18 February
Ouch. Juventus could not have asked for a better draw but 2-1 away to Porto is a bad result in a game they were expected to win.
It’s not terminal. They are still favourites to turn it around in the second leg and Chiesa’s away goal is crucial. But for trader’s it is a missed opportunity to rack up big scores.
The underlying numbers are actually decent and Juventus’ fixtures are kind in general particularly the next 3.
I would retain confidence in most Juventus assets but this wobble would bring into question selections like Ronaldo, Cuadrado (injured anyway) or Sandro who have a lot to gain from a deep CL run.
Juventus are still expected through so I wouldn’t totally rule them out but holders will want to watch the next leg carefully as they would be most damaged by an upset.
Chiesa was one of the few bright sparks in reality. Not exactly his best FI game but it’s another goal and yet another example of why Chiesa is a key player already.
Looks a great value pick at the £1 mark. He can pop off in the next CL game and beyond if Juventus make it through. And I wouldn’t be stressed about Juventus going out either.
Chiesa feels like a player well worth holding through the Euro 2020 and into next season.
Kulusevski however continues to look poor consistent with previous Scouting. Worse, if anything in recent games. Difficult to see how he can win, even with a matchwinner.
De Ligt was poor to watch but as I reported previously he has improved a bit. He’s reaching solid baseline levels now and we’re seeing occasional goal threat.
I was never keen on De Ligt at his peak, he never had the numbers to justify the price. But having improved whilst his price has tanked to 84p to £1.11 I would now call that a good pickup.
Morata looks like he came back from flu too soon, he was ill on the pitch. For his 32 minutes he was a big threat though. He’s a bit like Lukaku – sold massively because of IPD, yet capable of wins and can easily explode with 2-3 goals. Plus he’ll likely lead for Spain at Euro 2020.
The concept of him being 27p to 43p on a bid is staggering. Great value and incredible short sightedness from anyone selling for that.
Good result for Dortmund against a tough Sevilla side. Especially given their recent patchy form.
Not quite over as De Jong’s late strike made it 2-3 but algorithm has tipped strongly to Dortmund giving them an 88% chance to qualify. And the betting, and probably common sense, says similar.
Haaland the man of the night with a brace. The first one in particular was fantastic to watch. Also provided an assist.
His 223 (unmodified) for all that including the matchwinner is the reason why it is hard for him to win enthusiastic support from all quarters. He has to work so hard for competitive scores that can win on normal Gold Days.
However he gets a boost from Dortmund progressing as if they get a reasonable draw, he may be fancied for the Quarters. On these days, 2 goals or more will definitely count.
As per the midweek review – at the current price this is not a terrible bet but it is a high maintenance one where the wrong transfer news can make or break it.
Elsewhere, this was a game where Sevilla dominated the ball so even goals for more performance suitable players like Sancho might have left them struggling.
Sancho wasn’t far away though and provided an assist, had a decent chacne himself. As per the usual Scouting over the last 10 games or so he is just showing good numbers all round and last night no exception, even in a tougher game.
Every reason to expect big scores from him and he sits on Explosion Imminent. As discussed in the last review, this is a reasonable transfer bet in the build up to Summer but I am wary of his ability to deliver at Manchester United if it happens.
So if you can’t resist the Sancho train, better to be holding sooner rather than later.
Bellingham had a good game and to be starting CL knockouts at 17 is an acheivement in itself. Obviously he will need a season or two to cook but if we saw a big score from him before the season is out I would not be surprised either. Had a decent shot here that was well saved.
For under £1 he looks a strong long term pick, I could see him being in demand for next season and if he were to get a win in this campaign it could result in a strong market reaction.
Sevilla may have lost but they actually looked the more likely side to produce big FI scores, result aside. Hard to bet on them for the CL but some of the picks are decent anyway. And if they do pull off an upset it’s a bonus.
CB Koundé I picked out in the wonderkids article and he was excellent here again. Over 100 passes to pump those baselines and he had a chance to score, as he has in 4 of the last 5 games.
Transfer rumours to big clubs picking up too. I don’t always buy CB’s. But when I do, they look like this.
Alejandro Gomez started but actually did not have a great game. However, his numbers are pretty good, and overall from his time at Sevilla he looks as strong as ever.
He’s back on Explosion Imminent and once he starts finishing games he could really power on. But he has the numbers to win in 60-70 minutes actually.
Suso scored. He’s difficult to back having blown hot and cold so many times. But given a season probably does produce 2-3 pretty strong scores to be fair.
17 February
What a great match. PSG smash the algorithm and general expectations, especially with them lacking Neymar.
This will be a big boost to PSG players as buying was probably a bit suppressed in fear of a knockout.
Mbappé was the runaway winner with a superb hatrick. He may not be the best fit for FI but when you score 3 on a European night that is rarely going to matter.
Will do his chance of Team of the Month dividends no harm either. You can see how stacking these plus Match Day Extra in the weeks and months to come are going to be lucrative.
Mbappé and Neymar will benefit strongly from a CL run. I am wary of the Mbappé pick because if people are holding in hope of a Liverpool move… I suspect they may be disappointed. So if that gets shut down you could see a price drop.
Looks a bit brighter today because he should get at least 3 more CL games including two Gold Nights. Plus Euro 2020. And you can argue that at £4 to £4.50 it is actually a fair price even if he ends up at Real.
I’m pretty neutral on this. It’s not a disaster waiting to happen anymore, but there are risks. The clincher for me is that there are definitely better ways to spend money at the moment.
Still, I was pleased to see a big winner, FI needs this kind of positivity and it’s a shame for holders it is only a Bronze.
The other winner was Paredes who made his Explosion Imminent debut on Monday, then won on Tuesday. Happy with that one! He has been threatening that and it is no fluke.
He has the capacity to produce truly monstrous 300+ scores (on normal unmodified match days). And on the evidence of the last 5 games it is likely that he will before too long.
Given the modest price reaction many may think this is a one hit wonder. It is not.
Verratti is quite similar actually and seems to be playing more and more advanced under Pochettino. His touches in the box have improved in recent games and he is getting chances. A value player who looks very capable.
If this keeps up I’d peg him around 
which is a marked improvement. Patience will still be required but when the big scores come they could be very hard to beat on Gold Days.
Marquinhos was close to taking the win with baseline alone, but also had a chance. He doesn’t play midfield anymore so loses a bit of an edge. Yet he is a player I’d be very confident taking into a Quarter Final Gold Night.
Those big nights are also where someone like Icardi or Kean could come into their own. They were played together here and both got chances.
Either could pull an Mbappé and explode with 2-3 goals. And they are at rock bottom prices. Big boost to both to get a shot at the Gold Nights assuming PSG come through.
Another example of why the “IPD striker” is not dead.
Uh oh. Barcelona went in as favourites especially with Neymar out. And when favourites get knocked out we can expect very negative market reactions.
They aren’t quite knocked out yet. But… pretty much. They would need a Champions League miracle.
This is obviously bad for Messi but is it really? Surely an early exit pretty much seals the deal on him leaving which may be exactly what holders want. Messi’s price is dictated by that potential move rather than this seasons CL.
So, not withstanding the risks I set out in the last Messi review around that transfer, if you fancy that, it is probably a good week to be picking him up.
Players like Griezmann, Dembelé, Pedri, de Jong, Trincao lose out… but not that much. All have domestic reasons to hold them and/or Euro 2020 or a transfer as back up options.
In a normal year with a big CL knockout we might be seeing an overhyped price collapsing. Often here, we are seeing undervalued players lose bids.
I wouldn’t be too stressed about that as long as we think the player is competing in La Liga and retains reasons to take them into the Summer or even next Season.
The Alba’s and Pjanic’s have most to lose. Pjanic for example starting a Gold Night would have been very tasty as a punt.
In the match itself, Dembelé is considered to have had a poor game yet his FI numbers are very strong.
I generally consider it a good sign when fans think a player had a bad game but he still held up quite well in the underlying numbers.
Overall Dembelé has shown strong numbers and looks well in range of wins. Should be scoring more and if he does he can compete for dividends.
Griezmann had huge chances he didn’t take. Has shown solid numbers across recent games and has made it back on my Explosion Imminent list. But he did not reward my faith last night. Wasn’t far off, though, despite the mediocre performance.
Worth noting again De Jong is now getting forward more although that is more of a general comment. We didn’t see it much last night in a poor team display.
Barcelona will have easier games in La Liga though and De Jong is looking more like the player traders hoped he would be when he arrived at Barcelona with a much bigger FI price tag.
Dest had a rough game. Actually started well but Mbappé eventually overwhelmed him. He has shown promise at times but has had heavy rotation recently and some niggling injuries. I don’t think hope is lost for him longer term but he is struggling and it may be next season before we see the best of him.
