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Tuchel’s first two games gave us cause for optimism. It was an FI friendly style that is giving chances to some very attractive players for traders. Last night continued that theme.
The plot twist was a more advanced role for Hudson-Odoi which would be very favourable for him. The involvement was good for his 66 minutes. He had 3 shots although all were difficult chances. And unlike the last game there were no chances created and no key passes.
But, it was a tough night in the rain and he only had 66 minutes. Overall, I am encouraged by this position for him and holders should hope this continues. Whilst he does very well at wing back too this more advanced position probably allows him to dominate more which would boost media appeal too.
He will likely share pitch time to an extent with Pulisic and Ziyech needing chances too, but early signs are that Tuchel is a Hudson-Odoi fan.
Interesting that the enhanced market depth information is helpful here. Silly bids in the £1.30 to 89p range are dragging the average Red Button down to £1.43. But then there is a gap to £1.71+ which is a much more realistic price.
If anyone really is selling for £1.43 or less… I’d suggest they don’t know the potential they are holding.
I’m not sure traders want to be making low bids for players in the ascendancy that won’t get matched anyway, particularly if they hold the player. It just drags the price down and locks up money that could be used elsewhere.
Hudson-Odoi moving forward gave Reece James his chance to impress. Holders were rightly sweating given his lack of pitch time so far. They can be a bit more confident now.
It was a good performance particularly for creativity where he notched 3 key passes – the most of any player except for Mount who matched this. He also had a decent chance to score himself.
Overall involvement was significantly down from his usual, but I’d say the strong goal/assist potential compensates for that and we may see it spike up again in softer games. Very encouraging, but the team remains unsettled and pitch time rather remains the concern – we can be confident that if he starts he is well in contention for wins, at least in the range and probably a bit higher.
Werner worked hard and won the penalty. Decent performance overall, and he had chances. Not exactly world beating but he really is not far away from getting into contention. If he regains form it could be a very different story for him in just a week or two.
Given the price, I consider £1.67 to £1.91 a favourable bet as an explosion could be well rewarded, and if he keeps struggling he’s just 24 and has time on his side.
Pulisic appeared from the bench. He may well work his way in but for FI purposes he has always looked poor at Chelsea. Nothing here from the 30 minutes he had to change that view.
Jorginho the winner with the penalty. This is a very consistent thing and as long as he retains penalties under Tuchel he is always likely to pop up with a few wins over a season.
For this reason I’ve highlighted his value in recent months although I didn’t highlight him in the article yesterday, which I probably should have.
A Bronze Day win hasn’t got the blood pumping exactly but a sharp trader here could probably pick him up for 50p a few weeks back and then sell for £1 last night.
And this is a very boring, very predictable trade that is low risk and high reward. Our picks don’t all have to be potential Golden Boy’s. Just great value.
Mount superb again on and off FI. Apart from not starting the first game, he may have improved under Tuchel if anything and definitely hasn’t got any worse. He was looking very strong anyway and has been a Scouting success story of recent months.
Not the slam dunk bargain he used to be but £2.05 to £2.28 remains a very solid pickup, he has a much higher price ceiling in the £4 range if he can keep a first team slot.
Another decent outing for Alonso. Seems a great fit for Tuchel. Alonso could prove incredibly undervalued if he keeps this spot. A real explosive winner as he is amongst the best defenders on FI given the chance. Still just 41p to 54p showing how little FI traders trust age at the moment. That instinct is likely to cost them a lot of money – we should not fear high quality 30 year olds at this price provided we believe he will stay in the side. And based on performances there is no reason to drop him. Rotation is also acceptable for the money.
Chilwell is suffering for that and this is an awkward situation for him. He should get chances to impress but as the more highly priced player, rotation hurts him more than it hurts Alonso. Ideally, holders would have been out of this swiftly for £1.50 or so. Now at £1.27… it’s a bit more difficult.
You could wait for a start, because surely he at least gets a chance soon. And he can win if he plays. Or you could just sell given there are many options available that do not come with a headache. No real right answer on that, I’d just say pick an option and go with it. If holding I’d watch the game and sell if he’s performing poorly.
Kovacic is seriously impressive too. Adding regular threat in the last 3 to his usual excellent baselines. Could explode soon.
And Azpilicueta is looking really strong. Massive baselines and regular goal threat too for a defender. Even creating chances. Absolutely not to be underestimated at this bargain 33p to 40p price, he is a likely winner.
Chelsea are looking like one of those rare sides like City and Bayern at the moment where there are potential winners all over the park. And many of them are value. With two kind fixtures next they could do some damage.
Onto Explosion Imminent go Kovacic, Azpilicueta, Hudson-Odoi and Alonso. Mount was already there and he can stay.
I would also add Reece James but I am worried about pitch time. But if he plays he can win. Same goes for Chilwell.
Another comfortable victory for City who are flying. But they do have tougher fixtures to come domestically.
As per today’s article on form/fixtures, you can pick winners all over the park here. Literally all of these players are in contention to varying degrees probably best represented by today’s form star ratings, except for Jesus, who got the matchwinner.
Cancelo is looking particularly monstrous, being subbed off early the only real issue. Another game full of threat for him and more big scores look very likely.
Sterling‘s recovery continues with 3 goals in 4 now. No matchwinners or he’d have some more impressive scores on the board. Improving, in contention, and a value price at around £2 with a CL campaign to come and the Euro’s ahead. Good pick.
Mahrez strong again, lacking major threat this time but overall the numbers suggest more big scores are inbound.
And do not count out Silva, Gundogan and Rodri – all 3 are value and very capable of wins. I am eyeing Silva in particular due to strong goal and assist potential of late combined with strong baselines and a value price.
Traders have over estimated Silva before – but he has improved and the price has dropped significantly. They likely underestimate him now.
Could you ask for a better debut?
Lingard has languished at Old Trafford in recent seasons but this was a very impressive West Ham debut that also made it’s way onto the FI scoreboard.
Two goals from 6 shots. Both could have been saved if we are being critical.
Interestingly, Lingard has a pretty solid fit for FI in his career numbers. We’ve just only seen limited minutes or appearances in domestic cups or weak Europa league games.
