got hold of it, shared some analysis that looked vaguely creditable but was full of holes and somehow got the price pushed to £2.50+.
This was always ludicrous and a car crash waiting to happen as covered here at the time.
But, after that car crash is done, you are left with a player who does have some ability – and all the most dangerous pumps do. The most believable lies contain a grain of truth, after all.
So over pre-season at £1.50 or below and often much lower on a bid I liked him, especially with dividends doubled.
He’s hit a hot streak now, and is pushing north of £2.10 and is coming back into fashion. Brilliant – if you went for him at the time we should have done – which is when he was cheap and out of fashion.
Because his ability has not changed a jot from when I reviewed him at £1.40. The only reason he is £2.10-£2.17 now is that more people are aware of it – which is the whole point of scouting.
Given dividends have doubled… you can probably push this a bit further.
However the key to this sort of trade is that what we have seen is likely a hot streak. It’s very unlikely we see 2x 240+ scores in a single month from him. So piling in now? Not the best idea.
I’d be much more likely to cash in on the good fortune and perhaps come back to him later when things cool down a bit.
Yedder comes good with 3 goals in the last 2.
He had a drought at the wrong time in August when he was primed to make the most of the IPD promotion. Unfortunate – but as reported here the goals were always likely to come with his threat and his record.
And they did – delivering 3 hefty IPD’s although perhaps a little later than holders would have wanted.
Ben Yedder is alive and well. An incredible 93p to £1.15 again and I look forward to another season of abusing his price swings and IPD returns.
I advise traders with a little bit of time for IPD trading not to ignore low key players like this because whilst you never hear it crowed about on social media – the percentage return on this sort of player when traded correctly around the peaks can dwarf that you will see on the popular “essential” players you hear about all the time.
2 November
United’s results always have a big impact on the market – their assets often attract big price tags and can get rewarded when it goes well – and punished when things start going badly.
The home league form is so poor. Yet they have recently beaten PSG away and demolished RB Leipzig 5-0 midweek.
It’s by now a fairly popular opinion that OGS is too inexperienced to turn this side into title winners. It’s possible he could be sacked next EPL game. But we’ve heard that before. Pochettino waiting in the wings makes it credible.
Hard to call. And that uncertainty causes doubt. Will Fernandes retain penalties? Will a new tactical system be good for some and bad for others? All valid questions that we will not know the answer to until we see whether he is really sacked, who takes over, and at least a game or two under any new coach.
If it was Pochettino then I think most would be optimistic. He’s well regarded. Plays a 4-2-3-1 which usually gives us good performance options. Has natural roles for players like Fernandes. But whilst we’re on the “Will OGS get sacked?” narrative I’d expect things to stay on a downer.
We should get a routine victory vs Istanbul midweek but we can also expect rotation here. Could be big scores but it really depends who starts.
The tests may be Everton away and then West Brom at home. Poor results there could be the end for OGS.
On the pitch little has changed. Fernandes had a poor game yesterday and was wasteful. But overall his numbers in the last 5-6 remain very strong.
With this uncertainty and a bad performance, with the market this gloomy, I’d expect his price slide to continue but he’d have to really fall off a cliff to be not worth £7.45 which is what people seem to be selling for. Rational value would be closer to £12+ if playing something close to his usual.
Rashford is in good form and whilst he’ll usually needs more than 1 goal we can see him make some challenges, and hoover up media too. Holding his price pretty well and anywhere £5-6 is value.
Greenwood I have thought would suffer for a long time – absolutely no way I could see him holding £10+ that was crackers.
£5.19 to £6.07 now… it’s a lot better and no longer outrageous. But unlike Bruno the chances of him putting up a big score to yank people back to him are not high. It’s just a case of people getting too excited too soon. He does have future potential including for FI.
Pogba is diving under £3 now… he’s been a disaster waiting to happen for a long time so this is not unexpected. I can’t really see a reason why it would recover soon. He’d have to get a decent out of EPL move and the price would have to drop a bit more. Then maybe if he looked good at a different club.
Or if he really hit such a low that he became value for the Euros that might be another scenario where he could do well.
Outside of this there really isn’t a great deal of FI relevant talent at United for all the obsessing over them.
Martial, De Beek and Telles the only other contenders.
Martial isn’t far away and looking in better form. £1.53 on a bid now is a decent pick up – particularly if people get more glum on United and he dips even lower.
De Beek we haven’t seen enough of yet but he’s got potential. And likewise Telles who in theory could be a contender based on his historic record.
A win but not a convincing one. Spurs gave up far too much possession here for a home tie – a poor sign for performance prospects.
Reguilon did quite well. I’ve been worried for his price in recent scouting – the hype gave him too much to do at £2. But if you can get this £1.26 bid now he remains a decent player and that’s a much more sensible price tag he should be able to justify.
Good all round display. Laid on an assist. Had an effort of his own. Advanced position – not much to dislike.
I’ve liked Doherty and overall his numbers are good – arguably better than Reguilon’s. Except for yesterday when he saw little of the ball – almost as if there was a tactical instruction to target Reguilon’s flank. But he’s cheap at a 52p bid and if his overall numbers continue I’d stay optimistic.
Bale’s introduction and matchwinner the talking point though. Lovely but worrying – he did so little on the ball apart from that. Just 10 touches. It’s very difficult to produce winning scores with those kind of numbers.
He did make those touches count with a key pass added as well. Playing like we have seen so far he’d need to be prolific to figure in the scoring.
He’d need to start smashing it to the point where he is hoovering up regular media to succeed I think. But that initial hype has faded too so… £2.15 on a bid now isn’t a bad punt.
I’d like to see at least a full game before judging though.
Son and Kane remain by and far and away the best Spurs assets and should be reliable.
A big showing from Ward-Prowse – building on his goal last time.
Last week I called him only a very occasional winner and he almost proved me wrong with 2 goals and an assist here. Holders are unlucky he had an otherwise off colour game where Villa dominated possession.
On a more normal day for Saints I’d expect Ward-Prowse to be comfortably clearing 250+ with this particularly in a soft fixture at home.
On his overall record I’d probably put this down to being a bit of a hot streak. However we also saw Ings go down with a nasty looking injury and in that case Ward-Prowse probably takes over on penalties.
And they have favourable fixtures coming up.
If you can get this 94p bid which you probably can as on the goal buyers will be desperate to sell – that’s not a bad punt.
And it is a shame to lose Ings – as covered last time he’s a great IPD rotation option – one of the many cheap strikers right now whose IPD returns are extremely reliable. But there are no shortage of those targets as covered here.
Loss for Villa but they had decent possession – generally showing some good performance numbers at times this season and may provide some occasional winners.
These smaller performance suitable clubs in the EPL may do better than usual since it is the only league with 3 subs and they have less cause for rotation because they are not in Europe.
I still favour big hitting teams this year heavily but where you can find a bargain punt it can be worth it.
Grealish had a very good day. Just the 1 goal but he could have had more with 6 efforts. Added an assist. With the hype firmly off him I’m now considering it a good time to go back to him.
Last review on 5th October I said the same on a bid of £2.23 potentially, that’s crept up to £2.60 now but I still think that’s decent value when you consider how easy it would be for the transfer rumours to kick up again. And we have the internationals coming up again where he could shine.
Barkley is a capable winner too. In a big 6 team playing regularly in his natural position he’d be one of the EPL’s best performance players without doubt.
We’ve mostly seen him in a tough period for Villa but he’s still played pretty well. Can play himself back into contention for a bigger move or return to Chelsea, and may figure for England.
At an incredible 66p there is plenty of upside there and little downside – it’s unlikely he goes anywhere worse than Villa.
And when you only have to generate 66p in 3 years in dividends – that’s when the normally absurd “career dividends” argument for long term holds is acceptable.
1 November
Good display and comfortable victory – the sort of game where City assets could have cleaned up with a little more luck.
Walker was close – pipped by Rennes defender Aguerd. I tend not to talk about Walker too much as he’s not a regular competitor. Particularly recently the goal threat isn’t great. And neither is the assist potential.
I would not expect this again soon. The most interesting thing is that when he was leading the price jumped, but it has fallen back again very swiftly on the bid.
You have to be really careful if jumping on these rare goalscorers for IPD or similar – anyone good at this will be immediately selling whilst they can and ignoring the dividend.
Cancelo is better and has high assist potential. Was a good display in general that helps him establish, particularly as he gets criticised defensively sometimes. Solid here though.
Not far away with 193 without goal or assist and he is capable of adding either. Goal threat in recent games has dropped but assist potential remains high – something to watch but I think he’s a solid pick.
I would not count out Laporte either. Had a great chance to score and if that goes in he’d be tough to beat. Huge baseline player and scores more than most CB’s have a right to. And just 89p to £1.09 – injury has kept him off the FI radar but I see him as quite similar to Van Dijk in terms of output. Can be particularly good during runs of CL games.
De Bruyne was close, as he almost always is. Had good chances and had one of those gone in he could have been challenging especially on a soft-ish day in midfield.
Looks incredibly consistent and big scores should surely come. He’s not getting the lucky bounces right now – and that makes it a good opportunity to pick him up as impatient people dip out.
Mahrez – likewise. 5 games without a goal now but that’s a wonder. He’s had great chances throughout that period and especially as a forward his numbers are very competitive. £1.45 or anything close to that is a steal.
Ferran Torres had another good performance, a real threat again and amazing he did not score (which is a story for many City players). Looks superb in reality – however as I noted in the CL – this central striker role is abysmal for his FI prospects.
A shadow of what he can produce on the wing. He’d need at least 2 goals to be competitive from here. Troubling as he was really promising in his more natural wing role.
Good all round performance from Sterling. Little toothless but goal threat has not been an issue overall recently. I see him as a little like Kane or Rashford – they can seem unexciting and go on dry spells but then these big ticket England players generally find a way to get back into fashion.
If interested – better to get them when they are quiet like Sterling is now.
Dominant display from Chelsea – the sort of game we’d be looking for their better players to show what they can do.
Ziyech could barely have done much better, a goal and assist. Really showing why he was so great at Ajax. Nice to see.
The score was more disappointing for all that – 189. Subbed off early on 74. Only the 1 shot and he’s capable of more. 3 fouls which cost him -15.
All up he looks well within range of wins if more things go for him but I’d say it’s sort of level rather than the 
I’d hoped for. That puts him under a bit of pressure as a £2.77-£3.33 player – you want a lot for that. Especially given how low people’s patience is right now.
And yet. It’s only his second full game and he could improve easily. Plus Chelsea have really soft fixtures up next.
More than enough to stay interested in him but we’ll need to see an improvement in the numbers and a big score in the next few games for him to hold this price.
Werner is becoming a headache as per the midweek review of the Europa game. He’s not doing badly at all and the goals are flowing. But the switching between winger and central striker roles are making him unpredictable.
Definitely better for us on the wing although he was central vs Southampton where he netted 2 goals and assisted once. So he could win by being explosive the same way a Lukaku might.
It’s all pretty good but what makes me nervous is that he has a big price tag, no immediate big score, and patient is thin. Which in this market is a recipe for a continued price drop.
Under pressure for a win. Which he might get particularly with these kind fixtures ahead.
The current rating in my table feels about right – but it’s not quite the I was hoping for.
A much better game to watch for Havertz – he seems to be settling particularly when played more centrally. Solid numbers overall but lacking threat – consistent with the midweek game.
Another difficult Chelsea player whose high price is bringing pressure. Well capable of appearing with a big score soon – but he’s going to need one.
The standout performance was actually Mount. This was streets ahead of anything we usually see from him. Huge involvement which is unusual, provided an assist and had chances of his own.
If we saw more of this it could be a gamechanger. It’s been a long time since I was keen on Mount – not since he was really cheap and playing for Derby. He never looked close to wins and his £4+ price tag looked utter madness as I reported here at the time.
But he’s £1.55 now and if we saw numbers anything like this in the next game it might be worth changing our mind. Unlike some of the players above he’s not under a great deal of pressure because his price collapse already happened.
Still – 1 good game doesn’t change a long history of being bang average so I wouldn’t jump to it just yet.
Reece James is nosing ahead in the last two in the battle of the full backs, more efforts on goal than Chilwell. On paper, at least. If you watch he is actually getting into the box a lot so the chances of something falling to him are high.
Given the massive price difference I still think Chilwell is much better value and a strong pick up at a £2.24 bid if you can get it.
Alexander-Arnold’s improved numbers continue for a third game.
An impressive points total of 178 with no goal or assist – possibly his best overall FI display of the season so far.
Lovely and if he keeps this up big scores should be inbound. Though there are tough fixtures to come, mind.
Not helping him much on the market perhaps because people haven’t noticed the improvement, or perhaps because they have realised that he’s still a big price.
He really is – despite the savage drop he had a long way to fall before it became sensible. At £6 now you are out of “This is absolutely bonkers why would you pay that” territory and into “This is not brilliant value” territory.
Which is definitely an improvement. He looks on the edge of a win that might rekindle some interest but I’d still go for many other defenders first who look just as strong if not better and can be in that £2 range.
Speaking of which, Robertson strong too and is also well in range of wins.
A start for Curtis Jones – nice to see. He’s showing why I gave him rave reviews ever since his academy days. These numbers are monstrous especially since he was subbed.