An impressive win which puts fears of an early CL exit to rest for now. Algorithm and betting make them nailed on to progress from here. And in recent form this was a nervy encounter to head into with Liverpool assets.
Alexander-Arnold and Salah holders can breathe a little easier.
Liverpool players in general should now retain optimism heading into the next round on 10 March which is at home.
Despite the comfortable result this was actually a tougher night for FI scoring and it’s no real surprise we didn’t see huge scores.
Arguably, it was Curtis Jones who was the standout player to watch. Very confident performance on a big stage. Overall contribution was good and he did lay on an assist.
The disappointment is he was very deep this time with no real threat. But overall his record shows a good scoring history.
Another stride forward in his development. Very promising FI player as I’ve covered approximately 49 times this season to date. But he keeps giving me good reasons to highlight it.
Thiago was very similar in his numbers, decent contribution but limited threat. Overall it was a better game though and this is important as people were starting to get on his back.
I retain confidence in him despite the recent wave of negativity, he has the numbers to turn that around.
Robertson and Alexander-Arnold remain in the mix as reported here even through this bad run. TAA proved that with his win here which is a confidence booster. They could do well out of a deep CL run as they will be fancies for those big Gold Nights.
And with those coming up next.. this is where we can start fancying the likes of Mané or Firmino for a punt. They may be a bit behind most forwards but on a CL Gold Night all they will need is a goal to be well in contention.
And they are cheap. Will also be in contention for Media if they put in a big display.
Of the front 3 though I would probably now go for Salah as he is only £1.35 to £1.77 and looking in really good form. He could win domestically and should be expected to do well versus Leipzig again next.
Leipzig were always up against it versus Liverpool, so haven’t done too badly from this result.
Not many really expected them to win, even if recent Liverpool form put the result in doubt. And lots of their prices were low anyway.
Where we have longer term confidence in these players, this is probably a good chance to pick them up on cheap bids. They will be good for the rest of the season in the Bundesliga and Euro 2020 in some cases.
Plus you never know, they might upset Liverpool. Unlikely, but if you want the player anyway then it’s a free bet on the underdog.
Some decent performance numbers here despite the loss.
Sabitzer had a couple of shots as he usually does. Did well to retain high involvement in a tough match. He remains well in contention and is very likely to be one of these bounce back characters like Demirbay who turn up with a big score or two in the remainder of the season.
Angelino was full of threat and assist potential as usual. Remains one of FI’s best defenders and is £1.05 to £1.39 as of today. Value. Holders will be happy he stitched up a contract recently too as they will want him to stay where he is next season.
Olmo has had a slow start in the Bundesliga but is improving. Good numbers here given the quality of opposition. We have only seen him breach 200 once this season – I suspect we will see it more before the season is out.
Probably at 
right now but improving and for a 22 year old with decent Spain minutes under his belt his 59p to 73p looks a good long term bet.
Nkunku didn’t have the greatest game here but overall is probably being underestimated at 71p to 87p now. Similar to Olmo he’s hitting that sort of range right now where he’s good but not great. Yet he has lots of time to improve and he’s at a good value price. It’s a decent pick.
19 February
Comfortable 2-0 win for Roma who have a strong chance to progress from here.
No real big scores or even potential big scores as they did not dominate but perhaps they will be able to do so more in the next leg at home.
23 year old Diawara was given a start and was perhaps surprisingly probably the closest to making an impact. He hasn’t started since the last Europa game in December and does seem to get plenty of minutes in this competition.
He should be very high baseline with a little bit of threat, no reason to go for him particularly now but he is worth putting on the radar as a young-ish player with potential.
Veretout probably the most reliable bet going forward, he can turn up with big scores if traders are patient, and will be an attractive prospect if Roma make the quarters.
Mayoral probably worth a punt for those so inclined if he starts he is capable of winning with 2-3 goals, he has very high threat and explosive potential. He is a regular starter now usually but was introduced from the bench here, scoring inside 30 minutes.
Plenty of rotation here, frustratingly for holders of Calhanoglu in particular. Some were rested seemingly ahead of the Milan derby this week.
In the end it probably wasn’t the sort of game where Hakan would have excelled anyway. Maybe in the next home leg he will do better.
The other star of this team, Theo Hernandez, almost made up for it by scoring a penalty and he had another goal disallowed. Robbed of points for winning and a matchwinning goal by a stoppage time Red Star equalizer.
Probably gets beaten by that freak Star Man score from Rangers’ Barisic anyway.
Unlucky, but close and shows how often Theo is getting in contention these days.
Great result for United. They had been increasing favourites recently but Sociedad are no mugs and they have managed to all but put this tie to bed.
Bruno the midfield winner, obviously, and little I need to say about that other than lament that he was beaten to Star Man at the death by 2 penalties from a Rangers’ defender.
Such is the nature of the Europa league which can be chaotic, at least until we get to the Round of 16 next where the pool of players is whittled down.
Sociedad were a tough draw though and if United pull a soft Round of 16 game out of the hat, Bruno could get significant optimism when traders see him with a clear path to those Gold Nights.
Holders won’t mind too much he missed out on Star, he did pick up Media too and this is why he deserves to be King of the Index. Probably looking a great time to return to him or pick up more given the surge for premiums has faded and Bruno has a very promising 4-6 months ahead.
Surprisingly though despite the result, this was actually a fairly poor game for FI scoring purposes. Bruno actually underperformed his usual.
As did others and nobody else was seriously in contention. Not much to add to the domestic scouting from 3 days ago here.
Telles did the right things and I’d be confident with him if I trusted his game time. Which I don’t, given Shaw’s form. But holding both to cover this rotation would be viable. Both look capable winners.
Good result for Spurs who look all but through just like Manchester United. A good run in this competition is the best hope for dividends from this side.
I did not see a Bale win coming!
Possibly his best game for Spurs in his second spell. 3 key passes, an assist and a game winning goal got him up there. It is repeatable but doing this versus Wolfsberger and then doing it versus tougher opponents is another thing.
Spurs do have West Ham, Wolfsberger again then Burnley and Palace. So there are plenty of chances to impress ahead.
Until we see consistency from Bale though I would stick with Kane and Son as my top picks from Spurs ahead of that kind run.
If Bale did catch light though he could do well in the remaining Europa rounds for both media and wins so he is worth keeping an eye on.
A thrilling game where Leverkusen fought back from 3-0 down only to concede at the death and lose 4-3.
This was a game Leverkusen were expected to win where they could have produced big scores, so it’s disappointing for holders.
But it’s not over. Leverkusen are still slight favourites in both betting and algorithm to progress and overturn this in the home leg up next.
Schick scored twice but is not a particularly enticing option, at least not until any Quarter final where he could win on goals alone.
Teen sensation Wirtz looked good. Strong baselines, decent chance to score. Provided an assist. This kid is the real deal and is already in contention for wins.
May be a bit more expensive than other options right now but there is a reason for that. If really keen to trade actively you could make a case for exploiting his current popularity to swap him for a less popular but equally good player struggling in the £1 and under range.
A bit like the Pedro Neto example from my article yesterday. Except I am less inclined to do that with Wirtz because he looks close to wins that could lead to a significant market reaction.
Demirbay very close, excellent chance to score from close range. And he only needs 1 as we know.
Bailey was a threat with 3 efforts and whilst he was subbed off just after 60 minutes he continues to show good numbers. Strong value here.
Tapsoba rested from the start but had a good half when he came on numbers wise.
Decent value on a £1.28 bid and now we head towards the Quarters this can be a great time for the high baseline CB who can win a Gold Night on baseline alone.
Though Tapsoba has more goal threat than CB’s should really have a right to and can really explode.
Tough game but away at Benfica 1-1 has to be considered a good result to take home. They have a strong chance to progress from here and are favourites in both algorithm and betting.
Arsenal dominated so had they won could have put up some competitive totals.
Saka in particular. He’s gone from one of my bogie players of last season where I was scathing in my reviews due to his high price and questionable ability to something of an FIT darling this season.
He improved and showed the potential people always hoped for at almost exactly the time his price was rock bottom and under £1 in December. Spotting that made a very nice gain possible.
So if we had any cause to wonder whether some people are really paying attention to the numbers that matter – here is evidence that not enough people do and it hurts them. People will get better though, under the Matching Engine.
He made a nice run for his goal last night and had 2 other efforts. With a generally good all round contribution. Needs to stop wandering offside as this is currently costing him 5 to 15 points most games. But he’s just 19 and likely improves in this and in other aspects too.
Strong pick – and the only question again is similar to the Pedro Neto example from the article yesterday. He’s good… but he enjoys trader confidence and there are other good options who don’t and are therefore cheaper.