Those soft fixtures probably make him look a bit better than he is.
But, he’s never been hopeless. If he was a regular at a big club and in reasonable form he’d have some FI relevance, maybe in the to range.
Interesting punt with two kind fixtures ahead against Fulham and Sheffield United. Another good performance could push him up nicely from a low 69p bid.
I’d call it a punt rather than a long term investment, but it’s not a bad one.
Miserable result. Yet, some decent FI performances.
Salah, Thiago, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson are the best current performance assets with Curtis Jones ticking along nicely and getting decent minutes too.
All four of these showed good underlying numbers last night. So, if you back Liverpool to recover then they do have some very winnable games ahead although Man. City are next.
Alexander-Arnold is nudging ahead of Robertson again and looks the more likely winner these days. But then you do pay for that. Robertson now clearly the better value with TAA having risen substantially.
Salah in particular has improved in his underlying numbers and his recent win is no fluke. If you back Liverpool particularly for that CL showdown with RB Leipzig Salah could do really well with a deep run in that competition.
Well what a game.
We did see two United winners but no truly outrageous scores as we might have expected. This is due to the goals being spread so evenly throughout the team.
Only Martial netted twice and he only played a half so was up against it.
Bruno Fernandes did come through to win the midfield dividend because of course he did. A player this good is rarely going to miss a chance like this. That’s why he’s the rightful King of the Index and there is no reason to expect him not to continue in this vein.
Holders only unlucky that this came on a paltry Bronze Day because this score can carry bigger prizes. But holders won’t mind too much.
As I said in SOTM yesterday, the question is how long you hang onto premiums, even the good ones. Given Bruno can have a realistic price ceiling beyond £12 in this dividend structure, continuing to hold him is perfectly viable particularly for a long term strategy.
However, given the market conditions with premiums having risen nicely, and other quality players yet to catch up, I would consider it optimal not to have too much locked away at the premium end. So I would be trimming any oversized holdings (over 5% portfolio value?).
A very active trader could even cash out fully and redirect the cash – there will always be chance to return to good players later as every player hits a misfortune at some stage or another.
Rashford is another I have been advocating in recent months as he would be a natural beneficiary of any market rebound. Plus, he’s reasonably competitive on FI and is still young and can improve.
I would also call it a brave move for traders to head towards Euro 2020 without at least a couple of big England names, so he meets that requirement too.
He’s unlucky to come just behind Neto having been subbed off on an hour with the game in the bag.
In SOTM I said I would generally be targetting the under £2.50 price range, but with a few exceptions where warranted. I would say Rashford is an exception given the strong long term value. £3.40 is still a very solid pick up.
Wan-Bissaka has been mainly awful for performance scoring, and long time readers will recall I was no fan in his hype days when he was amongst the most expensive FI defenders.
This win probably reflects a 9-0 game where goals and assists were being handed out for fun. But it is also fair to say that the last 3 games have been decent particularly for assist potential. And he had a good chance in the previous game versus Arsenal too.
At just 51p to 69p it could be significant if this improvement was sustained. But I’m not getting my hopes up just yet, his season record is poor overall.
Telles is clearly the best United fullback for FI but he is perhaps surprisingly finding minutes hard to come by due to good form from Luke Shaw.
Shaw isn’t too far behind Telles and is competitive although he is unlucky to come off at half time last night.
I would be happy to have either Shaw or Telles if they were playing full time but they are killing each other by sharing pitch time.
De Beek replaced Shaw and he continues to be a puzzle. Why pay so much for a player you are barely using?
In the Cup game vs Watford there are some encouraging signs, but he was poor versus Liverpool and barely contributed last night in the second half.
Taking the 80p you can get for him now might be quite a good option if you can move that somewhere more immediately useful. But then, you would think De Beek gets a more prominent role next season particularly if Pogba leaves. So holding him isn’t a terrible option either.
More Dortmund than United but I note too that because of the signing of Amad Diallo (who can sort of justify his price if you squint a bit at £2.01 in this market given his excellent historic numbers) they may end the pursuit of Jadon Sancho.
This is no more than gossip at this stage but it is a timely reminder of the risk. Whilst many may be holding Sancho in hopes of a repeat of the Summer surge towards him… it may not work out exactly like last time and we don’t want to make this lazy assumption.
As I’ve said, it is better to hold Sancho now when the transfer window is far away and the risk is lower. But we want to keep an eye on this news because without that United move Sancho will really struggle to hold his price tag.
Back to Diallo, he scored twice on his Man. Utd U23 debut. And quite some swagger on those goals I have to say. He has just about all the attributes to get the hype/speculation traders salivating. And enough substance to keep the cold hard analysts happy too.
Neto perhaps lucky to scrape a win with 169 but as I’ve reported a few times he is a decent young player who is capable of wins. Plus he’s a candidate for a future big transfer.
He’s been goal shy of late but is not without chances, an 11 game goal drought seems unfortunate. Assist potential is strong too and just 1 assist in the last 5-6 seems a poor reward for his efforts.
With a goal he is capable of getting up into the competitive 225-250 range. That may only happen 4-5 times per season at Wolves but that’s pretty competitive and a bigger club could really improve him.
Still just 20, £1.69 remains good value even if it has started creeping up since previous reviews.
Ruben Neves also comes into contention as with Raul Jimenez unfortunately sidelined with injury, Neves is on penalties and he has taken two since the turn of the year.
He was never too far away anyway, as he likes a long range blast and his great baselines mean a goal can really count.
Still just 23, and available for 60p to 74p now he’s quite unlucky that his recent goals have come when Wolves didn’t win. Or last night, it was not the matchwinner.
For that money, given the age, possibility of 3-4 big scores a season and future transfer potential with him in his 3rd season at Wolves now… it’s an appealing package for the long term holder.
A comfortable victory and yet another very encouraging FI friendly display.
And plenty of changes.
The flying wing backs the stars of the show.
Hudson-Odoi is excelling in this role, great for him. He’s been doing well recently anyway as per Scouting, this is an additional boost. Getting obvious by now – but it shows the value in spotting these things just that 2-3 weeks earlier than most.
He’s damn near doubled in price from December and won a dividend to boot.