Elite level FI potential in a “young and English” hype package. Looks one of the most genuine wonderkids around still and £1.67 is just a bargain for a long term holder.
Always the danger that he doesn’t make the grade or is loaned out etc but given he’s a home grown Scouser – you’d think they will give him every chance as this sort of player can be the clubs icon.
27 October
Son bags it again all bet it with a soft-ish score. The price is cranking up now but if you really can still get this £2.66 bid he’s value.
The IPD is raining down for him and he can be explosive and challenge for dividends even on tougher days.
I’ll probably mention this in the Tapsoba review too but let’s not forget that players who can consistently hit that 180 range can come through on Bronze/Silver days.
That can bring some otherwise unattractive strikers in and even high baseline midfielders and defenders.
Ideally obviously we want scores that can win on Gold Days particularly if we are paying big prices.
But Bronze and Silver payouts are worth a lot more than they were last year and are much more worthwhile than they used to be.
Kane is still offering solid value as a steady pick as pre previous reviews. Not the best FI player but he can be explosive.
Rotation is getting tough in this team. Reguilon suffering for that as he prefered Davies. We can stomach some rotation particularly this season so I am less worried about that – it’s more that his overall numbers recently have not been brilliant for the price that worries me.
I am more optimistic on Doherty for the bargain 83p price or as low as 58p on a bid. He was not far away from the win with just a decent baseline score of 155.
We have not seen goals or assists from him yet to get him any higher… but he had a decent scoring opportunity vs Linz midweek and he’s consistently creating chances.
Lo Celso really struggling for minutes – unexpectedly. A shame because per minute his numbers look excellent. Playing full matches I’d back him to make an impact but that is not looking likely right now.
26 October
Ward-Prowse with the big 260 score after bagging the match winner.
He’s a consistently high baseline player so when he does drop on a goal or especially a matchwinner we’ll see him challenging.
But that’s going to be rare. If we can expect, optimistically, a goal in every 7-10 games on current threat level, we also need that to drop on a day when Saints win and have decent possession. And we may need the goal to be the matchwinner too.
And even then… like yesterday, he can get beat by a bigger score.
So that gives us maybe one win a season and maybe none, two if very lucky.
With very occasional winners like this there is really only one sensible way to trade them particularly now. You’ve got to be a patient sort who buys them when they have not won for a while and available on a cheap bid.
There is no sense at all buying an occasional winner after the win or during the good game when the price may rise. It’s simply very unlikely to repeat again anytime soon.
And, right now… people are not really rewarding occasional winners with big buying. They are clustering in players that they think can win again soon.
So if you are that patient holder and your rare winner sort of player has a good day – that may be your best moment to cash it out and I’d do it sooner rather than later – possibly even giving up the dividend in order to get a higher sell price. If you wait until the morning… too many will likely be trying to get out.
In different times it may be that people confuse occasional winners with FI superstars and hold longer… but we are not in those times right now.
Whilst we are at Southampton… Ings is another of those reliable goalscorers who remains very much undervalued as an IPD asset. Another, like a Yedder or possibly Morata who can be well worth recycling in and out during runs of favourable fixtures.
The 5x IPD promotion may be over but they are still doubled from last season and any consistent strikers at £1 or below can be a steal.
If we wanted more attacking intent from Partey… we didn’t get it in the second game. It’s like there is a force field on the final third of the pitch and he can never go beyond it.
Should still challenge on a few soft days with strong baselines but so far it looks like hope of him having a more box to box role is fading.
Despite a tough game Gabriel’s numbers held up well. Really quite remarkable CB numbers that should be good to nick some occasional wins. Impressive. And an 89p bid is value now some of the hype has faded.
Strong threat from Saka, he’s close to goals but probably very far away from big scores. He’s just far too lightweight to compete in the midfield category.
Always was – price is being slammed now and continued big losses for overhyped players is something of a theme of the week.
25 October
This poor result vs West Ham masks some very solid performance numbers.
Rodri in particular racked up the points and even had a couple of long range efforts. One day one of these can ping in and he could be clearing 300+. May take a while to come but it probably will.
And in the mean time he can win on baseline alone particularly on Bronze/Silver days.
People are so frustrated with a lack of immediate returns right now which opens uip a lot of value. He’s available as low as £1.07 on a bid potentially.
Gundogan is very similar actually just more of a gametime risk. Still a Germany regular though. Has no bid price at all and if we saw him on a CL night starting he could be a strong punt on a cheap bid.
Mahrez close to a big score as usual. One of the best forwards on FI without doubt when playing. That we haven’t seen many more wins is down to a bit of rotation and some bad luck.
Garcia looked really good again. Very high possession and that’s so consistent. Lack of clean sheets and mixed results holding him back.
Cancelo very strong again going forward. Chipping in with an assist. Had a couple of efforts of his own. Consistent challenger but City will need to improve.
Foden good from the bench per minute. Can he possibly do enough to justify this price? Tough. I consider him one of the highest potential players on FI but you do pay for it. And there is a strong chance holders get bored if he doesn’t deliver quickly.
Have to say it again – which is odd for such a small team – but these possession numbers are off the charts.
Obviously it’s rarely going to count much right now since they aren’t winning.
But players like Loftus-Cheek and Lookman could actually challenge for wins if Fulham ever have a good day.
Lookman a constant threat so would not even be a bad IPD pick. (Even tempting for a Fantasy team!).
Salah unlucky here – could have had 2. And his overall numbers continue to be much better than we saw last season. He’s strongly improved and we should see him in contention before long.
A much improved Alexander-Arnold – benefiting from more possession than Liverpool enjoyed against Ajax or Everton.
It’s not all gloom for holders – he remains a good player and should have his big days again.
It’s just holders need one soon badly. They’ve put themselves under too much pressure for a win by holding at a high price – and it’s costing them.
Jota continues to impress. He is in range of wins for sure. I think traders just need more convincing he’s more than just a backup.
Thiago sidelined but expected back soon. Very interested to see him back because he could crush FI scoring in this team.
19 October
Debut for long suffering Loftus-Cheek – and it was a good one.
A decent performance in general so more minutes are likely. And I have to say the performance numbers are very good especially considering he’s playing for Fulham. If he was still at Chelsea I would not have been disappointed with this level.
Actually Fulham get a fair bit of possession so aren’t awful in that respect.
The main issue holding someone like RLC back from big scores is going to be that Fulham do not look like winning a lot of games.
This is a ray of hope for any remaining holders. There is a reason why he had FI appeal in the first place – he’s got performance ability and a good trend fit if he can get his career back on track.
And given his rock bottom price… if we saw these numbers looking consistent and another 2-3 good performances I would start to look at this as a good bet on RLC rehabilitating himself – the difficulties cannot be denied but the price reflects that and the potential remains.
Lookman also appeared on the radar with a really nice individual goal. I’ve picked him out a few times over the years as a youngster with real FI potential but he’s never really had the platform to display it.
Fulham isn’t likely to be that platform but again… like RLC these performance numbers are really good. Surprisingly so for a smaller club player.
And this is not new for Lookman – his overall career numbers per minute make good reading for traders.
An occasional win for Lookman cannot be ruled out and a good season could generate transfer rumours.
For 85p to 94p that’s a decent punt and it might be a fun one to watch him develop.
I certainly did not think I’d be talking positively about Fulham players anytime soon – any optimism has to be dampened with the knowledge that they are yet to win a game.
But there are good reasons to be optimistic on these two particularly if they show some consistency in the next few games.
Spursy.
Depressing for Tottenham fans to throw a 3-0 lead. But there were plenty of positives overall.
Kane bagged a win. Arguably a little lucky to nick it with 225 on a Gold Day and he needed 2 goals and an assist to get that. But – Kane pops off like this regularly it’s not a rare event.
As per recent reviews here and in the Euro 2020 section – this recent market dip was probably the best chance we’re going to get to pick up these extremely obvious and popular England key players.
He’s a consistent returner in his prime who probably missed out on a key period with Euro 2020 cancelled. But that remains there to look forward to.
Still a solid pick up at under £6. It’s by no means essential to carry key England players but if you are going to, or you think you’ll feel pressured into it if they win or as Euro 2020 approaches – I’d really just get it done sooner rather than later.
Son continues to look strong. I’ve covered him as something of an overlooked player ever since June at £2.05 and it’s a little baffling why such an obviously good player was left at that price. Maybe general corona malaise.
He looks like scoring every game and we only really see threat like this consistently out of someone like Lewandowski. Big statement.
He also has decent performance numbers and if Spurs have a good season he could be a regular challenger.
Not as cheap as he was but if you can get anything close to the £2.67 bid I still think he is good value.
I’ve started to worry a bit for Reguilon with his hype and price tag. He’s far from weak – chipping in with an assist here and the numbers are… ok.
But the thing with defence is that there are a lot of average/slightly better than average players who trade wins with each other and it’s hard for them to set themselves apart.
What I really look for in defenders are the freaks – the total outliers who have stats far and above the majority of the chasing pack.
Reguilon just isn’t hitting that and with the transfer complete… he’s going to come under pressure to deliver big scores at Spurs.
It’s possible… but I can’t think of a particular reason why he is any better than a dozen full backs I could probably pick up for £1.50 or less.
Bergwijn was poor… involvement weak and threat minimal. However… he’s had a couple of games in the Europa qualifying all be it versus very soft opposition where he showed some nice stuff.
And per minute, he was good versus Newcastle too.
There is hope of a good score if he played a full 90 but with Bale arriving… you have to wonder how many full matches he’s going to get.
Speaking of Bale… he came on and changed the game. They were 3-0 up when he started so nobody can say that isn’t true.
He should have scored actually… lovely run through the defence then blazed wide.
That’s good… but overall involvement was dire. I’ll call it a draw for now. 24 minutes is too little to judge him on and they’ve got some soft games up next where we should see more of his potential.
Definitely a capable winner if hitting form and the media should be there too.
I’d be a little wary after his big rise – I think holders will need to see some strong encouragement from these next two games or people may start getting twitchy. That’s less a commentary on Bale and more about the patience of FI traders at the moment.
Quite the start for Barkley, 2 goals in 2.
This is really encouraging for holders, he had a very tidy game and rarely misplaced a pass.
It was a tough away match though so he did not achieve the levels of possession that makes him a potential FI powerhouse. That’s why we only saw him at 187 rather than a more competitive 225+.
But there will be easier games than Leicester away so it’s very possible he can mount some performance challenges even at Villa, especially with them in this kind of form.
He’s also doing his chances of an England recall no harm.
He’s had highs and lows but good players can be quite resilient and have a way of dragging people back to them.
And Villa is only a loan – it’s possible he can play his way back into contention at Chelsea or get a move to another top 6 side.
For the money I think he’s looking a decent pick up again, and may get a bounce if he is included for the November internationals.
18 October
Devastating for Van Dijk holders with this apparent horror injury – latest is he has done his ACL which as we know can be 6 months+.
Currently no sell price at all. A brutal early lesson in how fast any player can fall in the Matching Engine.
What can we do here if one of our players gets crocked?
Ideally… if you see it in early enough you get out if you can.
If you don’t… and not everyone watches every minute of every game (and shouldn’t have to) you are basically stuck now.
After a bad event there is often little we can do about it unless we are really quick.
The only thing we can do is consider things like this in advance of making our buys.
It’s another reason why quality players beat hype in the end – a quality player will eventually come back into fashion even if they hit bad luck.
If the misfortune happens to a player without much substance… maybe the hype factor is gone by the time they have recovered and you are really stuck.
Not the case here – VVD may not be the best FI player but he is solid and he’s particularly good for big runs of tournament matches in the later rounds of the CL and probably the Euros too.
So, whilst it feels very bleak now and holders will indeed be stuck holding an injured player for 4-6 months they have every reason to hope that things will eventually recover.
It’s something to think about when we consider how much we stake on an individual.
I am more bullish on veterans than most and it pays off handsomely particularly in early season.
But It’s why I tend to stake a bit more modestly on 31+ year old players for example. Ronaldo or Messi may look fun for a run of CL games but… what happens if they do their ACL? All these risks must be factored in when purchasing.
Elsewhere, Salah‘s improvement is looking consistent as per the last few reviews now. I am expecting him to be much more FI relevant this season based on his early numbers.
Thiago is looking great too. Just his second Liverpool game and he was superb. Also got a couple of shots away. Looks very similar to Bayern numbers as expected – nobody was buying Thiago and asking him to do anything different.
If he keeps playing like this and we don’t see him get some huge scores this season holders can count themselves severely unlucky. Great value even now.
He too went down injured after another bad challenge but did complete the match so hopefully for holders that isn’t too bad.
I’m not going to fully recount the Alexander-Arnold story again but even though he’s still in contention for wins he is extremely unlikely to win enough to justify this price, even after the drop.
This is something I talked about in State of the Market this week – now we have seen this bounce back on the market people are obsessing over “previous peaks”.
We should not get blinded by this – players are worth what they are worth – a price dip alone does not make them value necessarily.
Worth noting quickly that Rodriguez continues to look the real deal in this much improved Everton side.
His numbers held up pretty well here even against tough opponents with limited team possession – this is a good sign he can be a consistent challenger.