So changing horses would not be a bad call. But neither would holding him for what should be a decent Europa run and even just long term in general.
In a market that was functioning correctly we’d get more welcome choices like this.
Odegaard was excellent to watch. Can I be the first to coin the term Ozilgaard? And I mean Good Ozil. Not bad Ozil.
His superb pass to Soares set up the Saka goal and whilst this was a second assist, Odegaard could have racked up 2 assists last night. No shots himself but then he did get touches in the box and things can fall to him.
Early days but the more I see the more I like on him. It’s legitimate to wait for more evidence but then given he can had under £1 I would be happy just going for this based on the few games we have seen and his historic record and general profile.
Superb from Gabriel Magalhaes. He’s got strong distribution to pump his baselines when Arsenal dominate and he made over 100 passes here. Even had a good chance to score and he did versus Villa on 6th February too.
Again we should be on the lookout for good CB’s for the Quarters onwards as they can win on baseline alone. Gabriel is well under 40p with an all time high of over £1.50! And just 23. Really good long term hold for a patient trader on that cheap bid in my view.
What have Napoli done here? A real wasted opportunity in perhaps the easiest draw you could hope for at this stage.
To be fair, Napoli were decimated by injuries.
They look up against it now and both algorithm and betting are strongly expecting Granada to go through, even though Napoli are at home.
Personally I’m not entirely sure it’s that clear cut. Prior to this Granada conceded 9 times in 3 games so they are hardly an immovable object.
Ultimately it was a toothless performance but Napoli did dominate and the usual suspect Insigne was not far away. Ruiz and Elmas not bad either as per domestic scouting.
Plenty is riding on this particularly for Insigne who could do some real damage with access to those Quarter final Gold Nights. No surprise his bid price is dropping after this bad result.
He does at least have Euro 2020 for a backup late season reason to hold and is performing well week in, week out in Serie A where Napoli look likely to qualify for Europe next season.
I wouldn’t be overly stressed about his price fluctuations but it will be a disappointment if Napoli don’t progress against this side.
Great result for Ajax to overcome Lille 1-2 away from home. Algorithm and betting give them a strong chance to progress from here.
Ajax dominated and this is the sort of game Gravenberch could have done well out of, so a pity he was suspended for this one. But he will be available for the next.
Neres was surprisingly quiet but had a fantastic chance that he somehow managed to sky into the crossbar from close range. Think he was trying to lift it over the challenging defender and just got caught in two minds.
Not his best game but he is capable of big scores in later rounds and I like him as a cheap yet high potential transfer choice in general. Could really benefit if he gets access to the later rounds and reminds people he exists.
I have similar feelings on 20 year old Antony who was a threat last night and shows decent numbers in general. He’s twice the price as a fresh IPO.
This was actually a subdued game by his standards, he can do better. I like him and 84p on a bid or even 91p Blue Button is probably a fair price and unlikely to drop much given this is his starting price.
30 year old veteran Blind is disgustingly good for FI purposes. One of the most likely winners in the later rounds if Ajax progress. Makes it over 100 passes with high accuracy most games and often has chances to score, including last night.
Available under 20p… if anyone can find a more likely Gold Day winner for less money I’ll eat.. something. A hat. And at 30 is he really that high risk? Contract into next season and he’ll be there for Holland at the Euros too as a recognisable name that can win.
Could be a fun, and rewarding, punt that isn’t as radical as many might think.
16 February
Another win and another FI friendly display from Tuchel’s Chelsea.
On all recent evidence, Chelsea have gunned ahead and are taking a place amongst the elite teams of FI which have potential winners all over the pitch, like Bayern and Manchester City.
Before we get too carried away, it is worth bearing in mind that Tuchel has had a flat track. Only Spurs could be considered strong opponents and they did not play well.
Atletico and then Manchester United are coming up and these will be sterner tests.
Overall though, there is very strong cause for optimism on Chelsea assets. To succeed in the long term, they just need to keep dominating the mediocre or worse teams as they have been doing. It isn’t strictly required to stay in contention when playing tough teams.
The big story is Werner who finally broke his goalless streak as he has been threatening to. Which begs the question, why was his score of 99 so poor?
Starting with the obvious he did not get the matchwinner. He also lost -20 for 2 big chances missed and a further -10 for 2 fouls.
This isn’t too bad – he’s drifted down to baseline levels where he probably needs more than 1 goal on a competitive day. But he is also showing the goal threat that can get 2 or more goals – you have to be in the right place to miss big chances after all.
And the assist potential is strong as well, as evidenced by 2 assists in the last 5 games and the two key passes last night.
Most will look at the score of 99 with a goal and be disappointed, I actually see potential to hit or so and if you believe in such things as confidence he could push on from here and do very well for his £1.38 to £1.59.
We also saw wins, all be it soft bronze day scores of 207 and 198 for Alonso and Kovacic respectively. Both of whom were added to my Explosion Imminent list recently.
However they aren’t really on there for good baselines that can carry Bronze Days nice as that may be. They are there because they are looking extremely likely to hit 275 to 300 and smash Gold Days.
Alonso in particular is monstrous and undoubtedly one of FI’s best defenders given pitch time. I’ve said that for years – he’s proving it now. And looking very likely to hammer that home sometime soon. 5 shots last night plus 2 key passes… and it’s no accident he’s above 200 on baseline alone.
Possibly still available for 44p… those reluctant to go for this because of age are probably making a mistake, he’s only 30.
Rotation is a more valid fear and I might discuss Chilwell more in State of the Market later as an example of a tricky trade. But for that money you can accept some rotation with Alonso.
Kovacic is similar, he had another 2 shots last night and a good chance amongst those. Threatening.
Mount continues to excel as per previous reviews with a good display that bodes well for him keeping his place. Actually quite disappointing on FI numbers here in terms of overall contribution. But not too bad, and the previous 3 games were good. I remain confident on him.
Hudson-Odoi continues to give Reece James holders a headache. Had a good game to watch and likely gets more opportunities. Threat was poor with no shots but with 10 touches in the penalty area (some just on the line if we are being pedantic) he is definitely in the right places for things to fall to him.
He also contributed 2 key passes. Solid stuff that bodes very well for the long term given his trend profile and that he is still just 20. That battle with Reece James will worry some and no doubt lead some to sell but for the money I’d be happy with him as a long term hold and wouldn’t stress too much about price fluctuation on this. Provided he keeps playing well anyway.
One of Manchester United’s more dominant games so it’s a shame for holders United could not win the game. Big scores were possible.
Bruno Fernandes obviously the closest with a sublime goal. I suspect that even if this were the matchwinner Kroos has him beat yesterday anyway.
Bruno’s passing accuracy dipped off down to 70% and this hurt him – a player making a lot of passes is good – but without high accuracy this can work against them. It’s a punishment for risky and often creative passing that I’d like to see tweaked in the scoring system slightly to better reward players performing actions under pressure.
Still, overall it’s another open play goal and yet more evidence if we needed it that Bruno is consistently getting himself in the mix for performance as well as media and that’s why he is deserving of being one of the most expensive players on FI, and likely will be for some time to come unless something drastic changes.
McTominay’s scoring spree is no fluke. 3 in his last 4 and it could well have been another yesterday with 5 touches in the penalty area. None of those goals generated big scores but mainly because the team didn’t win or it wasn’t the matchwinner (or it was in the Cup!).
A goal makes McTominay competitive so this would be interesting news to traders. He’s not a player who normally features here but he’s playing his way into Scouting on merit.
We have been teased before like this recently, Ndombelé has been flirting with us in a similar role and all that threat then faded to nothing.
But it is worth noting that McTominay is threatening to put up a big score that would take most by surprise – if you see him getting forward like this regularly he could be a decent pick up.
Shaw may be in the form of his life, much to the disappointment of Alex Telles and any of his holders.
And that is translating from the real world onto FI – Shaw is now looking a very capable winner. And Telles is in fact slightly better for FI and the more likely winner all things being equal.
Shaw’s excellent form seems to have earned him clear first choice status though and Telles isn’t beating him from the bench.
I’d be comfortable going for Shaw at this stage, he is threatening a win and 71p is value. Holders will have to live with a bit of rotation but that’s ok. And even buying both to hedge this bet would be a good option given both are capable of winning – this tactic worked out well with Manchester City defenders recently.
And finally… I’ll say it again. Harry “The Fridge” Maguire is very likely to put up more big scores and at 85p or thereabouts people seem unaware of this, or if they are, may be letting the criticism put them off.
He’s a likely performance winner and one of the few defenders with some media appeal – particularly as he remains in the driving seat for England heading into Euro 2020.
Rashford is doing better than his scoring history from this season suggests. Also getting criticism from fans for being wasteful which is quite fair recently.