£2.05 to £2.22 now and he is showing the numbers of a consistent winner. If he were to play like this week in, week out, or close enough to it, he could have a very high price ceiling in the £4-5 range. Could well be the pick of the season if this continues.
On the opposite flank we have Alonso. I have long flagged him as one of the best defenders on FI given the chance (he sits at in my potential ratings).
And under Tuchel this looks exactly right. He is perfect for this role. I wonder if Tuchel would have signed Chilwell.
This could be a battle that is tough to call. They may well share the role. That might be ok, since it’s a strong platform and either could justify their price even with some rotation.
Alonso in that case looks incredibly undervalued at under 50p. Chilwell may get short term negativity if Alonso keeps starting.
But then, it also seems hard to believe Chilwell will be totally sidelined and given just one game in this role Chilwell could explode very easily in one of the coming games.
Picking a winner is hard. Perhaps holding both as a hedge could be a good call, similar to the City centre back situation. Alonso is just 30 so I do not think him particularly high risk at 30-40p. And he is very capable of explosive 250+ scores.
Obvious uncertainty there but here is a player who can win a Gold Day this season and cover almost their entire value in a single game. And if he did he may well double in price too. An exciting option if happy with the punt.
Azpilicueta has never been a bad pick. He looks even better now. This dividend win is no fluke and has the baselines to win without a goal, plus enough threat for 3-4 goals a season which can result in very big scores.
For 30p to 46p even today, it’s a solid choice with big potential rewards, a bit like Alonso but probably with a little more game time security.
Reece James looking the odd man out, with Hudson-Odoi excelling in the wing back spot.
Bit of misfortune for any holders, as he has been a solid pick in recent months. But changes like this happen. It’s not a trading failure just something that has to be dealt with sensibly.
The ray of hope is that in his 22 minutes his FI numbers were excellent. So give him a start here and he has a strong chance of winning.
Difficult. With Hudson-Odoi in this form I might consider dropping James if holding, if only to dodge any short term negativity if James fails to start.
At risk of James starting and exploding, because he can! But we just have to make a choice here and I would likely sell, mainly because I know how impatient traders are.
Mount reinstated and excellent again, on and off FI. Like I said last review I don’t think the initial hot take that Tuchel will sideline the English and favour the Germans is quite right.
Clearly Havertz and Werner need chances but clubs are well aware of the value of English talent given nationality restrictions and transfer values.
Mount looks close to further wins if he can keep his place. I remain optimistic.
Werner started behind Abraham, perhaps unexpected. But then Werner has been tried all over the pitch this season.
Plenty of chances, particularly a tame header straight at the keeper.
This is familiar story to Scouting readers this season – not terrible numbers, and only a small improvement can see him competing. But he’s someway off the pace right now.
Given what we know about him and how hard Tuchel is going to try to get him firing, I would still say £1.75 to £1.98 looks value and judge it more likely he turns things around than flops.
If he still looks weak in a couple of games time holders may want to cash in before disappointment sets in.
Which may then be a good time to buy since long term prospects remain good, the worry here is the impatience of traders.
Abraham abysmal for FI scoring as ever. For FI purposes we really want him cleared out of the way so that a more suitable player can take this spot. Unless you hold him which I’ve never recommended.
An obvious improvement at Liverpool in the last two games that is making it’s way onto the FI scoreboard.
Salah the beneficiary sweeping both Forward and Media dividends – and this is why the big EPL strikers can command a premium.
He’s a bit too inconsistent to make my Explosion Imminent list but two weeks ago today I said this:
“Salah was strong in this game too. I’ve noted at times a clear improvement in his numbers this season. Although Liverpool’s form suppresses that a bit.
Consistently inconsistent, then. That’s ok for holders – he’s competing often enough especially for his meagre ~£1.50 price tag.”
£2.17 to £2.46 now which is sizable and all for a pretty low risk trade. Obviously the best of that is gone but I still think £2.17 is good value as we head towards the tough but very winnable CL clash with Leipzig.
Not the best games from the usual suspects at full back, TAA and Robertson. But good numbers again and they are consistent.
I have warmed to TAA as we got to £2.50 as per Scouting, especially as he was likely to get a quick bounce in the event of a market recovery.
He has! £4.62 to £4.91 again. And this is where I say thank you very much and cash that.
A lot of this probably comes not so much from new buyers but people changing their mind about selling now that a recovery is underway.
We want to look out for these opportunities where over negativity becomes over optimism again.
The price is just too much again to be clear. In True Value terms it’s a moderate over estimate at this stage but I consider him over priced mainly in comparative value – you can just clearly get more bang for your buck elsewhere.
Not to say he won’t win, he probably will challenge soon. If we insist on holding highly priced players, the least we can do is hold the good ones like this. But there are clearly better options for under half the price.
Thiago excellent. With no instant impact some traders are losing faith if that £1.35 red button is to be believed. They are wrong to do so based on the evidence. Hitting levels where the big score is more a matter of when rather than if. He remains on Explosion Imminent at a great value price.
Speaking of value Curtis Jones came on from the bench and assisted. Again, with no instant impact he remains cheap but for me he is up there with the Foden’s and Sancho’s as one of the highest potential young players with a fantastic trend profile.
All young players are risks but this is a very well judged one at £1.33 to £1.50.
Poor result for Everton, unexpectedly losing to Newcastle. But it is worth noting that for a second game in a row James produced another very competitive FI display. Good threat and creativity married to strong involvement.
Around a in my ratings, capable of around 5 big scores a season and he could win a Gold Day.
In a better team or if they were in the Europa that could improve. Tough fixtures but Fulham on 14 Feb is a good opportunity.
It could be good to pick him up now for an 80p and holding him into the kinder run of fixtures in mid-March.
Not often we turn to Newcastle for the winners these days! But Callum Wilson bucked that trend, all be it on quite a low scoring day.
225 is about as good as it gets for Wilson, unless he smashes in a hatrick. Hard to do at Newcastle.
With IPD now gone it is hard to recommend him immediately after a win. But given his explosive potential to score 2 goals which he can do a few times a season there is some merit.