Chipped in with another assist. Playing like this he should be good for more than just Fantasy Premier League he’ll be useful for traders too.
I have kept faith with Werner as per recent reviews – his underlying numbers were cause for optimism – it was nowhere near as gloomy as many seemed to be making out.
He showed that here with two goals and an assist, sort of. First goal was so powerful and particularly impressive. This adds to his goal and assist for Germany midweek.
Problem? his baseline numbers were half what we’ve seen previously for Chelsea! Had he done this on another day we’d have seen him up there competing.
However Chelsea’s possession was limited here and so Werner didn’t really capitalise on all his efforts – just 148 though they did not win the game.
To be fair if they had that would still have been competitive in the 220 range maybe but with 2 goals we expect better.
And usually – we could expect better.
This ends up being a bit disappointing for holders because most people will look at that and think “Oh – he’s a bad performance player because he scored 2 and didn’t get a big score”.
I do not think that is the correct conclusion – on most matches we have seen Werner would have been well over 260+ with 2 goals+.
Still. You can’t call this a bad game – he’s just going to have to do it again on a day when Chelsea see more possession to start educating traders about his quality. It’s there though for sure.
Another encouraging Havertz performance. To watch he wasn’t perfect and was pushed around a bit but the FI numbers are good.
He’s starting to reach his Leverkusen levels and he’s not far away from big scores here. You can definitely say there are stronger players around for less money but… when you factor in he is still just 21 I don’t think long term holders will be disappointed.
Chilwell a standout good performer again. I felt he was good value before we saw him at Chelsea given the price drop to £1.78 and… even though he is £2.44 to £2.71 now his early performances are justifying that price. Still good value and a solid player.
A big show from Bruno late on steals Star Man yet again.
This is why quality is so much more important than current opinion and sentiment in the long run.
If a player is this good and his numbers are holding up I don’t care much if people are rubbishing them because of a bad game or two – if they are good enough they will drag people back to them and that’s all I care about.
It’s awful trading to get dragged into a panic and sell for a low bid just because you’ve taken social media too seriously.
We can sell if we want – but if we are going to – sell after a win on our terms.
Some players do lack the ability to back up the price and when that is the case that is when you do need to care a lot about what other people think.
Not much to add here – he can do this again and again. If anything the noteworthy thing is that whilst penalties are a big weapon he has consistent open play threat too.
That’s good because it means big scores come more often and I also have a slight nervousness over players who are completely penalty reliant.
Pogba for example – one of the reasons I was wary of him in the past was that he was very penalty reliant and if they get taken away… you are suddenly holding a player that looks very overpriced.
Fernandes is so far ahead of anyone else at United it is not even a contest.
Daniel James was quite good here to be fair – just about in range of a win if he got a matchwinner on a good day.
But his decision making was poor… he just looks not ready. Playing here every week he might, just might be in with a shot.
I used to highlight how utterly reckless this hold was at peak hype for him but after a crash and potentially available under £1 now rather than £3? It’s not terrible if you thought he was getting a run of games.
Rashford made a strong contribution here and as per the recent international scouting I think he is an undervalued player. Remember he is still just 22. He feels almost like a veteran he’s been around so long.
But the best years are likely ahead. We are currently in an odd transition phase on FI where very obvious and popular players like this are available for value.
If you want these big hitting England premiums in your portfolio like Sterling too – I think it is unlikely we’ll have a better chance than now outside of a major injury or other disaster.
De Beek has been surprisingly limited in his minutes but OGS insists he will be getting a chance soon. Especially since his bench appearance here was instrumental in the win.
He’s got potential but we are yet to see enough minutes to really make a judgement. I would expect him to be an occasional challenger possibly 
to – far better than the likes of McTominay and Fred.
And let’s not forget to look out for Telles on debut – he could be good. He’s had a little burst of optimism so far and there is a chance that bigger price gives him too much to do. But if you can get this £1.36 bid I think that’s a reasonable bet.
As ever with a new player – if you are going to buy or hold I would make sure you are watching the first game and reacting quite quickly – traders aren’t patient either way.
What I tend to do here if I want them is start with a modest holding – a “small buy” (if you are new to the site search for my “portfolio clinic” article for more on that).
If they start strong I might add more shares, and if they look ropey early I might drop them sharpish.
I tend to be patient with a player I know a lot about – but a newer player at a new club… I’ll be more twitchy.
5 October
Humiliating result.
It all started so well in classic United fashion – a Bruno penalty seeing them ahead. But they were punished heavily for awful defending and Martial’s early dismissal.
These results matter because that negative sentiment and fear of decline seeps into people’s minds – particularly when the market is in a flap.
There are lots of highly priced United players and they will all take a kicking if this continues.
One bad game.. you can kind of write off. The defeat to Palace and now this looks bad.
Overall though they have won 3 of the last 5 so it’s not all bleak. And this result was with 10 men.
It’s more likely than not that people are overreacting – the narrative too that they failed to get their man in Sancho adds to the cloud over them.
It’s hard to read too much into the stats from this game because they were always on the back foot with 10 men.
On the season overall though – there isn’t a notable decline in the performance stats of key men.
Bruno in particular – his numbers are solid. There’s no reason to panic over him unless you think Manchester United are going to have a truly abysmal season overall. He’s doing his bit and should be as strong as ever when United have better games.
I’d’ say the same for Greenwood except as readers will know I was concerned he was getting very overpriced. I’d be more relaxed with a Bruno because he’s in his prime and can dig his way out of a slump with a win. Greenwood? He needs to cook for a season or two before we can expect regular big scores and it is not a patient market.
Pogba.. suffering hard. But then holding him has been a really poor move for a long time now. This is a poster boy trade for people who failed to adapt to the changes on FI.
Pogba had times when he was hot.
But when he was likely to leave a huge risk opened up which made it a truly terrible hold. Bruno taking his penalties was a nail in the coffin. Both of which traders knew about ages in advance of the drop yet many did nothing and incredibly even bought more in March thinking they’d “just do a quick flip for the transfer”. FI in 2020 isn’t like the old days and you can’t get away with dumb risks anymore. We have to knock it off.
And this is a scenario in which holders got relatively lucky and he stayed in the EPL. They didn’t even hit the worst scenario where he is out of the EPL spotlight for media.
And yet. He can win occasionally he is not a bad player. And whilst quiet now he’s likely to find a reason to get back in the limelight before too long. I wonder whether now might be the best time to pick him up as he gets towards £3. Maybe.
We haven’t seen a great deal of De Beek but he’s doing ok, a goal and assist to his name already. Numbers… if you adjust per minute and take a generous view they are just about good enough.
Jury is still out we need to see another full game when United perform well to see his potential.
Rashford isn’t doing too badly this season. I suspect he is being harshly treated by the market. With an £8+ price in just June and available now for a bid of just £4.50… you can see a notable gulf there that should close up if the current gloom lifts.
He’s still just 22, already competitive on his day and can get better. It is very unlikely there is going to be a better chance to buy popular picks for value than now – so if you want them – this might be the sort of player I’d focus on with current buying.
A decent display from Arsenal and they have shown so far that they are capable of dominating the weaker sides which can put them in contention for performance wins.
It is hard to find targets I actually think are really strong though, Willian aside.
The issue yesterday was that the goals fell to the players who can’t make the most of them.
Saka scored a nice header but the score was a soft 141 for that. This should be no surprise to scouting readers – there is a reason I’ve consistently flagged his weakness and it’s no surprise the price has crashed down to earth.
It’s hard to differentiate now between deserved price drops and undeserved ones with the market the way it is – but this is very much deserved based on an estimation of rational value at his level of ability.
And Pepe bagged the matchwinner but he only played just over 35 minutes so was never winning. Overall though… recent numbers look poor even adjusting them per minute.
He is cheap at £1.58… and a win isn’t impossible. But. I can probably think of 50 players more likely to dig themselves out of a hole with a win than Pepe.
Tierney I was strongly against at peak hype – he was never justifying that £2+ price in the old dividend structure.
With dividends doubled and the bid as low as £1.29… that’s not bad. The overall play is good but there is a lack of end product. Zero threat… soft assist potential.
Historically we know he can score and assist but we aren’t seeing evidence it will happen soon.
Ceballos is very capable of running away with a Gold Day but it will be very occasional with his weak threat. However, on a Bronze Day I could see him winning it without a goal his base is so strong. And unlike last season – winning Bronze Day’s are a worthwhile reward.
I’d call £1.33 to £1.50 decent value.
Willian is likely to be the best performance player at Arsenal by a country mile – although he has gone 4 games without a good chance now.
Still, he is in the right positions and it is very hard to believe a player of this class has a drought for too long.
If Willian hits form he can explode in FI scoring – a sub £1 bid for him right now is insane value.
Gabriel continues to impress at CB. Like I said after his opening goal – it would have been foolish to expect that every week. But these baseline numbers are top drawer and he does get chances occasionally.
He can win on Bronze days with numbers like this too. With the disappointment he didn’t follow up his first big score with another (always likely) he is back down to £1.16 on the Blue Button and does not even have a bid price right now.
£1 or under would be strong value.
Martinelli I’ve had my toxic warning on for a while now and his price is being battered. One of the many reasons these are awful holds is that with a good player who is dropping I have a reason to say “Yeah but that can all change with a win and that looks possible”.
Where as something like this… the chances of him winning and digging himself out of a hole are minimal so I’d have no rational choice but to sell up for a big loss.
Outside of Willian, Nelson and WIllock look the highest potential but both are being blocked for first team action. I wonder if we see a loan move for Nelson today, possibly.
Rare for a newly promoted club to appear on our radars at all in Scouting – outside of a promising transfer prospect or two.
Leeds’ are a little different though and managed yet another good result against City.
How are they doing this? Going toe to toe with City for possession. They really do not change their style for anyone and it’s wonderful to watch.
Will it translate to FI? Games like Sheffield United where they dominated suggest it can. I think the difficulty is that Leeds’ best FI players are not the particularly sexy ones that traders naturally want to buy.
New signing Rodrigo may be surprisingly good. He’s been introduced gradually as is Bielsa’s way but per minute… his numbers look much better than they did at Valencia. He’s worth watching as a potential bargain.
Bamford… incredibly showing the kind of threat we rarely see out of the elite strikers like Lewandowski. Unlucky not to score again here. Hell he could have had two.
There’s a phrase I thought I’d never write. True though and he looks fantastic IPD value as well as a great budget option for Fantasy squads! He won’t be winning performance dividends without a minor miracle, though.
Klich I’ve said before looks strong and for the money… insane value if only for IPD and I also expect him to pop up with a few big scores and he could nick a win or two.
Intriguing is the transfer news and they are being linked with big names.
Cuisance fell through on the medical – back at Bayern for him is good although now he’s upset the hierarchy by wanting out… his future is uncertain but he may end up somewhere like Nice. At any decent performance club I’d consider that him landing on his feet.
The latest is Raphinha from Rennes is on the way and that is very interesting indeed. Regular readers will know I rate Raphinha – and here we may have a genuinely performance suitable player that also has some sex appeal being Brazilian and just 23.
Particularly in this market I don’t think there would be a rush to buy so we can probably evaluate an first game or two. But I’ll be starting optimistic on Raphinha at Leeds if the move gets over the line.
Overall – Leeds are doing great but don’t get too carried away with optimism in this first season. Lacking European competition hurts and they’d need to mount a top 6 challenge to be regular contenders.
Equally – the prices are so low that we don’t need them to win every week – there is a ton of value there even just for IPD and that occasional win.
Well. Who saw this coming? Yikes.
Awful defensive display from Liverpool, with TAA and Gomez at fault.
With freak results like this – it is best to treat it as just that and not over react to just one game. It matters but I tend to view it in context of how they have played overall in the last 5-6.
Does anyone come out of this with any credit? Yes, surprisingly.
Salah‘s much improved numbers were maintained but he added goals this time – which seemed inevitable after his recent threat level.
As per last review – the evidence is strengthening that Salah is a different prospect this season and looking much more competitive in FI scoring.
Jota looked very good too and put up some very competitive numbers and should have scored with his chances. Promising – the only worry is he probably only started in Mané’s absence.
It’s hard to see him as anything but a back up so whilst I think he can nick a win or two… predicting when he may get a run of games seems tricky.
Keita started but was subbed. For his 48 minutes though I have to say these are exceptional midfielder numbers. We know he is capable of that. Playing a full 90 he is likely to deliver some regular big scores and the more we see the more that looks true.
The FI ability is there and the big scores will come, if, and it is an if, he can finally establish in this side and be a regular. If he can, he’ll be a slam dunk bargain. If not… bad short term obviously. But I’d also say that a player of his quality probably lands at a decent club if he doesn’t make it at Liverpool.
These situations are nice because you have on the one hand a huge upside yet for the money even the “bad” outcome is far from the end of the world. Good risk/reward balance.
Robertson had a second excellent game for FI purposes and is probably the only defender that comes out without a blemish.
Strong involvement and another chance to score. Solid value.
Liverpool were poor but you can’t take it away from Villa – they played an incredible game.
They were still possession starved so the baseline numbers in general were not brilliant – however two players punched through anyway on raw output – Grealish and Watkins.