Yet, he’s often just a matchwinner from getting to around 210-220 and if he can add an assist too you can see him clearing 250. Threat and creativity is strong in recent games.
He’s been around so long he feels like a veteran but he’s still just 23 and I would suspect those taking advantage of the bad patch to pick him up at £2.47+ with the Europa and Euro 2020 to come would do well.
Greenwood I covered in my wonderkids article – a good bench appearance here and per minute his numbers are excellent.
Looking closer to wins than ever, even if he probably needs at least a season or two to develop. And at a time when the price is lower than it has been for a good while.
Such a classic FI mentality breakdown – the type of person who gets over optimistic for youngsters is then probably amongst the first to panic sell when things are tough – this opens up value very often.
Thing is, that type of person is also quite likely to buy them back if they win and look at that previous £10 price as an “anchor” – believing it should return there.
I’m not convinced he deserves that anytime soon but Greenwood a season or two from now playing regularly would likely fetch £4 fairly easily so getting him under £2 now is sound.
A nice win for Arsenal although it was a tough game for FI scoring with limited possession. Which is not surprising as not many teams get much change out of Leeds – they should be considered a tough opponent to face on FI.
And the goals went to Aubameyang, one of Arsenal’s least suitable players for FI – and he is very unlucky not to get the matchwinner when scoring 3 of the 4 goals. Otherwise he would beat Lukaku to the dividend yesterday.
It’s hard to back Aubameyang because he has to score at least 2 to seriously challenge. If I did, it would likely be in soft Europa ties and Benfica up next is winnable. But, in current market conditions we don’t need to be punting on very occasional veteran winners to find value.
Still, it’s another example of what I’ve been saying – lots of these big club “IPD strikers” are not dead – they can force their way in on explosive days, just as Lukaku showed last night.
The most interesting thing to watch was Odegaard’s start. I’ve been optimistic for him at Arsenal and he had a solid debut, if not spectacular.
He didn’t see a great deal of the ball but then Leeds press hard. The playing position is promising, very advanced and he got forward plenty and managed a couple of shots. And had a key pass, too.
We need to see him in a game where Arsenal can dominate – and that may be a little while. Arsenal should beat Benfica but they will be no pushovers. Then they have Manchester City and Leicester. Burnley after that is a chance, and Tottenham might be too if Mourinho goes defensive as he often does in competitive games.
Overall what we have seen from Odegaard so far in two appearances is encouraging and whilst we could wait to see more, the under £1 price tag combined with favourable early numbers (plus what we know about him historically) would be good enough for me.
Fulham don’t win many games yet actually have an FI friendly style. It would not be totally outrageous to see a Fulham winner this season.
But it is more for future potential if any of these players move to other clubs that we might watch them.
Lookman in particular looks really strong and I would call him their most likely winner. No goals in 5 but the threat is good. Creates a lot more than his assist record suggests, too. All with overall involvement that would shame most big club forwards.
If you see him moving to a bigger club in future, he could be a very solid fit for FI.
Loftus-Cheek’s rehabilitation is going well, too. Decent performances at Fulham and he is proving fitness. It’s tough at Fulham but he is showing that same performance suitability in his numbers that made him of interest in the first place in his Chelsea days.
Over the last 5 he’s had good chances to score and is hinting we may see him on the scoresheet before too long. Most likely, he’ll score but Fulham won’t win and it won’t count for much!
But he may be in the mix for a role at Chelsea or a move to a different club come Summer.
22p to 43p today – this was a rough drop for holders as he collapsed from £2.48 after a bad performance on the wrong day when the market was really starting to struggle in September. But he does have underlying ability and it may not all be over for him.
15 February
One of Manchester United’s more dominant games so it’s a shame for holders United could not win the game. Big scores were possible.
Bruno Fernandes obviously the closest with a sublime goal. I suspect that even if this were the matchwinner Kroos has him beat yesterday anyway.
Bruno’s passing accuracy dipped off down to 70% and this hurt him – a player making a lot of passes is good – but without high accuracy this can work against them. It’s a punishment for risky and often creative passing that I’d like to see tweaked in the scoring system slightly to better reward players performing actions under pressure.
Still, overall it’s another open play goal and yet more evidence if we needed it that Bruno is consistently getting himself in the mix for performance as well as media and that’s why he is deserving of being one of the most expensive players on FI, and likely will be for some time to come unless something drastic changes.
McTominay’s scoring spree is no fluke. 3 in his last 4 and it could well have been another yesterday with 5 touches in the penalty area. None of those goals generated big scores but mainly because the team didn’t win or it wasn’t the matchwinner (or it was in the Cup!).
A goal makes McTominay competitive so this would be interesting news to traders. He’s not a player who normally features here but he’s playing his way into Scouting on merit.
We have been teased before like this recently, Ndombelé has been flirting with us in a similar role and all that threat then faded to nothing.
But it is worth noting that McTominay is threatening to put up a big score that would take most by surprise – if you see him getting forward like this regularly he could be a decent pick up.
Shaw may be in the form of his life, much to the disappointment of Alex Telles and any of his holders.
And that is translating from the real world onto FI – Shaw is now looking a very capable winner. And Telles is in fact slightly better for FI and the more likely winner all things being equal.
Shaw’s excellent form seems to have earned him clear first choice status though and Telles isn’t beating him from the bench.
I’d be comfortable going for Shaw at this stage, he is threatening a win and 71p is value. Holders will have to live with a bit of rotation but that’s ok. And even buying both to hedge this bet would be a good option given both are capable of winning – this tactic worked out well with Manchester City defenders recently.
And finally… I’ll say it again. Harry “The Fridge” Maguire is very likely to put up more big scores and at 85p or thereabouts people seem unaware of this, or if they are, may be letting the criticism put them off.
He’s a likely performance winner and one of the few defenders with some media appeal – particularly as he remains in the driving seat for England heading into Euro 2020.
Rashford is doing better than his scoring history from this season suggests. Also getting criticism from fans for being wasteful which is quite fair recently.
Yet, he’s often just a matchwinner from getting to around 210-220 and if he can add an assist too you can see him clearing 250. Threat and creativity is strong in recent games.
He’s been around so long he feels like a veteran but he’s still just 23 and I would suspect those taking advantage of the bad patch to pick him up at £2.47+ with the Europa and Euro 2020 to come would do well.
Greenwood I covered in my wonderkids article – a good bench appearance here and per minute his numbers are excellent.
Looking closer to wins than ever, even if he probably needs at least a season or two to develop. And at a time when the price is lower than it has been for a good while.
Such a classic FI mentality breakdown – the type of person who gets over optimistic for youngsters is then probably amongst the first to panic sell when things are tough – this opens up value very often.
Thing is, that type of person is also quite likely to buy them back if they win and look at that previous £10 price as an “anchor” – believing it should return there.
I’m not convinced he deserves that anytime soon but Greenwood a season or two from now playing regularly would likely fetch £4 fairly easily so getting him under £2 now is sound.
A nice win for Arsenal although it was a tough game for FI scoring with limited possession. Which is not surprising as not many teams get much change out of Leeds – they should be considered a tough opponent to face on FI.
And the goals went to Aubameyang, one of Arsenal’s least suitable players for FI – and he is very unlucky not to get the matchwinner when scoring 3 of the 4 goals. Otherwise he would beat Lukaku to the dividend yesterday.
It’s hard to back Aubameyang because he has to score at least 2 to seriously challenge. If I did, it would likely be in soft Europa ties and Benfica up next is winnable. But, in current market conditions we don’t need to be punting on very occasional veteran winners to find value.
Still, it’s another example of what I’ve been saying – lots of these big club “IPD strikers” are not dead – they can force their way in on explosive days, just as Lukaku showed last night.
The most interesting thing to watch was Odegaard’s start. I’ve been optimistic for him at Arsenal and he had a solid debut, if not spectacular.
He didn’t see a great deal of the ball but then Leeds press hard. The playing position is promising, very advanced and he got forward plenty and managed a couple of shots. And had a key pass, too.
We need to see him in a game where Arsenal can dominate – and that may be a little while. Arsenal should beat Benfica but they will be no pushovers. Then they have Manchester City and Leicester. Burnley after that is a chance, and Tottenham might be too if Mourinho goes defensive as he often does in competitive games.
Overall what we have seen from Odegaard so far in two appearances is encouraging and whilst we could wait to see more, the under £1 price tag combined with favourable early numbers (plus what we know about him historically) would be good enough for me.
Fulham don’t win many games yet actually have an FI friendly style. It would not be totally outrageous to see a Fulham winner this season.
But it is more for future potential if any of these players move to other clubs that we might watch them.
Lookman in particular looks really strong and I would call him their most likely winner. No goals in 5 but the threat is good. Creates a lot more than his assist record suggests, too. All with overall involvement that would shame most big club forwards.