The way to trade him would be to wait for it to go quiet, pick him up for rock bottom at 25p-30p then hope to cash in on the day he scores a couple of goals.
If on that day you can sell him for 45-55p that is a very substantial profit that can be worth waiting for.
One for the more active traders to set a reminder on.
On a platform where youth will always be pumped it can be hard to pick out the real deals from the hype.
In this new FI where you actually have to sell to other traders I suspect we will not find so many willing to gamble it all on garbage, so picking the really good ones from the trash will be even more important for sustainable profits.
Here is a good one.
He’s unlikely to win at Palace. But he’s got the attributes to suggest he could reach at least if playing for a bigger club one day. Particularly when played more centrally as he was yesterday. Hodgson seems to think he is more suited centrally, which is encouraging.
If you believe in his eventual move to a bigger club he could be a good pick up for this 87p to 99p. May need patience as a move this Summer might be a bit too soon and another season at Palace would do him no harm.
But then, this cheap, he may catch a decent rise with the market sooner rather than later. I like the pick and it looks a solid long term choice.
Routine win but a disappointing result for ity holders who will have wanted another 3 goal+ victory.
And Foden blanking as my Captain ruined my fantasy team but that is by the by.
Starting in defence, City yet again demonstrate that their defenders are all well capable of wins. And that the selection can be unpredictable.
Laporte got his chance and played well. I’ve suggested it could be worth holding multiple City CB’s to cover this rotation which they are all so cheap. Prices have moved on a bit since then, and all were available at the 50p mark.
Dias at £1 to £1.15, Stones at 84p to 93p and Laporte at 57p to 68p all look strong value though. I’d be content to pay £1.25 at least for a starting City CB, even with some rotation.
Cancelo rested, unfortunate for holders but that’s life at City.
Zinchenko superb again . Based on Pep comments this week we can now be more confident in his starts, even if there is some rotation.
If he keeps starting, it is pretty much a matter of time before we see him near the top of a scoreboard and he is a likely winner. The equal of Cancelo and one of the best defenders on FI. And currently just 74p to £1 with that (reducing) risk of rotation. Onto Explosion Imminent he goes.
Bernardo Silva is something of a forgotten man amongst City assets. I was never a fan when he was at peak price, he always looked a bit weak.
However, he has improved at a time when his price is now well under £1. He’s well in range of wins these days.
It may suprise some to see him topping a scoreboard in the coming month given it is some time since his last huge score.
It won’t surprise me. Value.
Ferran Torres had a good game on and off FI. One of his best on FI overall actually. He’s much, much better when played out wide as I’ve mentioned a few times.
20 years old. Capable winner – given rotation I’d say. Getting a very generous amount of minutes so young given Pep’s standards.
Playing for Spain. £1.02 to £1.21? What’s not to like here for a patient trader?
I’ve covered Lookman a few times as a high potential player.
He will struggle to show it at Fulham obviously. But even now if Fulham were to win then a matchwinner could see Lookman challenging.
So, if you see him bound for a bigger club at some stage, we may well look back and see this 49p to 68p price tag as a steal for a patient trader.
A current hot topic is sorting out which former “IPD players” are now dead and buried and which retain value as they can still strong arm their way to the top of the scoreboard with 2+ goals.
André Silva is one for whom all hope is not lost.
He’s unlucky on Saturday to score twice in a 3-1 win yet not get the matchwinner. If he had, he could have been in that 220 range which can get him in the door at least on Bronze and Silver days, and if lucky a Gold Day possibly.
This was the same in the last game, where he again scored twice but did not drop on the matchwinner.
So he’s a regular MDE contender, too.
This is arguably the best season of his career and at just 25 if he keeps on scoring like this (2nd top scorer in the Bundesliga in this season to date) this will attract significant transfer attention.
In many cases, reaching for that sell button on “IPD players” was the right call. In others, traders have got it wrong and sold too cheaply. This is very likely to be strong value at 44p to 66p.
On Jovic watch, there are no signs of immediate performance suitability after seeing 4 substitute appearances.
Even adjusted per minute, these are poor numbers that are not going to be getting him to the top of the scoreboard anytime soon.
The goal threat however is decent and with a longer term view if he starts some games soon and plays well he still has the chance to rejuvenate his career.
There is clear evidence of buyers remorse though, if anyone clicked buy immediately after that 2 goal haul in his first game back for Frankfurt.
The Blue Button is £1.03 but some sellers are happy to take 61p and that is actually thin – there is effectively no bid price right now.
Buying after that goal spree was not a bad call but with mediocre games since you probably wanted to be selling at around £1 which was a substantial profit.
As it stands…. if an aggressive bid of 50p could get accepted a long term holder might be happy with that.
Another comfortable win, though no big scores this time.
Kimmich close again. No goal in 6 but he is getting chances. More big scores are inbound, but you do pay for them and like I say, he’s at or at least close to a rational price ceiling already. You can pay too much for good players – not a problem we have had for a while – but it is an issue here.
Gnabry had a good game. He’s been playing well lately but not really getting rewards. This was a nice finish that capped a good display. Strong FI numbers, especially given he was subbed early. Looks back in contention.
Has also received a nice price boost naturally as the market has risen. Yet, if these £1.67 bids are actually available, under £2 remains a steal. Particularly as we head towards CL knockouts – this is where the Core big hitters really come into their own.
We also saw a debut for 24 year old Roca, his first Bundesliga appearance since moving from Espanyol. He was covering the quarantined Goretzka.
Similar numbers actually. If he was on FI he would be capable of big scores however given he is a back up to a back up (Tolisso is injured too) his chances will be limited.
I’d say a good punt for the next couple of weeks but by the time he is IPO’d his moment may have gone.
Unless he plays so well that he forces his way in.
Pavard was unlucky not to score with his excellent finish ruled out for offside.
He has really struggled this season but he is really not far away from wins.
Chances are, those taking advantage of that downswing at 82p or under £1 are going to end up happy with a 24 year old Bayern/France full back for that money.
Nice to see a win for Sancho yesterday. And not just if we won a dividend.
It is a social media cliché these days but it is a true one – a big winner like this is good for general feel good factor on the platform and does give traders a healthy injection of dividends to play with the next day.