This incredible Grealish display smashed the midfielder dividend late in the match day, heartbreak for Pasalic holders who had put up the kind of total that would win on almost any match day of the year. But not yesterday!
2 goals and 3 assists versus Liverpool? I mean. Not something you can ever predict.
Grealish at Villa is generally an average FI prospect at best.
In expected goals terms.. you have to call him fortunate to get two from the chances he had. Plus everything he produced got finished – 3 assists is the sort of thing you’ll only see once per season.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and call this a freak result that we are unlikely to see again anytime soon. A small consolation for long suffering Grealish holders.
That said, I originally liked Grealish around a year ago before his insane price rise – he does have potential he just needs a better team to realise it. And he should be good for more transfer hype later.
I only went cautious on him when he was flying up to £4-5+ which was a crazy gamble to take. Now at £2.23 to £2.56 – it’s undeniable value once more.
However. Because I don’t expect an immediate win again next week – I would probably let the buzz fade a bit before moving for him in hope of seeing the bid price drift down a bit more.
Elsewhere, Watkins was extremely impressive.
You could say the first and third goals were gifted to him but the second was superbly taken.
The buzzkill is that for all that he only ended up with 199 – which was pretty much always going to be the case.
He looks like a very weak performance player and that’s going to matter eventually.
In the shorter term… if he can keep scoring he could start picking “young and English” hype.
There is no reason he can’t – we’ve got 7 games on him in a Villa shirt and he’s looked like scoring every time.
Interesting option. Probably for IPD alone you could justify his £1.41-£1.67 so if you get more than that it’s a bonus. Hype buys are fickle friends though – it’s one that could go very well or very badly.
Barkley was thrown straight on after his loan move. This is one to watch with interest since given the chance – in a Chelsea shirt anyway – he is/would have been one of the best FI performers in the EPL.
Yet, nobody can win if they aren’t playing and there’s no doubt he also struggled with general issues of “sentiment.” Which do matter.
He got the goal… like Grealish’s first it was a heavy deflection on the sort of day where every bounce went against Liverpool (though they made their own bad luck in many ways).
There is a lot to like in his first game for Villa and it’s a perfect playing position for him just behind the striker.
I think he can do some damage from there even at Villa – although we need more games to say for sure.
Despite the scoreline Villa were possession starved and Barkley can’t shine in that scenario.
Villa have tough games ahead but towards the end of November things ease up. If we see Villa dominate a game or two Barkley could surprise a few people.
4 October
Big score from debutant Chilwell – I’ve said a couple of times this month and just 3 days ago actually how he has become great value and was showing numbers that suggested he could win.
And he did, in some style too.
This is what Scouting is all about – picking out players when they are great value before they win – but good trading doesn’t end with the first win holders now have to decide what to do with them.
In my 15th September review I said on Chilwell:
“he comes in at a reasonable £1.78-£1.92 and is likely to be better or at least as capable as Reece James.”
£2.01 or up to £2.36 now, the bid dropping a bit as there is still that general market nervousness right now… and I think that 5x IPD promotion has created bad habits – a fear that you have to be first out or you’ll lose out. It’s nowhere near as bad as it was last week and it should fade but that behaviour is lingering.
Often, a winning player like this would rise quickly out of value range but in this nervous market I think £2.01 to £2.36 remains very reasonable. Especially, switching to my “Market Value” style thinking now… Reece James is £3+ and people use that as a mental price anchor as they are similar.
I think Chilwell is going to be slightly better than James if anything. So that’s another reason I’d get comfortable with Chilwell’s price.
The thing is… he isn’t going to be winning every week. He is a good player and I do expect consistent challenges over the season, but holders are lucky that he put in one of his best possible performances early.
If the price had rocketed, I may consider coming out to let the price settle. As it is… I see no reason to do that he’s a solid hold at this price and we should see consistent challenges from him on these numbers,
I have him at for potential, which means I expect around 7-8 decent scores out of him in a season. If we see his numbers so far become consistent, that might be a touch pessimistic. But not that much.
Elsewhere… Jorginho – unlucky to miss out to a James. I’ve said before that he is an underrated player and this will almost certainly not be the last big score we see from him this season. As long as he retains penalties, and he should, he’s a bargain for a patient trader.
Hudson-Odoi is getting chances and he’s doing ok. His numbers continue to be good overall, and very consistent now. His last 4 games in all competitions show promising stuff.
It’s really just about team selection and whether he can put up a performance that catapults him from rotation option to first team.
I like him – the price is right now and if he doesn’t make it at Chelsea he should have no shortage of suitors… Bayern an intriguing option.
Havertz... much better in the last 3 than his weak opening game. No threat this time but that was solid vs WBA and Barnsley. Seems to be settling.
As ever it’s always a risk holding hyped players into a new club because a lack of instant impact is going to hurt. However, with much of that damage done and these numbers promising, I suspect patience will get rewarded here in the end.
Werner… probably his worst game to watch and the mood is turning sour on him now. Not just on FI.
I don’t take it too seriously but I do note how the mass sales of him in the Fantasy game to bleed into the sentiment on FI – even though it’s totally different.
However. Stepping back and looking at this objectively.. he’s £3.78 on a bid or up to £4.82 on the Blue Button.
Looking at his numbers for Chelsea over all 5 games so far… there really is only reason for optimism despite only seeing one goal so far.
Certainly in the last 3 – he’s putting up excellent numbers for a forward and with his chances… he really should have 2-3 goals not just 1.
I would keep faith if holding – despite all the chatter – the background numbers remain good and he’s capable of a win.
The prophecy comes true. Last review 3 days ago I said Everton were looking good and James Rodriguez was the best of it. I added him to my Explosion Imminent list – and he delivered Star Man in style!
Although. Holders have to feel fortunate that he actually took the Star Man lead from Chilwell when he wasn’t actually on the pitch!
That late Brighton consolation goal handed the match winner to James – demonstrating if we needed it that no matter how much analysis we do we still need a big slice of luck on the day.
However – if we keep stacking the odds in our favour by picking the highest quality players – we’re going to end up “luckier” than most.
What’s also quite nice to see is a player here holding onto a fair chunk of his price rise – a little better than during 5x IPD where it was up and then straight back down.
We’re not yet back to the day where a win sends the price soaring, but we should get there the more the spreads close up over time.
Can James keep winning? Absolutely. Every week? Nah. I think he more than deserves his price though and I’d be very happy to hold him longer.
1 October
Interesting stuff in the Cup vs Spurs.
Werner bagged his first goal. And the overall performance was excellent. The mood has been down on him due to a lack of immediate returns – even things like him being mass sold in Fantasy football has a psychological impact on FI.
But I disagreed because whilst he had no goals his threat was definitely there and the underlying numbers are solid.
I am fairly relaxed on a striker not scoring for a few games as long as they are getting chances and we know that historically they can put them away. When that’s true – it’s usually a matter of time before the goals flow.
I’m quietly confident on Werner – he’s got the numbers here to make a real FI impact in a way that someone like Abraham was just never going to.
Chilwell made his debut. As per last review he is a player I have long considered overpriced but more recently – circumstances have changed.
The price has crashed and he’s much closer to real success at Chelsea. We only saw just over 60 minutes but he’s produced the solid numbers I’d expect.
I think he’s a good choice and I’d at least expect him to be as good at Reece James for a fraction of the current price.
Good display too from Hudson-Odoi – he should have earned himself more minutes unless he hits one of these outlandish Bayern/Manchester United rumours – which holders would very much enjoy!
I’m more considering his prospects at Chelsea but anything like that would be a bonus. The numbers are strong here and he could have scored. All round game is solid too.
I’ve really warmed to him in recent months and the more I see him play – the more right I think that is.
It shows how things change on FI – if you roll back to the Scouting archive and see my withering reviews on Hudson-Odoi and Chilwell around this time last year… I thought it would be a long time before I’d consider them good choices.
But things do change and after price collapses for both as hype faded they look strong prospects once more.
As for Barkley, the loan to Villa… well it has to be considered bad news. He’ll see more pitch time but the ideal outcome was for Barkley to punch through at Chelsea finally.
With a traditional football brain you’d go “Barkley, eww” but FI is a little different and the fact is he was Chelsea’s best performance player by a mile when on the pitch. In fact one of the best performance players overall – if on the pitch. Which always made him worth watching as he hit spells of form.
At Villa… he may actually be strong enough to punch through but it’s a tough ask at that club. 79p to 93p is very reasonable though and he is still just 26. I’d keep an eye on that and it’s worth remembering how strong he is for FI scoring.
And we can probably expect the same of Loftus-Cheek who has a similar story. Potentially an excellent FI player with an amazing trend fit. But he’s just not wanted by Lampard it seems. And if you aren’t going to play it won’t count for anything.
Again – genuine potential so wherever he goes he will be worth monitoring he is still young.
First City goal for Ferran Torres – with an encouraging all round display to back it up. Added an assist, too.
Encouraging. In pre-season I was 50/50 on him as whilst he had appeal he also came with a fat price tag not far off £3.
In this market turbulence he is potentially available under £2 on the bid and I think that is much more attractive – especially since we’ve seen him get some decent minutes and perform well.
He is capable of challenging for wins when starting.
Sterling ended his drought with 2 goals. Never the best performance player but he’ll have his big days and I think traders have been too negative on him in recent months.
For a player as popular as Sterling seeing him under £5 is a surprise – and probably something we will not see again for a very long time once this current gloom lifts.
If you want to stock up on players this well known – you have to do it when they are down.
Looking the real deal and early candidates for “most improved team”.
James Rodriguez excellent again in terms of the all round game and there is little doubt his baselines will be solid. Holders will want to see a few more good chances but I’m nitpicking – he has a goal and he could have had another versus Palace.
We’ve seen 160’s and a 201 score so far – there is a good chance we see him breaching 250 before long and Everton still have a kind run of fixtures ahead.
Richarlison is in hot form with 4 goals in 2 now. He is a capable winner on his day and it’s more evidence he’s a beneficiary of this improved Everton side.
Calvert-Lewin I like a lot less for performance purposes. Despite the glut of goals and great displays it’s unlikely to do a great deal on FI outside of hatricks and for IPD.
That’s not nothing but you can buy IPD goals a lot cheaper than £2.25+. There has been moments where I’ve liked him, I recall in the build up to Christmas last year as a good time. But I think right now too much attention is on him and he is best left in your Fantasy team rather than in an FI portfolio.
2 November
Relative unknown Tello won Star Player – something of a spoiler on a day when FI mainly needed a morale boosting popular winner.
I say spoiler win because… well there are few real reasons you could go for this player.
Heavily rotated at a mid-tier side. Decent threat but there are better IPD options.
Sometimes the underdog just has a good day and it’s good for FI who will have to pay out very little! Bad for most traders. It happens from time to time. Most of the time the stronger players tend to come through though.
With a more long term view you might look at Fekir. He’s been quiet and is a forgotten man at a rock bottom 75p now. What might have been, had Liverpool not pulled the plug on the deal, or if he had not chosen to go to a smaller club?
Numbers lately are actually good. Has not scored in 6 games but he could have had 3-4 with these chances. And he’s got the baselines to win when the goals go in.
You also have a reasonable chance a bigger club take a chance on him he is only 27. An interesting pick for the patient trader and this price makes it appealing.
Comfortable 4-1 win although not quite as one sided as that suggests, Sociedad are capable of dominating possession more.
David Silva looked good, netting his first goal. Possibly a bit unlucky that this goal wasn’t the matchwinner in the end and fell on one of his softer days for scoring overall.
He’s a capable winner, Sociedad have kind fixtures including in the Europa and he’s only 48p on a bid potentially.
Oyarzabal is in great form too. Another goal here in just one half. His numbers are a little soft but he’s scoring plenty and is likely to get a big transfer rumour again before long. Could also feature again for Spain in the upcoming internationals.
For £2.15 to £2.38 I think he’s a solid pick.
A notable start for youngster Barrenetxea too. Hasn’t had a chance to speak of in the last 5 appearances really. But he’s a well regarded talent and it will be interesting to see if he can start more games.
He’s sparked to life before after having a quiet spell and if he did he’d be the sort of player that traders were interested in.
1 November
Hazard gets the plaudits – a really good first start back for him – magical goal to get break down a stubborn Huesca defence. And then the game was easy from there.
Was subbed off on 60 as he makes his way back. But he looked sharp.
Decent numbers overall but punished for offsides, fouls and a big chance missed. Something of a theme of the week for some big hitters.
Probably about the best a holder could hope for on a first start back after so long out.
Make or break time for Hazard – but there is a decent chance he could prove himself very undervalued if he stays fit and keeps playing like this.
Not a great game for Asensio but it’s another start at least. Just lacked the big threat we saw from him in midweek vs Gladbach. Progressing well recently and seeing plenty of minutes.
Isco makes it on from the bench – something of a forgotten man. But he’s a good FI player given the right role and still just 28.
With the transfer window rolling around he is worth a look – EPL rumours already surfacing including to Everton which these days is no bad move. Just 79p and until recently was a real star. Wouldn’t take a great deal to get him going on the market again.
Felix has been improving of late as noted here and in the midweek CL review.
What was surprising was that he got quite an obvious bounce on the market yesterday after the goals.
So fast in fact it looks like a trading group or whale decided they were keen.