If you see him moving to a bigger club in future, he could be a very solid fit for FI.
Loftus-Cheek’s rehabilitation is going well, too. Decent performances at Fulham and he is proving fitness. It’s tough at Fulham but he is showing that same performance suitability in his numbers that made him of interest in the first place in his Chelsea days.
Over the last 5 he’s had good chances to score and is hinting we may see him on the scoresheet before too long. Most likely, he’ll score but Fulham won’t win and it won’t count for much!
But he may be in the mix for a role at Chelsea or a move to a different club come Summer.
22p to 43p today – this was a rough drop for holders as he collapsed from £2.48 after a bad performance on the wrong day when the market was really starting to struggle in September. But he does have underlying ability and it may not all be over for him.
14 February
Yikes. This Liverpool form would have been unthinkable just a couple of months ago. But here we are.
Underneath those results though they aren’t doing all that badly in performance terms. And they actually looked good versus Leicester until they imploded late on.
Now in a battle for a top 4 finish at all and missing out would really hurt Liverpool. In form Leipzig will be fancying their chances too in the coming CL game.
That’s difficult for holders of the big ticket players. Alexander-Arnold will be the most vulnerable to a knockout where as cheaper players like Jones are generally held with the longer term in mind and I would not expect him to suffer too badly because of a CL knockout.
Salah too has taken a kicking due to this poor Liverpool form and possible exit talk. But will he go lower than £1.44? Maybe, in this market which feels back in a gloomy mood. Yet, he’s looking good and for those who back a Liverpool turn around… he is well within range of further wins.
Alexander-Arnold is looking the most likely Liverpool winner in recent games. He was a big threat yesterday, and even over the last 4 games even when he registers no shots he is in the box and regularly in the right place for things to fall to him.
He’s also coming back to a more sensible price. I warmed to him again at the £2 to £2.50 range a month ago, but as discussed here, that return to £5 was just too much too soon and I am not at all surprised he has dropped again.
You can now call him a sensible price again and there is a good chance he wins soon and recovers some ground. I would however be nervous about the potential CL knockout if holding which makes him tricky.
Robertson at that £1.35 bid looks less of a headache. He’s a little bit behind TAA but not by much and he is well in contention for wins. And probably a less high profile whipping boy if Liverpool exit the CL too. For that reason I’d call him the current better bet.
Not one of Curtis Jones’ better games on FI but still pretty competitive. And in reality he did well and holders can really just be happy he’s getting more minutes.
Thiago was poor to watch here and is increasingly under pressure – his story has turned from “majestic midfield maestro” to “reason Liverpool are losing” in a short space of time.
He’s certainly not looking his best and taking time to adapt. Yet even in games he is perceived to be poor in, his FI numbers hold up pretty well. Really not far away from wins at all but this is not a patient market and with negative talk around him and Liverpool in general it is no surprise to see the price dropping.
Tough call. I’d say dropping a player who is capable of exploding for well under £1 seems a bit knee jerk. But there are also players at a similar price that have fewer current headaches. I’d probably stick for now.
Overall, some value here and some likely winners – normally I would be taking advantage of what is overall a good team just in a bad patch of form. But I am worried about a negative market reaction to a potential CL upset, even if Liverpool remain favourites.
Another magnificent City display. They look unstoppable.
Rodri finally got the big win and he has looked due at least one of those over a season. I’ve been mentioning him in Scouting this season for this reason and not many agreed with me since the price often languished close to 50p on bids.
He was considered a “nearly man” for obvious reasons but he does have goal threat good enough for 3-4 a season and they can really count.
This goal came in bizarre fashion as he apparently just fancied the penalty and nobody stopped him! I won’t be expecting that to be a regular thing, especially because he very nearly fluffed it. However he can nick an odd goal without that and produce totals that are tough to beat.
I was pleased to see it as getting a ~50% or so profit from the very likely event of a big score/win from Rodri was something of a pet project of mine for the season. Box ticked.
There are lots of examples of these forgotten men who can deliver a very swift and sizable profit, Demirbay being another recent example.
With patience that big score is very likely to come so targetting them when they are down and unpopular then showing a bit of patience can really bring rewards.
With Rodri unlikely to win again next week, he would be one I would cash out on the win, not waiting for the dividend itself. But I’d definitely go back to him if he dropped to 70p or so again.
Gundogan… form of his life? Possibly. These goals are no accident. He’s only 30 and perhaps incredibly still available for under £1 after all he has done. He has climbed from well under 50p so he has had significant reward.
But the price stubbornly sticking around £1 shows how nervy traders are of 30+ year olds at the moment, even with long contracts.
Perhaps him coming off early with injury blunted his charge, and he’s unlucky not to beat Rodri really. With another 20 minutes he’d have been close, and then it’s just the matchwinner in it.
If that injury isn’t too bad, and it is not expected to be, 75p is clear value for a player this hot particularly head of those juicy CL ties versus Gladbach. The domestic calender with Everton and Arsenal next are tough but City aren’t going to be fearing them right now.
Elsewhere, as with recent reviews, it’s a case of potential winners all over the park.
Bernardo Silva, Cancelo and Zinchenko look particularly strong right now.
Sterling a massive improver too – really close to wins now and unlucky not to be dropping more matchwinners. Very clear value at £1.63 to £1.95 with the CL and Euro 2020 to come.
Outclassed by City. But easier games to come particularly Wolfsberg in the Europa 32 up next.
Kane is looking dangerous as ever. Usually needs more than just 1 goal to get up there but I see a good period ahead for him.
His recent injury dropped the price some and with Spurs expected to go deep in the Europa 32 and then Euro 2020 on the way for the media Kane looks a really solid choice at £3.32 or close to that.
Son is good value at the moment too as I’ve covered a few times and I’d fancy him for these Europa nights to come.
Perhaps frustratingly with me having highlighted Ndombelé‘s none existant goal threat in February, he actually had two shots here. Not consistent enough to go all in on this but there are some signs of life, enough for it to be worth keeping an eye on.
16 February
Should have been a walkover vs Arminia Bielefeld. Wasn’t.
I am sure fatigue from their World Club Cup game this week did not help. They rotated heavily. And to top it all heavy snow probably didn’t help.
Likely they return to winning ways soon although Eintracht up next are in form and will be tough.
In general though they have very favourable fixtures ahead including Lazio in the CL.
Injuries are racking up though – Muller has COVID. Gnabry now out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring twinge. Goretzka expected back at the end of this month.
Tolisso was started and did well, scoring a good goal. Overall his numbers are excellent and they almost always are. His problem is not FI ability it’s getting consistent games.
This is good for holders though as he is showing when on the pitch that he’s still got ability – the expectation is he will move on in Summer and if he lands at a decent Europa/CL club where he is a starter it is likely he becomes relevant.
In the meantime, when given a game when covering for injuries etc he is capable of winning even now.
This was one of Sané’s better games for FI. Had chances and if he had a goal and Bayern won he’d be in a competitive range most likely. Perhaps they relied on him more in the absence of established stars.
A good long term pick given he is still just 25 and available well under £1 now. He’s doing a lot better than his 8 game goal drought might suggest.
Coman remains well in contention when playing. Actually, with Gnabry out it could be a good period for both Sané and Coman who will be relied on more. Both value.
And Coman has done a lot to prove fitness now. He’ll have that question mark hanging over him but it has been a while without an accident for him. If there is a time to take the plunge on him it is ahead of a CL run when the rewards are potentially highest.
Early transfer news – Upamecano has signed for Summer. This could suppress the price short term as traders think there will be no media hype or EPL links. If so, I’d happily snap him up for £1.25 or under.
Upamecano can win from Leipzig this season and we’ll be optimistic for him at Bayern come summer too. And most likely for France at the Euro.
15 February
Another win for Frankfurt who move up to 3rd in the Bundesliga with 5 wins in 6 games.
André Silva leads the charge, another goal here – his 7th in 6 matches. 1 goal is not enough for him but 2 might be. He’s had 2 braces in that run of games and been unlucky to miss out on the matchwinner both times.
If he explodes and wins before the season is out it will be no surprise. Plus he has Euro 2020 with Portugal and as the Bundesliga’s second top scorer with 18 goals now… he’s probably going to get linked to big clubs come Summer. Or at least, Frankfurt look good for a European spot next season.
Lots of ways to win there for an under 50p player.
21 year old defender N’Dicka won the defender dividend, with the matchwinner falling to him. On first glance many might consider him to be one of these often irritating “spoiler” players who show up with a big score from nowhere to deny dividends to more popular players.
However, looking at his numbers he’s actually not bad for a centre back. And the goal threat has been solid for 3 games in a row. Decent distribution too which is always a good feature and popular with big clubs.