It’s basically good for everyone, Sancho holder or not.
He is a touch fortunate to win a Gold Day Star Man with just 238 sure. But as I’ve been reporting in recent weeks, he has been close to big scores and this was coming. That’s why he is sitting on my Explosion Imminent list.
I have a good record to date on predicting the ups and downs of Sancho, and my recent conversion back to him at around £5 has paid off.
There could still be a fair while to run as hype for a Summer move builds.
There is often debate between Sancho fans and Sancho detractors as to who will win in the end.
The answer is none of them.
We can’t afford to get encamped on either side – the real winning traders are just quietly trading in and out of him to suit the circumstances.
I think this can be left to run if holding, and you can still rationally buy now. But I wouldn’t leave this too much longer. Again, if it starts to seriously overheat in price or the transfer actually starts to approach or may be shut down, we may want to consider taking a profit.
No reason he can’t win again with these solid numbers which are consistent in recent games. He can stay on Explosion Imminent.
Elsewhere, Brandt continues his run in the side. Again, he’s still showing competitive numbers as we expect from him. Much better spell for him and patient holders may get their reward here.
Quality players have a way of playing their way back into contention. Still just 60p to 70p it’s great value.
Guerreiro was exceptional again. 5 key passes, 1 assist. Huge involvement. Had 1 half chance himself. 7 touches in the box so things can fall to him.
Just incredibly consistent yet has not been rewarded lately. The ideal time to pick up a quality player for just £1.44 to £1.60.
Napoli returned to winning ways, easily overcoming a weak Parma side.
Elmas, who I gave a brief shoutout to last week, got the matchwinner.
It was probably around 12 months ago from memory that Elmas was considered a hot property and was on the verge of a breakthrough season on and off FI.
It hasn’t happened, with very limited minutes for him this campaign.
He’s had a good week though, scoring in the cup vs Spezia and then a very fine solo goal yesterday too.
His numbers yesterday are surprisingly poor given he has shown decent stuff in the past. Goal aside, he had limited influence on the game.
But he’s getting noticed again and if he has earned himself more minutes he will be an interesting youngster to watch. I wouldn’t rush to him yet but potential is there – he is still just 21.
Insigne excellent as usual, lots of chances and hit the woodwork again. Another credible dividend challenge but no reward this time.
Holders will not be too disappointed though because he has topped January Team of the Month, netting a 10p win. A great bonus for consistent quality players.
Rising nicely but the £1.57 to £1.90 price remains a significant undervaluation. I think he could justify £2.50 with absolute ease.
Sassuolo provide a few budget performance options, most notably Berardi and Locatelli.
Boga is another I expected good things from in pre-season, though we haven’t seen a major impact yet. Injury, limited minutes, and some goalless spells have kept him off the radar.
He scored the equaliser in injury time yesterday though which will be a confidence boost. And it was a decent set of numbers overall, he’s in contention.
If playing every game I’d put him at and not too far away from Berardi. A disappointing season but he is hanging on in there and a big score is very possible if he plays more full matches.
Roma have Juventus next which is tough, but after that go on a run of 3 kind fixtures including Braga twice in the Europa R32.
And with a another win yesterday, they look in decent form ahead of that run.
Pellegrini I’ve mentioned recently as he has been heating up, and that continued here. Another assist takes him to 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5. And it’s no fluke.
I’d be looking for him to do some damage over that run of 3 kind fixtures. Whilst he’s crept up a bit in price, a £1.04 bid or anything near that is great value.
Nor should we forget Veretout who is always capable of popping up with a big score. He had good threat yesterday from open play, but mostly he relies on penalties which is just fine at under 50p for a realistic Gold Day winner.
Borja Mayoral continues his good form as well. A goal and assist here. He’ll be competitive especially on those Europa nights.
At just 38p potentially he is likely a victim of the IPD removal but the Europa campaign would be a great time to hold him, he’s a capable winner.
Mkhitharyan is a valid veteran punt too and also hitting strong form. It will not be a surprise if he wins in this kind run of fixtures and he’s only 50p. Not exactly the sexiest trend fit though and I’d probably go for Mayoral if looking for a Roma punt who is a bit easier to sell at 23.
Eriksen almost broke the hearts of many a Sancho holder with a passing masterclass.
Just 13 points from nicking Star Man, without goal or assist. That shows the influence he had on this game.
And he had 4 efforts himself and provided 2 key passes that went unfinished. Fine margins.
This story has had so many twists. In early life at Inter he looked like he could be one of FI’s best, showing really strong numbers. Then Conte turned on him and we know the rest.
But then light was at the end of the tunnel with some potential big transfers on the board for January. Now, apparently they want to keep him.
Having dumped Milan out of the Coppa Italia with a last minute winner in midweek, he seems back in favour.
I still expect rotation and probably a transfer come Summer. But if he keeps playing, he is a serious contender for wins.
Overall, what this saga shows is that quality players will often find reasons why they can force their way back into contention. If it’s not the transfer, it’s the performances.
A miserable trade for anyone buying on the back of promising early Inter numbers. But at least quality players can bounce back where as over hyped players often have no reason why they can regain their price.
These days, a £1 Eriksen looks solid value given he is still just 29. If he doesn’t settle at Inter then you would think a good club comes for him in Summer. Plus he has some favourable Euro 2020 fixtures with Denmark.
Speaking of comeback stories.
I was very pessimistic on Hakimi based on early Inter numbers at his massive £3.50+ price. But last week, with better performances and a much kinder £1.16 price tag I changed my mind.
This is another game that suggests I was right to do so. Strong threat, good involvement, decent overall performance. This is much more like it and he is getting back into contention at a level. Value, these days, even though he is more than he was a week ago at £1.46 to £1.68 having risen by 25% or so.
I wouldn’t want to pay £2 yet. But that £.150 mark is decent.
Comfortable 2-0 win for Juventus who continue their strong form and FI friendly style.
Cuadrado close again. 3 assists on the bounce now. He’s on my Explosion Imminent list for a reason and if he keeps this up holders won’t have to wait too long for further big scores most likely.
Had really good chances to score himself in the previous game versus Bologna.