Possibly sparked by him taking a penalty? Or maybe the second brace in two games.
They may have ended up disappointed because despite adding a second goal he’s only ended up with 214 including the matchwinner.
This is pretty much the best day you get for him so… it makes it hard to see him regularly beating other competitive scores. He did midweek but he also needed a bit of luck to overcome Thuram.
My view remains the same really – this spell of form is good for stabilising the price – but expecting consistent wins from here would be too optimistic.
One thing I mentioned recently though is that with these wonderkids – people are desperate to love them if they have half an excuse. So that can be taken advantage of if you get one when they are down.
Overall though I wouldn’t get optimistic on this unless there was a credible transfer rumour for next Summer.
Another stumble for Barcelona as the hot and cold form of the La Liga giants continues.
Honestly though – it’s a miracle they didn’t win this game. They could have scored 5-6 on another day. And there could have been some monstrous performance scores from it.
Griezmann, perhaps incredibly, got his first goal of the La Liga campaign. And what a great finish it was.
Should have more to his name with the chances he gets. Builds on a good midweek display against Juventus.
Having a dire time on the market but he’s doing enough to stay in contention on the pitch. On a good day for Barcelona where he scores he can win. And soft fixtures are ahead.
I quite like it for the money as something of a shot to nothing. For an incredible £1.13 now – you’d think he either improves at Barcelona or moves on at the season end.
It would suit neither him or the club for him to become an expensive squad player next season. And you have Euro 2020 to fall back on too where he will be one of the best performance prospects around for France.
Messi was a monster with 10 efforts on goal. As I’ve said holders will want regular reassurance he is staying consistent. There is very little doubt that more big scores are coming from him when he plays the way he has in the last 3-4 games. Those early worries of Koeman hurting his chances can be put to bed.
New signing Trincao did very well in just one half coming on as a sub. As a forward he has baselines that could compete even in midfield. This builds on a good appearance in the CL vs Ferencvaros.
Watch him if given a full game – we have a genuine contender. No bid price right now either, could be a steal.
Fati generally considered to have an off game. You are going to get inconsistency with youngsters. But his FI relevant numbers held up just fine.
Basically astounding that he is able to do this so young and he is a regular competitor alraedy, probably needs bumping to in my ratings since Koeman is so comfortable playing youth.
The only real issue is that you just pay too much for it in my opinion. But I’d be far more comfortable holding this than other highly priced youngsters who don’t show anything like the quality.
26 October
Sociedad now perhaps incredibly top La Liga with both Real and Barcelona faltering.
David Silva is inspiring them. 2 assists here. Had a decent chance himself that he skied – we know he is capable of finishing though. Not to be counted out and looks a good veteran punt for this busy fixture period as I said midweek.
Oyarzabal challenged strongly for the forward dividend but was just short. 2 goals including the matchwinner. He’s not a brilliant performance player so it’s not unexpected.
But he’s still a pick I’ve liked generally because the hype for his transfer is pretty predictable. And whilst he may not have won here he’s in the kind of form that will fuel those big transfer rumours.
£2.27 best case on a bid now… not quite as good as it was but with Sociedad in this form with decent fixtures and the transfer window approaching I’d still stay yes.
25 October
A surprising result given how poor Real have been recently. They have been so unpredictable this season in both team selection and form.
Probably Kroos’s best performance of the season so far both in reality and in FI terms. So close to sweeping not just top midfielder but probably Star Player overall. Dominated the game and had a golden chance to score.
A quiet spell but he’s so close to putting up some more monstrous scores and patient holders are likely to be rewarded.
Asensio holders can be encouraged by the second consecutive start and he completed almost the full game. The bad news is he was very quiet. Didn’t play badly and Real focused passing on the opposite flank which did not help him.
Remains a very high potential player but is yet to fully find his stride. Not far away though all he needs is that one goal.
I’ve been optimistic on Vinicius since pre-season. We have not yet seen an explosion but he put in another good performance here.
He’s only really showing consistency the more we see of him – yet holders are getting bored because of a lack of immediate impact. The more the price drops the more attractive it looks.
Ramos superb again both in terms of the overall performance as well as for the penalty. One of the few defenders who can consistently get themselves head and shoulders above the pack.
£1.53 to £1.73 reflects that. It’s a high risk high reward option because that expiring contract at the end of the season is a cause for stress. The further into the season we get without a new deal the riskier this gets. But it could pay off.
Results like this add pressure. It’s too early to say Koeman is under pressure but early optimism is taking a dent after losses to Getafe and now Madrid.
In FI terms though they have lots of high potential options available at value.
This wasn’t a bad display and had a few VAR decisions gone the other way it could have been a different result.
Coutinho was really good again – definitely the biggest beneficiary of Koeman who is showing faith in him. And Coutinho is rewarding that faith with consistent good displays now.
5 shots here and good quality chances amongst them – and he had high levels of involvement.
Looking like one of the very best FI midfielders consistently – he’s on my explosion imminent list for a reason. £1.98 to £2.36 looks a steal.
Messi holders can breath a little easier after two decent games in a row now. There were doubts over his involvement and/or threat at times under Koeman.
But we are seeing his usual excellent level come through in the last two matches.
That’s good for holders because at his age he will need to demonstrate consistent results to maintain his price. On this evidence he should do.
Things look tougher and tougher for Griezmann – benched here. May turn out to be the best thing for him as covered recently. If he is frozen out it could stoke those transfer rumours and somewhere like PSG could be a fantastic platform.
Griezmann has high FI potential but hopes of that ever appearing at Barcelona have faded fast. He just has not improved the same way Coutinho has. A different prospect for France though as per the Euro 2020 section.
Another goal for Fati and that price is really cranking up now. Actually his overall numbers are pretty poor here though to watch he had a good game.
Hmmm. If holding I’d be getting a bit stressed about this price now as it creeps up. That adds pressure. And he may not be able to hide behind limited minutes much longer if he keeps progressing this fast.
He is a capable winner but whether he can be consistent enough to keep people interested for this money? It’s a question mark.
However… traders are sticky on a small number of wonderkids that look the real deal. A bit like Mbappé. So holders might be able to push it a further.
I’ve been optimistic on Dest since his move and he is not disappointing. Given the nod ahead of Roberto for El Clasico – that’s a big vote of confidence from Koeman.
He played well generally. FI numbers not spectacular here but it was a tough match. In his previous 2 he’s shown really promising stuff.
Actually dropping a bit as the impatient/hype buyers come out. £1.37 looks good value.
19 October
Parejo is back on top of the leaderboard with a Star Man. Veterans will remember him well as an FI powerhouse.
This is an interesting trade to look at when considering how to manage this sort of punt pick or irregular winner.
Since he joined Villarreal I’ve had him pegged in scouting as something of a punt pick. It was clear that he was capable of 250+ scores occasionally, but without penalties which have gone to Moreno, he was displaying almost zero goal threat.
Yet, we knew historically he can have an occasional long range effort go in even without penalties.
Yesterday, he did just that. It’s really the first time he’s looked like scoring in 10 games since he joined Villarreal. So it’s a hard thing to bet on happening – but not impossible.
What does this tell us?
It means we can expect further big scores over the season from Parejo – but we should not be expecting it to happen again next week.
Statistically speaking, we are likely to go 5-10 games without hearing much from him again unless there is a very sudden and consistent improvement in his goal threat.
Given 10 games is better evidence than just 1 – I would say it is more likely this goal was more a rare event than something we should expect week in week out.
We can keep that under review. If he goes on to look a danger in the next 2-3 games? We might want to change our minds. But I tend to avoid reading too much into just 1 good or bad game.
So what does this mean for trading?
It means that piling into an irregular winner after his win is likely to be a very, very poor move.
It shows that trader is unaware that this win is unlikely to come again soon. Of course it might… it’s just not very likely and we are trying to put the odds on our side not work against them.
If we want to bet on punts or irregular winners – we have do it before he puts up a big score or wins. Without reassurance from social media, price rises, or wins.
Our reassurance comes from the fact he was cheap and capable of an occasional 250+ score. If you are going to buy this sort of player – that’s the only evidence your going to get if you want the best price.
That big score has happened though. And we can’t reasonably expect another for a while.
So a good trader will likely cash this out after the rise. Why?
It’s not that Parejo isn’t rationally worth £1.42 to £1.56 – you can definitely make a case for that.
But think of the type of person who either immediately buys Parejo after a win or unlists him when they were previously planning to sell.
Are they the type who is hanging in if Parejo doesn’t win next week or the next? I wouldn’t bet my money on it. They are not likely to be patient people.
Rather – I’d cash this out and then if that price dip comes we may consider punting on him again when the hype fades.
And, if Parejo beats the odds and he does turn up and win again next week? Fair enough we’ll have to accept that – we’ll still have made the correct decision even if it didn’t come off.
He may show up with a big score again next week – but we know statistically it is unlikely and therefore it is best to trade as if it won’t – putting the odds on our side.
That’s my general thinking on occasional winners/punt picks.
There is one complicating factor in this particular situation – Parejo happens to have 3 very juicy fixtures up next.
This is the fairly basic sort of link many can be expected to make “Oh he’s just won and there are 3 easy fixtures – guys this is a no brainer!”.
So it may be that we could hold not in expectation of further wins, but in expectations of this basic thinking from others ahead of this kind run of games.
A confident trader might try to juice a little more out of that, perhaps holding up to the Sivasspor game and cashing out before.. or perhaps you let that game run and think about cashing out before the Cadiz game.
If in doubt – I’d cash this out.
But I’ve gone into this extra factor to show that there are no “rules” that always apply. It may be a good general concept to cash out occasional winners after the win – but if you are a confident trader and think you can squeeze a little more out of it due to the circumstances we shouldn’t be afraid to do it.
18 October
Oh dear. Imagine losing at home to newly promoted Cadiz. Yikes.
Real Madrid have won ugly so far this season. Not really hitting great heights but getting the job done. Team selections have been erratic too.
It’s all a little concerning and they aren’t quite the powerhouse they were.
A home tie vs Shakhtar midweek is a good chance to reassert themselves so I wouldn’t panic yet. But we need to see an improvement in the coming games if we are going to keep believing that Real are a really strong club for FI purposes.
Ironically, this was probably their best game of the season when it comes to producing strong performance scores. Or it would be, had they won. They were just shy of 75% possession and you can do a lot with that.
4 halftime substitutions (!) also make it even harder to judge performances.
Kroos started after having limited pitch time recently with a muscle injury.
He’s really quiet by his standards at the moment but there is no reason he can’t explode again – he’s doing the right things. He was particularly strong for Germany midweek.
I think holders can afford some patience with him. If the goal drought goes on another month or two I might start stressing.
Vinicius wasn’t far away from a goal. I’m optimistic on him in general provided Real improve.
Per minute Asensio‘s involvement for a forward continues to be top drawer. What we are not seeing right now is threat and that’s unusual for him.
Yet, he’s a whisker away from blowing FI scoring away and all he needs is a full game and a goal.
I’m remaining patient with him – the upside is potentially huge.
Strangely, we still don’t really know much more about Real than we did in the pre-season preview.
They have just been too inconsistent to pin down so far.
We know who the best FI players are it’s just a question of whether Zidane will be more consistent in selection and get them playing more convincingly.
Another La Liga giant falls to defeat.
I have learned not to undereestimate Getafe. It’s easy to mistake them for another weak La Liga farmers team if you don’t know the league very well but they are a tough nut to crack.
Griezmann was poor. Incredible how the same man can be so good for France and yet so poor for his club in the same week.
After looking good in the middle for France Koeman let him start in the middle at least initially. Didn’t play well though.
His FI numbers are actually solid and had he not fluffed a 1v1 with the keeper the match reports may be telling a very different story.
Holders have to be getting less optimistic he can turn it around at Camp Nou – he just has not significantly improved under Koeman as hoped.
Running out of chances but in trading terms that may not be a bad thing. If he gets transferred he could land somewhere very appealling. I think PSG would be the dream destination and it’s credible. Or the EPL is possible too, maybe.
In trading we need to think sometimes less about “will he win next week” and more “what are the possible outcomes?”.
If he were to improve at Barcelona holders are happy. If he doesn’t he probably gets transfer rumours and holders are likely to be happy.
A bad transfer rumour is possible but for a player of his calibre? Not likely. And you have Euros to fall back on too. All up, I still like it as a trade even though hopes of a big turnaround under the new manager are fading fast.
There are some more positive stories.
Dembelé made his first start in 325 days. He was rusty but that can be forgiven. Overall, it was a solid display he can build on.
Baseline numbers were strong and if we see him returning to something like his usual threat levels he could be a total steal at that £1.50 bid or close to it.
Pedri, not yet on FI, is just 17 and was given a chance. Played well and did not look out of his depth at all. Definitely one to look out for at IPO the only issue may be overhype making him an unviable opening price.
Dest on full debut. Lovely, despite being on a side he isn’t natural on due to Alba’s injury he held up well. Nearly bagged a first assist and saw plenty of the ball in attacking areas.
About as good as holders can really ask for and £1.23 or close to that bid looks really strong value.
Coutinho was likely just rested after internationals and with a big fixture period ahead. He came on from the bench.
Holders do not need to worry as to whether he has improved – he’s looking superb.