Not exactly a player I think we should be desperate to sign up but given the age and longer term potential to move to a bigger club… 36p to 53p is good. Worth noting that he is more than just a random spoiler, we may see decent scores a few times a season. .
14 February
Yet another disappointing performance from Dortmund whose spot in next season’s CL is by no means assured.
They have Sevilla up next in this season’s CL and that now looks a 50/50.
The bigger news is off pitch, as Dortmund are reportedly keen to sell so a departure for Sancho looks extremely likely. And maybe Haaland will move on a season sooner than expected too.
Both were on the scoresheet here.
I’ve reported on Sancho’s strong numbers in recent months and he’s showing consistency in recent games too.
He’s showing enough for the social media commentators to make a case that he can be a success at Manchester United, if indeed he does go. And they may not even be wrong.
So I may bet on the hype if that looked likely, but I don’t think I would bet on him actually realising his potential there.
In their current system, Manchester United’s wing slots are unlikely to help him – I would expect him to be worse than at Dortmund at least for the first season. And he’ll be under a lot of pressure to justify his considerable hype.
With the price down again at under £6 I’be happy with this for the time being, at least to profit from any hype and expectation. Holders have got to monitor the gossip very carefully because if United pick a different priority he could end up in trouble.
Haaland is more difficult because he is very poor for performance scoring and it’s very difficult for anyone to argue any differently. We’ve known that since Salzburg days. By now, it’s very obvious to almost everyone.
To win this bet he must move to the EPL where he can pick up media.
You could also hope for a tweak to FI scoring but it is a goals centric platform as it is – any tweak that made Haaland one of the best FI players would essentially turn FI into not just a goals centric platform but basically a goals only platform – and that’s just not a sustainable product because it would make picking winners too easy to create value in a market.
It’s much more likely that a tweak to the scoring brought in Mbappé for example who makes more of an overall contribution, even if it doesn’t currently get rewarded on FI as much as people would expect.
So I am nervy for Haaland but Dortmund’s form and financial problems make a transfer this Summer more likely. And the price has dipped.
At times betting on Haaland at higher prices has been extremely reckless. It’s not a bad bet these days but holders will have to monitor the gossip closely – it is far from the “safe” hold many would claim it is.
15 February
FI friendly Sassuolo have been quiet lately, missing key man Berardi through injury and enduring a 6 game winless run which they finally ended yesterday.
Berardi opened the scoring on his first start back after injury, and had he had the matchwinner, he’s running Lukaku very close for the win, probably coming in about 10 points behind.
Really, with an incredible 10 shots, he could/should be scoring 2 or more here.
He also lost 40 points for fouls, offsides, a big chance missed and conceding a goal. So, it shows that he remains well in range of very big 250+ scores.
With his injury, many traders seem to have forgotten his quality given he is under £1, but Berardi provides us with a reminder here. Winnable games vs Bologna and Torino up next, too.
Locatelli has appeared quiet too in this run of poor Sassuolo forn. Yet, he remains well in range of wins and just 1 goal could see him sail beyond 250.
He’s getting a few chances in recent games and generally has enough for 4-5 goals a season – and those can be worth waiting for because a matchwinner could deliver a very big score capable of sweeping a Gold Day.
In the previous game Boga had to come off early with an injury, and he missed this fixture too. Fortunately it should not keep him out more than week or two.
He’s got promise as an FI player and could be up there with Berardi. But he’s endured a frustrating season with minor injuries and COVID absences.
Still has just enough time left in the season to prove himself if he can stay fit.
Lukaku wins and is just the latest to fly the flag for the former “IPD strikers”. As I’ve said a bunch of times since IPD was removed – life on FI is not over for the big club out and out strikers.
Even if they aren’t exactly textbook performance players, it’s already a goals centric platform and even the most atrocious FI player can challenge with 2 or 3 goals. Particularly in late stage Europa/CL games.
Last night was Lukaku’s night. And on a bid of around £1 I’d still consider him value especially with a 6-12 month view.
Belgium are Euro 2020 favourites and he’ll likely be in demand there. Plus at the same time, we’ll likely be anticipating another Inter CL campaign ahead. And in the mean time he is capable of more wins. Solid pick.
Equally you could go for Lautaro Martinez at a similar price, possibly slightly cheaper. he’s likely to get good transfer rumours again come Summer, possibly even to the EPL.
There is talk of a new Inter contract… but then for the money that is not a bad outcome for a holder, he is value either way. And an EPL move somewhere like Manchester City puts a potential jackpot on the table.
I like the pick these days.
The Eriksen saga continues to take twists, after he surprisingly stuck around in January. Now Conte is talking him up and starting him.
This could be important because given minutes he is very competitive at Inter, which is what made him appealling in the first place way back when he first moved there.
The best recent example of this is his performance versus Benevento on 30th January. He dominated here and was very close to a huge 275 or even 300+ total with just 1 goal, and he had 4 shots.
Since, he has played tough games with Juventus twice and then Lazio yesterday who dominated possession. Inter do clam up versus tough opponents which hurts performance scores.
However they can open up versus softer sides so games like Genoa and Parma coming up would be great opportunities for Eriksen if he can keep his place.
Eriksen at Inter has been a big drama and for those forced to hold throughout his Inter career, tempted in (correctly) by his promising numbers, it’s tough to endure.
Yet, over that year Eriksen has created a lot of opportunities for himself to bounce back, be that with a move elsewhere or by playing his way back in at Inter. Quality players can fall victim to bad luck just like bad players, but at least the quality players can dig themselves out of it eventually.
Hakimi too may be due a comeback story. He’s improved and with his chances it is a surprise he has not scored in 8 games. For a full back, the threat is really strong.
Holders were way over optimistic on him early on as covered here. Going into the season with him at £3.50 was… brave. Especially once we saw the early disappointing numbers.
But he’s improved now and is available for around £1. Good pick.
Lazio dominated the ball versus Inter but that’s rarely going to show if they don’t win.
What is worth noting though is improved form for Milinkovic-Savic, a second goal in 4 games for him from a free kick.
He also won the Serie A Most Valuable Player award in January. He’s playing really well and this is what holders need to get those transfer rumours flying again. He’s been reliant on getting The Big Transfer for 2-3 seasons now, which has never quite come through.
Maybe this Summer will finally be his year. In the mean time, he’s improved at Lazio and 1 matchwinner should see him in contention. Unlucky, for example that his goal on 24th January was not the matchwinner or he’d be well clear of 250.
57p top 75p, probably because many veteran traders are frustrated by the transfer that never happens. But he’s a quality player capable of winning now and with a big transfer in him, the coming months could be a good time to be holding him.
Elsewhere, Luis Alberto is now back after an emergency appendecitis scare. He was in great form before that and looking dangerous.
That injury has brought the price down under £1 but he’s a very consistent player and unlikely to have declined… much more likely traders are just significantly undervaluing him.
14 February
Insigne isn’t the first to lose out to that dastardly Messi and he won’t be the last. Messi is a cheat code on FI.
Still, Insigne being in the mix for wins this often is no fluke – it’s because he’s a fantastic FI fit.
With a matchwinner most days I’d expect him to be scoring higher and clearing 250. But I can forgive a 211 versus Juventus, Napoli did well to win.
Interesting example of how Match Day Extra contributes to a Match Day in practice. Spoiler: it doesn’t.
In principle I like it but the payout issue I highlighted at the time is dragging it back – a 1p win is not meaningful. In a (noble?) attempt to give every dog a chance to win a 1p dividend, they made it too wide and now nobody cares about winning 1p.
I think this should be closed up to just 1-2 winners per category a week for a more meaningful dividend win of 3p.
And secondly, these things are not tracked live on the app on a match day and therefore add nothing to the match day experience! If we want people to care about a 1p dividend then we have to let them see the scores moving on the day, or it just gets forgotten.
I don’t think Match Day Extra, or even Team of the Month actually, are really improving the Match Day Experience (which is my shorthand for “Is using FI making football more fun?”).
In the back of my mind I’m starting to think whether dropping MDE and Team of the Month and just having a 2nd or 3rd placed winner on the actual match days themsleves might be better.
It’s simpler – we’ll have condensed all performance dividends into a single mechanic and way to win. And mainly because it will be tracked on the app, instantly reward people, and then we might care that Insigne came in second yesterday.
As much as FI is a long term platform you still need that match day excitement. Another example yesterday is Tapsoba being beaten by random spoiler Lowton – this is not fun.
Oh and another thought. In a CL week – Insigne’s chances of retaining his spot on the MDE leaderboard with 211 are pretty much zero.