A good hold as we head into the CL knockouts. I might be cautious about holding him too far into the season but for the next month at least he has strong prospects.
Chiesa solidifies his fast won status as key player at Juventus with another matchwinner. Unfortunately this has dropped on one of his worst FI performances at Juventus, leaving him with just 154.
But in reality it was a good display and matchwinners will usually see him to competitive totals. A great pick up at £1.08 to £1.29 particularly with that upcoming soft CL tie vs Porto in mind.
But really, as just a great long term hold in general, I don’t think you need to time him all that much at this price.
22 year old Weston McKennie also continues to get minutes and he is one of the big club breakout youngsters of the season in reality. That hasn’t quite made it through to FI yet.
He can be inconsistent but at times he puts up some really great numbers and we may see him explode before the season is done. 56p to 66p is a bargain for a patient trader.
Continued good form from Barcelona, 5 league wins on the bounce now. La Liga has been quiet with January something of a cup month over in Spain.
But if Barcelona keep playing like this we’ll see some decent scores from them before too long.
Messi, obviously. Another goal here. He’s essentially a cheat code on FI and threatens to win anytime he plays. Maybe down a touch from the ludicrous numbers he was putting up in early January/December.
But he had plenty of slack to burn. No doubt he will continue challenging for wins.
The bigger question is the whole transfer drama, with the contract being leaked apparently. Those are mindblowing numbers.
Lots of uncertainty but to try to simplify things. At £5 he can justify that money probably anywhere in 2-3 seasons if he continues that long. Which he probably will, but who can say for sure except the man himself.
The EPL with Manchester City is the jackpot. He can hog media and performance there. PSG is good as it’s a flat track and will come with media. And a reversal and a stay at Barcelona is an acceptable outcome, though some may sell in disappointment. But probably not too badly.
So. I’d say if confident in seeing Messi playing at Barcelona, PSG or Man. City next season it’s probably a good deal at the price that has a huge potential upside.
Risk being a surprise retirement or return to Argentina, or some major injury which at this stage could spell wipeout. One for the braver traders.
Griezmann scored and was considered to have had a decent game. One of his poorer games for FI purposes overall so the score was middling at 182. But he is definitely in contention for wins and just 1 matchwinner can be enough to see him clear of 225+ most days.
90p to £1 a is strong value.
Pjanic is getting close to some very big scores, threatening to score in both recent games. Actually no bid price for him and could probably had for around 30p.
Yet he is a very, very credible Gold Day winner. And hardly ancient at 30. A big win here is probably not much more difficult than having the mentality to do something that seems counter intuitive to the mob but is actually completely logical.
Dembelé continud his run in the side. Not his best game, but again, he’s well in contention for wins. I’ve highlighted his value many a time recently and I still think that is the case.
Coutinho will be back from injury before too long and given he is potentially one of the best players on FI the 63p to 78p is an extreme overreaction to rotation and injury amidst the market downturn.
He can win when he plays, and whether that is at Barcelona with Messi, or a new look Barcelona without Messi, or even transferring to another club… he is still just 28 and I would frankly be stunned if he remains below £1 forever.
Atletico look unstoppable with a 10 point lead at the top of La Liga plus a game i nhand.
But only twice in the last 6 have they really dominated a game, and one of those was in the cup! It’s not a recipe for big FI scores.
A bit frustrating as there are some good players if the shackles came off. They have shown glimpses of that but it has not sustained.
Lemar has had a good season so far and if Atletico have a good game he always looks a threat. He added an assist here, that’s 2 in 2 games. No accident his creativity is solid.
Good all round ontribution, though no recent notable chances to score.
He’s a first team regular now and at just 30p to 57p I like him, particularly for a CL night. Chelsea is a tough game but winnable.
A transfer is possible but after this revival, he might just want to stay where he is and not throw everything up in the air again.
Felix also has real potential but he’s rarely going to show it at Atletico. He’s really struggled for form of late, and yesterday was poor again.
However in the previous game vs Valencia he scored and assisted, breaking a 9 game goallesss streak.
Minutes are being limted though and his chances of winning soon look low. Even if he was playing the full 90.
If he moves to another big club I’d be interested but as a “wonderkid” his price has stayed stubbornly high at £2.50. People tend to be sticky on their wonderkids, not always wisely.
I haven’t really been able to recommend him since his Benfica days when he was something of an FIT Goldenboy.
Not anymore. But maybe one day if the price drops.
Two back to back good games from Asensio.
After a great finish to the last season I was very keen on him in pre-season, but form this year has been poor and he’s ended up in and out of the side.
This looks a lot better. He assisted and scored but it wasn’t the matchwinner – really just needed that and he beats Son to the forward dividend yesterday – unlucky. Also subbed off 20 minutes early.
The midweek numbers in the draw vs Elche were very encouraging too. And the performances are good to watch – making the case for more minutes.
There is a reason I highlighted his strength in the first place.
It is however a packed side with lots of competition for these spots on the wing. Eden Hazard is also making his way back too. And the in my view underrated Vazquez is playing so well he’s practically undroppable. And there is Rodrygo and Vinicius to accommodate.
Lots to do then for Asensio but he’s demonstrating that he’s still got what it takes to make a top level contribution for Real and challenge for performance wins on FI.
He’s still just 24 and given the improvement it is hard to see him as anything but a bargain despite the current negative sentiment due to the poor start to the season. It’s tough to do but we have to try hard not to take sentiment too seriously and instead focus on the facts. We know how fast sentiment can change.
I mentioned Vazquez and he scored and assisted as well. Not his best overall contribution but it was decent enough, resulting in a 178 score. Not exactly a world beater but he can get an occasional win and the IPD potential is good. When you consider you can get this for just 20p potentially and he’s only just 29 and playing this well? Just seems like an obvious bargain. Would not be difficult at all for him to get a win and move up towards 50p.
Hazard makes his way back on – again – he has at times shown very good stuff but this injury record is borderline absurd. If he settles, he is very capable of big FI scores and this nervy market that rejects anything remotely risky is putting him at the £1 mark. That could well be a massive undervaluation. But holders are going to want to see a bit of consistency – this could be his last chance at Real Madrid and if it doesn’t work out the transfer rumours are likely to come for Summer.