Messi was close to a goal but… his usual strong involvement numbers were way off his usual high standards.
In other games under Koeman it has been the opposite – high involvement but soft threat.
So it’s too early to judge whether he has really improved or declined under Koeman.
He could easily turn up next week and blow the competition away.
But I would say that at this age he needs to be convincing week in week out to keep people interested. And he is not so far.
If holding and there was no explosion soon… I’d be getting nervous.
5 October
An unsettled Real at the moment – going into the game with a raft of injuries including Carvajal, Kroos, Hazard and Odriozola.
Despite that, they are grinding out results this season.
Vinicius scored a lovely goal. And I’m generally very happy with his numbers per minute. He’s justifying my optimism on him in recent months.
However being hooked off on 68 minutes and losing points for big chances missed blunts his score – we want to be doing better than 139 with a goal.
He can though. I like him and especially if this bid of under £2 is actually possible to get it’s solid.
Asensio did a lot right and for a forward his baselines are stellar. 3 key passes too and the assist potential is excellent. In the last 3 appearances though we haven’t seen his usual goal threat which is a disappointment.
It was a good game for him though and he contributed a lot – so he may earn more minutes.
As per the pre-season preview – an established Asensio playing week in week out is likely to dominate FI scoring. The tricky bit is getting there. It’s hard to make any decisive conclusion either way so far.
With all the rotation and injuries it’s stalwart Benzema who looks the most reliable. Another goal here. And the kind of numbers that can also deliver performance wins outright. Clear value at around £1. Make the most of these in early season because it gets more difficult later.
Barcelona’s first blip under Koeman. Not a bad performance by any means and a draw is no disaster – but not quite on the level of their previous comfortable wins this season.
A teamsheet may tell you Messi was a centre forward but the heatmap says different – he’s central midfield much of the time.
Still looking strong but not up to his usual high standards in the last two games. The threat has dropped off markedly – this is something to watch. If Koeman drops him deeper to dictate play more in the middle his attacking output may drop off.
I’m likely reading too much into just two games but early on with a new coach we have to be a little sensitive. Especially with an older player who relies very much on delivering in the here and now.
He could easily score 300+ in the next game and just do Messi things – but I’ll be monitoring the next games closely – he needs to improve his threat.
I’m very impressed with Coutinho and he’s justfifying my confidence in him. He’s putting in performances that make him hard to drop and the picture looks so much better than just a few short weeks ago when we didn’t even know if he’d make the team.
Overall FI numbers are great and he scored a nice goal here too. I’m confident in this one. If he keeps playing he will almost certainly deliver the big scores. The only thing that derails him is another period on the sidelines which seems unlikely in this form.
Griezmann is not quite so convincing – he was another potential beneficiary of the Koeman reign. So far, it is not looking good. He had chances here that he did not put away.
In pre-season, and for France too, he was showing again the amazing stats that have always made me optimistic on his potential.
But in the opening 3 games for Barcelona there really isn’t much to grab onto. And the performances aren’t great either. You have to wonder whether with Depay apparently coming in and Fati playing well he may struggle for starts before long. And yet.. should a holder Instant Sell him for £1.28?
I mean. No, I’d say not. It’s just too low and if he doesn’t make it at Barcelona the likelihood is goes somewhere else decent he has years ahead of him.
Trincao is getting a decent chance so far and he had another 35 minutes here. Played pretty well, could have won the game late on but he didn’t convert a 1 on 1 with the keeper, though it was a tough angle and under pressure.
I like what I see. Given a full game he is capable of a performance challenge. Certainly on this current £1.50 bid now that’s a great pick up. I’d be content to pay the Blue Button £2 really.
Alba was very consistent again (which is a good thing as he has been playing really well). However, he pulled up injured on 75 minutes and he’s done his hamstring with recovery date. It’s the international break so maybe that gives him a chance to recover in time.
If not though.. enter Sergino Dest – new signing from Ajax who will get an early chance to show his ability.
He played 20 minutes here and looked good so far. Historically as well, FI traders are going to like his numbers.
It’s hard to descirbe it as more than a punt at this stage – we need more minutes. But I’d be quietly confident and especially if you can get him on a £1.22 bid that’s one of the better punts.
He should get minutes… even with Alba fit Roberto’s place in the side is shaky and Dest should take it. Koeman likes attacking full backs just as much as FI traders.
Finally – no start for Pjanic yet… but he’s one to watch and could show himself to be very underestimated.
4 October
A win for Oyarzabal.
Last review I said I liked him as a transfer pick at the price but given it wasn’t overly likely he would win… it might be better to wait a month or so. Well. Damnit!
He is lucky to nick a gold day with a score of just 200 though. Goal and assist to get there too which isn’t great.
I still like him as a longer term pick but I would not expect continued dividend wins from Sociedad.
The £1.61 to £1.93 price though is good value for a patient trader, especially if closer to the lower end of that range.
2 November
#justice4barrow
Football Index just confirmed that Barrow should have been the winner on Saturday. Here is the link.
Nice – as per the review yesterday he’s a player I rate. I doubt it will be the last win we see from him.
Napoli have been in decent form but Sassuolo outplayed them here.
Some good performances though from an FI perspective.
Fabian Ruiz is a frustrating player – always just a matchwinner away from a huge score. And he gets chances. But they have not been going in.
Still a good pick given the potential transfer to a bigger club and the fact he is capable of a 250-300 score on his day. But no doubt he is a frustrating hold.
If they don’t look close to winning they are easy to drop but players like this who threaten a win without delivering are difficult. That’s why having that transfer reason as the backup is important here.
Politano impressive again as per recent reviews. In great form and seeing more minutes. A contender at a bargain price.
Osimhen looked deadly yesterday. 8 efforts on goal – a real wonder he did not score. Atrocious performance numbers as usual but with the price dipping to £1.37 now potentially on a bid that’s becoming value.
Could easily explode in one of these soft European games up next. And he looks consistent for IPD in general.
You could also punt on Mertens who looks good too.
Lozano‘s burst of goals in early season is increasingly looking like a flash in the pan, though. Getting some chances but not many and I doubt it would result in a big score even if he did get a goal.
Talisman Insigne was sidelined but fortunately it looks like that injury is not too bad – he’s being assessed day to day and could be back either midweek or next weekend for Bologna.
Locatelli came closest to a win, netting the penalty and finishing on 211 with a matchwinner.
I’ve liked him for a long time as a budget pick. Nice to see him close but I’m a little disappointed he didn’t get closer to 250.
He was only 6 points short of winning in midfield and 2 fouls and a yellow card cost him dear.
Still, it shows why I like him as a 22 year old player at the £1 to £1.27 mark. Can win on his day and could get a decent transfer.
Good to see Boga back starting. Bang average numbers actually – well below his best. But it was a tough game vs Napoli and he is working his way back to full fitness.
I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now – I rate him as per previous reviews and I’ll be watching him closely as he returns to action.
Eventful game and despite the 4-1 scoreline Juventus did not dominate minnows Spezia.
Dybala had a poor game after his brilliant showing last weekend. Per minute his numbers are fine but his problem, as always, is staying on the pitch.
Subbed off on 56 minutes here and to be fair – this time he can’t really complain – he was wasteful.
At what point does he just get fed up and leave? Possibly next summer. Whether he settles at Juventus or goes I’d stay optimistic for him. He can blow up and get a big score anytime and at any big club like Real Madrid which is the latest rumour there would be optimism. Also gets EPL links.
But really I’d just like to see him play more at Juventus because he can win in the here and now. I’m still optimistic on him but this is a bad game. Numbers last weekend were phenomenal though.
22 year old USA international Weston McKennie impressed – setting up Morata though he really could have just finished himself. Will have impressed fans and was arguably the best player for Juventus in the first half.
FI numbers actually not great here but over the season to date, per minute, his numbers are extremely promising. And he gets chances to add to those big baselines.
Impressive stuff and a potential bargain at 52p to 80p.
Chiesa continues to impress fans too. Really good start to his Juventus career. Added an assist. Had a couple of decent efforts of his own. Good stuff and he’s cheap for what you get. Capable of more too based on his Fiorentina numbers. As team mates trust him more we see him grow.
Never any doubt who would be the star of the show though as Ronaldo makes his return from covid. Instant impact with two goals to dig Juventus out of what could have been an embarassing draw.
A bit like Zlatan in the Milan review below – he could pay off handsomely but at his age if he hits that big injury or some kind of bad luck you might be in trouble. Could pay off though.
Another player winning over fans is Morata. Sensational performance, really. As with midweek where he had 3 goals ruled out, he had another ruled out here.
But then he quickly made up for it, tucking away McKennie’s pass across goal. He didn’t even celebrate because his last 4 had been disallowed, I’m not sure he believed he had finally scored! But it did count.
Also set up Ronaldo with an assist. Great all round contribution. Superb.
It’s one of those IPD striker picks where I can’t think of a real reason you wouldn’t just go for this. He looks like scoring so consistently and he costs just 71p to 80p.
The IPD alone is worth it and at Juventus he has improved as a performance prospect – he may sneak a win or two.
And in this form he solves Spain’s striking problem most likely. What’s not to like for this money?
Spinazzola nets the defender dividend. He is very attacking and whilst this is his first goal of the campaign he could have had a couple more.
Gets a lot of touches in the box so it is possible to see this goal coming. He’s dropped on the matchwinner which is fortunate because without that he’d struggle – his overall numbers are not that great.
That’s why I have tended not to go for him – he needs more than just a goal – it likely has to be the matchwinner. Plus at 27 it’s unlikely to excite many the market is currently favouring more well known options – provided they see them win.
Still… a decent punt pick and Roma do have that kind group in Europe as per the Europa articles. No real reason he couldn’t make the most of that.
For those kind fixtures Veretout looked dangerous here, as did Mkhitaryan, Pedro and Dzeko which could all be valid punts although won’t excite the market a great deal.
Dzeko looks in lethal form though if he plays – he’s only come on as a sub in the Europa so far. But if you saw him starting he’d be worth a punt.
Pedro too is capable of some really big scores and is in good form, scoring again here.
With these though we really are just talking short term punts.
Carles Perez is more interesting longer term as a younger player formerly of Barcelona and I consider him the best youth option at Roma.
Yet another win for Milan – a great season so far – they may even challenge for the title.
I started optimistic for Milan this season – especially given they would have European involvement this year. But they are exceeding even those expectations.
Their key man is still Calhanoglu. He’s been quiet lately but his numbers are holding up here. Not his best game to watch but probably his best FI numbers in a while.
For a holder it seems an easy decision to keep faith with him the big scores are likely even if he’s been frustrating a bit lately.
Theo Hernandez is consistent too. No real chances this game but he’s getting in the box consistently. No sign of any decline and I think he’s well worth anything close to that £2.38 bid.
Rafeal Leao has definitely improved of late and is seeing more pitch time. This was not his best game. He did really well midweek vs Sparta Prague though and had he played the full game he could have won.
I’d be happy just to see him playing more really – £1.21 on a bid now is a good pick up for a patient trader.
Zlatan remains a beast, on the scoresheet again here. What an incredible human.
Looks like scoring 1-2 every game and the appeal is clearly there for a 69p price tag.
The only real barrier is the fear of that lengthy injury which could leave you lumbered with a player you are never selling. One for the brave.
Worth flagging another exceptional score from De Paul – 186 when losing the game.
He’s a bit of a marvel. The usual rule is that if you ain’t winning games you ain’t scoring big. But De Paul defies that.
He’s still not likely to win if they lose of course. But when Udinese do win he is well capable of some monstrous 250-300 scores.
And… it makes you wonder what he could be capable of at a bigger side. He does get frequent links.
Remains a great pick up at £2.09 in my view. Just exceptionally well suited to the FI scoring matrix.
1 November
Similar theme to midweek in the CL – a poor result for Inter but they dominated and it showcases some lovely performance numbers.
Eriksen started again, not a bad display but not great I doubt he has done much to change Conte’s mind. Still, for FI purposes the numbers are decent per minute.
Story hasn’t really changed – he’s a contender when he plays but he’d need more consistent minutes.
Kolarov was a monster here. Over 100 passes, an assist, and 3 long range efforts. 34 years old so not going to be to everyone’s taste. But a very valid punt. His best performance yet for Inter. 241 score without a goal.
Hakimi is much more attractive in terms of profile but struggling for FI numbers. Had some good chances to score here.. but I wonder whether eevn a matchwinner would have really made him competitive.
As per reviews recently – whilst Hakimi is in range of a win he’s not looking anywhere like as dominant as he did at Dortmund. And when you have a £3+ price tag that is bad news. Has to improve because there are so many better defenders for far cheaper right now.
Musa Barrow nearly nicked the win with a couple of goals. He’s something of a scouting favourite, last covered on 19th October.
Where I highlighted his threat – despite the goal drought and apparent poor form.
He was £1.80 on a bid then and is now £1.58 – even cheaper. And he’s had a good performance and near miss for a win.
These bid prices can be wild and patience is really low in this glum market.
Incredible value now if you can really can get this £1.58 bid… I’d be happy to pay up to the blue button £1.78 for sure.
Orsolini also had a good game and is hitting decent form. He can win occasionally, in my ratings and could be higher at a better club. He gets links.