MDE, and Team of the Month, are pretty much stitched up in favour of CL/Europa players which is another reason I favour them. We may well see Insigne there but it will be because of his score against Granada next Thursday if anything.
Other Napoli players are available for those games but none of them are close to Insigne’s level on recent form or just in general.
Fabian Ruiz doesn’t look particularly close to wins but he can be an occasional winner and his trend fit and possible transfer is likely to save him.
Zielinski is being rotated more and more and his threat has dipped. Earlier in 2021 he looked hot, not so much now.
Youngster Elmas is starting to get more minutes and if he is given a full game he could in theory win. But this is a patience required scenario.
A wasteful Juventus fall to Napoli, a real blow to their title ambitions.
In general, they are in good form and showing FI friendly stuff with good fixtures to come, particularly Porto up next in the CL. That’s about as kind as you get in the R16.
These nights often belong to Ronaldo and if he were to explode there it should surprise precisely nobody who is paying attention. He’s getting the number of chances in recent games that make braces and hatricks likely.
Arguably, with a CL run into Gold Nights plus Euro 2020 ahead there is no better time of the season to be holding Ronaldo.
Rich rewards are certainly on offer and it is tempting. It is a brave trader who shops in the 35 and old price range though.
It’s very likely he is still around next season at Juventus (or if you believe the more outrageous rumours – Manchester United again!).
The most likely way to lose this bet is a really serious injury at this age. And that can just happen and there is often little you can do other than watch the games closely and try to panic sell if he goes down badly.
Tricky. Under £2 is a tempting price and it’s not exactly my cup of tea but if there is a time to hold him it’s probably the months ahead.
Chiesa is more my taste and is getting more so. Excellent display here. He’s really become a key Juventus player very quickly. 5 shots last night and 4 key passes. More freedom to go where he wants than he had initially too. Getting even better. Around £1 is just slam dunk value that should just not be possible if the market was functioning properly.
Morata is not to be ruled out either. Another striker thrown on the “IPD player” scrapheap but that’s unfair. He’s capable of big scores over a season – either on explosive 2+ goal days or even actually with 1 matchwinner, he’s better than he was at Atletico. A potential bargain that is very likely to have his big days for well under 50p now.
Dybala expected to make his return soon, possibly in time for the CL game versus Porto. Contract still up in the air and that’s ok, holders have no need to be disappointed whether he stays or goes.
An EPL move is a jackpot but equally if they are going to keep him for the money he is demanding then they are also very likely to play him. Either is fine.
15 February
In last week’s Scouting I highlighted a good start for Alejandro Gomez, former FI powerhouse at Atalanta.
We’ve got another game on him to look at now from Saturday and he looks to have made the transition to La Liga without skipping a beat.
He looks to be hitting a similar level to what he had at Atalanta, and veterans will know how competitive that is, at least and possibly even 
.
Next up is Dortmund in the CL which is tough but Sevilla will be fancying this based on the form. And I don’t think Sevilla will be punished too harshly if they go out there.
They’ve got two nice ties in La Liga vs Osasuna and Elche coming up too.
If we see an explosion for Gomez then people will run with the “Gomez is back!” narrative. And they would be right… but they’d just be right that crucial week or two later than those of us who saw it was very possible before it appeared on the scoreboard.
Long time holders will be breathing a sigh of relief because this could have gone very badly if he had made the move to an ineligible league as was rumoured.
But now that he has a long contract again and the Atalanta uncertainty is cleared away, it looks a great time to return to him.
3 wins on the bounce now for Real Madrid as Zidane steadies the ship once again. This probably staves off immediate danger of the sack but that remains hanging over him.
We might be slightly more optimistic than we were a week ago of their CL chances versus Atalanta.
Kroos takes another Gold Day Star Man with a goal, assist and the generally all round midfield maestro display we know and love him for.
As reported here, he’s in a good spell with indisputed key player status. if Real overcome Atalanta and reach those lucrative Gold Nights, Kroos could be a big beneficiary.
Under £2 is a fair price and I can see reasons to hold him for the rest of the season and even into next, with opportunities to trade in and out perhaps around any big CL games.
Once we get into next season and he’s approaching 32 we’ll start to be sweating a bit on age. But not just yet.
Carvajal went down injured and likely misses the CL match at least. The squad is thin at the moment and likely Vazquez fills in. He’s a capable budget winner at under 30p for those who like a punt.
Vazquez dropping back is helpful for others like Asensio and possibly Rodrygo as it opens up space.
Asensio is a big improver lately and had another good game here. No goal but he had plenty of chances and made a big all round contribution. A real cut above most forwards, if he can get scoring regularly we will see him at the top of the leaderboard come match day. Really is excellent for FI when firing.
Vinicius is getting better reviews from the pundits recently. The threat in the last 5 has been abysmal with no real shots of note. But the overall contribution to the game is good and the assist potential is strong. He is also getting plenty of touches in the penalty area so things can easily fall to him.
I think after so long waiting and hoping a Vinicius win would shock many traders. But if he keeps starting and playing like this then I would not be surprised if a goal got him in contention at all. Looks value as per my wonderkid article.
Rodrygo has found minutes more difficult to come by but he’s been injured. Close to a return though. Again, given a full 90 he can put up big scores but he has not had many chances this season. As per the wonderkids article, I suspect people are too negative on him right now given the rock bottom price tag. He’s got so much time on his side.
Benzema scored. He had the threat for at least 2 goals. If someone asked me to make a list of the former “IPD strikers” who were likely to prove they are now being underestimated as Lukaku did last night – Benzema would be up there.
14 February
Well. I’m not sure readers need me to point out how good Messi is for what must be the 30th time this season.
This can just keep happening again and again and under Koeman he is better than ever, at least for FI purposes. And he’s never exactly been bad.
As long as you see him at either PSG or Manchester United next season, and you are happy to risk a serious injury price collapse… there is value here.
My pricing guidance on the Dashboard suggests we shouldn’t pay more than £5.60 for an over 31 player and Messi being 33… he’s pushing it. But he’s also not a normal player.
He breaks my system. I peg a 
player as being able to challenge 10-15+ times per season, and Messi can get well beyond that.
Plus the media if he moved especially to the EPL would be off the charts, and may well stay that way for the entire first season.
Outside of a shock major injury or move to Inter Miami or similar… this is likely to go well for holders in a variety of scenarios. A stay at Barcelona is not great and will result in a price drop too, but likely not a major one.
Not without it’s risks but overall I’d say I’d be happy with this as a premium option.
At the other end of the career lifecycle we have Trincao who came out of my “Real Wonderkids” article well this week. I noted his excellent first goal recently and he has followed that up with a brace here – superb for his development and chances of more pitch time. He’s now rivalling the also excellent Dembelé for minutes.
Like his matchwinner in the previous games, these were lovely cool finishes. Ice in his veins this boy.
Yet, with 2 goals 161 can feel a bit disappointing. Mainly, that’s because when you score twice you usually get the matchwinner, but not always in a 5-1 rout. That went to Messi.
He also lost -15 for 2 offsides and a foul, plus -5 for conceding. He’s not particularly prone to that behaviour although Barca are leaky lately even if they outscore the opposition.
Encouraging display overall and since when has a 21 year old scored 3 in 2 games for Barcelona and stayed under 75p!? This is very unusual to veterans of FI. Perhaps people think he should have done better than 161 because he lacked the matchwinner, or don’t yet trust him because he is only now finding form halfway through the season.
Playing like this though, he is likely to reinforce his quality more in future. Encouraging display that at least should earn more minutes.
I also highlighted 17 year old Ilaix Moriba in midweek and as it happens he got a La Liga debut yesterday. He played very well, only a sloppy pass that led to Alaves’ goal blemishing an otherwise strong 64 minutes.
He provided an assist and had a good chance himself. Nice on pitch position for FI.
Very encouraging – I included him for a reason in the wonderkids run down – he looks the real deal and he is great value at under £1 for a patient holder.
Pedri was also excellent for his ~30 minutes off the bench. Another genuine contender at Barcelona who could become an important player for them. Goal threat is weak lately but it was decent in late 2020 and early 2021 over a good 10 games.
Puig also got the full game after a difficult start to the season where is minutes were surprisingly curtailed by Koeman. He did really well to make over 100 passes with a 94% completion rate. High baseline stuff and if he was first team he could add 4-5 goals over a season potentially to make those count.
Likely he drops back to the bench but he’ll be happy with the minutes and it’s worth remembering he has quality when given chances.
A pair of assists for Griezmann somewhat make up for his missed chances – he could have added 2 goals of his own to that tally. Don’t believe the negativity from this season – he’s looking very close to winning again soon.
11 February
Worth quickly noting that we have seen 3 appearances now in the League and Cup for Gomez at Sevilla after his move from Atalanta.