There are already some very vague rumours of him signing for City which I don’t believe but it is the sort of thing that will gather pace if life doesn’t work out at Real. Plus he’ll likely see interest for the Euros.
Far from a write off – he could be a big bounce back story – but he’s got a lot to prove.
A form team with good fixtures as per today’s article.
Yazici grabs the matchwinner but overall puts in the kind of performance which shows why I don’t really rate him as a performance player overall.
He can be a good fixture punt though, mainly to take advantage of traders who seem to rush to him when he scores as discussed earlier in the week.
He looks in good goal scoring form but the underlying numbers are very poor.
To hold this at this price, you’d have to be convinced the big Summer transfer is coming and for me, it’s a bit far away to be betting on Summer transfers unless there is a strong chance of a performance dividend or two in it along the way.
To get one, Yazici would have to really explode with 2-3 goals again… could happen… but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t.
Renato Sanches returns to action after injury here. I’m optimistic on him due to the under £1 price, a reasonable chance of 2-3 strong scores before the season is out, plus the transfer and the Portugal minutes too. Plenty of ways to win there on a 23 year old player at just 76p to £1.03.
I’ve been tracking 20 year old Timothy Weah this season who has struggled for minutes but has been getting more chances recently and scoring goals. He got a start last night and scored. 4 this season with very limited minutes, it’s decent.
Often, he has some very respectable baseline numbers too. Not last night, though, they were actually pretty dire and below his usual. When a player gets limited chances we want them to be able to take them so this has to improve.
But I think the headline is he’s getting minutes and scoring goals and he is a well regarded prospect at just 29p to 42p now. So he is at minuimum worth keeping an eye on.
Jonathan David scores again. 3 goals in 4 and he seems to be turning things around after an abysmal start to life in France. Overall numbers remain poor though and he’d need braces and hatricks to trouble the FI scoreboard. Not overly likely.
Bamba chips in with an assist. Decent display for his 60 minutes, he normally finishes the match. The most consistent challenger at Lille and remains a value price – that’s why he comes out well on my “Explosive Potential” article – he is in contention for wins and just one can be a major return when starting at his 76p to £1.16 price.
Good form at Lyon continues with a 1-0 win over Dijon.
They are a solid team and it is a pity they are out of Europe else they would offer some really strong options. Longer term holders can be optimistic however that they will secure at leasat a Europa spot for next season.
Paqueta with the goal and matchwinner here. I’ve been reporting on his resurgence at Lyon. He arrived in Italy with high expectations but had a torrid time. Always had some nice underlying performance numbers, though.
204 with the matchwinner is ok, but I’d have expected better. He’s taken an edge off here with -20 for 4 fouls, and unfortunately this is a bad habit that is constantly chipping 10-20 points off his scores.
Still, a big improvement and he’s probably at with the potential for . For 45p to 65p that is a decent long term choice, particularly ahead of next season when Lyon are likely in the CL/Europa, and possibly the departure of players like Aouar make him a bit more key to the team.
Speaking of Aouar he was very close to a big score, very unlucky to hit the inside fo the post. Another effort well saved. A solid display. At just 77p to £1 now from a high of £3+ he is something of a sleeper pick.
There is nothing to stop him turning up next week and winning at Lyon. And by Summer, those EPL transfer rumours are likely to come around again. I think this is a very solid hold for a patient trader.
Dubois the defender winner with an impressive 224 with no goal or assist. And he has scored in the previous game and assited twice on the 24th January vs Saint Etienne. I expect more assists, goals are a bit of a collectors item.
Definitely improving and whilst I can’t see him as a hot priority for the use of immediate cash, 64p to 79p is a very reasonable price for a long term hold.
Depay should have scored. Good chances. Still performing below his best but really not that far away either and he can pop up with a win in this kind run of fixtures in February.
I consider him an excellent pick up with a 4-6 month view. A good transfer to Barcelona or Juventus, plus leading for Holland, could combine around May/June to push the price up. And he is capable of winning along the way at Lyon.
Possible decent young CB on the way in Diomandé who is now getting minutes, completing a full game last night. Just 19, and not on FI but he shows some strong distribution stats which are always favoured by big clubs and indeed the FI scoring system.
Villas-Boas is gone, no new appointment yet.
No immediate improvement under the stand in coach last night, anyway.
The trading action is really off the pitch. Thauvin is winding down his contract come the season end and could be a great pick up now at just 76p or so. AC Milan are a strong rumour and he could be very FI relevant there.
Cuisance, who was very promising at Bayern before a chaotic transfer to Marseille probably does not stay at the club beyond this season. He may return to Bayern or be sold elsewhere. He was something of a Villas-Boas favourite.
Lots of uncertainty for him. His Marseille numbers show glimpses of why he was a potentially very strong performance asset at Bayern. He appeared to be breaking through there but Flick does not seem to favour him.
Hard to expect anything from him soon, but a good transfer may see him land on his feet.
Monaco are a form team I’ve been covering a lot in scouting recently.
A few days ago I covered the youngsters, Tchouameni, Badiashile and Fofana.
But it was the veteran Ben Yedder who came through to win. Two goals from him, and he was subbed eearly on 66. He could have polished up his 204 score plenty with a further 30 minutes.
When the IPD announcement hit, there was little to do but sell if you could get a reasonable price.
But as I’ve said in recent weeks – that negativity went too far. Strikers like this are not dead. They can get themselves in contention with 2-3 goals, it is a goals centric scoring system.
Even if they don’t make a Gold Day, they can win a Bronze or Silver with 180-220. And the payouts for those are substantial these days. Plus they can get in the door of Match Day Extra now too.
This mainly applies to big club strikers, ideally if they have a Europa/CL campaign to look forward to.
Monaco currently don’t, but look good for a spot next season. And we’re reaching a point where long term traders can start factoring that in.
Yes, players like Yedder take a hit from IPD removal. But 24p to 33p? Nah. Too cheap.
In a surprise to no Scouting reader ever, Di Maria wins Star Man.
He’s so strong as I’ve said many times recently. And the only thing putting me off is the unsettled contract situation. That expires this Summer, and as it stands has not been extended.