It’s actually incredible he is available for just 88p on a bid right now. He was £2+ at times when he was a midfielder. He’s now a forward in an easier category.
Another great pick up.
27 October
The first time Milan have not won this season, held to a 3-3 by Roma.
Calhanoglu holders can be pleased to see him back and happy with the performance – had 4 efforts on goal. 2 really good ones a fierce free kick and one just outside the 6 yard box.
Tidy overall numbers but this was an even game and it will be versus the weaker teams where he can really dominate. Looks his consistent self.
Actually available at £2.14 on a cheap bid due to lack of immediate return – yet nothing has changed for him it just makes him better value.
Theo Hernandez looks consistent too. Had a reasonable opportunity to score here. One of the pricier defenders but I think he deserves it particularly on that current £2.39 bid.
Ibrahimovic is just a machine . 7 goals in 5 now. Strong IPD is likely and outright wins are not out of the question.
Creeping up in price now. 75p to 84p… it’s undeniable value for what you get. The risk is not so much his performance level but the potential disaster should get get a major injury.
That’s the reason why I’d personally stay out but I can definitely see why some would find this attractive. Especially with Milan in this form and some spicy Europa League games on the way soon.
Leao got a chance and will have done himself no harm at all with 2 assists. That improves his chances of further pitch time.
However his recent FI numbers are disappointing overall, even adjusting for him playing a full match. That’s a shame because in the past he’s shown some FI friendly stuff.
Still.. £1.29 is a fair price for a good youngster even if you were only hunting for IPD. With Milan in good form and good fixtures ahead it’s still a reasonable pick.
Diaz is looking much better overall though if looking for a cheap Milan youngster. He’s doing well in general although was rested here
Young CB Kumbulla didn’t win but he did add a second goal. Last review I said we were unlikely to see this again, so he’s mugged me here.
Worth keeping an eye on now but… well if you take his overall record it is unusual to see him getting regular chances.
I’m still putting it down to freak occurence for now but I’m happy to be convinced otherwise if he shows more consistency.
Pellegrini nicked the midfield win – and didn’t even need a goal or even to win the game. Did lay on an assist.
It was only a 149 so on a big match day this wouldn’t even appear on the radar.
He is capable of hitting 250 though and is probably underperforming a bit. He gets more chances than he is finishing.
I was not keen when he was being pumped closer to £3 but he may be available for £1.39 now and Roma have a soft Europa group. We could hear from him again soon.
Likewise Veretout who has penalties, scoring one here. And he does have the baselines to make them count. He’s cheap at 76p to 98p. Still only 27. And could easily figure in those soft Europa games.
26 October
Another poor result for Juventus. Pirlo as an inexperienced coach is likely to come under pressure quickly if this does not turn around.
The performance numbers are much better than the result, though.
Dybala made his first Serie A appearance after having fitness issues. And this is what we have been missing – you will rarely see better FI performances than this. Hugely impressive.
He’s got involvement levels good midfielders would be proud of with the goal threat of a leading striker. 9 shots here with good chances and it is remarkable he did not score.
He goes straight on my explosion imminent list.
Kulusevski was the other standout – it took him coming off the bench to save them with his second Juventus goal.
I have not been impressed with his numbers lately – but per minute – they were very good in this game.
The goal was great to watch, too.
Overall it’s a mixed picture at best thus far and he has a high price to justify. He’ll need to keep up this improvement or frustration can easily set in.
Morata had huge threat again – like Dybala it is amazing he did not finish and continue his great form. Would have done if not for a marginal VAR call.
It fees like Juventus were unlucky here given the chances they had.
Morata looks outstanding value for IPD. And actually.. he isn’t usually known for this but on a high possession day for Juventus he had the kind of numbers that can result in big performance scores.
It is very possible we see him improve from his Atletico days.
The promising Chiesa banned for this one – should be back next game.
Insigne back from injury and as usual never far away from the win. Only really lacking the matchwinner to see him close to 250.
Not for the first time he has come close and missed out.
I recall saying last review he’s had his wins for sure but not as many as his numbers warrant. Luck tends to even out over the long term though. If he just keeps maintaining these levels more winning scores are near inevitable.
Second good game in a row for Ruiz. Had a decent chance to score. Remains capable of putting up a few big scores over a season and could explode at anytime. The transfer remains the key reason to hold though and he missed that this Summer. Should come around again.
Politano continues to impress. Only from the bench again but he provided assists for both goals. Starting to rack up IPD despite limited minutes and given a full game he could easily win outright.
Petagna too is something of a dark horse. Newly transferred from SPAL where he has scored over 30 goals over the last two seasons at a smaller club.
He got a chance from the bench and won the game for them.
Were he to start seeing more pitch time 43p to 65p may suddenly seem very cheap as an IPD player.
Lozano has looked poor for the second game in a row after his glut of goals. Usually, something that looks too good to be true usually is.
Rui won but it was a soft day in defence. I wouldn’t expect it again soon and at 29… he doesn’t seem exciting enough to be worth holding for an occasional win alone.
25 October
Poor result for Atalanta, their second heavy defeat in the league on the bounce.
However, this disguises some very nice performance numbers.
Gomez in particular was sublime even by his high standards. An incredible 9 attempts, the level of threat we usually only see from the very top European strikers in their best form.
Some of those were speculative but there are good chances in there and he could credibly have come out of this match with two goals.
And he ran the show too, capitalising on Atalanta’s high possession.
It shows why he has long been considered one of the top FI midfielders in Scouting. That’s hardly in doubt and mostly common knowledge by now.
The difficulty with this trade has been timing, as it often is with veterans. The turning point for me was when the uncertainty of a possible move to an ineligible league was cleared away in September.
In 27th of September Scouting he was still available for under £1.25 on bids. People are often over pessimistic on age and this can be exploited at the right time.
At £1.49 to £1.67 now holders have enjoyed a nice price rise, some dividends, and on these numbers, can expect more dividends to come.
The issue going forward will be timing and we’ll want to consider how far into the season we may want to hold him. As per Key Strategy though – early season is the best time to make the most of elite veterans. And given we started later this year we have so much football to come.
I still think he’s value and expect at least another good 2-3 months can be squeezed out of him.
Pasalic was also strong here, dominating the play in the middle. No threat this time but he does have that in the locker and made it into the box here. A good pick up for the money and we should see more big scores if he just plays his usual game.
Full debut for Lammers – a player I’ve tracked in Scouting and various transfers articles since his PSV days.
He got the move to a decent club which was nice for holders particularly if getting him on a cheap bid which was possible at various times this Summer.
Guilty of wasting good chances here but his start at Atalanta overall can hardly be better, scoring twice already. Actually is in range of competitive scores and if he continues this threat level he’d be decent for IPD alone. The issue for him may be rotation.
Indeed the coach blames too much rotation for this poor result – so it may be we see a return to a more settled 11.
But we should still expect plenty of rotation for all teams in this hectic schedule in the coming weeks. It won’t be Atalanta’s problem alone.
Elsewhere, Ilicic looked well in contention too and should not be counted out as another elite veteran. And as ever Zapata remains a great IPD punt.
A good day for Inter, not actually a brilliant game to watch but they produced some performance friendly stuff.
Eriksen got a second start in a row but was hooked on 58 minutes for Barella. High involvement as usual but did not show the threat he did vs Gladbach midweek.
Could be seen as a positive step to get two starts but I suspect, as per previous reviews, it may need the transfer for him to realise his undoubtedly high potential.
Brozovic had a good game, huge involvement here. Lacking threat and there are question marks over his place in the side right now. But should not be written off he is a capable winner.
Similar boat to Eriksen in that he may need that transfer.
Lukaku was the one to win it again. I said in midweek he looks like the most dangerous striker in Europe at the moment.
Does not look like changing and for £1.90 he’s pulling in some great IPD. And an occasional performance win is not out of the question. Strong value.
Hakimi rotated. The bigger concern is that whilst his numbers haven’t been bad they are not what they were at Dortmund.
It would be very easy for people to get bored at this price and we’ve seen that so many times already with hyped players at new clubs. Holders need to watch him carefully.
In midweek I said Lazio were fairly predictable and even a little boring to review because the key men rarely change.
That was Alberto – who made my explosion imminent list and nearly rewarded my optimism. Only a late goal conceded robbed him of the matchwinner – handing the win to Kimmich.
He’s consistently in contention though and it would be a surprise if we didn’t see him up there again. A really solid pick.
Immobile scores again.. not really a surprise. We are likely yet to see the best of him and he’s another solid pick.
They have some spicy fixtures coming up in the CL too.
19 October
Sassuolo continue in the role of pocket performance powerhouse club this season.
Berardi the main man again – delivering consistent IPD and narrowly missing out on yet another dividend win to Kane. He’s on my explosion imminent list for a reason.
Superb pick because he’s value right where he is and in this form he can also get a big move later.
Also breaking back into the Italy side now – scoring for them last week.
Locatelli continues to look good for his budget price tag. No threat at the moment but he should be turning up with some occasional 250+’s.
We’ll never really predict the exact day of that but in the mean time he can nick a Bronze Day or similar on baseline alone and could get decent transfer rumours too.
Boga has been struggling with covid but he could really make an impact when fit, look out for him because his numbers can be superb.
He seems back in contention for starts now. £1.27 could well turn out to be a steal as he isn’t too far behind Berardi at all in terms of quality.
Musa Barrow – 21 year old forward at Bologna – is strong but seems to be sliding in price because he hasn’t scored yet this season. He’s also missed some games.
However, the threat is really strong and that goal seems a matter of time.
He’s also got the numbers to make a goal count for competitive FI scores and the trend profile to get a big club move potentially.
£1.80 is clear value and it’s a drop that can be taken advantage of – there are only encouraging signs if you look and no real reasons for pessimism – people just get bored if players don’t score for a few games.
Another brace from Belotti. 4 goals in 3 games off the back of a strong 2020 in general.
Great IPD pickup at £1 to £1.18 and also a very good chance of a decent transfer rumour later on. Would be in line for an Italy start if Immobile ever got injured too.
Strong choice with many ways to win.
257 without a goal or assist. From a small club.
This is… intimidating.
Rave reviews for De Paul will be familiar to regular Scouting readers but I’m struggling to remember times when players rack up points totals like this without goals or assists.
Exceptional even by his standards and he was all over the pitch winning tackles, taking corners, recoveries, winning fouls. You get the idea. He did a lot.
And he can add goals too. Had 4 shots here in fact although none were great chances.
Little to say I haven’t said in Scouting about him multiple times really. We’re very likely to see him challenge consistently and he justifies every penny of his £2.39 to £2.44 it’s clear value.
The uncertainty is the transfer destination but… chances are “somewhere good” is the answer and even if it was Leeds I think if he can do it at Udinese he can do it anywhere. Leeds have looked a decent performance platform so far.
It’s also a long way off so the transfer wouldn’t stress me too much right now.
Becoming an Argentina regular now too incidentally which boosts his prestige.
18 October
Dominant Napoli display, brushing Atalanta aside.
To watch it felt that way – although the numbers suggest a more even game – possession was even and Atalanta had no shortage of chances.
That’s why we didn’t see this translating into huge scores on FI – especially with Insigne their best FI player out injured.
The headline is Lozano’s return to form. After a poor first season his career had stalled. But he’s exploded in recent games, 4 goals in the last 2 now.
Welcome relief for any long suffering holders.
But there is a problem – he’s going to need at least 2 goals including a matchwinner to be competitive based on his numbers. They are poor.
That doesn’t make him a bad pick per se – if he became a regular goalscorer then £1.36 to £1.61 would be a good price for IPD alone.
It’s possible – at PSV he’s scored 17 league goals in 2 separate seasons.
But I wouldn’t expect huge scores out of him regularly – so perhaps if this improvement continues and we see a burst of optimism it may be wise to cash in whilst you can. And consider returning for IPD if he dips due to going a few games without a goal.
There is a good case for keeping for now though – he looks in deadly form and holders may be able to juice a bit more out of him.
Osimhen is quite similar in that the threat is strong but his overall contribution is poor. He’s looked really dangerous throughout all 6 games we’ve seen for Napoli now including friendlies.
More goals should come. Big scores probably won’t. That makes him a decent IPD pick but I’d also say that this level of goal threat can be had for much closer to the £1 mark and even under.
Politano did well here making a case for more minutes. He’s always been performance suitable and he showed that here.
He scored a screamer here and managed 163 despite playing just 61 minutes and without the matchwinner. In theory he can get up to 250 so if it happens we should not be surprised.
Rotation will likely continue but for 62p to 85p you are getting a player with a decent chance of winning even on a Gold Day. A good punt if rotated and if he did establish in the side he’d be a regular challenger.
Ruiz was tidy too with a big baseline score. Well in range of a win when he scores and he is probably due more goals than he has had in 2020.
Unlucky as well to miss out for Spain due to Napoli’s covid restrictions this week.
Good contender for a big transfer next Summer and can pop up with a big score at anytime – I continue to think him a solid hold even if he missed the transfer boat this Summer.
A bitter defeat for Inter in the Milan derby.
Not a bad performance overall, just really a failure to finish chances and some defensive errors.