He has really landed on his feet after rumours of a move out of eligible leagues.
Per minute, his display at Sevilla is as impressive as it was for Atalanta – and veterans will know how good Gomez can be.
It’s early days but the initial indicators, including a spectacular first goal vs Getafe, are very encouraging. He’s got a long contract now so we can be less worried about him still being around next season.
Under 70p on a bid potentially and looks well in contention for a big score soon.
15 February
Monaco’s superb 8 game winning run comes to an end versus Lorient. But Ben Yedder at least rescued the draw in injury time.
Monaco are in great form overall with some promising fixtures ahead (Although PSG are next which should be a good game). They may be out of European competition but are looking very good for a spot next season.
And with some excellent young players as well as some established options they are offering us good value particularly with a 6-12 month view.
Yedder scores twice and offered another reminder that “IPD Strikers” at the bigger clubs are by no means dead. We can be taking advantage of the over negativity in this space, which is the result of lazy analysis.
When the news of IPD dropping away first hit – there is little you can do but sell as quickly as possible, even with players like Ben Yedder or Lukaku at the time.
Yet after those extreme price drops, we can re-evaluate. Lukaku was always likely to strong arm his way back into contention and he did last night. Yedder can do the same.
They are particularly attractive with Europa/CL campaigns ahead. And both Yedder and Lukaku look good for that next season, if not this one. And can both deliver occasional wins now. Morata is similar, and there are lots of these options. Immobile for sure. Andre Silva.
I do not think we should be afraid to hoover up the rock bottom “IPD Strikers” who actually remain well in contention.
Young CB Badiashile from my wonderkid feature last week very nearly underlined my point. Over 100 passes, and provided an assist. He likes to get forward by CB standards and has great distribution. Should be in demand come Summer.
I also covered young midfielder Tchouameni in the wonderkids series, another good game for him here. A capable winner now and at just 21 and a Monaco regular now he’s looking very well for a player with no current bid price whatsoever.
They missed Golovin who pulled out late with an injury, unclear if serious. It shows how reactionary traders are right now that because of missing a game he may be available again for as low as £1.27. This is a player who smashed performance scoring with 325 just over a week ago and could easily clear 250 again before too long.
If people are really taking a price that low just because he felt a twinge in his thigh before a game I’d exploit this madness.
14 February
In a now familiar tale the talk is of Neymar and yet another injury which knocks him out of the tie with Barcelona.
The algorithm was already tightening in Barcelona’s favour and it now give’s PSG just a 30% chance of progression.
And indeed once you take Neymar out of that teamsheet it starts to look pretty average, Mbappé aside. Especially with Di Maria (still yet to renew his contract) sidelined too and likely to miss the Barcelona game.
Mbappé had a really good game yesterday for FI purposes, he’s in range of wins but nowhere near enough for the money.
A tough one because to win this bet you need the EPL move to actually happen, which is probably more of a pipe dream and Real Madrid is the most likely destination if he moves. He could even stay, and that would be disappointing to many but actually pretty good for his prospects, not being a great FI fit he needs the easiest league.
Or, you hope for a change to the FI scoring system in his favour which is very possible but not something I’d be making outrageous bets on.
Icardi is a good bet for those who back an upset versus Barcelona, or those who just want to wait for his pretty much inevitable explosive days in general.
He is rock bottom with no bid price, and probably available around 40-50p. He is somewhat incorrectly lumped in with the “IPD player” status yet can very easily pop off with 2-3 goals and win. And he looks a real threat, and is creating chances too with an assist last night.
Losing IPD hurts him but not to this extent, it’s very likely he will have his big days over the course of a season, a bit like Rodri. All you have to do it go for it when he is unpopular and then show patience.
Paredes and Verratti are also a good fit for that “Rodri” sort who can occasionally put up a very strong score.
Paredes in particular is looking very dangerous indeed. Over 100 passes more often than not in recent games – elite level baseline play. And with good chances to score in all of the last 4. Looking very likely to win for 30p to 46p.
Many are reluctant to go for these picks but they are no joke – they can deliver a doubling of returns in a single day and on a cheap bid are low risk.
Landing these is the single biggest way we can get short term boosts, even if our overall strategy is more Core player focused I like to mix a few of these in.
A loss to PSG and their form is poor in general. Actually not a bad style for FI, though.
Looking well short of Europa League qualification which hurts them for next season, although possibly increases the likelihood of someone like Gouiri moving on.
Worth touching on this heartbreaking injury for Reine-Adelaide, his second ACL injury in just 14 months. He was only just making his come back and looking really good, on and off FI.
He was showing some excellent FI numbers and there was every reason to go for him. Real bad luck for holders. It happens sometimes. If this could be sold instantly that is the best thing. But as things stand there is little to do other than hold and wait for the recovery, which likely takes 6-10 months.
The one consolation is that even when stuck with an injured yet FI suitable player, it’s not a total wipeout. You still have something people will eventually want to come back to, even if it is going to take a long time.
Still, grim. But I don’t get upset about taking a loss like this though – there were good reasons to go for him at the price and it wasn’t a bad call, injuries just happen.
Gouiri is still generating really good FI numbers. And we’d be seeing that come through more often if Nice were having a better season. It bodes well for the future though and he has the numbers that will make bigger clubs take notice.
He will very likely get links, though it maybe a transfer window too soon given he has just moved. Either way, long term holders have cause to be optimistic he’s looking really good.
Surprising loss to Montpellier for Lyon given their excellent form recently.
Paqueta continues his redemption, another goal here. Should have had 2, actually. One of his poorer overall games with Lyon struggling but this is yet more evidence that he is now a contender, probably around level although lack of Europa/CL involvement hurts for this season.
That won’t be a problem next campaign though. Given he is just 44p to 63p… he could win before this season is out and that might surprise some who are used to his underperformance at Milan. Good pick.
Depay quiet for this one, no chances at all. Form in general is good. At £1.58 to £1.77 he’s value, both for win potential this season and because he’s likely to get a good move at the same time he’ll be in demand for Euro 2020.
Ekambi was very dangerous here with 4 attempts, on another day a brace was on the cards here. He has been lumped in with the “IPD striker” crowd and is rock bottom by now – but that’s not the case. He’s a capable winner and I’d see him producing 5-7 competitive scores a season.
33p to 47p is a real bargain, particularly if planning to hold him into the next campaign when Lyon should be in Europe. And it’s possible to pick up a win along the way. Underestimated.
Aouar not far off the scoresheet either with 5 attempts. A capable winner with a big transfer likely. Good pick.
Lyon will rue all these missed chances yesterday. Brest next up may be a good chance to make amends.
11 February
A new IPO today at AZ. And he has some amazing headline stats behind him that hint at strong FI suitability.
At times you think it looks like the baseline of Kroos with the goal threat of Immobile. Then you see that a lot of the goals are penalties and free kicks, which takes a bit of the shine off.
Plus Eredivisie stats tend to make players look a little bit better than they are.
However, Koopmeiners looks very suitable for FI and I’d back him at a decent club.
The only issue is perhaps the starting price, I think FI have inflated this to account for the penalties which he is unlikely to get straight away at any new club.
And people could use these stats to get themselves all hot under the collar if they aren’t careful.
£1.09 is not outrageous but then with AZ out of the Europa and Summer transfers a way off… I wonder whether it might be worth waiting for any hype to die down and going in with a lower bid a few weeks from now.
1 February
Explosion Imminent!
Players by position showing exceptional performance strength in recent games
Defenders
- Theo Hernandez - AC Milan
- Achraf Hakimi - Inter
- Angelino - RB Leipzig
- Raphael Guerreiro - Dortmund
- Jordi Alba - Barcelona
- Juan Cuadrado - Juventus
- Trent Alexander-Arnold - Liverpool
- Joao Cancelo - Manchester City
- Oleksandr Zinchenko - Manchester City
- Marcus Alonso - Chelsea
- Cesar Azpilicueta - Chelsea
- Harry Maguire - Manchester United
- Luke Shaw - Manchester United
Midfielders
- Leandro Paredes - PSG
- Alejandro Gomez - Sevilla
- Toni Kroos - Real Madrid
- Bruno Fernandes - Manchester United
- Mason Mount - Chelsea
- Mateo Kovacic - Chelsea
- Hakan Calhanoglu - AC Milan
- Marcel Sabitzer - RB Leipzig
- Jadon Sancho - Borussia Dortmund
Forwards
- Thomas Muller - Bayern Munich
- Robert Lewandowski - Bayern Munich
- Lionel Messi - Barcelona
- Lorenzo Insigne - Napoli
- Callum Hudson-Odoi - Chelsea
- Marco Asensio - Real Madrid
- Federico Chiesa - Juventus
- Antoine Griezmann - Barcelona