If it was, I’d snap him up no question for anything under £1. But whilst that hangs over him, you have a potential wipeout scenario on the table. And I don’t like to leave myself open to that personally.
Neymar suspended for this one. Likely, he’d have run riot here. Signing a new deal with PSG. Actually a pretty good option. Holders can be happy with him committing to another 4 years in the softest league there is.
Mbappé… standard stuff. Decent performance and a goal but it does not get rewarded on FI without 2 or more goals.
Big price tags bring pressure and he needs a lot to happen including an EPL transfer (with Real more likely) and probably a change to the FI scoring system this Summer too. That is possible, and the most likely tweaks would tend to help players like this.
If they can beat Barcelona too, media friendly stars Mbappé and Neymar will benefit from a late run in the competition. So that’s a ray of hope.
Holders are hoping for a lot, though.
Paredes is a goal away from a monstrous 275-300 score. And he is having a few long range pops. We could see a very big score before the season is out and at just 32p to 47p that could be a very big return. One for those who like a smug winner that very few saw coming, but will need patience.
Icardi/Kean start sharing pitch time as expected. Bad for both of them, though either are capable of exploding with 2-3 goals and for the pittance you pay at 50-60p that can be worth waiting for.
Like Yedder, life on FI is not over for players like this at big clubs.
A shock defeat away at strugglers Lorient puts an end to 4 wins on the bounce and a strong opening period for Pochettino. His first bad result.
In FI terms, there are some excellent performances here but it won’t count if they don’t win.
Given the previous form, holders can probably put this down to a blip especially with the soft Nimes game next up. But we won’t want to see another result like this anytime soon.
Neymar almost didn’t care, losing out by just 5 points to Salah despite not winning the game.
Had other chances too aside from the two penalties he scored. With injuries we have not seen Neymar win as often as he should do, but he has the power to dominate and win a few times in succession.
He’s enjoyed a nice bounce along with most of the preimums. At £6.42 to £6.86 he’s still value and there is plenty of the season left to go at.
He does tick over to 29 years old this week. I don’t think traders would want to ever pay more than £9 now. A long CL run would really boost him but Barcelona remain slight favourites. No Euro obviously which will start to weigh on players in the next 3-4 months.
At this point I’ll probably park myself in “neutral” on Neymar. It could be well worth sticking in to see him get a very likely win in the near future but a lot rides on that tricky CL match.
Mbappé was subdued, not really looking close to winning even if he had scored and PSG won. I was getting more favourable on this at the £3-4 mark but at £5-6 I am now wary again given the latest statements that he may stay at PSG.
Those hoping for a Liverpool move might be really going out on a limb here. He’s not going to justify this price at PSG and it’s pretty much the flattest track there is. Getting risky as that price ticks up.
Icardi looks a strong threat despite the lack of goal here. 3 goals in 5 games plus 2 assists. That is no accident.
Performance numbers are as awful as ever. Very cheap though and could easily have a hero moment in the CL, or explode with 2-3 goals and get a win.
Strikers this good will always force their way in eventually – FI is already a goals centric platform.
I also keep watch on Di Maria’s contract as if he was more secure I’d snap him up. No news yet.
Yazici got a matchwinner although was well short of a winning total. Good opportunity for some match day trading here, though.
On 18th January I said:
“You can make a case for going for Yazici again at this stage. He’s starting more games recently, and looking a similar level to previously when he’s won before.
The main difference is price. He’s been a while without a win now so he can be picked up around £1 again. Where as he reached £2 in November.
He doesn’t show fantastic numbers that suggest he will challenge regularly. But he has shown this tendency to be explosive – so you can see how a shrewd trader might pick him up whilst things are quiet and hope for another big score – selling into any rise.”
So as that goal goes in people do over react and think “he’s going to do it again!” and then bam that is when a good trader is exploiting that situation.
On the 18th he could be had for close to £1 and today can be sold at £1.59, and much closer to £1.80 during the game.
So I’d be taking that. But not buying again now because, whisper it, he’s not actually as good as his previous explosive scores suggest. But that doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the popular belief in him.
Likely, he goes quiet again and this trick might be able to be repeated. Maybe even for the longer term if he gets a good transfer rumour closer to Summer.
Ironically, the much cheaper Bamba at just £1 now is much, much closer to regular wins and was competitive again here.
Along with Renato Sanches he is likely Lille’s best performance asset.
Sanches is being nursed back from injury. But can win at Lille when fit and has explosive price potential from under £1 given the EPL transfer rumours.
Jonathan David continues to look poor for FI purposes. And the removal of IPD kills an avenue of hope because the goal threat has improved lately and he has scored 2 in 3 games.
Weah is a high potential player, still ticking away with some minutes from the bench but never having enough time to really make an impact on FI. Per minute, the evidence suggests he can though.
A good young player to keep an eye on but not exactly looking close to an explosion.
Some good displays at Monaco in a 2-1 victory over Nantes. Worth watching out for Monaco talent as they have a nice fixture calendar ahead.
Literally, given out of form Nice next plus Nimes and Lorient.
19 year old CB Badiashile continued to demonstrate outstanding distribution and aerial dominance. He’s exactly the sort of CB big clubs want right now and there was a reason he was linked to Man. Utd last summer.
Just 63p now, he was £1.50 in the midst of that transfer pump. And could be again. If we don’t want to wake up one day saying “Damn, wish I’d gone for that” we have to move now when the price is low and the window is quite far away.
I wouldn’t normally suggest doing that quite so soon except Badiashile is capable of a couple of big scores before the season is out, he has decent goal threat for a CB.
21 year old Tchouameni is also playing his way onto the radar. Excellent baselines plus really strong goal threat in the last 5, with just 1 goal to show for that. But it could be more.
Could be a real bargain at 37p to 51p – he looks capable of winning now and may hit good transfer rumours later.
Youssouf Fofana is also impressing at Monaco, and he is just 22. Perhaps we are seeing a return to the Monaco talent factory after a bit of a gap.
Not quite as impressive in terms of FI numbers as Tchouameni, and is also more expensive at 70p to 96p.
But remove that comparison and Fofana looks a decent pick up in his own right.