Hakimi is under the spotlight after his move. More of the same from him really. He had a good chance to score and his overall contribution was good. But.
Again, it was not as good as the numbers that made him truly exceptional at Dortmund.
He’s still good – but definitely staying at in my ratings where as at Dortmund he’d be at least.
If holding I’d be getting nervous. That big price tag adds a lot of pressure.
It’s not even a grotesque overvaluation it may even be fair. But many other defenders are still much cheaper so by comparison… holders may get twitchy if he doesn’t explode soon. He might… there is a case for giving him a CL game or two since they are coming up.
But I’d be content to say the “Hakimi to £5” crew are looking… extremely optimistic.
Barella is looking really good though. Had decent chances to score here.
There was a risk he stayed too deep at Inter but that is not the case – he’s got enough threat to add 5-10 goals in a season and with his strong baselines that’s enough to keep him on traders radars – especially for that budget £1.01 to £1.24 price which looks better and better value the more we see of him.
Lukaku is absolutely on fire in 2020. Another goal here and all up he has scored 14 since August over 13 games.
In this form we can expect a boat load of IPD and probably some big scores too although he will likely need more than 1 goal to do that.
£1.89 to £2.10 isn’t exactly cheap but it is a very fair price for what you get – particularly when you are getting 6 games of IPD thrown into your first 30 days like now.
Solid pick.
A sign of life for Eriksen? He played well off the bench and must be full of confidence after scoring 3 in 3 games for Denmark. And damn were his performance numbers good for Denmark.
There is a reason why I keep such a close eye on him because he really is a potential FI powerhouse.
Will Conte give him a chance? Maybe. More likely may be a transfer somewhere else which could be the best thing for him. Other than Conte being sacked.
Either way – I think there are plenty of ways he can come back into contention and that £1.08 bid if still holding… way too cheap to sell for in my opinion.
Well. This was fun.
Drawing versus struggling newly promoted sides is not a good look.
Pirlo has not started particularly well it has to be said.
And if anyone can correctly call a Juventus team sheet at the moment they need some kind of prize. That isn’t all Pirlo’s fault they have many players out including Ronaldo, Dybala, Sandro, De Ligt, McKennie, Ramsey.
Still, they’ve got to be winning games like this or the doubts will set in.
The big incident was Chiesa being sent off on debut.
This was about the softest red you’ll ever see – the referee has stitched him up here.
Which is a shame because his immediate impact was really impressive particularly his superb assist for Morata.
Encouraging stuff and really… exploiting that short term negative incident of the card to get that £1.58 bid is great business.
He should have a significant edge over most forwards playing on the wing here and I’d be optimistic especially for that low bid or close to it.
Morata scored. Could have had 2 or 3. Could again prove to be a very strong IPD source for the money. Former EPL players who flop tend to be available for an absolute snip because people remember Morata as a failure.
Cast that sentimental stuff aside though it does not help us on FI. If he’s playing he’s likely to score and return handsomely.
The concern is how frequently he will play and it’s a little unclear how this side looks when everyone is fit.
Kulusevski was poor here. Way off the pace of where a midfielder needs to be to contend.
His opener was decent, but mainly for the goal. We haven’t really seen a huge improvement.
I was starting to worry for him last review. I’m more worried for him now. I think he’s got a big price tag that his numbers are not backing up.
There are other options ready to come in too which may pressure him.
Dybala for example is vastly superior and just £1.30 more and well deserves that premium.
Chiesa looks a more likely winner and is not far off half the price right now.
As well as McKennie who was out with covid here but has shown some superb numbers for a youngster, better than Kulusevski’s for sure, and he’s well under £1.
5 October
No doubt that Atalanta are picking up where they left off last season, they are averaging over 4 goals a game!
Excellent for their performance prospects, even if they ship plenty at the other end too.
Pasalic, a player I’ve long liked in Scouting, is desperately unlucky not to win with a monstrous 289 which claims Star Man on… well most days of the year.
I’ve long said he was a capable winner – we’ve seen 3 very big scores from him in total over the last 12 months – and a handful of middling scores that might nick a bronze day too.
He’s also been rotated so some may buy and then ditch after a month or two in frustration.
At this price though (£1 to £1.30) it’s clear value and if it wasn’t for the somewhat freakish Grealish result, you are looking at a player returning 20-25% of the purchase price in a single game.
Holders will feel a bit deflated to lose out – but it’s not all for nothing. Big scores on a players CV always count – he’ll come out better when people search by historic scores – and if he does this again sometime soon people will put two and two together.
With his numbers, he is more than capable and like I’ve said in scouting for months now – he just needs consistent full games. He may be rotated some more but that’s ok at this price.
What should be noted here is that he’s hitting nearly 300 with just 1 goal plus assist. Unlike other players who need 2+ goals plus multiple assists to get up there… it shows the quality and the likelihood of repeating the feat.
Alejandro Gomez on target again. 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 3. As per the last report, he looks a regular contender and he’s one of those like Lewandowski – we should respect age as a factor but not be a slave to it.
Early season is the best time to make the most of elite veterans and Gomez is killing it right now.
Zapata got a goal. Last review I said his goal drought looked surprising given the quality of his chances and the goals should come. Here it is – and on the evidence more are on the way. A great value IPD pick.
And new boy Sam Lammers from PSV who I’ve tracked in the recent pre-season articles bags his first Atalanta goal from the bench. Lovely feet and composure in the box to tuck this away. Should have earned more minutes.
I expect him to cover or rotation but he’s cheap and has decent numbers – he could be good for IPD and, if playing a full game, I can see him challenging for an occasional win. I also like calling him “Slammers.”
Inter will be disappointed not to win vs 10 man Lazio.
The numbers are fairly consistent with recent Inter reviews.
Hakimi was very close to his numbers from last time out with good threat, involvement and some assist potential. Only real difference is nothing went in for him today.
He looks good so far ian Inter shirt. But like last time – not quite as good as he did at Dortmund.
Early days still but at the £3+ price I’d be sweating a little on this by now. He does look good and can win – but needs to improve to justify this price.
I remain quietly confident on Barella. We will not see big scores every week but a little like Pasalic – he has the numbers to be capable of exploding if things go his way.
At just 97p to £1.24 there isn’t much pressure on and just one win can return a huge chunk of his value. Will likely need patience but I would also be very surprised if we don’t see some impressive scores from him this season.
Really the talking point is midfield uncertainty for Eriksen, Brozovic, Sensi and now Vidal.
Eriksen and Brozovic are looking for moves by now and both could be of interest if we see a late deal to a decent club. If both stay… it could be bleak.
Both are excellent FI players but like anyone – if they don’t play they won’t win.
Vidal looks set to be first team but interest in him is going to be limited. He can nick an occasional win but when going for veterans we want them to be exceptional rather than occasional winners.
And Sensi should slot into central midfield though he had a poor game off the bench here. I’d stay confident on Sensi – he’s quite versatile and capable of FI friendly play wherever he fits in. And the price is budget now too.
Alberto looking dangerous. Should have scored really and he has the baselines to make those goals count. He goes on my explosion imminent list for good early season displays that can turn into big scores so easily.
Immobile red carded and banned. Bad news for holders. Not much to do here other than hold if you have him or I’d say make the most of the possibility of getting an even cheaper bid in this unsettled market.
Goal for Savic too who has been improving for sure. On another day this could have been a competitive total.
He feels like a tiresome trade after going so many transfer windows now without making that big move.
But, in a way, that might him good for another speculative price rise ahead of the next window. Or maybe traders are sick of it by now.
I think certainly for £1 or just over… for decent IPD, occasional big scores and a chance at that big move (he could be incredible somewhere like the rumoured PSG) nobody can complain.
Milan overcome an epic penalty shoot out to confirm their Europa League place this week, so it was a rotated team here.
Last review I implied Milan already had European competition secure and this was a mistake – I did not note there was yet another qualifier to get through. Phew. At least they made it.
Theo Hernandez was a standout performer. bagged a goal and created chances too. Great to watch. Not actually his best game for FI in terms of underlying numbers. But 228 is competitive in defence and he is well capable of reaching 250.
As per last review, at £2.18 to £2.56 he isn’t the cheapest but I think you are buying quality and he deserves that price.
Big game too for Leao with two goals. I’m actually disappointed with his overall numbers in this game – down on what he has shown himself capable of.
200 with 2 goals and a matchwinner is not brilliant. But I think he can do a bit better than that. And I’m probably nitpicking here – 2 goals for a young striker trying to break through is undoubtedly just good news.
I like him and hopefully we see him use this as a springboard. He may not be perfect and if he was at a higher price I’d be harsher but for £1.05 to £1.25 I think he’s a good pick.
Brahim Diaz may have left empty handed without goal or assist – but his numbers were the pick of the bunch. His best game yet for Milan.
He’s playing well and should see more minutes. He’s getting chances and should score again soon. And he’s teeing up assists that aren’t being put away yet.
We haven’t seen an explosion immediately however I started out confident on him and I Have not changed my mind – looking good.
Milan did not start with Hakan and they will regret that – he changed things when he came on laying on an assist. Numbers brilliant as usual. He should be a very consistent dividend challenger. Excellent and £2 or just over remains brilliant value.
33 year old Pedro shouldn’t be underestaimted. After his move to Roma from Chelsea… we’ve seen two games and both look good for FI scoring.
He scored a wondergoal vs Udinese this weekend to win the game. He looks in range of some winning scores here in the forward category.
Will he win enough to cover his 30p to 54p cost? Very probably.
Would many want to punt on a 33 year old in this market? Probably not.
However, he is contracted up until 2023 and you only need 1 decent win to make a chunk.
I can also see him being desirable for the Europa clashes – especially in Roma’s ludicrously soft group featuring Young Boys, Cluj, and Sofia.
4 October
Missed out on the win by just 1 point – chipping in with another goal and assist.
This is why I rate him so highly and he was on my Explosion Imminent list last week.
He had the matchwinner taken off him by Crotone’s equaliser too – so it shows how this works both ways. With James Rodriguez game winning goal handed Scouting a win – and with Berardi it takes one away.
That’s just how it is and we can’t control this random element – but the good players will tend to come through eventually.
Incredible he remains at such good value which is more to do with the current state of the market rather than his ability. £1.66 or even close to that is just a steal.
1 October
A big display from debutant Hakimi with a goal and an assist on full debut.
Couldn’t really have asked for much more in reality although there will be disappointment with the score of 200 for all that. What gives?
He was involved plenty, and the threat and assist potential could hardly be much better at wing back. He also missed out on the matchwinner, which is just luck of the draw.
His baseline numbers are however some way behind what we saw him produce at Dortmund. They are by no means bad but they just aren’t as exceptional as they were before.
This is a little troubling because this was a game Inter dominated with 66% possession.
It is just one game though so we can hardly call this conclusive. Holders will want to see it improve though.
What concerns me a little is Inter don’t have a history of high performance scoring wing backs under Conte – players like D’Ambrosio and Ashley Young never really excelled.
Hakimi is clearly an upgrade there and I would expect him to be in contention.
The doubt is whether he will be able to do enough to meet some skyhigh expectations as the 3rd most expensive FI defender at £3.34 to £3.60.
If I had to bet now I’d say I suspect he will… but only just. I’d be incredibly surprised if the £5+ valuations being thrown around on social media became genuinely justified.
We need more minutes to say for sure and I’m sure he’ll get them after this.
An easier decision – I think Alexis Sanchez with a contract stitched up and a full season ahead looks grotesquely undervalued right now at just 86p to £1.06.
Early season is the time to make the most of veterans and as we’ve seen with many older players already this season – they are only unfashionable until they win.
He was close to scoring here, in fact could have had 2. He did get an assist and the involvement is strong. He is likely to put up some big scores playing this way.
De Paul is an FI points magnet. If he wasn’t at Udinese who only win 30% of their games he’d be challenging a lot more often.
Even at Udinese he punches through though and it’s a testament to how good he is. He’s throwing down near elite level baseline numbers here when Udinese have less than 50% possession. It’s hugely impressive, especially because we know he adds goals and assists too.
Lately though he has EPL rumours – to Leeds in fact. Latest is that he’s going to be just out of their price range and they may bring in the cheaper Cuisance (What is it with Bielsa going for good FI players?!).
There are probably easier targets to go for at the moment who don’t have this many complications.
But I would say that even if going to a smaller club like Leeds – we know he has the ability to punch through. In fact Leeds would probably be better than Udinese as a performance platform.
He would not at this time make my priority target list but he is tempting particularly if we get news of him going to a bigger club, or if he were to drop any further in price.
Explosion Imminent
Players by position showing exceptional performance strength in recent games
- None
- Angelino - RB Leipzig
- Raphael Guerreiro - Dortmund
- Ben Chilwell - Chelsea
- Philippe Coutinho - Barcelona
- Luis Alberto - Lazio
- Thiago Alcantara - Liverpool
- Joshua Kimmich - Bayern
- Toni Kroos - Real Madrid
- Serge Gnabry - Bayern Munich
- Robert Lewandowski - Bayern Munich
- Domenic Berardi - Sassuolo
- Neymar - PSG
- Marcus Reus - Dortmund
- Jonathan Bamba - Lille
- Paul Dybala - Juventus
- Lorenzo Insigne - Napoli